crossroads ✕ town win

Okay. We have three mislynches right now.

SO then (assuming all mislynches) if we do lynch somone:

D1 ~ 11:6
N1 ~ 10:6
D2 ~ 9:2
N2 ~ 8:6
D3 ~ 7:6
N3 ~ 6:6

If we have a NL tonight:

D1 ~ 12:6
N1 ~ 11:6
D2 ~ 10:2
N2 ~ 9:6
D3 ~ 8:6
N3 ~ 7:6
D4 ~ 6:6

So... assuming there is an NK every night, and there is no revive role, then NL doesn't really buy us an extra day. It just buys us an extra night.

So if there is a revive role, or enough protects to think that we can be confidant at least one NK fails, then its probably worth doing a lynch tonight.

Of course no one should claim a protect/revive role right now, so its kinda got to come down to intuition about game balance, I think? With the mafia ratio being what it is, I tentatively think there are enough protects or a revive role to make it worthwhile?


EDIT: I messed up the ratios. Please stand by.

EDIT 2: OKAY!
So not lynching someone would buy us an extra day phase. In which case I would be inclined to think it would be worth it to wait to get some better information.

Fuck it. We have unlimited vote changes.

vote: no lynch

I'll go back to updating the master post once we actually have flavor to work with.

Lucas wrote:After thinking a little more about it, it's REALLY unlikely for this role to be town, and it makes perfect sense for mafia to use it asap (even if it can only be used a limited number of times). Since it will only take around 3 mislynches for the mafia to win, there'd be no point in waiting for the "appropriate moment" to use this role, because the best time for it to go off is when we have the least amount of information to base our lynch on. It's basically a race to see which team can lower the ratio in their favor faster lmao.

Given that actions apparently did go through, this is my interpretation of the situation. Couple the lack of flavor with the fact that we won't get the usual information from rollover effects, it kind of puts town in a position where any results or information we may have is limited in that... for example, we know there wasn't a kill, but we can't even begin to pin down who or what might have prevented it, and what target might have sent it or been thwarted. Couple this with the ratio, and thus the implied role balance, and we're not in familiar territory for this game. I can 100% see mafia throwing this ability down right away to keep town in the dark.

Ninfia wrote:My first thought upon seeing that ratio is that there are perhaps some townies who are recruited into the mafia once they're hit with an NK, but cannot communicate with the mafia until they are recruited. There's also the idea that Kiyoko brought up that there may be a ton of protects and stuns.

You mean like how I set it up for Snowball maf? With the ratio assuming the conversion from the start of the game? And possibly Literary with chinomi, but I don't recall if chinomi counted towards the ratio.

That... might be possible. It couldn't be more than 1 or 2 people, though, right? Roughly 5.5:12.5 to 4.5:13.5 ish hm. I think 2 people having this kind of role would be a little funky, and only having one with it feels unusual if you're making the overall ratio effectively 5.5:12.5. I guess we have no way of figuring this out unless there's evidence of it. I think even in the case of there being one turncoat in this situation, the overall ratio would still support town having some prominent setup of protects, investigations, and revive(s).

Rasei wrote:Anyway, Kiyoko, Lux, and Cure, do you think it's better risking a lynch now or wait until next day break.

I kind of want to hear from the players that haven't posted, of which I think... it's ezzelin, Aeiou, and I think angel and Crypsis (* Edit: Saki did a post, actually, and though I wouldn't mind more from her (?), I can't really blame her if she's quiet since there's not much to go on especially if you're newer. The first half of that also applies to a few others, but probably not a huge concern given the phase atm), but I'd need to double-check to see if I missed any. Maybe Tiki? Reason being that if one of them had some results that wouldn't be detrimental to share, it might give us something to go off of.

Otherwise, I do agree that NL is probably overall wise since at worst we lost a bulletproof, and at best we lost nothing and effectively gained a free night of information gathering. Several people seem to have gotten some form of result or returns on their actions that we could try to poke and prod around. We could also activity lynch if any of the people that haven't posted do not show up before rollover--though I'd be lenient on ezzelin and Crypsis, and Aeiou tends to show up roughly 3-6 hours from now, anyway.

tl;dr: It's probably overall better to go for a NL, given the setup in thread and lack of public information. We won't necessarily have much to go on with the absence of stuns, jails, and protects in future phases, but flavor text will at least give us some talking points and speculation which I'm really curious to see in action. Seeing all the actions via flavor is the price we pay for invisible stuns and jails, so I hope/believe we can make something of it.

@ Duck

Kiyo mentioned we had 3 ML a few pages ago, but seeing it charted out isn't bad. Basically, if we NL it's as if we start the game on D2, presuming we get a rollover next time, with the added advantage of 48 hours to discuss the game and collect results.

