Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

I haven't caught up. Passed to Sammie. vote: drandahl

Am now caught up. Thank you for not passing to 10, Sammie.

1 - vowels
2 - ezzelin
3 - ???
4 - Not Cure
5 - Not Tet
6 - Not Lucas, Blaire
7 - Not Tet
8 - Rasei
9 - Sammie
10 - Definitely Not Someone We Know
11 - ???
12 - tiki
13 -???


3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 13


Luxaria
Entelechy
Cure
T3tsuya (I have this one narrowed down to four numbers, but I can't reveal mine, so)
High Seraph
Blaire
Drandahl

zzz is this accurate?

vote:Lucas, for now, while I collect my thoughts.

I prepped to pass to 9 last night.

Edit: No. Actually. Why not vote: Blaire while I collect my thoughts, while I still can. Would be a shame to miss out on the apparent trend.

Probably won't keep my vote there.

Vote: drandahl


I'm fine with either drandahl or Lucas being lynched first but drandahl has more votes on him so might as well.

'blinks slowly at ninja-post

I'm curious why everyone opted to pass to 9 when I made it pretty explicit that 9 was not a guaranteed safe number. I understand my pass and to some extent I understand Lux's pass but...?

That said, since this is the second night where it's likely that Lux/Kiyo sent a pass to Sammie who sent it to the benched player, I'd like to make a special request.

Sammie, please pass to an unknown number. Best case scenario, everyone survives and we might be able to use your pass claim to get info. Worst case scenario, at least a cleared town doesn't die.

For everyone else in town besides Luxaria, it also benefits town as a whole if you pass to an unknown number. It reduces the chance of a town we have information on dying, and if you are not a cleared town then worst case scenario, you dying helps thread narrow down the maf faster.

I know that's a really selfish ask for me to make given my situation in this game, but I'd like to ask regardless. Thanks!

You kind of excused my own pass, but just to answer anyway:

I actually thought about it a lot before I passed. I knew I could not pass to 8, since that was Rasei*, nor 10 for the obvious reason. No other numbers were cleared after running down the list. Since the odds were still high that you or myself would be the NK, I didn't want to pick a number at random and then accidentally hit a mafia and die without being able to say anything. I figured the longer the definitively cleared town can stay in the game, the better.

There's a bit more to it than that, as well as some complicated considerations (read: a scenario in which, say, Sammiya or yourself got served to and then you passed to my number at random, in which case I'd rather put it on a number I believe more likely to be town on the off-chance I hit a spiker, but also just to confirm that this number/player is/was town).

But you are correct, it might not necessarily be a safe number. It just seemed safest given the NK with regards to the two of us.

That said, do you think Rasei was served to directly, or did it again bounce onto another player and then onto Rasei? I could sort of see mafia aiming for Rasei in this case given your previous comments towards her, which might suggest she'd be more likely to probe out with her pass than the two of us.

Otherwise, I do agree that town in general would benefit more if people spread their passes.

* Edit: Reason being that I figured that if, for example, I got served and sent it to Rasei, that is then making it so she could pass to a mafia and die, or pass to me in a probe and then I'd die. Passing it to a non-confirmed town adds a bit of a buffer from my perspective, at least if  the objective is to preserve confirmed town as long as possible. She could have passed to a random town, true. But with 4 out of 8 options being mafia or me, if we figured that Rasei would not pass to Kiyoko given the previous request, it seemed too risky to pass right to her.

C☆☆☆ wrote:Looks at you very sternly. For someone who has been hanging (exclusively) onto Kiyo's every action and word this game, you seem to miss a lot of the things she says.

I freely admit I don't catch everything. I have been searching through the archives and I still can't find the posts you've referenced.

I've noticed that aside from me, AEIOU was one of the most recent players to join. Do you make a habit of going hard on new people, or is it just in this game in particular?

Now, I am tired of you saying demonstrably untrue thing about me, and when I demonstrate said things to be untrue, you accuse me of over-defending.

So I am not going to bite my tongue any more. Bring what you got, I'll shoot it down. If you bench me, well, you've wasted a lynch on a townie but at least I will have set a precedent that I will defend myself when I am town.

In regard to your current claims that I've "been hanging (exclusively) onto Kiyo's every action and word," I've already disproved this one. I've already given you a list of all the times I've referenced Kiyoko, and its not at all impressive (post 370). Go back a few pages and check and see. Second of all, Kiyoko has made the longest, most extensive, and most frequent posts that summarize what everyone else has said, and, you know, actually cites specific evidence, unlike have done towards me. So if I do cite her more frequency than others, it just comes down to her having more content to cite.

And I want to make clear I have no problems with people making accusations against me at all (that's half the game), what bothers me is you making unflattering exaggerations about me (again, exaggerations that can easily be proved to be such), and then either ignoring me when I respond or claiming my disproving your claims is being over-defending.

