A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

What was your reasoning at the time, and why target katagi instead of other players? I'm not saying it was necessarily an ill-advised target given how the thread was going, but you caught only some of the "Lux vs katagi" around the end of D3 I think? What led you to shoot katagi instead of me? Were you worried the game would end if you mistargeted and mafia got a NK? Basically, I just want conclusive thoughts regarding what led you to target katagi and just general impressions on the thread. I hope it's not too intimidating to keep asking, but you've been at the top of several players' reads and we don't know as much about your thoughts as we'd like, even if real life is in part the culprit for this.

So help us help you, if you don't mind. ;;

Edit: Okay, hm. Why would drandahl flipping town mean katagi was mafia?

I felt like one of drandahl or katagi was mafia in general, and just a general gut instinct about Katagi since she was so determined to view me as mafia when I brushed off her activity vote since I view those more as trying to get people to speak under normal circumstances. Activity votes aren't something I normally view as needing to be responded to, like I said before, so the way she began focusing on me after that baffled me and piqued my suspicion. And since drandahl flipped town, even if Katagi didn't participate in the abrupt band wagon at the end of the phase, I thought she had to be mafia.

You're acting like how you typically do when you're town, so I've been thinking you're town. Rasei I'm not sure about, I was thinking ezz was town, Tiki feels like town, Lucas I'm not sure about, and Tiny I'm not sure about.

But with the lack of a jail, and the fact Aeiou and Tiny were both stunned, I'd be willng to vote for one of them.

Crap I did act on katagi last night but not like that :')
Still at school, skim read again but I've got a meeting soon and also on mobile. Will respond asap but I am also aware that most of you are going to bed soon. I'll try to get on soon!

Lightening fast response to lux because meeting is delayed, most of my ideas are pretty much based on other peoples spec, I don't have a spreadsheet or notes (I will next time!) so I'm not doing particularly well at cross referencing people's statements to narrow down potential motives. Most of my actions also either failed or became redundant so I've not got much additional info either. The spec about Lucas was the most grounded in in game actions so I can get behind that.

Edit: also re: from memory the spec about Katagi had a lot to do with play style/ knowing her personally and since I don't know her it didn't really set me off. In relation to tyki, I'm kind of hesitant to throw stones since it's a lot less work to post fluff during a busy work day than it is to trawl posts and come up with in depth responses. I'm feeling that pain rn haha

When is my meeting even happening omg

I'll get back to you two in the morning. I'm going to head off a bit early tonight, but thanks for the replies. I'll see what I think of them when I'm not so tired and burnt out. I encourage others to ask questions and speculate, and again, do not follow my vote without firm reasoning. I am still disgruntled at TIKI for this.

Also, to clarify another thing:

Several people have continuously commented that the jail belonged to mafia, and insofar the person receiving the jail has typically not had anyone claim on them (ezz N0 iirc; Luxaria N2 had two actions and one claim). katagi claimed acting on both Five (N1) and myself (N2). Five was jailed N1, and I was jailed and shot N2. I'd need to cross-reference her statements about the jailer to get a better idea of how she felt about it, because if she was pushing that the jailer was mafia... that makes things interesting. I do feel like she probably shot me N2, because her reaction in thread makes a lot of sense if she had reason to suspect I was protected by mafia (which lends support to the idea that she probably thought the mafia had a jailer, and so her action on Five on N1... probably wasn't jail, but who knows, for both that reason and another).

I want to analyze Five's comments regarding the jail to see if she might have been the jailer at all, which might explain that role going unclaimed. However, this is also the first night phase without Five around, and as such the missing jail could, in theory, be attributed to her. I kind of wish she had claimed her targets or said more, now. She hinted about people claiming their action if an important thing happened, but never did, partly due to thread consensus. I don't know. I'll review her comments and katagi's later to figure that out.