Crypsis/Saki posted close to rollover, though they didn't say much.

I acted twice last night, one went through and one I have no idea if it worked or not
I'm finding it harder to believe that the drummer is town if it didnt cancel any action and instead just wiped out all info which mainly effects town. If...drummer is mafia then I have an idea on who to vote?? But I have a hard time making decisions :>

Luxaria wrote:
@ Duck

Kiyo mentioned we had 3 ML a few pages ago, but seeing it charted out isn't bad. Basically, if we NL it's as if we start the game on D2, presuming we get a rollover next time, with the added advantage of 48 hours to discuss the game and collect results.

*Nods* I did see that Kiyoko had said we had 3ML, I was just curious to see where the numbers would fall on days and nights.

If not lynching someone only bought us an extra night, I would say it wouldn't have been worth it.

Kiyoko wrote:Crypsis/Saki posted close to rollover, though they didn't say much.

Yeah, I edited that in a moment ago.

And there's Aeiou, too. With interesting thoughts.

Also I think Tagi only posted a horse ebooks tweet

Oh, I forgot that this came to mind while writing my previous post, but: It might not be impossible that the action we saw was a passive that activated when someone was targeted. I do still think what Lucas said is right in that if it was a mafia active, they'd throw it down rather quickly. But I also wonder if it alternatively might be tied to someone being targeted with some form of action, be it offensive or investigative or controlling. That said, odds are it's not a bulletproof that erases rollover as some idk counterbalance. Meaning I'd sooner suspect a mafia nullifying a targeted action and then the rollover along with, since erasing the rollover is way too anti-town to be a counterbalance, I think, even if town might in fact be loaded with protection effects.

But again, we don't really have a way to explore this safely for this particular phase, so. It was just a thought.

@ Aeiou
Yeah, she's one of the other people I was indirectly addressing my edit at that kind of posted but kind of didn't. I think she also asked something about lynches.

Aeiou wrote:I acted twice last night, one went through and one I have no idea if it worked or not
I'm finding it harder to believe that the drummer is town if it didnt cancel any action and instead just wiped out all info which mainly effects town. If...drummer is mafia then I have an idea on who to vote?? But I have a hard time making decisions :>

D...o you know who drummer is? While I'm kind of hesitant about lynching based off claimed information this phase given that we can't verify shit (I think I talked about this in a previous post), it might be worth outing it in thread so we can discuss it, and even if we NL we can always stun that person at night or something.

i'm really weirded out about all the posts that are like "well i have AN IDEA on a lynch candidate but i'm not gonna say it!!", it seeems like a really easy unverifiable thing to toss out there

also, is it possible that the drum solo ONLY wiped the NK action itself? maybe?

I kind of doubt that. Its unlikely that no other flavour but the nk would have shown up on n0, imo. I'm in the "fairly certain that the drummer is mafia" camp as of yet.

when it comes to the hesitation towards fosing someone, I can't quite blame people. We have so little information to go on that its a bit scary to out something that could be very inaccurate and hurt the town significantly at this point in time.

Also since I might be at work late and I don't want to mis the vote: Vote: No Lynch.

edit: also @ lux: yes, snowball maf was exactly what I was thinking of there. I could see.... maybe two people counting as you said but they probably have secondary abilities that either unlock once they're recruited or abilities that are super useful to the maf even without a lot of direction? Once again, I really have no basis for this idea though, its just something that occurred to me when seeing the ratio.

HELLO FRIENDS I HAVE INTERNET NOW.

Sorry for missing a phase, couldn't connect until now after moving Sunday evening - the best I could do was get on skype on mobile data to relay the message, but that kinda ate the last of my phone credit in the process.

Having backread, I strongly agree that the drummer is mafia and not only bc of the claimed actions that went through, but also bc of the flavour I think it only stopped us from "hearing" flavour. So in that light, I'd encourage those who seem to have an idea who the drummer /a potential lynch candidate might be (Cure and Ace if I'm not mistaken?) to come forward with a name so we can at least discuss it.

Oh, and I haven't acted last phase at all. (Obviously, since I didn't have internet, but just wanted to state it clearly anyway.)

Then what do you think happened to all the other rollover info Tagi? Even if it erased a NK there should still be other flavor texts. It didn't let us see anything ;^; but we know abilities went through

no, i mean to say, what if it erased all the info in rollover AND blocked JUST the NK? it seems like it could be a more pro-town application of the power... (like it blocks the nk no matter what, but at the price of rollover info)

edit im not saying it seeems particularly likely lol, but it is an idea