That, to me, seems scummy, but I've been too afraid of you to say anything.

But you want to come at me again, feel free. Just bring evidence, and don't use hyperbole, or I will wreck your arguments.


Now, Cure, I'm sure you want to use this post against me, so here is the best explanation for me making this post that I can think of: That I would be trying to bus myself to save a more experience mafia person. But that doesn't exactly make sense, because if I were maf (pro tip: I'm not), as soon as I flipped as such you'd know Dranbahl had to be maf too, or else why would I be defending him, so you'd lynch him the following day phase. Adn I can't possibly think that anyone but Dranbahl is being lynched tonight, given that he already has four votes on him (mine included). Trying to bus myself would buy him a day (again, if I were mafia, but I'm not). That's the logic I can see, but maybe you can carry it farther.

Oh wait, I can. I might be trying to delay High Seraph from being lynched, too, (who I think is the next most likely candidate to be lynched after Dranbahl I think), and keep those veteran mafia in longer.

But even that is a Bad Plan, because I would have to believe that I am the most likely candidate to be lynched after those two (and last time I checked, I'm not). I would have to be totally sure that I would be the person who would be lynched after those two, otherwise I am throwing away any mafia chance of a win.

Of course, I might just have made this post to say that, to throw suspicion off me, but I haven't exactly been under heat from anyone other than Cure in days. So I think I've really just increased my chance of getting lynched with this post, and hurt the town's odds of winning by increasing the odds of the town wasting a lynch on me.

But this is my first game, and I'd like to set a precedent for myself as someone who stands up to accusations, especially when they are without meaningful evidence. And if I need to be mis-lynched to set that precedent, so be it.


So, Cure, next time you feel posting that I'm scummy, I would recommend you look at my posts 112 and 115, where I drew some demonstrably wrong conclusions about the implications of the statistics I did, that would have benefited the mafia greatly. I can't defend myself against those because I just simply made a mistake, and drew the wrong conclusions (or right conclusions, were I mafia (again, I am not)).

This looks particularly bad because it was ezzelin who pointed out my errors, and he was the next night kill.

I would likely counter this argument by bringing up posts 141 and 183, in which I was the one who realized/showed that we have a higher chance of spiking the ball by passing to safe numbers. I would also admit my error in 112 and 115, and say the wrong logic fork I followed was failing to realize A) shooting to safe numbers increased chance of spiking, and B) that Town folks shouldn't place self-preservation as a priority. If you take those assumptions, my logic does follow.

I would also place on you the burden of proof of showing how I possibly could have thought the reasoning I presented could have fooled any of you. In retrospect, it is clearly so badly wrong. Ah, but to that you could counter that if I fooled myself with it, then why wouldn't I think it would fool others?

That's something I would have a hard time defending myself against. And right now I can't at the moment. So please, if you want to attack me other something, attack me over something reasonable, like this.


Oh yeah, I never took apart you finding it suspicious that I would miss one of Kiyoko's posts. I got distracted.

Basically, you are accusing me of human error. I clearly missed a few posts, that is not a fact in contention. It would be pure error, a failure to keep up with a thread that gets about a hundred posts a day.

What is in contention is whether I am A) more likely to have missed those posts as a townie, or B) as Mafia.

So, you would, I suppose, be reasoning that if I were Mafia, I wouldn't be as concerned with safe numbers to pass to, because I don't need to pass. I just skimmed it, going "This isn't important."

Whereas as a townie, I know that passing correctly is a matter of life and death, and clearly I would want to keep up on those posts, there would be literally nothing more important, and I would have immediately keyed in on any speculation regarding safe numbers to pass to.

Yet, you claim that I have been following Kiyoko (and only Kiyoko) religiously, because I am hiding my own lack of insight in her shadow (actually, I've been hiding from you, personally, not because I am mafia, but because I didn't want to hurt the town my having you drive a witch-hunt to mis-lynch me). If I were mafia, and if this were my survival strategy, then I I would be just as invested in keeping up to date with Kiyoko's posts about lynch numbers as I am as a townie.

You would have a stronger argument if you didn't portray me as an "exclusive" devotee of Kiyoko. Because, as mentioned, it is only suspicious if I assigned the post a low priority because it was about safe pass numbers, theoretically irrelevent as a mafia. But the stronger the connection you imply I have with Kiyoko, less sense it makes for me to assign those posts low salience, and the more it seems like a total fluke that I entirely missed some posts. Which can happen to either side. My god, its after 4am.


OMG, I just spend 45 minutes doing more math about the next night pass, only to realize I failed to take into account that we were going to lynch someone tonight. I am so tired. Its after 4am. I am going to bed. ... And I just accidentally deleted all that work instead of saving it.