Anyway, the point of this is... There has been a theory from a lot of people that the jailer has to be mafia, and as such if we assume it didn't belong to katagi or Five (which I'm going to try to check, as said--tomorrow), then them dying wouldn't impact it. But the jailer being stunned out might, and there are two stuns last night and no jail to be seen. Thus, I have been largely in the "I want definitive proof that the jailer is mafia" camp, and ezzelin did provide some thoughts that I found within an acceptable margin, and so I still ascribe to either theory... but... the lack of jail when two targets that I personally found higher up on my reads were stunned... Hmmm.

Thus, between that and my statements at the end of last phase, I'm tossing a vote onto Tiny. It's largely due to vibes with regards to how she's interacted in thread and the timing with which she's shown up and voted, but I also realize she's a new member and in an awkward timezone, so a lot of this could just be bad luck and unfortunate circumstance on her behalf. I am more than willing to swap my vote later in the phase if it feels right, and thus while I do feel more confident in this read than others at the moment, I still want a vote out earlier so things happen before 20 minutes before the phase ends for once.

Tl;dr: I'm voting Tiny due to previous vibes (relating to timing in thread + votes), reads at the end of last phase, lack of jail tonight when Tiny (and Aeiou) was stunned, when jail is a role many perceive to be mafia, and also as a probe. Do not follow this vote without good reasons or I will look at you as latching onto it. To Sammiya and Tiny, I will address your recent posts more in the morning, as well as review some posts--particularly from Five and katagi, but also ezzelin, Lucas, and Tiny--before proceeding.

Toodles

Just as an aside I was stunned on day 1 too so I can't be the jailer (if I'm wrong plz let me know) but that's all I have to say for myself rn

This is true that if you were stunned then you did not submit that particular jail on D1, though I think the point is more that either the mafia share a jail, or all mafia are jailers (though we've never seen more than one?), or whichever the case may be. I'll let people more convinced that the jailer is mafia weigh in on that.

But yes, that is a good point and I'll definitely take it into consideration when I sit down more to think on it as I promised and still promise to do. I could have also chosen to vote for Aeiou instead of you, and to be honest Aeiou also has not really commented on much in the past while. So I'd like to see her weigh in, just as I'd like to see what you can offer in face of the vote and attention you've recently been getting from multiple players.

If you're actually town, and especially since you're new, apologies and I'm going to do my best to not make this too scary for you (no guarantees to anyone else), which is why I'm saying no one should follow the vote without firm reasoning of their own. Well, no one should follow a vote without firm reasoning in general.

If you're mafia, well, I'll still apologize if this is scary since you are new, but forgive me if I have a specific objective, here. Some of which have gone unsaid, for that matter.

Luxaria wrote:
If you're actually town, and especially since you're new, apologies and I'm going to do my best to not make this too scary for you.

You are very kind! But no need to worry, no matter what way the votes swing I am having heaps of fun in this game and really appreciate everyone putting up with my super slow uptake and weird activity times. If you super feel like you need to vote me I will not be upset!

Again I haven't been keeping notes and trying to make intensive notes on the whole thread now would take a super long time so I'm just gonna trot out thoughts.

I am curious as to why ezzelin was SO adamant that tiki was town before rollover happened, I would have thought any solid knowledge prior to that would have been voided on account of the conversion.

I'm not really following a lot of the spec on Tiki, Aeiou or Sammiya as its pretty dense and has a lot to do with activity, its going straight over my head.

Rasei and Lucas I still kind of think might be maf???? Because Lucas was near the start of both band wagons (that I jumped on so stones in glass houses) plus Rasei's warning not to lynch them was so foreboding and creepy and I still don't know why it was so urgent.

She-ra I have no idea. I remember reading spec on her but now I can't find it. She seems wonderful.

Lux I'm p sure is town because if they're not then I'm p much boned as that's mostly who I've been looking at for ideas this whole game.

Luxaria wrote:what do you think of Rasei's comment about there being no jail and you and Aeiou being stunned? How would you break down all the kill attempts and their likely origins for the past few nights? And what do you think of everything that was said yesterday, in particular?

