Laughing Among the Crying Wolves [OVER - MAFIA WIN]

Luxaria ~ <3 wrote:@ Host

On N0 it seems more likely than not for mafia to reach a tie since there's only two of them, in which case the NK is thwarted. What shows up in rollover in the event of a tie on two town players?

What if the two tied targets are two different mafia, nullifying the selection in a tie? What is shown then?

Protection/Killproof: "X was targeted for a kill, but it failed."
Tie: "No one was killed."

The wording will be different because in the case of a tie, there is no attempt to start with.

If the two tied targets are two different mafia, the rollover will show the same as in the case of a tie.

Assuming random votes, the likelihood of both mafia selecting the same target is about 11%. Past that, the likelihood of this target being town is about 78%, for a total of about 9%. This results in a kill attempt. The odds of the mafia targeting one of their own for a kill are about 2%. This results in a protect.

The odds of the mafia selecting different targets and both of them being town are about 52%. The likelihood of one of them being town and the other mafia is about 34%. This results in a kill attempt. The likelihood of both of them being mafia is between about 3%.

The likelihood of a kill attempt is about 43%. The likelihood that there is a kill attempt which lands on the protected target is about 5%. This results in a protect.

So, with random votes, the likelihood of an NK occurring is around 38%. The odds of a protect occurring are about 7%. With random votes, if there is a protect, there is a roughly 71% chance the protection target is town and an approximately 29% chance the protection target is mafia.

Obviously, none of this math includes any consideration of player meta, such as which players are more likely than others to be targeted night 0, which players might be more likely to target which players, and the likelihood of self-voting being higher for certain players than voting for another player.

I haven't actually run the numbers for self-voting but a couple of things are clearly evident. First, the more town players self-vote, the higher the chance of the protected player being the NK target, assuming mafia members vote randomly; the more town players self-vote, the less likely the protected player is to be a mafia member. Second, if one mafia member self-votes, it is much more likely there will be a kill attempt, but if both mafia members self-vote, there will be no kill.

So long and goodnight. I'm going to throw this calculator on the ground and stomp on it until it breaks now. I'm sick of its smug little face.

this seems like it'll probably play out somewhat similarly to twitch maf

You getting lynched D1 for wanting to lynch the actual mafia?

I hope not. 8(

☭ ƒ٧זΣ ☭ wrote:Oh my, Luxxxiepop, that's ever so sweet of you! I do recommend if you want a nickname to find one yourself, or... at the least, don't take any of that troll's. None of those are endearing at all... well, except maybe "V"? That's a stretch, though.

Fiviepop
Fiviepoo
Count Five
Countess Five
Prime Number
#
IIII
Friend Is Very Endearing
Evif

This is going to be an interesting game.

It's going to be a really interesting game, yep~

Okay, I've counted the timezone wrong I guess? How long until rollover, sorry?

Rollover should have been a little over an hour ago. It is currently 22:08 UTC+2.

(Five is right. I think the host is currently preoccupied, from what I know, so whenever she's back around we'll get rollover. <3)

Apologies for the late rollover; the hosr fell asleep due to a headache and missed rollover. I'll have it up asap, and the next one will be at the normal time.

shrine guardian ezz wrote:Apologies for the late rollover; the hosr fell asleep due to a headache and missed rollover. I'll have it up asap, and the next one will be at the normal time.

Woo!

... Fia please stop dying. :((

Hmmm. So I was wondering how likely a N0 NK would go off, given all variables and complications. I wonder what players would target Ninfia N0. This is interesting.

Also that flavor text is kind of scary. ;;