I think the Gist of it is that we should try to keep Kiyoko alive by everyone passing to ourselves, except Kiyoko, who should pass to an educated guess of a non-mafia person. That does not diminish our chance of a spiker, and gives Kiyoko by far the highest chance of staying alive. I think. I AM BAD AT MATH AT ALMOST 5AM.

Oh yeah: vote: drandahl

Responding to Kiyoko's post that was made since I started to write this: I passed to 9 because I totally missed those posts, and I still can't find them. Could you please give me post numbers?

Kiyoko wrote:

So let's talk about some things.

The Night 0 pass order

I'm pretty sure that I was the spiker. That means #9 is the number we're not sure is safe. For what it's worth, I'm somewhat inclined to believe #9 is town anyway, because based on conversation in thread, it seemed likely that at least one of the cleared town would pass to #9, and so if #9 were maf, passing to a clear town in hopes that they pass to #9 would be a good way to get them out.

From that one long post I made on D2 after Lux, Rasei and I figured out the N0 pass order. It did kind of pagebottom so I don't blame people for missing it but I did kinda hope people read it anyway since it was long.

also re: Cure

She is this aggressive about everyone, not just the new players. She's the type where, if she finds someone suspicious, she'll push it hard. A few other people (myself, Luxaria, Tet) are the same way. So yeah rest assured that it's not any sort of personal/hazing thing and just keep doing what you're doing making points and citing posts and stuff. But y'know like, get some sleep and stuff too (I say, at 2:00am with no plans to go to bed)

Editing after the fact to add headers to make this post easier to read.

Reasoning for my pass last night

Casual double post to add that my reasoning for passing to 9 is partially the exact same reason as Luxaria (high chance I'd get served to, so rather than passing to Rasei and making it more likely for Rasei to get out, I'd rather pass to someone I think is town but is not confirmed yet)

Also because I have passed to 9 every night so far because I am devoted to my ships.

Who did maf serve to?

e: Oh yeah and I forgot to answer Lux's question. I think it's a pretty sure thing that maf passed to one of the clears, but as for whether they went straight for Rasei in a bid to take out at least one clear town, or for one of us in which case the pass went you/me -> Sammie -> Rasei (not spiker), I'm not actually sure.

I want to say that given the odds, if maf served directly to Rasei, Rasei is about as likely to pass to another town as she is to maf and so the likelihood of Rasei dying on a serve is fairly low

However, given that we've been consistently passing to town (as far as we can tell), there's even less of a chance of one of us dying if maf serves to us than Rasei dying if maf serves to Rasei.

So it's just a matter of, is maf observant enough to realize this or not? Given our maf candidates? I have no clue man

Caveat about Sammie

Disclaimer: There's technically no guarantee that Sammie is 9 or even town, but as this seems the most likely explanation, and because Sammie has yet to give any sort of indication that our reasoning is wrong (she can't claim and may not even be able to go "No I'm not 9" but I feel like if something was off, Sammie would've said something like "Your theory isn't exactly correct" by now, and if Sammie were #9 and maf then me or Lux would probably be dead by now) I am largely inclined to think Sammie is 9 and town.

Thought on Rasei's pass target

e2: Just a thought that occurred to me. If maf served to Rasei and Rasei passed to maf and died, then based off what I know about Rasei's personality, I highly doubt she passed to any given number twice in the game, so at the very least I don't think Rasei passed to #3 last night.

Kiyoko wrote:I want to say that given the odds, if maf served directly to Rasei, Rasei is about as likely to pass to another town as she is to maf and so the likelihood of Rasei dying on a serve is fairly low

However, given that we've been consistently passing to town (as far as we can tell), there's even less of a chance of one of us dying if maf serves to us than Rasei dying if maf serves to Rasei.

I should seriously be asleep, but this was something else I considered. If you and I are consistently passing to town, if #9 is town, then that makes Rasei a more attractive target. She would be more likely to kill herself on a mafia than us, at least. Which may have happened.

I think I said some of this in my last post. Too tired to check, tbh, will browse the thread more in the morning. Just posting to give you re-affirmation and love since we need to stick together with 1/3 of the gang now gone. But, really, I just wanted to post because I watched two episodes of the second season and Hitoka is basically me irl.

that's all

Long reply. I'm focusing less on your central hypothesis here, and more trying to address each point directly, with more information (because I think that's more useful overall). Really, I'll admit to not taking as much initiative in-spec as some other players this game.

Also, wow, was not expecting to be snaked by so many long posts so late at night.

Kiyoko wrote:Oh fucking boy, it's time. Let's look at all of drandahl's posts before I called him out for not participating.