I'm assuming a stun is a consequence of any action that failed (kill, investigate, jail, is there anything else?) but please correct me if I'm wrong.
I get what people are saying about the jailer being mafia since it seems silly for town to jail someone on N0. As far as all the kill attempts, I honestly don't know on account of the sheer number of potential vigs on both sides (screw u Hayley this is so not beginner level maf <3) and all the other spec on the origins of each shot seems to be based off an initial assumption (i.e. if x shot was maf that player is probably town) and I'm not really convinced by any of the initial assumptions.

I quickly reread parts of yesterday's posts but I'm not sure which part you're referring to since I'm pretty sure the forum's timezone, your timezone and my timezone are all different. On the plus side once you clarify I can respond right away since tomorrow is the weekend for me.

I'm sorry I know I'm being really on the fence about everything but I honestly don't know where to point my suspicion stick (granted it may not matter since its looking like I will be the lynch this phase, at least that takes the pressure off).

I have no other net than on mobile rn, and idk how long that will last since it likes to cut and if it does, I won't be ble to reconnect. I'll try to reread abd post from phone but if I don't, you know what happened :(
it seems to be the same issue as when I moved in, so I'll look into addressing it myself cause if I wait for landlord the won't be any net till tomorrow for sure.

Rollover probably makes a lot of this response useless but I did want to address it since I just saw everything.

Luxaria wrote:
Hm, Sammiya never said anything outright or against drandahl.

drandahl's vote on Sammiya was more of a "either her or Lucas" kind of deal, since his analysis of the votes indicated that probably one of them might be mafia given the sudden NL train, and they were were it began to turn. But, regardless of this, it may be true that drandahl was on track with his suspicions if Sammiya is mafia.

Hm... I thought I remembered it as more antagonistic, but I could wrong or just getting that read from tones. Wasn't there a point where they each had voted each other and almost no one else had voted? Not sure it matters now, and if I'm remembering things wrong then slightly disregard. I still have suspicions on samiya but I don't want to base my vote this phase entirely on what Dran thought. Will keep in mind, but with this rollover I'm inclined to look more closely at vowels and tiny.

Luxaria wrote:
Completely fair. Lucas commented he was sure one of the votes on Rasei prior to his NL was mafia (or at least his wording suggested it; it may not have been as committed), and I voiced similar opinion given how the phase went. I can also see mafia slipping into the NL train. It really depends on Rasei's alignment, which is up in the air in some regards.

Technically I guess it's still possible rasei is maf? But it seems less likely. I don't think town vig would have tried to shoot Rasei last night since there wasn't a ton of suspicion being thrown her way, so I'm guessing both shots were from maf for now.

Luxaria wrote:
Would you think all three shots would come from maf? Actually, to clarify, when you say all three which ones are you referring to? The three attempts on Aeiou, katagi, and myself prior to N2? Or the presumed three mafia shots spread between N1 and N2?

The former, yeah. To be clear, I'm not sure of anything with that but the two most prominent theories thrown around I think were that all shots came from maf or that it was two maf shots and a town vig. Now that we know katagi was town I'm not sure if that changes things, but I'm still inclined to think one of those three was likely maf so now suspicion falls on you or vowels. Rollover being as it is, looking to hear more from vowels for sure.

Luxaria wrote: What about Aeiou on N0, and arguably even ezz, for that matter? Especially Aeiou since your original quote was one of Aeiou, katagi, and Lux was probably mafia, or something to that effect.

I'm not sure I have a read on ezz. I've found her spec helpful and right now she's not top of my list. I felt fairly sure of vowels being town earlier in the game but I could be wrong or things could have changed. Katagi flipped town and before my feelings were in the katagi v Lux range.
Still willing to look at lux, but I find your spec useful and it feels pro town. Still. Could be.

