tl;dr at the bottom, as usual.
Okay, I am a bit delayed. This said, most of what I do and would want to say has been covered extensively.
However, one thing I didn't see highlighted all that much is the fact that several people (notably, myself and Kiyoko, but also Sammiya and some others) found Tiki's first lengthy post to be scummy. In particular, both myself and Kiyoko, the established town, replied right after
this with comments of getting strange vibes and being concerned.
Everyone that has played with Tiki knows he's a mixed bag. You never know exactly what to expect. However, in this situation he already had two cleared players on his case. At the time, the only vote on him was from high seraph, who promptly unvoted following Tiki's post. On the next page, Sammiya put the first vote on him citing similar vibes to both myself and Kiyoko. Ezz then followed up citing gut reasons as well.
This leads us into the post that Kiyoko bookmarked, when Tiki replied while he was at 2 votes to Aeiou's 3. So far the only marks against Tiki had mostly been "gut reads" and "vibes", with some mentions directed to his questionable statements regarding both players and passing/math.
In this bookmarked post, I'd like to highlight:
Tiki the Troll wrote:First though, most inclined to vote Vowels or Chinomi. Vowels strictly out of self preservation, making it harder to get me at the top, or tied for the top, heh.
Chinomi because I prefer to leave these sorts of mysteries up to RNG, and that would tie her with Vowels.
He, of course, never voted. The final vote tally was (lifted this from Cure, I think):
► Kiyoko - ezzelin -> drandahl -> Chinomi
► Luxaria - Chinomi
► Entelechy - Tiki
► Tiki The Troll - DIDN'T VOTE
► Rasei - Vowels
► Cure - Vowels
► Cur3/T3tsuya - DIDN'T FUCKING VOTE BECAUSE HE'S A NERD
► High Seraph - Tiki -> Vowels
► Sammiya - Tiki
► Aeiou - No lynch
► Chinomi - Tiki
► ezzelin - Tiki
► Drandahl - Tet
The third vote on Tiki came from chinomi. Her reasoning:
chinomi wrote:vote: tiki because i don't wanna no-lynch and i honestly dont find no lynches scummy these days so im not really willing to vote aeiou gomen tiki
The final vote, as we know, was from Duck.
The reason I highlight these ~vibes~ is because they produce an interesting scenario where mafia might be inclined to bus Tiki since several confirmed town are on his case, in addition to possibly some others. As Kiyoko concluded, however, I would find it unlikely for Sammiya to be mafia and immediately shift attention back onto Tiki right after Lucas unvoted him. Even with Kiyoko and myself mentioning Tiki seeming scummy, we hadn't voted for him.
Ezz's vote thereafter is an interesting one to me. Ezz is in this situation where several people commented on how doing the math doesn't necessarily clear you, but it does make it look like you're contributing and being proactive. Ezz also decided to vote for Tiki instead of Duck, saying they'd like for Duck to explain their process. At one point, I believe at least Cure mentioned she'd find it unlikely for two mafia to both be commenting on the numbers in thread (ezz and Duck). I think I am inclined to agree, but there were a few occasions where Duck and Aeiou both seemed to run afoul of the mechanics (passing, everyone is vanilla, etc.). Is this a weird coincidence tied in with ezz not wanting to vote on Duck right away? I think it's probably so, and I'm not suspicious of ezz right now.
The Tiki, chinomi, and Aeiou stand-off is particularly intriguing to me for all of the reasons Kiyoko has previously mentioned. Notably, if Aeiou is truly town, then it is advantageous to try and push for a lynch onto someone else. I guess if you think you're a vanilla town and others are not... but, again, Kiyoko pointed out the seeming fatalistic tendencies even after it was explained that everyone is vanilla. chinomi did vote Tiki, but her reasoning was structured around not wanting to vote for Aeiou, seemingly because "I don't find no lynches scummy these days", which is what several people noted as being scummy about Aeiou.
So to that end:
@ chinomi:Was there any reason you did not want to vote on Aeiou in particular? What made you choose Tiki over her?
This... this is going to be a rare thing, but this post of mine is a bit inconclusive. The situation surrounding various players is a bit bizarre. I am willing to entertain the idea that mafia would employ an early bus strategy of Tiki with suspicions on him, but to do so I believe it'd mean either ezz or chinomi is mafia. But, I also think this evidence is weak, and I find chinomi suspicious due to circumstance, whereas ezz has been contributing.
I also agree that there is probably a kingpin mafia that instructed Tiki to post up. This does point fingers towards drandahl, high seraph, and Tet/Cur3. I... I think Tet's previous, ahem, experiences with Tiki would make him be
explicitly clear that Tiki's first post was not an acceptable "hi I'm here" kind of post, which makes me favor drandahl or high seraph as kingpin.
I agree that lynching one of those possible kingpins, chinomi, or vowels would help shed light on the situation. I'm not sure how to read Duck in all of this. He seems earnest, but my read has shifted back and forth. Vowels' flip will help solidify Duck's alignment a little bit more in that regard.
The biggest puzzle piece for me right now: A lot of these potential mafia candidates seem to be unaware of various aspects of the rules. As I think I previously highlighted, I don't know how to process this. I tend to expect mafia to be aware of the rules and structure of the game, especially since there are multiple of them and they can clue one another in. Cure makes a good point that being uncertain of how passing mechanics work is more than a little damning given the constraints upon this game.
Uhhh...
tl;dr: Tiki had early suspicions on him after his first full-fledged post. Could this have influenced mafia's hand? Sammiya's first vote on him suggests town alignment. Aeiou's alignment flip would help clarify a lot of the situation for both sides of the vote. I agree that there is probably a mafia kingpin that prodded Tiki into posting. I am less-inclined to think it is Tet of the three candidates (high seraph, drandahl, and Tet/Cur3) given that I believe he would take more control over Tiki's post. I could be wrong on this, however.
I didn't really say all that much, I guess. I agree with a lot of what has been said by Kiyoko and Cure. Five minutes to rollover, I guess.