Hypothesis: drandahl has not been taking any initiative to post his own thoughts and has only been replying to direct questions or saying some variant of "I agree" without explicitly pointing out what he's agreeing with.

drandahl wrote:I'll agree to the spec so far, and assume that Lux, Kiyo and Rasei, are all Town. I'm getting a very pro-town read from both Lucas and Cure♀ as well, mainly due to their level of involvement in spec. I'm feeling less so on Cure♂, ez, Tiki, (and I fall into this bucket as well). There are others playing of course, but I haven't personally exhaustively spec'd yet.

I'm placing a vote: T3t, HOWEVER: Considering the currently established town-y players, I will freely change my vote if any of Lux, Kiyo, or Rasei suggest an alternative.

drandahl has consistently been putting himself in the "possibly suspicious" bucket all game. This is the first example of this. I'm glad you agree with the rest of thread that nobody, including yourself, finds your behavior particularly pro-town.

Kiyo... not sure if you have an actionable point here. Yeah, I'm openly admitting a certain level of hypocrisy, but my main point here is an early stab at expressing where I'm at at this point in the game. Still, not a big contribution to spec, because other players expressed similar reads on some of these players by this point. So, I'll at least agree, I missed out on the initiative here.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Regarding the T3t vote, I was willing to move my vote if given instruction by an established town. I mentioned this up front so we could coordinate votes comfortably.

And yeah, I know I've been a little quiet so far in terms of actual content. I'm not a person to be overwhelmed by numbers, but I have been too distracted to post a complete list of reads/thoughts on every player right now.

The "Well, Lux/Kiyo/Rasei didn't tell me who to vote so I didn't change my vote" thing rubs me the wrong way. Like, a lot.

Fair. I was curious how that would be received. I haven't had many games so far with hard-confirmed town on D1, and I wanted to utilize that in some way.

I understand that it's off-putting because if anyone does suggest I vote a certain way, and I go with that, it's almost like I lose ownership of my vote. This, I do understand, establishes a really weird scummy isolation from vote-related spec.

I still stand by my vote on T3t at that time given the information I had at that time. I don't feel the same way right now given a more complete picture.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Didn't think about this until now, but wouldn't that be a stupid way for mafia to scum themselves up?

In the immortal paraphrased words of our alcalyte, doing something stupid and being mafia are not mutually exclusive.

Never said they weren't. But we can't ignore what would probably be something obvious to a panel of mafia. It's nearly always good to not catch weird limelight as mafia, and claiming to have prepped a pass to a confirmed mafia jersey is enough for some discussion at least.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Sure, IF town passed to 12. But nobody (except mafia) knows who is safe for town to pass to. I get your reasoning here. It's...

Case 1.
Dran is mafia, AND Dran decided to claim a Tiki(#12) pass...
...what's the probability of this?

Case 2.
Dran is town, AND Dran decided to pick #12 to pass, AND the ball never got to Dran...
...what's the probability of this?

I can see which feels more likely at first. However, I did claim kind of late, after there was already some suspicion on Tiki, I think? I'd have to go back and check.

This was the post that rang major alarm bells for Ezz and Ezz has good intuition so I'mma drop this here.

Ezz didn't even address my point here. I wasn't prompting anyone to completely answer the question of probability. I could have done that myself (because I also like math!). My point was more to express that I thought I knew I thought Raie was coming from, and address that there's something she might not have taken into account (in particular that people were already wary of Tiki by the time I had claimed to have prepped a pass to his jersey number). I've went back, and confirmed that there was suspicion on him by this point.

ezzelin wrote:and I'm posting percentages because some have been posted by entelechy which weren't entirely accurate, and math is My Thing. and it actually would have been helpful, if it wasn't for the thing I mentioned in my last post, which I haven't actually realised until now cause I got immersed in math. because math is My Thing.

ezzelin wrote:...paired with the whole "what's the probability of this". yeah, I did answer that, but frankly probability doesn't answer literally anything in his case.

I honestly think Ezz missed my point here. I wasn't directly asking for probabilities, so please be careful there. She did make other points too, unrelated to this post, and I'd be happy to chat around those as well.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:I'm more likely to trust and Sammiya, Ez. True, Vowels could be another maf, but both Sammiya and Ez had other options for a second lynch candidate (myself included).

Still not sure how to feel about Vowel's sustained No Lynch.

Parroting

Wasn't intentional, but no way to prove that. So, fair comment, and I'll have no rebuttal if you press farther.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:I didn't have completely strong reasons for voting T3t. He wasn't as active as usual, and that surprised me. Something about his posts threw me off, but that's more of a soft read. It was D1, and there wasn't much to go off of yet, but I also didn't feel comfortable contributing to the primary lynch candidates at that time.

Nothing deeper than that.

Also, my inaction was very bad for Mafia (unless Vowels is also mafia and T3t isn't, in which case, sure, I could have tried to start a campaign to mislynch).

