Mafia Round Donut | BAGELS WIN!

Goddamnit, Kiyo.

I'm willing to vote for a stunner. I'm certain at least one of them is a bagel. Why would there be two stunners among the doughnuts? It just doesn't make any sense to me.

Kiyokooooo....

It is really, really weird that the stunners keep targeting the same people, though... Maybe it's some kind of lovers-esque stunning role setup and while each stunner sends in a choice the choice is RNGd in some method to make them target the same person?

I'd be willing to vote for a stunner in case they're a bagel, though!

i'm not sure, but it's really weird, i agree. it's happened twice in a row now.

Hmm, interesting theory, Sammie If it IS something like that, throws a wrench in the idea of using stuns to clear Maf, since it's possible neither stunned person was a Mafia target.

The double-stun happening twice is weird because while it's not impossible for there to be double-ups twice, especially given targeting and preference adding variables into the equation, it is low-chance in terms of probability. I cannot guess what mechanical underpinning was introduced into the game (see: Sammie's theory, which I think can be condensed more to the Captain role), but my gut says that if it is more than just a bizarre coincidence, it is more likely for the mechanics to involve two (or more, pending a Captain) players rather than just a single player with a double-stun. So, whatever that means.

Unrelated, someone should chart out Kiyoko's mortality rates one of these days. I feel like it spikes on N1 and N2, especially. I feared this, but hoped for heart over brain. Such is life. So, anyway,

Vote: No Vote

p.s. sorry, dylan, the "e" and "r" are right next to each other and I have dumb fingers. I am so sorry it's a complete coincidence that it happened twice in one week please forgive. you are a very masculine bunny and I respect you as a person and anthropomorphic robotic manbun.

Im willing to vote for a stunner. Im postive Cure is town.

I will, however, pose one question since it at least pertains to something that acted upon me in some capacity.

For the handful of you stating you intend or want to vote for a stunner: Other than the vague conjecture of one player, what is your strategy for successfully pinning a vote onto a stunner? Like you can use process-of-elimination to a small degree with regards to players stunned and killed. That still leaves 8 players. You also cannot rely on a player saying they'd vote for a stunner as, "Well, they're obviously not a stunner." So you still have 8 players, rather than 3-4 options in an ideal "everything is very obviously laid out" scenario, ignoring possible meta/personality speculation which--in some ways--might lead you to one target over another.

Some of you may have other knowledge due to either being a stunner that may have been adversely affected by some other roles, and so you're down for exploring it--while others, still, might have their own information and results to help pin someone down. Of course, we can neither share nor know any of this, but maybe someone is able to lead the pack of wolves and you happen to get a stunner in the vein of a cop subtly nudging votes onto a mafia. So I guess it's possible, if but still amusing to look at the comments being floated about in a general sense, and not just from any one person.

But anyway, I won't tell you all what to do. Just an observation. Carry on.

@Lux about the stunner thing

I admittedly have no idea who the stunners are and was hoping to rely on someone to possibly give this information to us in a way that doesn't break the rules. I do realize the risk that comes with relying on someone like that, however, and have been running the idea through my mind for several hours now.

/folds hands under chin

So let's say someone gives information to you in a way that doesn't break the rules, as you state. What do you do, then, to verify, analyze, respond, and consequently utilize? This said I realize there has to be some level of give and take and risk assessment, but I am curious, and I would like to see a proper plan regardless of tip-toe intention that has been ferreted through the thread insofar. Not just from you, bear in mind, but the thread as a whole.

Thoughts on who is a stunner:

Lucas and Kiyoko cannot be stunners as they are both dead and we still have two stuns.
Cure and Luxaria cannot be stunners as they were both stunned twice when stuns went off.

I think the people who voted drandahl are less likely to have stunned me (since drandahl was fosing me for no particular reason and that was the primary reason for the votes on him, and why wouldn't they stun drandahl instead? and it'd be too obvious to stun me if they're mafia*).

Ninfia
Rasei
drandahl
Tinylightsflash
Sammiya
katze

of these people, i think Ninfia picking lux and then myself as stun targets would be too predictably obvious,  and tiny is unlikely to have stunned me.

Rasei
drandahl
Sammiya
katze

I don't think Rasei is a stunner.

drandahl
Sammiya
katze

of these people i'd be most willing to vote for drandahl, tbh.


*counter point is that drandal being mafia and stunning me is a good idea because it'd be weird to stun me after trying to throw suspicion on me the previous phase, because it'd be really obvious so you then go drandahl can't be mafia because i was stunned wifom wifom etc. however, these people (kiyo (rest her honey glazed soul), five, and tiki) almost got drandahl lynched when there were a ton of other, safer, options so i don't believe they're on a mafia team with him.


edit: note, I think it's very possible that i eliminated one of the stunners somewhere, but I'm PRETTY SURE at least one is in the final list. maybe. anyway, the final list reflects who i'm willing to vote today unless something else comes up.

people I will NOT be voting:

myself
luxaria
rasei

edit edit: even if you throw out all the arbitrary stunner conjecture, I'm still pretty comfortable voting for one of those three people today.

Honestly, it depends on the information that the person ends up using to explain themselves. I can't really say what i would or wouldn't do until I am given the information. If it sounds valid, I'd probably go with it. If it didn't, I'd probably do something else.

Also I am going to go ahead and Vote:dylan because I have good reason to believe that kiyo was not on a bagel team with him, given the idea that dylan is one of the bagels.

If more reasoning can be given to deny the fact that dylan is indeed not a bagel, then I might move my vote, but as it stands, this is the vote i'm going with.

well i mean kiyo was a donut so obviously she wasn't on a bagel team with him so shouldn't everyone have good reason to believe that

i am also leaning towards voting dylan over both you and sammie so that's probably where my vote will end up going, though i'm going to wait a bit to see what other people have to say first so we don't just have people coming in and hopping on a bandwagon if they see one

edit: i... think i might know who the neutral is as well just based on a difference from usual behavior, but maybe i am just crazy

I'm not confident in the vote for Dylan on account of all the suspicion seems to come from his vote for cure, but I also really want to lynch someone today. I'm going to vote: no vote with a view of changing in the future if there's a tie for no lynching or if there's a better option.