Laughing Among the Crying Wolves [OVER - MAFIA WIN]

phase end. rollover will be up shortly.

shrine guardian ezz wrote: Aeiou was lynched. They were Town. They were looking for someone.

NO.

NO.

NO.

MY WAIFU.

BOTAN NO.

PEONY PLS.

Damnit.

KHSADFLKAFHA I was going to try and contact Lux tonight ftr. I woke up and I was like omg I hope I didnt get lynched I forgot I really wanted to try and do the contact thing ;^; at least you didnt vote for me ___(:'

D=
And I played a part in this tragic tale.
*weeps*

We need to talk more in here,,, I keep forgetting about it.

swoops in phase end

Well, shit.

I targets to protect Cure and to talk to Five.

I targeted Rasei for the nk/protect, and tried to contact Cure.

Is the vote for Five a random vote or a activity vote, Rasei? We need to be cautious since it's pretty much mislynch and die at this point.

Ah, sorry, it's late and I was preoccupied all evening.

Uhhh. I'll try and offer more when I wake up tomorrow, since I'm exhausted. I really could see... anyone targeting Tiki. Rasei and Sammiya slightly less so, but Rasei is also pretty surgical with her target selection so I could see her doing it. Slightly more inclined to go for Five or Cure, and there's... I mean at this point the mafia more than likely have met up. Their kills have been very deliberate, it seems.

Problem: Even if we vote out a mafia, we have a 50% chance of hitting the lynchproof (killproof) they have in their possession. Then the resulting night is awkward since... Okay, let's say our target doesn't die from the lynch (possibly 2/5, unless the protect on me was a killproof going off--which was probably it, since no one claimed targeting me, but it makes sense they wouldn't if doing so paints them as being mafia, so...).

Presuming I was actually protected, there's up to two killproofs, so 2/5 chance of lynching one (if I was killproof, then that just leaves the mafia one, so we know not to protect that person, leaving 4 targets to protect, 3 of which are town... hm). Meaning then this night if it's the town killproof that is lynched, mafia would probably know that is out of the way, leaving only the protect which... has a low chance of landing on the right target. Unless every town or person that doesn't know their alignment just targets themself to possibly maximize the chance, idk. I think I just logicked myself through a circle and lost myself and I'm tired.... so

Basically what I'm saying is... unless we lynch the mafia without killproof, we might be in really, really bad shape for trying to prevent the NK versus what mafia will know about who to target. Assuming we don't just lynch town and lose, which is bad. So. There's that.

Rasei, do you have any reasoning for voting on Five?

I wonder if anyone's personality has changed over the game, but.

Eugh.

Order of voting likelihood for me:
Five = Cure
Rasei >= Sammiya

So, this is where I put my screed about splitting votes being bad and all that, but given that it's a thing I've said in pretty much every game I've been a part of here, I don't think I really need to go into it yet again. It's also crunch time, I overslept pretty hard, and there's only a couple hours left in the phase with only one vote up. And to make matters worse, it's a vote I cannot follow because I don't want to be lynched and lose the game, plus it's a vote with literally no reasoning behind it. If it's an activity vote, I can understand that. Hi, hello, I'm here now!

Anyway, numbers--I don't think I'll be posting any this phase, given that we're past the point of expecting anyone to act even remotely randomly, and I think it's a foregone conclusion that the mafia not only contacted each other, but did so before last night phase as well. I can easily see two or more people picking Luxxxiepop out independently of one another, but... not so much Tiki. NO OFFENSE TO TIKI, but from what I've seen he's not exactly as high-profile a target for kills/protection. Either way, though, I guess there's still a tiny tiny chance, however miniscule it might be, that these are all coincidences and that mafia still don't know their partners? For what it's worth, I targeted Luxxxiepop last night, because whether or not there would be a second attempt on her was just a matter of WIFOM... But now, even though the numbers said it was more likely for her to be town, I'm wondering if the attempt on her was a ruse! The numbers for night 1 kind of go out the window if the mafia contacted each other night 0... Does anyone have any thoughts on whether or not Luxxxie likes to play ruses like that when she's mafia?

Then, Rasei... I know Rasei likes to throw out random/activity votes and then leave in the early phases of games... Is it normal behavior for her to keep doing this even at a point where a mislynch will cost us the entire game? It's weirding me out a little and admittedly I might be biased because the vote is on me but it's not a good look at LYLO... Or, technically, I guess this is only MYLO because of the protect? But, either way, counting on the protect/bulletproof to kick in is not a great strategy.

I still don't really know who to vote for, and I'm interested in other people's meta-thoughts on the players above before I do so... But I also want to throw out a placeholder vote in case nobody else puts a vote down before rollover, so... vote: Rasei I guess. I know OMGUS voting is probably bad form, and I also know that last time I voted on her for this reason I led a mislynch, but circumstances are different now and I thought she made a post in the other game about how she knew it was a bad idea now because she got lynched last time she did it?

Well be quick, because I at work. It feels like I been at work forever. Did a double yesterday, and will be here until after rollover. I picked Five because I'm certain either five or cure is mafia. I don't think Lux is mafia because she was one of the people looking for each other and her partner died. I never vote for Sammy unless I have a good reason. At this point I'm certain I'm not mafia because none of my Protects have been targets for the nightkill and none of my messages have been received. Five, I'm willing to change my vote if I can remember to check before rollover



vote:cure because all mafia have to do is stay quiet until rollover to win