New Beginnings [TOWN WIN]

aW NO DRANDAHL! Q A Q/

I'll make sure RIP is put on your tombstone so you won't be drafted into the skeleton war. ; - ;

Not...really...sure...whether to attribute his death to something all super thought out and logical, or if it was random, but since Day 1(?) is apparently primetime for pointing fingers wildly...

vote: Luxaria

Because I love Miku and your display pic is pretty. ; w ;

May your rest be sound and peaceful, Drandahl. :c

As for the discussion that's been brewing, like Nautilus, I immediately wondered if there was a connection between Drandahl's untimely death and his mafia role in the previous game. Alcasync brings up a lot of good points and speculation, however. We can interpret the night zero target in any number of ways, which is amplified by the varying levels of experience among the players, thus adding more variables and uncertainty. I've never played this game before, so I'm not altogether well-acquainted with mafia strategies. For example, I don't know if it's reasonable to presume that a mafia player might pick someone at random. To this end, even if she is a wolf in sheep's clothing, Alcasync's speculations are probably a good starting point to bridge the discussion (and thanks for the welcome, by the way!).

In addition to what was covered, could it also be a charade of sorts? Maybe the mafia is experienced and wished to select an innocuous target as a form of misdirection? Or perhaps it's the inverse of Megrid's situation where instead of picking a player that was eliminated early, they elected to target a player that lasted right until the end of the previous game, thus granting potentially more playtime to other players. Okay, I'm grasping at straws, even if the mental image of benevolent mafia is rather amusing. But I suppose some form of discussion is better than nothing.

I'm going to avoid placing a vote for now because it feels too early and I'd rather observe the pieces as they fall into place. I am quite surprised to be voted so soon, even if I do admit that my display picture is exceptionally pretty (and I love Miku lots <33). I'm not quite sure how best to offer rebuttal other than actively try to ferret out the mafia, so I'll follow up on the discussions as the day commences. Hopefully we'll hear from the others soon enough and get some more thoughts and opinions!

Wow, what a well-written post!

Luxaria wrote:Maybe the mafia is experienced and wished to select an innocuous target as a form of misdirection?

This is something I was considering, myself! I remember in past games I played, if mafia was full of experienced players, they'd leave all the experienced town players alive so that no one would ask, "Why did these people die, but not those other people?"

I think there are too few veteran players in this game for that to be the strategy, but it's something I thought about!

It's possible that the mafia may have targeted drandahl over veterans in the game because it would be too suspicious to leave only the veterans alive near the end of the game! Given the list of veterans alcasync posted, I agree that this is an unlikely strategy because there doesn't seem to be a lot of veterans. Newbies outweigh the veterans by a lot, and it might get really suspicious when there's, say, 2 newbies and 3 veterans around if they continue that line of reasoning for kills. It's certainly possible, though, and I don't want to rule it out. 

With respect to Luxaria's post about there being a benevolent mafia - that's an interesting viewpoint! I think that might be a plausible theory if the mafia had no idea who to choose to kill, and decided to eschew Megrid for the night kill in favour of drandahl who had played longer in the other game, but I think it's unlikely.  

In general: I thought about things a bit and I feel like in a game like this with very few role powers, I'd think that the mafia would probably want to act efficiently. Because there's no vigilantes or anything, and the mafia has no roles with powers, it benefits mafia more to pick specific kills rather than throwing things out at random/being altruistic with their kills and hoping they stick, because their kills are the only things they have to assist them in the game. I don't know if I'm wording myself right here, so I'm sorry if this seems confusing. 

I like the theories presented so far, so I'm going to lay them out. I addressed 4 and 5 earlier, which is why I don't have a little note next to them. 

1. Mafia may have thought drandahl was a threat of some sort from their posts in the previous game. I would think if this was the case then at least one member of the mafia would have read or participated in the previous game to have known how drandahl plays, but it would be really hard to figure out who has/hasn't done the former.
   
2. Mafia chose someone who they thought would not be protected. This is an interesting theory and I think it's possible! Like I said earlier, I feel like it's in the mafia's best interest to target people strategically because they can't stun the doctor and they can't do anything but send in a night kill, so it's possible that drandahl might have been chosen because they weren't a likely target for protection. 
   
3. Mafia chose someone at random. We can't really rule this out or say this is truth, but it's possible if the mafia was two newbies who didn't know who to target at all. 
   
4. Mafia chose drandahl because they were inexperienced because mafia is full of experienced players. 
   
5. Mafia killed drandahl out of benevolence. 
   

Since there's nothing that can investigate and it's pretty early in the game, we can't actively disprove any of these theories. They serve as good discussion, though! 

As for voting, I think I'll vote: Rasei! This isn't a serious vote by all means and is kind of like... me poking players who haven't posted yet (alcasync already voted for Sammiya, so it leaves Megrid and Rasei). I'll likely unvote from this later today, but I'd like to see what everyone thinks about the events of last night!