Need to think more on what rollover means since I was wrong to suspect katigi. The lack of jail does seem to implicate either vowels or tiny, but it could also mean that the jailer was five as you say, which assuages those suspicions somewhat if true. Also possible that someone had a jail and just didn't use it I guess? Or it was blocked in a way that doesn't show up? (is that a thing that can happen?) Will still want to look into Samiya more, now also tiny and vowels. Not much has changed in my thoughts on tiki either, I don't think.

My would-vote list rn: Tiny, vowels, tiki
Other suspicions: samiya, lux(?),
Unsure: ezz, lucas
more sure: rasei

Not gonna vote yet, I'll be around all day.

Tinylightsflash wrote:She-ra I have no idea. I remember reading spec on her but now I can't find it. She seems wonderful.

awh thank you ^.^

Im really sorry for my lack of posting. Unfortunately now Im in a tough spot and Im kind of surprised more people arent voting for me since at this point Id probably vote me RIP so Im not sure of how solid a defense I can make? I acted on Lucas but it obviously didn't go through

I'll just try to go down the list??

ezzelin
- Middle ground but not really willing to vote just because Ezz has been contributing a lot so it helps?? if that makes sense? As in Id rather eliminate a quiet maf at this point in town than risk mislynching an active town? I  know Ezz has thrown out some thing people seem to have gotten bad vibes from, someoen even mentioned her playing like she does when shes maf but I dont... really remember other than when Ezz was cook so Im just unsure atm

Luxaria
- Has been really pro-town and creating discussion which I would imagine maf just wouldnt do? Has a lot of reasons to be viewed as convert being a strong spec, trusted as town etc but more leaning town and def wont want to lynch lux

High Seraph
-What has Lucas even said lately? I feel like Lucas is always a mystery to me for some reason. I havent formed an opinion on him

She-Ra
-I was a little suspicious of her at the start just because she wasnt adding much to discussion and was also sort of sliding under the radar. She has been really open with answering all of Lux's questions though. Kind of middle grounds here as well

Tiki The Troll
- kind of had a flip of attitude due to irl, could also be recruit but on the other hand, why Tiki? (no offense! just that theres probably better options). Tiki's been insistent that rasei is town which at this point I think we all think shes town so that would be a strange thing for maf tiki to do? so the only way that makes sense is if he is the recruit but idk, for now leaning more town. I agree with Ezz that its easier and less confusing to focus on who was maf from the start

Katagi
-I dont find it too strange that she would suspect Lux of being the convert, its a pretty scary idea esp with Lux sort of controlling the thread with discussion? However Katagi has seemed to back off that now that Lux went wild with questions lol I feel like she is town more though after all her answers. Maybe I should stop believing in people who answer lots of questions as being town lol whoops

Rasei
-When we were all voting her she seemed town once she was defending herself and I think I mightve said it? But I felt she was town there just really wasnt any point in changing it to NL since it was already what was happening. At this point who thinks Rasei could be anything but town with two kills?? I dont think those were from town, and no way maf would waste two bulletproofs to clear their own at this point in the game vs trying to just push through and win

Tinylightsflash
-Its hard to gauge a new player, she seems to be trying pretty hard! Which is great! The stun is incriminating but its just as much on me as well and I know I didnt have anything to do with the jail so Im more inclined t think she was the jail or that the jailer is dead but if we think maf can cycle through/share abilities then jailer doesnt really die and I think that theory is pretty on track since I believe thats also going on with our own abilities?? hard to tell with no claiming but

Aeiou
-It me! Uhm unfortunately I understand my position of might be recruit and might be jailer who is maf. Im neither but theres not much of a way to prove any of that so ?? Im not too hung up if I get lynched other than the ratio...

Sammiya
-very quiet but I think thats pretty typical of Sammi so I dont think that means much. It really easy to be quiet maf though... I want to hear more sammi wisdom

Its really past my bedtime so
willing to lynch this phase: TLF, Sammiya, tiki but only if we think hes convert!!, Lucas, and possibly She-ra
not willing to lynch this phase: Lux, Ezz, Rasei

Im practically willing to lynch everyone lmao
I super need to get to bed and depending on how much discussion is happening while I sleep and while Im at work Im not sure Ill be able to respond again but I will try in the morning! ;^; rollover is just a super inconvenient time for me since its an hour before I get off work

So vote: TLF because I know Im not jailer, so it gives me reason to believe she likely is.

