WARNING FEEL FREE TO SKIP LITERALLY ALL OF THIS, STARTED THINKING ALOUD, CAN'T STOP THINKING, WHICH OF YOU IS THE MAFIA
Also, to answer possible pairings re: Cure's question, on N0 we had a Ninfia kill.
There's a chance Five targeted herself:
Five wrote:I haven't actually run the numbers for self-voting but a couple of things are clearly evident. First, the more town players self-vote, the higher the chance of the protected player being the NK target, assuming mafia members vote randomly; the more town players self-vote, the less likely the protected player is to be a mafia member. Second, if one mafia member self-votes, it is much more likely there will be a kill attempt, but if both mafia members self-vote, there will be no kill.
Five wrote:I can't really go any further without knowing player meta, but self-votes are particularly... interesting, for reasons I mentioned yesterday.
She may have also targeted Ninfia directly for other reasons I outlined relating to discovering her alignment. Either way, between the two of you...
Cure, in my opinion, is the most likely to self-vote between the two of you. Meaning if Five had sent in an action vote on Ninfia, Cure's vote would have allowed it to happen. Cure claims she targeted me, iirc, which is not unreasonable, and it's one of my three options for her I drafted up to the host N0/D1. The third one is outright targeting Ninfia, which is a bit of a reversal on Ninfia always going after Cure. This comes down to how I read Cure. When she knows she has a kill, she seldom uses it on people like myself or Ninfia, but when she's town she also protects these targets. Thus I'm not sure what a ??? aligned Cure would choose to do. She'd also view herself as likely high on priority list and might consider targeting herself for a chance at protection, which I could see happening. So, her claim of targeting me is difficult to judge because while it's not implausible, it's not the first action I'd expect out of her.
Rasei, in my opinion, would be more likely to target me, Tiki, or Sammiya N0. Those are the three I have for her. That said, I also think it's not impossible she might directly target Ninfia for the sake of testing her alignment or trying to catch a NK with a protect (however unlikely). Rasei's always struck me as exceedingly surgical with her usual action choices in that she's no-nonsense and just goes for the objectively best targets. But, she is clever and I can see her in a situation in which she might target Ninfia. I view her as less likely to target herself, allowing Five to do a NK onto Ninfia via vote.
All in all, this plays out several ways (with my opinions noted):
1. Five/Cure: Five targets Ninfia, Cure targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Possible, but not as likely
2. Five/Cure: Five targets Ninfia, Cure targets herself, and Ninfia dies. - Possible
3. Five/Cure: Five targets Ninfia, Cure targets Five, and Ninfia dies. - Not as likely
4. Five/Cure: Five targets herself, Cure targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Respectable chance
5. Five/Cure: Five targets Cure, Cure targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Possible (MAYBE respectable chance)
6. Five/Rasei: Five targets Ninfia, Rasei targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Least likely
7. Five/Rasei: Five targets Ninfia, Rasei targets herself, and Ninfia dies. - Possible, though slightly unlikely
8. Five/Rasei: Five targets Ninfia, Rasei targets Five, and Ninfia dies. - Slightly unlikely, but possible
9. Five/Rasei: Five targets herself, Rasei targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Possible
10. Five/Rasei: Five targets Rasei, Rasei targets Ninfia, and Ninfia dies. - Least likely
The options that stand out to me are #2, #4, #5, #9, and possibly #7.
Okay, the second night had a target on me.
N0, I do not think the mafia had met up, unless the mafia was Cure/Five, then there might have been a chance of it (Rasei and Five would not search for each other N0, but Cure and Five might search for each other, possibly).
So this means the NK on me required a number of things. First, the person that sent the NK in on Ninfia knew they were mafia at this point. At the very least, they highly suspected it. If there was a self-vote, that player had no real idea at the time.