This is what i mean by noncommittal

Okay, I see what you mean. Yes, I operated outside of the primary lynch candidates during D1. Though while we're here, again, I could have pulled a lynch off of Tiki much earlier on if I was mafia (safely onto vowels, or Lucas, if he's town).

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:I've been mainly responding to concerns on me.

case in point re: not taking initiative in thread

Fair. No rebuttal here, and you make a useful point.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Feigning ignorance could also be a mafia tactic, at least early on. It kind of catches eyes, which does put some people in the limelight, but that's a little easier to address than "Person voted X on D1" or "Person did not say much." I don't think it's always a good tactic, but I've seen a few players act this way before as mafia, and it's worked for them.

This is answering Duck's question and not directly spec, but it's interesting in light of the fact that Aeiou was one of our primary confused people and flipped town.

Not sure what you're implying here, exactly. Are you suggesting I was trying to throw scum on Vowels? I later expressed directly how I felt about her (didn't necessarily feel she was maf), and about lynching her (sure, for information).
 

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Probably town:

► Cure
  Has been very town-focused this game. Has not pushed conversation to lynch particular players as much as she has in the past. Could be trying to look less aggressive than usual, but I'll assume she's town for now.

If drandahl is trying to say this is him throwing some shade on Raie then he probably shouldn't have ended it with "I'll assume she's town" tbh. For what it's worth, though this is tangential to the point, if Raie is mafia she's doing a great job of throwing her teammates under the bus. That said, why do you think "assume Raie is town" personally? I have my reasons, Luxaria has her reasons, the rest of thread is likely following the two of us re: our reads on Raie, so are you also playing follow the leader or?

I had no vote-related reasons for trusting her, and no vote-related reasons to distrust her. Nevertheless, her town-beneficial devotion to spec and driving conversation was strong enough that I felt comfortable leaning town until forced to do so otherwise. I honestly feel like this has been obvious enough this game that it's not a "follow the leader" scenario, but more of a "this is an obvious observation, and it's not unreasonable that I share this perspective with other players" scenario.

My personal, more detailed list though:
--Asked for USEFUL clarification from Coach early on
--Been pushing for discussion early in phase (and frequently commenting on who has/hasn't voted or posted)
--Has guided discussion via expressing which votes she thinks is odd
--Been actively providing very detailed thoughts per player
--Been pushing for information, not bloodthirsty for a particular lynch
I'm certain some of this overlaps with comments already posted in this 41 page game, but maybe not to this detail or voiced in the same way. If you still think I'm still parroting here, then you'll also have to assume I'm going through a hell of a lot of trouble synthesizing viewpoints.

I know there's been commentary around how if she was mafia, she would have been bussing her comrades hard. This is true with tiki in D1, and definitely true if Lucas is mafia. I'll likely trust Raie for the rest of the game if Lucas flips maf, because I don't think she would invest twofold on a bussing strategy.

I definitely don't think she's a good lynch candidate then or now, but in case we get to an "everyone feels town" state later on in the game, I wanted to voice some odd reads I did get.

I would be pretty entertained if there's a very unique and one-time mafia gambit with Raie, T3t, Tiki, and some other player (who is not Lucas). I think Raie has been the biggest early T3t supporter:
"um... fwiw I know Tet hasn't been paying any attention to the game (UNLESS HE'S BEEN LYING TO ME WHICH HE MIGHT BE BECAUSE HE IS A KNOWN LIAR) and I feel like he wouldn't be that irresponsible if he were mafia."
"As captain of the Dylan/Lucas/Tet is maf ship, I think tet is the LEAST likely to be maf of the three of them, simply because he tends to take charge when he's mafia, and I cannot believe for a second that he'd let Tiki run rampant in the thread like he did, and I also think he'd try to pay attention to the game a little bit more than he has been if he was mafia."
That said, this feels MUCH LESS LIKELY to me than other scenarios. If we wind up lynching Lucas and he flips town, I'll revisit this and a couple of other ideas personally.

tl;dr for others, I still think Raie is town, and feel other options are possible but less likely.

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:► Sammiya
  Sammy was the first to maintain her vote on Tiki.
If Aeiou is maf, then Sammy had many more options to choose from to draw attention from Aeiou (Ez, myself, or any new candidate). If Aeiou is town, Sammy would have no reason to start Tiki as a second lynch candidate, unless we assume a bussing strategy. For now, I'm feeling town on Sammy.

► Chinomi Mr. Alice
  Brought votes to tie (Aeiou)->(Tiki, Aeiou) D1. If Aeiou is town, then I'm viewing Blairomi as town, until I have reason to believe a bussing strategy.

► Entelechy
  New to the forum (welcome again!). Locked lynch on Tiki. If Aeiou flips town, I'll trust Enteduck is town. If Aeiou flips maf, I just don't know. Will need to re-read her post when she voted.

These are also exactly in line with one of my earlier posts.