I'm sorry this is really long, I like to babble a lot. ;;

drandahl wrote:When this is all over, it will be something we can look back on and laugh. Well, except for me. Because I'm dead.



Good luck guys, I'll be rooting for you from the bleachers of heaven.

Aaablblbl nonotthatpicallthefeels... :< RIP Drandahl...

I'm not really sure what to say to this other than being glad I didn't die N0 again. I see a lot of good points made, particularly the list of reasons Nautilus noted them down as, but being so early in the game, I don't really have a strong opinion against anyone right now, and I, unfortunately, don't have much to add.

I do see the coincidence that a maf in the last game is the first to die here. It's pretty hard not to ignore that and think something off, but all that tells me is that the mafia in this game might've at least read the last game, if nothing else. And that's assuming it wasn't actually random and just so happened to be Drandahl they picked.

I think for now I'll stick with No Vote. I might change it, but I wanna hear what else people have to say of it.

ON my phone, so can't really give long posts at the moment!

Drandahl is a interestng choice for the night kill. Nautilus has made pretty much all the points I would've, though. But for now I'l Vote: no lynch.

I'm not really side-eyeing the no vote or no lynch vote because we still have plenty of time to vote, but I think that we need to lynch someone today, because we don't have any power roles to help us figure out who mafia might be during the night. I think our best chance of getting information is voting and discussion during the day!

Edit: Also Kiyoko, you missed nautilus's vote!

Before I dig into Nautilus' list and the other posts, I think I should expand upon my wild suggestion of a benevolent mafia, given its traction. I know it's a bit of a stretch, and were I roleplaying I'd consider this in the realm of out-of-character, but the reason I proposed the idea largely stems from our own game master, Kiyoko. I'm only loosely acquainted with her through another board (and her lovely art <33), but from reading parts of the previous game and observing how she has structured this one, it's easy to see her character: she wishes to foster growth and encourage newcomers. As she more-or-less invited and is thus familiar with most of us, it stands to reason that she would attach herself to individuals of similar character--especially those from the previous boards that she has perhaps known for years. So, this caused me to wonder if the mafia were of similar experience and mind as Kiyoko and thus wished to raise newcomers from infancy before leading them to the slaughter. I'm not sure if this line of reasoning is inappropriate or not given that it uses out-of-game information, but, then again, we keep referring back to the previous game... which raises another point!

So, as of now we've heard from most posters. With the exception of Mr. Alice and now possibly Sammiya, everyone that's posted has highlighted the link between Drandahl and last game's mafia. There was also a comment as to who followed the previous game. Our player list is Alcasync, Nautilus, Rasei, Sammiya, Megrid, Mr. Alice, and myself, not counting the deceased. Of those, Alcasync, Megrid, and Mr. Alice all played in the previous game, and Sammiya moderated it. Nautilus has previously stated that they read it, and I know for myself that I read a good portion of it. I would assume Megrid followed some of it, or at least checked the thread when it concluded. The only wild card here would be Rasei, but I imagine curiosity over the first game ever would lead to investigation. So now it's more a matter of if we let that influence speculation, but it does seem to have been the first thought among most of the players.

Now replying to others (sorry, I can be a bit of a rambler? x-x).

For Alcasync, there are probably too few veterans, it's true, though there's the possibility of a mixed mafia where the experienced one suggested Drandahl, thus leaving town as having two veterans and three non-veterans. If it was a charade, that'd cause the majority veterans (aka town veterans) to turn on the non-veterans, which would be more even in numbers. We also still aren't completely sure about Rasei. In this case, we might be dealing with a mixed mafia and veteran majority for town. I'm not committed to this idea, but more exploring it. It kind of hinges on Rasei's eventual response.

I am curious, though, as it'd help me to further my own reads. Earlier today you said that you didn't expect Drandahl to be the first victim. Which player or players did you expect? Since you suggested mafia would target stronger players first, with perhaps the exception of Megrid given their limited playtime in the last game, were you thinking it'd be yourself or Sammiya? Although, Sammiya hasn't truly played yet, either, so they might get the same treatment as Megrid (I swear I'm not trying to push this altrustic mafia agenda!).

For Nautilus, I agree that it makes sense for the mafia to operate efficiently. In a vacuum with no saves and no lynches, we have two more day cycles after this one before mafia wins. In practice, with a fewer number of players it'd increase the likelihood of us bringing the mafia down to 1 player or getting a save off, but the point still stands.

As far as your theories go, I addressed the first above by stating it's certain all of us (except maybe Rasei) are familiar with the previous game. Granted, that doesn't necessarily mean we're well-versed in Drandahl's playing style. I think your second theory is very likely, if not probable. It's actually a relatively elegant and simple answer to why Drandahl would be targetted... beyond being randomized, as is your third point!