So, Five. In the highlighted examples, I have Five as targeting herself twice, targeting Ninfia once, possibly twice, and targeting Cure once. This is obviously limited by the mechanics in that if Five doesn't target Ninfia, the other mafia has to do it, and in three of the instances I view her as more likely to target someone other than Ninfia. The two times she directly targets Ninfia requires Cure or Rasei to self-vote. As a result, I feel like it's most probable Five did not know she was the mafia by D1. I think the only way she'd feasibly know about it is if Cure targeted herself and Five targeted Ninfia, since Rasei targeting herself seems unlikely. Thus... We get to N1.
For N1, what does Five do?
In all but one scenario, she has no idea of her alignment. Three times, she's targeted herself or Cure. She did not see an attempt or protect on these targets.
During D1, of note she says:
Five wrote: it's unlikely that the mafia know each other at this point in the game, it's pretty likely that at least one of them has a hunch they're mafia at this point... depending on how likely Ninfia is to be a common target for a kill/protection on n0, anyway. Does anyone have any insight into player meta regarding that?
Everything else related to numbers and probability, for the most part, and comments the rest of us made. Her comments can either be read as her fishing to see the likely people to be her partner, re: targeting Ninfia or self-voting. I get a small sense of town out of her, but there's no way to guarantee this since we all were in a state of "am I town or mafia??" So, inconclusive.
During N1, she did not comment on too much except that one mafia might have a hunch, which is accurate, if not understated. To be fair, more people might've targeted Ninfia and not claimed it. I'll be very interested to see post-game actions.
Okay, so. Let's pretend we're Five.
It's N1, we probably don't know if we're town or mafia, except in the one universe where Cure targeted herself, and the unlikely reality of Rasei targeting herself. Prior to this we've targeted ourself or Cure. If we targeted Cure, this makes our target onto Luxaria make a lot more sense because we're flipping between them. In fact, in this case in our eyes, we're trying to place a protect on a target we expect to receive high vote counts for both night phases (Cure and Luxaria, in that order). For us to have this consistency, Cure would have had to have targeted Ninfia N0. If Cure targets Ninfia N0 and sees her die, she's going to realize she's mafia and she's going to target either herself to help her mafia buddy get their attack off, or she's going to target someone strategically. In this case, targeting Luxaria or herself allows for the NK to go off on Luxaria.
In the case where we targeted ourself, now we're in a position where we have no reason to suspect we're immediately mafia, so what do we do? We can target ourself again, but now that a NK has gotten off it suggests the mafia have either been of similar mind or we were an accomplice in self-voting. If we vote ourself again tonight, we run the risk of being protected if the next target down the line is ourself--after all, Ninfia died instead of Cure or Luxaria, players we would logically expect to die. Targeting ourself is a lot riskier this phase.
We could target someone like Tiki or Aeiou to feel out our alignment, but we also realize we have a chance of being town with a protect. We look at Luxaria, ourself, or Cure as logically the best target. However, if we're mafia and we choose our target incorrectly, the NK might completely fail and we'd lose. We're in a difficult scenario.
At the same time, in the universe where Rasei targets Ninfia, she now realizes she is probably mafia. I view the situation where Rasei self-targets as the most unlikely, and so the only thing that's up for consideration is what Rasei does after she targets Ninfia N0. She knows her ally targeted Ninfia or themself. Rasei's already chosen Ninfia, meaning any combination of Five, Cure, or Luxaria makes sense, however I expect Rasei to not be likely to target Cure or Five on N1 if she targeted Ninfia N0. Thus, Rasei in this situation is trying to figure out how she handles this situation now. Why would Rasei choose Ninfia? These reasons run contrary to what would let her choose Luxaria N1. She might want to take out Luxaria, after seeing how easily she took out Ninfia. She might worry that if Luxaria is mafia, she'd put a protect on Luxaria, drawing attention to her. So what does Rasei do. I think in this situation Rasei would target Luxaria most likely, followed by a coin flip of Cure or Five, which in the case of the latter allows Five to target Luxaria following the above logic.
