The evidence I will believe:
Cure targeted Duck with her quirk and got it reflected back.
Tiki targeted Cure with his quirk and it landed on Duck.
Tiki targeted Tetsuya and Luxaria with a bus.
Thoughts:
A bus between Cure and Duck explains this the most neatly, but it does not line up with either statement from Tetsuya or Ninfia (Ninfia claimed she bussed Cure and ezzelin; Tetsuya claimed Ninfia visited ezzelin and Duck, and then visited Cure as a separate action).
There is the chance that a mafia might be pretending to have a quirk that another mafia might actually have received. For example, in the hypothetical situation where Duck is mafia, and someone ended up with Tiki's meme quirk, it's possible that they could have pawned it off in thread to a different player. That said, it would mean the quirk and resulting power isn't actually activated. For that matter, there's a chance that in a previous phase a mafia had actually used their own quirk and didn't send it out to anyone the night before, making it look like it came from someone else. Which screws up process of elimination a little bit.
This boils down to if we believe Duck is town and telling the truth about getting Tiki's quirk. Because if so, it means something is wrong about what Tet saw and Ninfia claims.
This said, if Tiki knows for a fact that he targeted Cure, then according to the claims, Ninfia's would suggest Tiki's would land on ezzelin, while Tetsuya's claims suggest Tiki's quirk would land on Cure. It did neither of these things, apparently. Cure would not be lying since 95% she is town; she does not have Tiki's quirk. And apparently it did not vanish on ezzelin if Duck has it, unless Duck is mafia and mafia happened to notice the quirk being used in previous phases. But why bring it up if you're mafia in this case. Curious.
I don't even want to entertain the idea of my apparently stolen bus and redirect being in the midst of all of this terribleness, if Rasei is accurate. And the jail came from town, she said, which backs something Tetsuya hinted at re: Lucas.
I want off this wild ride.