E: I did the thing again where I talk about a dead person because thats just how good at maf I am. I copied the list off the front page and I completely forgot Tagi was dead. I was kind of in a hurry last night sorry ;w; since there was no discussion over my entire night??? wtf people are usually active during my night? I wanted some discussion to read and maybe questions to answer if it helped out at all but now I have to go to work until after rollover but Ill check in if I get an opportunity. I feel dumb lmao /thinks back to voting Five after Five was dead

Tinylightsflash III

ezzelin vs.
Luxaria vs. Tinylightsflash
High Seraph vs.
She-Ra vs.
Tiki The Troll vs. Tinylightsflash
Rasei vs.
Tinylightsflash vs.
Aeiou vs. Tinylightsflash
Sammiya vs.

Luxaria wrote:@Tiki

Tiki the Troll wrote:Hmm. Voting Tiny or Aeiou sounds good to me. Vowels was on my radar, after all (what little radar I have right now). Not sure I wanna split the vote though, even this early. So, Vote: Tinylightflash.

Luxaria wrote:This vote on Tiny isn't final, but I'm going with it for now. I do not expect nor want anyone to follow this up without firm reasoning, since we gain nothing from people piling onto this vote. If you vote Tiny and I don't think there's good clause there, I will be suspicious of you.

Did I stutter? :|!

Give me more than not wanting to split the vote.

I didn't wanna split the vote, not even that early, because I wasn't sure I'd have time today to change any vote, and I didn't wanna give any momentum to a lynch, no matter how small my one vote is. =P

Beyond that, I'm still fine voting for either Tiny or Aeiou, given the lack of probably-Mafia jail scenario.

@ Tiki
Okay. I don't like that all three votes have been on Tiny and one is from someone I don't trust much, but meh.

@ Thread
For personal reasons unrelated to the game, I am not really up for giving this thread as much attention as it needs and as I promised. Sorry for letting you down. Judging by the fact that we're three hours from rollover and there's been less than a full page of posts since rollover, I'm guessing it would not have made much of a difference.

I don't know if I care to keep my vote on Tiny or move it at all. I'd point out Lucas has basically been MIA for, what, 48 hours now, like a mafia that's clearly about to win. So who knows. If Lucas is mafia, the likelihood of Rasei being mafia jumps--though she did receive two attempts last night, so who knows.

All the rest, like Sammiya, Tiny, Aeiou, Tiki, and ezz, I don't have it in me to dig into right now, nor all the action claims (obviously the consistently lied / omitted action is the jailer from claims, unless it was Five, which is another thing I'm failing to take time to analyze--and if the jail is mafia, then Tiny being stunned while the jail went out on N0 does make Aeiou look slightly more suspicious), and anything else. I'll say that Tiny and Aeiou seem oddly unconcerned with their position in thread in a few of their comments, but meh.

If there's a miracle amount of attention in thread, maybe I'll be able to post. I should. I hate watching town march into possible MYLO without us actually trying, but this game has been quiet, the roles and actions and reads are unreliable due to the setup, and there's a convert, so yolo.

I'll see if I can muster anything before rollover, but, like I said. I'm not much in the right state to do so.

Aww, Lux. :( I hope nothing too awful.

Though, you do have a good point on Lucas... Hrm. I almost wanna pursue that. But the jail lead is the better one to work off of?

Edit: Meanwhile...
"Okay, three votes on Tiny. Well, one was Lux, I think Aeiou did. That could easily be a defensive vote though. Is that who Lux meant that she didn't trust? Who was the third one again?"
*Looks at vote talley, sees himself.*
"Wait, I did!?"
*Backtracks to last night's post, sees the vote.*

I...actually forgot that I voted at all...
...
...I am useless this game...