Lastly, if we're Cure in her three universes, she's targeted Ninfia twice and herself once. With Ninfia as a N0 target, Luxaria or Five is definitely reasonable from her perspective, in which case the NK goes through. This said, I feel like she would still be less likely to directly target me, on top of her N0 action going for Ninfia suggesting she'd more try other targets, with possibly Five at the top of that list, but not sure. If she targeted herself, I feel it is less likely she'd do this again, because she would probably want answers, recognize maf #2 might target her if she's maf, or she'd view herself as less likely to be hit after Ninfia was hit, thinking someone like Lux, Five, Rasei, or Tiki would target Ninfia, probably in that order, and that they wouldn't go for her the next phase.
Thus we arrive at the following:
11. Five/Cure: Five targets Luxaria, Cure targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
12. Five/Cure: Five targets Luxaria, Cure targets herself, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible, but not as likely
13. Five/Cure: Five targets Luxaria, Cure targets Five, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
14. Five/Cure: Five targets herself, Cure targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
15. Five/Cure: Five targets Cure, Cure targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
16. Five/Rasei: Five targets Luxaria, Rasei targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
17. Five/Rasei: Five targets Luxaria, Rasei targets herself, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible, though mostly unlikely
18. Five/Rasei: Five targets Luxaria, Rasei targets Five, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
19. Five/Rasei: Five targets herself, Rasei targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Possible
20. Five/Rasei: Five targets Rasei, Rasei targets Luxaria, and Luxaria NKed. - Least likely
This one is a lot less concrete because it depends a lot more on people's reactions to a multitude of results on N0 and D1. If I have to bet, I'd wager Five probably targeted Luxaria, letting her mafia buddy pick any target they wanted of the above and succeed.
I am honestly mentally fatigued at this point, and to analyze what people would be feeling regarding this night's targets, votes, the next night, my god.
So let's cut it down shorter.
Tiki then died the next night. This one throws me off. Any of the three could send this in. Rasei is less likely. Cure tends to leave Tiki up, but she might just run him off since he was arguably unlikely at this point to have delivered the kills seen N0 and N1, whereas the others were suspicious. Five and Cure can't really afford to kill the other, if they can, because with Luxaria getting a protect, this brings them more into the spotlight. For Rasei, if she NK'd Sammiya last night, it stands to reason she might NK Tiki as well to also distance herself. However, this then gets interesting. The kill on Tiki happened, which is incredibly specific.
I doubt both mafia went for Tiki, meaning one of them either self-voted or voted for the other. If you're Rasei or Cure, do you vote for Five on N2 after your NK on N1 failed (if you suspect you're mafia)? I do not think Cure would, but I could see Rasei doing it. Do you NK Tiki? Cure might, Rasei might. Five might go for any of Cure, Rasei, or self-vote depending on the situation.
So now we have yesterday's votes.
Rasei: Five
Five: Rasei
Rasei: Cure
Cure: Rasei
Lux: Cure
Sammiya: Five
Cure: Five
Lux: Five
These votes suggest, as I said earlier, that either mafia never met, or Cure was attempting to save herself at the expense of a mafia. That said, it makes no sense to feasibly tie a vote between mafia instead of trying to tie against a town, especially when you're MYLO.
Thus, contacts and claims:
Cure:
n0: my targets were NK/protect Lux and message Ninfia.
n1: my targets were NK/protect Five and message Lux.
Rasei:
Last night I targeted Cure and Sammy.
Last night I tried to contact Tiki, and targeted to protect Cure.
I targets to protect Cure and to talk to Five.
Five:
On night 0 I targeted Aeiou and contacted Luxxxiepop (because of course I did, if you couldn't guess who I tried to contact immediately that's on you.
Night 1 I targeted Sammiya and tried to contact Aeiou
I can't believe I almost missed this part. Why did I speculate on all of the above? Five's above claim came on D2, after I failed to die. This is obviously suggesting she already knew she was mafia, or had a good chance of it, or else she would not have lied. Even saying she self-voted isn't as incriminating, though it still puts her in a bad spot. However, for her to know she was mafia...