I'm not surprised. I built most things in this post off of Rasei's vote timeline alone without completely backreading that phase, so I think they're shared observations. That said, I can't prove that, so I have nothing as rebuttal if you choose to dig deeper. And certainly you're right in that it didn't bring any change in spec.
 

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:► Aeiou
  I'm really not reading maf on Aeiou yet, but I'm fine with a lynch to gain more info. Yeah, I didn't know how to interpret her sustained NL at first, but as weird as it is for me, it doesn't read as scummy.

Congrats here is one piece of spec that isn't directly parroting someone else in the thread, though this is also not explained. What were your thought on Aeiou doing the whole "wait we're all vanilla????" thing?

Yep, could have dug deeper here. Again, at that time I wasn't sure how to interpret it. It didn't feel completely scummy because it would have been a strange action, maf or town. So it just felt... weird, overall.

Diving deeper, it would have been strange for town since it's so early and sustained, and this is an all-vanilla game, so we need more info (especially when we can't make direct observations around intended NK targets).

It would have been strange as mafia because it immediately puts that player in the spotlight.

Re: "wait we're all vanilla????"... I felt like the timing was strange. It raised some suspicion for me, but I also am not yet familiar with vowels as a player, so I was willing to give her a little benefit of doubt.
 

Kiyoko wrote:

drandahl wrote:Would be more comfortable lynching:

► Cur3/T3tsuya
  Little info on T3t. I'd trust he's been busy irl. I'd be comfortable lynching, mainly due to process of elimination reasoning. Will want to re-read his recent posts this phase.

► High Seraph
  First to vote Tiki, but he unvoted. Voted Aeiou to bring us from (Tiki, Aeiou)->(Aeiou). He did put together a useful graph, but that's not sustained enough of an effort to completely clear him for me. I'm more comfortable lynching him over other players.

► Drandahl
  Make sure to drink your Ovaltine.

I'm fine with a Vowels lynch for information, but to make this phase slightly more interesting.... Vote: High Seraph

What is up with you and Lucas going "oh Tet isn't around" he's been around a fucking lot in these recent phases and has been posting more spec than the two of you combined. The only thing that throws a wrench into the possible Lucas and drandahl are both maf theory is the vote on Lucas which, if they're both maf, could easily have backfired.

drandahl wrote:Though if T3t really was busy outside of the game, I could picture a busy T3t not-so-kingpin.

Or I can picture a lack of Kingpin, but general community maf suggestions for Tiki to post.

drandahl wrote:@Avy: I wanted to lynch Vowels for information. But I also wanted to allow another lynch candidate to not waste the phase on a quiet lynch. In the end, didn't really do anything.

I wasn't going to be around to change my vote to Vowels near the end of phase, so I switched in advance to still pin the lynch.

@Raie: Lucas and T3t are currently top of my list (for reasons of "least de-scummed"). I'd be comfortable lynching either.

drandahl wrote:Also, I think I feel pretty much the same way about T3t right now as Lucas. That said, I still am holding out some concern for Lucas as well.

Surprised you didn't mention anything about me, Lucas, considering there's been a lot of Lucas/T3t/Dran combinations floating around.

These three posts explain nothing about what you actually think about the lucas/drandahl/tet thing except that you seem to agree with some nebulous people and don't actually state the points you agree with.

Lumping these together.
I've missed some of T3t's recent spec, and while the likeliness to Raie's name and profile picture isn't helping me catch his posts when scanning, it's my fault for not taking the time to tease the two apart. Also, early on I was more concerned about involvement level in the game relative to how he's acted in previous games... I was less trying to say "He has not posted anything of worth."

At this point now that Vowels has flipped town, I think my only reason for still thinking T3t is a viable lynch candidate is based around a reasoning of "Ignoring a potential maf bus strategy, he's one of the only ones left not cleared by voting patterns or game mechanics." Lucas, myself, and Raie also share this quality, and it's specifically this kind of reasoning is what I'm agreeing with. For the record, of these candidates, my lynch order would be

Lucas
T3t
reconsider spec, maybe revisit Sammiya, Chinomi/Blaire, Duck
Raie

Still reading though T3t's and Lucas's posts, reviewing their votes, and reviewing how Tiki interacted with them. But for now, I'm feeling most strongly on a vote: Lucas.

However. I'm going to drop this now and pick it up again tomorrow before I become completely nocturnal.

fffFFFFFCUK WHY DID RASEI HAVE TO DIE AND WHY DID SHE HAVE TO BE NUMBER 8

i passed to #7 last night because i wanted to start making the ONLY NUMBER JOKE I KNOW but since i cant pass to 8 anymore, then, well, sobs

but i guess this was good because i didnt know there were some numbers not to pass to? so i guess i dodged a bullet there :'(

also wow the posts on this page...kinda giving me a little more to think on, huh...