Okay, sorry, I'm long-winded. I look forward to seeing Rasei's post and a longer one from Sammiya!

alcasync wrote:Edit: Also Kiyoko, you missed nautilus's vote!

I did! I was so distracted by the lovely long posts. And while I was typing this I was ninja'd by another one, which I will have to read later because I am going to miss my train otherwise.

You guys are so lovely. Long posts are so lovely. You are the best newbies (and veterans) ever I love you all.

Phew, wow! I'm really impressed by the level of speculation here! Um, to be honest, I was expecting to die. I think I did pretty well in the last game too, and since I'm a veteran I thought I would certainly be a high priority target. The only reason I can think of for my still being alive, aside from the obvious chance that I might be mafia, is that mafia thought I might be protected by the doctor?

Luxaria, I find your analysis of behavior based on this being a newbie game, and also Kiyoko's personality, really fascinating! I've never thought about that before but I think you have a very good point. I don't know if it necessarily helps us narrow things down, but I find your argument pretty convincing! I have to go make sure my lunch isn't burning on the stove so I'll end this post here but I'll definitely think some more about all of this.

Wow, you guys are highly analytical (Maybe I should asked if Luxaria if her first name is Shinichi.). I did read the last game, but joined the forum to late to play in it. (I think I joined the day after the sign ups.) I played a few mafia games in other places before, but I wouldn't say I'm a veteran.

As for drandahl getting killed, I want to say I'm a bit surprise. If it is new members being Mafia, it could be because of his actions in the last game. (Through I would vote for her right now, for post that picture of Wizardmon. Dammit I still tear up at that scene even after a decade.)

I would have post sooner, but I was at work from 8:50am to 3:30pm today and and add two and half hours of travel time on top of that. For my reaction of being lynch is: *sadface*

I'm going to save my vote for now.

alcasync wrote:I'm not really side-eyeing the no vote or no lynch vote because we still have plenty of time to vote, but I think that we need to lynch someone today, because we don't have any power roles to help us figure out who mafia might be during the night. I think our best chance of getting information is voting and discussion during the day!

I kind of agree with alcasync here, actually! I know that at first glance this seems kind of weird and against the kneejerk "playing safe", but her reasoning here is sound. 

In a normal game, I feel like it'd be okay to no lynch or no vote the first day, since that gives doctors more time to protect, roles that can investigate others more chances at investigation, and so on. But like she says here, we really don't have any roles that can investigate or stun in the night, and by examining voting records if we do vote and lynch someone, we can possibly find mafia members. I'll unvote for now, since Rasei's posted, but I'm a little worried since everyone seems to be all tied up right now! 

Luxaria - that explanation is really interesting, and it explains the benevolent mafia theory a lot better! I think it's possible that could be the case: for example, the mafia specifically not targeting a player to give them a chance to play, and so on and so forth. While I don't think that it could be a valid possibility in a normal game, the possibility exists in a newbie game, since we're all either new players or old veterans who are rusty and it might be plausible that the mafia just wanted to give people the chance to play. I do think that this is unlikely, but your explanation makes me think it's a bit more plausible than I had thought before! 

Rasei: I noticed you said you were a bit surprised by drandahl's death; were you expecting someone else to die, or was it just kind of weird? Was it something along the lines of alcasync's reasoning regarding drandahl being an unexpected victim? 

And it's no problem at all, regarding posting times! Rollover is pretty late for me, so I understand not being around when all the action starts. 

I also want to let everyone know that my activity might be sporadic in the coming week, due to life stuff! I'll try my hardest to be active, though.

nautilus wrote:
Rasei: I noticed you said you were a bit surprised by drandahl's death; were you expecting someone else to die, or was it just kind of weird? Was it something along the lines of alcasync's reasoning regarding drandahl being an unexpected victim? 

It was just kind of weird, with something along Alcasync's reasoning. As for lynching today, I kind of feel the same way. I'm not entirely sure who to vote for through.

Aw, don't worry about posting later in the day, Rasei! It's fine!

I agree that you make sense as a high priority target, Alcasync, both for the mafia and the doctor. I do like this spin that suggests Drandahl as a target to possibly dodge doctor protection, but that's making a big assumption that you would be the doctor's target, which isn't unreasonable in and of itself. I suppose the main thing I wonder is why the mafia would target you over the other veterans (assuming they aren't mafia)? You could make the argument that the doctor is more disposed to pick a veteran, and thus picking Drandahl removes the 33% (or 50% or 100%) chance of getting blocked. The more I think about it, Mr. Alice or Drandahl may be the only logical kill targets for night zero, if we use the code-of-honor, "Let the newbies get experience!" assumption. So why Drandahl over Mr. Alice?

Moving along, I know Nautilus agrees (and Rasei seems of similar mind), but, Alca, can you explain more of your reasoning for pushing a lynch today?