A)
N0 Voted Ninfia
N1 Voted Luxaria = Self > Other Mafia (Rasei or Cure)
B)
N0 Voted Self
N1 Voted Luxaria
In B, she could not have voted for anyone else N1 or she'd have no reason to lie, unless she really, really didn't want to claim a self-vote twice, which isn't too scummy I feel.
Hmmm.
So she knows she's mafia. Actually, if she follows B, she might think she was the protect so she could lie about N1, but not N0, unless she actually wanted to convert the logic she was utilizing onto new targets so she had a stronger story. Hmm. Hmmmmm.
So she knows or thinks she's mafia.
Votes come yesterday, Rasei starts a vote on Five, then swaps it.
Rasei claims having checked with Five, but if she actually had and they were mafia, does she reveal this to the thread??
Rasei swaps vote to Cure.
Cure puts vote on Rasei after Five, but then votes Five.
Cure has no reason to vote for Five if she had contacted Five.
Five knowing she's mafia... hmmm.
Who puts the kill in on Tiki that night...
Five on N2 would probably target Cure or herself, less likely to target Rasei or Tiki.
Cure targeting Tiki is not crazy if she targeted Luxaria N1 and herself or Ninfia N0.
Rasei targeting Tiki N2 depends on her previous actions, but since Five knows Five is Mafia, this means Rasei either voted self or for Five N0, or she did do Ninfia, which is not unreasonable, actually, maybe. Hmm.
Five is lynched.
Sammiya dies.
If Sammiya dies, does Rasei ever do this? Rasei will know of her position in thread. It makes more sense to take out Cure or Lux, but maybe she thinks her best chance is to get them to turn on each other so she kills Sammiya, which is unlikely (I honestly can never see even a mafia Rasei killing Sammiya, but maybe if she desperately wants to appear town and distance herself from it.)
Cure killing Sammiya is strange because arguably if she goes for Lux, she knows then it's Sammiya and Rasei, but they will rarely vote against each other, however there's the advantage that Cure and Sammiya voted out a mafia while Rasei did not, so Sammiya might vote Rasei. But Sammiya dies. So if she kills Sammiya, she's either hoping to put Lux onto Rasei, or twist Rasei onto Lux. So she's okay with either vote in this situation.
Okay, but, if Cure and Five are both mafia, surely they would have contacted each other sooner? It stands to reason they would both try this. Also, Cure said she actioned Lux/Contacted Ninfia N0, but actioned Five/Contacted Lux N1. Okay so, if Five is certain that she's mafia by D2, or at least lying about it, that means Cure acting on Five N1 makes sense and lets it go through in the case Five acted on Luxaria. However, in this case, Cure being truthful of acting on Lux makes the N0 NK impossible since it's a tie between Lux and Ninfia. Meanwhile, Rasei has said she targeted Cure each and every night (was the first night contact or action?), which is really goddamn weird to me honestly.
What are lies and what's the truth? Did the second mafia ever notice they were mafia prior to Five dying? Who are they if so...
Which of you is mafia.......................................
@ Rasei:Who did you action and who did you contact N0?
Why have you used an action on Cure each night, as it seems?
Why did you swap your action from Cure to yourself so suddenly last night?
@ Cure:What was your reasoning for acting on me N0 when you normally never try to act on me, as far as I know?
If Five knew she was mafia D1, then that makes the possible outcomes more skewed towards Cure self-voting or voting Ninfia or Five, whereas Rasei voting Ninfia or herself is slightly less likely. But the actions last phase, and by virtue of reasoning that Five and Cure would likely have contacted each other sooner and not lynched Cure yesterday, then...
...
Tentatively
Vote: Raseimaybe.
I HATE.
NOT.
BEING ABLE.
TO SPECULATE.
PROPERLY.