K. So there was so much talking while I was asleep. This is probably going to be long. I'm going down the page and addressing things as I see them so I don't miss anything, so this'll probably be stream of consciousness-esque.

Kiyo wrote:I'm curious why everyone opted to pass to 9 when I made it pretty explicit that 9 was not a guaranteed safe number. I understand my pass and to some extent I understand Lux's pass but...?

I thought this was pretty interesting too. I knew who 8 was, and Rasei had also been very quiet this game, so I decided she was the safest bet for me to pass to last night.

Regarding your request to pass to an unknown number, sorry, but I'm not going to do that. I'd really rather not die. Don't worry, I'm not going to pass to you, though. I'd also ask people not to pass to me, but no one knows my number so... haha... Sammie don't guess my number please you keep benching everyone.

Duck wrote:I freely admit I don't catch everything. I have been searching through the archives and I still can't find the posts you've referenced.

I was going to link the post to you, which I found in about two seconds, but Kiyo quoted it right below you. For what it's worth, I'm just going down the page and addressing things as I read them, rather than reading it all at once.

duck wrote:I've noticed that aside from me, AEIOU was one of the most recent players to join. Do you make a habit of going hard on new people, or is it just in this game in particular?

Nah, I played maf with Vowels on Vdex years ago. I've played a handful of games with her. I found her suspicious and scummy this game, that's all. I find it a little odd that you'd assume I'm "going hard" on you just because you're new. That'd be a very strange criteria for me to base my suspicions on.

duck wrote:Now, I am tired of you saying demonstrably untrue thing about me, and when I demonstrate said things to be untrue, you accuse me of over-defending.

So I am not going to bite my tongue any more. Bring what you got, I'll shoot it down. If you bench me, well, you've wasted a lynch on a townie but at least I will have set a precedent that I will defend myself when I am town.

K. For the record: This is not even me being aggressive. I don't think you want to see me being aggressive, though, so I won't offer to show you. Maybe you're mistaking me for Tet again, his posts are generally way more aggressive than mine.

Duck wrote:In regard to your current claims that I've "been hanging (exclusively) onto Kiyo's every action and word," I've already disproved this one. I've already given you a list of all the times I've referenced Kiyoko, and its not at all impressive (post 370). Go back a few pages and check and see. Second of all, Kiyoko has made the longest, most extensive, and most frequent posts that summarize what everyone else has said, and, you know, actually cites specific evidence, unlike have done towards me. So if I do cite her more frequency than others, it just comes down to her having more content to cite.

To me it's a little odd, because Kiyo is the ONLY person you've been citing frequently, and the ONLY person you've been mentioning. You even tried to point out to me that you were complimenting Kiyo in another thread as if that had any sort of bearing on what's going on in this game. Why haven't you been saying that you'll back up what Lux says (when Lux is also a cleared town and makes extensive posts), or myself (While I'm not cleared, both Lux and Kiyo have been agreeing with/backing up information I've provided, and I've been just as active of the two of them).

You consistently agree with kiyo, and you consistently mention kiyo. It just reeks of "WELL I'M GOING TO FOLLOW WHATEVER THIS CLEARED PLAYER SAYS OR DOES TO ABSOLVE ME OF ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR MY ACTIONS THIS GAME." It also means you don't have to provide any new points of discussion if you just go "well I agree with Kiyo", which, if you'll notice, none of the more active speculators have been doing. We're all forming our own suspicions and opinions, and they all differ slightly from each other. Maybe that's not your intentions, but it's the read I'm getting off of it.

duck wrote:
And I want to make clear I have no problems with people making accusations against me at all (that's half the game), what bothers me is you making unflattering exaggerations about me (again, exaggerations that can easily be proved to be such), and then either ignoring me when I respond or claiming my disproving your claims is being over-defending.

That, to me, seems scummy, but I've been too afraid of you to say anything.

I'm sorry to hear that you think my assessment of your behavior this game is unflattering to your personality. UvU

Duck wrote:
So, Cure, next time you feel posting that I'm scummy, I would recommend you look at my posts 112 and 115, where I drew some demonstrably wrong conclusions about the implications of the statistics I did, that would have benefited the mafia greatly. I can't defend myself against those because I just simply made a mistake, and drew the wrong conclusions (or right conclusions, were I mafia (again, I am not)).

Okay. Please stop using post numbers to reference things you want me to look at. I am not going to dig around in the thread to find them. If you know the post numbers, you obviously  looked at the post to find them. Either link them or quote them and I'll look at them. If you want to put the post number, fine, just turn it into a link since you're already at the post getting the post number.

Also, nowhere am I saying that I think you're mafia because you accidentally posted wrong information. I'm not sure where you're getting this from. You ARE reading my posts, right? Even though I'm not kiyo and thus people don't seem to value my opinion highly? :O

duck wrote:That's something I would have a hard time defending myself against. And right now I can't at the moment. So please, if you want to attack me other something, attack me over something reasonable, like this.

I'm not attacking you. This post is by far the most aggressive I have been towards you this entire game, and even this is not attacking. Have you seen my posts towards Drandahl?

duck wrote:Oh yeah, I never took apart you finding it suspicious that I would miss one of Kiyoko's posts. I got distracted.

I wasn't being literal so much, as finding it amusing that Kiyo seems to be the only person you're listening to this game, yet you missed a Pretty Big Point she made that everyone else seemed to catch.

duck wrote:Yet, you claim that I have been following Kiyoko (and only Kiyoko) religiously, because I am hiding my own lack of insight in her shadow (actually, I've been hiding from you, personally, not because I am mafia, but because I didn't want to hurt the town my having you drive a witch-hunt to mis-lynch me). If I were mafia, and if this were my survival strategy, then I I would be just as invested in keeping up to date with Kiyoko's posts about lynch numbers as I am as a townie.

Lol dude, I'm not sure why you're in such a panic about this. I mostly dropped my suspicions of you when I realized that Drandahl/High Seraph/Tet had to be mafia, and I've been focusing (most of) my attention on that for the last few phases. I don't really even think you're mafia at this point, now that we have more information to go on. Obviously Lucas and Dylan are mafia, so we're going to be lynching them first. While I would like to bench you before Tet because of personal reasons, I'm perfectly content to off the three of them before we follow any more leads.

duck wrote:You would have a stronger argument if you didn't portray me as an "exclusive" devotee of Kiyoko.

Since you seem to like citing things, maybe you could cite for me when you agreed with people who weren't Kiyo, or thought they had good points. It doesn't count if you mention Kiyo in the same sentence. Luxaria perhaps? :3


I don't even find you that suspicious any more, nor do I find this post of yours suspicious, since it's clearly just a byproduct of misinterpreting my playstyle. I'll forgive you for it.

Kiyonko wrote:also re: Cure

She is this aggressive about everyone, not just the new players. She's the type where, if she finds someone suspicious, she'll push it hard. A few other people (myself, Luxaria, Tet) are the same way. So yeah rest assured that it's not any sort of personal/hazing thing and just keep doing what you're doing making points and citing posts and stuff.

<3

---

drandahl wrote:I know there's been commentary around how if she was mafia, she would have been bussing her comrades hard. This is true with tiki in D1, and definitely true if Lucas is mafia. I'll likely trust Raie for the rest of the game if Lucas flips maf, because I don't think she would invest twofold on a bussing strategy.

I know I have a reputation for bussing my teammates to clear myself, but this is not a game where that's a viable or ideal tactic. I stand nothing to gain from, if I'm mafia, literally shoving my entire team out of the school bus and then driving over them while laughing maniacally. I'm neither that cuthroat, nor that careless.

drandahl wrote:I would be pretty entertained if there's a very unique and one-time mafia gambit with Raie, T3t, Tiki, and some other player (who is not Lucas). I think Raie has been the biggest early T3t supporter:

You do realize that one of my earliest posts on D1 was actually casting suspicion on Tet, right? I also pointed out that if someone was pulling strings, it was likely him. Also also, he's still in my suspect list (because process of elimination says SOMEBODY has to be the final mafia member), just below you and Lucas in priority. I think it's really interesting that you're fixating on Tet of all people, consistently. Maybe it's so that when you flip mafia we'll be less likely to go after him if all three of you are mafia? I don't know, but it's very strange.

My supposed defense of Tet is just because I know his personality/playstyle and I think it'd be really weird for him to let Tiki or the other mafia dig their own graves in the thread if there was anything he could do to prevent that. I also think he'd have put more effort into being around on D1, even if he WAS busy, if he were mafia.

If he's mafia it's going to shatter my respect for him into a million irreparable pieces.

drandahl wrote:If we wind up lynching Lucas and he flips town, I'll revisit this and a couple of other ideas personally.

Sorry to let you find out this way, but you're dying before Lucas, buddy.

drandahl wrote:Lumping these together.
I've missed some of T3t's recent spec, and while the likeliness to Raie's name and profile picture isn't helping me catch his posts when scanning, it's my fault for not taking the time to tease the two apart. Also, early on I was more concerned about involvement level in the game relative to how he's acted in previous games... I was less trying to say "He has not posted anything of worth."

JUST BECAUSE WE'RE BOTH GRUMPY AND ANGRY AND CONDESCENDING TO ALL OF YOU, DOESN'T MEAN YOU CAN USE "well I thought Tet was Raie" AS AN EXCUSE. You should be aware of who is authoring the post you're reading, there is no excuse. NO EXCUSE.

Also you're mafia so I'm not sure why I'm arguing with you about why you find me scummy.