真・女神転生 SHIN MEGAMI TENSEI Mafia [DAY 4]

The lady of the fount is gonna be handling rollovers ok guys ok. By the way, no vote and no lynch are not the same and both are perfectly valid vote options!!!

Sorry for forgetting about the ratio!! I'll edit it into rollover when I get to work. The original (and still current) ratio is 8T:3M:2N. A vote tally and PM replies will happen too ok

vote:no lynch


Will explain later she I'm on my computer and not trying to sleep and having nightmares about mafia killing everyone.

Sorry for the lack of posts; I injured my right wrist badly a few days ago. Don't expect a ton of posts from me because of this.

Quick summary of events so far. My notes will be in blue, facts corroborated by rollovers will be in black, facts by other people presented in red.

- There are two stunners. As with what others have been saying, I believe there is one mafia stunner and one town stunner. I don't believe in a game of this size Lucas would stack up roles on either side, though given that only one night has passed we can't for certain say that these are dedicated or conditional stuns.

For what it's worth, I'm not actually sure how to tease out the targets and determine which target is mafia aligned or town aligned. Like I said in Gakuen Mafia, I'm inclined to think town stunners will act more randomly or try to flush out quieter players on n0, and mafia stunners will act on stronger players n0, but I'd consider both alca and Tet fairly strong players so  ¯\_(°_°)_/¯


- No one died. Either as a result of a protection, or because someone was stunned out of the night kill, or mafia did not submit a kill. I'm not sure which theory I subscribe to, for what it's worth. My initial instinct was that it was either the mafia being stunned out of a kill or mafia chose to not submit one (since the first few nights are the prime time for doing tricky things with NKs). However, given Lucas' BOYT answer and given that alca said she believes she may have been protected (I'm curious re: her answer to Cure) + she's a prime target for kills if she's town, it's possible that the kill failing and disappearing happened.

- Tet has claimed acting (corroborated by Kiyoko), alca believes she was protected and also did not act (corroborated by Kiyoko).

- Kiyoko has claimed limited use watcher, saw seven people acted last night, can confirm Tet and alca's comments about acting or not. I have no reason to doubt this ability right now, given that someone can easily ask her whether or not they acted and if she can't give the correct answer (to multiple individuals, because she can presumably see everyone), then that blows the claim apart into smitheroons.

For what it's worth, this is also way more information than what she did last game, which pretty much all amounted to "I can never vote, for reasons, also I have this really cool role and can't say what it is but I know Lucas is town".

If we're going to look between Kiyoko vouching against alca-NK-sender theories (and chinomi having a reason to vote Tet) vs Tet vouching for himself, I think the weight of Kiyoko and chinomi's statements > Tet vouching for himself if we assume one of the two sent in the NK and it was blocked.

I did an action last night, is that correct, Kiyoko?

Rasei is not on the list of people who acted last night.

IF YOu SEE THAT THE THREAD TITLE DOESNT HAVE THE CURRENT PHASE ITS BECAUSE i ALWAYS FORGET TO DO IT JUST CARRY ON (THANKS FOR UPDATING THE SCROLLING THING SO DILIGENTLY KIYO THATS THE THING THAT MAKES ME REMEMBER TO CHANGE THE THREAT TITLE TBH)

Yes um! I received a message from the host which made me inclined to think I had protection on N0. I'm not sure how much I'm comfortable sharing at this point, since I don't know how it would help thread to know any more details. Obviously I won't share if it's a continuous protection or if it was just for that night. ;v;

Okay Alca, that's all I wanted to know. I'm gonna go ahead and toss my vote: no lynch in now before I forget. I think we're in a good place where we are today and we can use this next night phase to get more information on our N0 stun targets.

n★util★s wrote:Sorry for the lack of posts; I injured my right wrist badly a few days ago.

:c Feel better.

---

Hee-ho let's go.

Rasei wrote:I did an action last night, is that correct, Kiyoko?

Kiyoko wrote:Rasei is not on the list of people who acted last night.

I'm assuming Rasei is trying to test Kiyo's claim here. Smart money is on Kiyo telling the truth. I don't have any inclination to think she's lying as that would be too bold a play to just have blow up immediately. She backed up my acting last night and I'm guessing Rasei is going to say she didn't act last night.

alcasync wrote:I am also suspicious of drandahl for thinking that T3tsuya vouching for himself is somehow worth the equal weight of chinomi having vague reasons to vote T3t and Kiyoko claiming that I could not have sent in the kill!

Can I ask why it has to be a Alcasync v Tetsuya thing? Alca not sending in the NK and Tetsuya not sending in the NK are not mutually exclusive. I do understand the reasoning that the stunned targets are suspicious, it seems the more immediately obvious choice, but there are scenarios where neither of us sent in the NK that hold water objectively even without anybody else's information modifying it.

No one has said a single thing against those scenarios. I don't think they will either. I think it's really easy to agree that they're more likely given the information we have.



Kiyo is vouching for Alca, and I know the only thing I did last night was my action that got blocked. I'd think that would mean the info chinomi has to vote me is more info clearing Alca than info damning me. If she wants to back that up, I'm sure she could if she actually has solid information and not a hunch. I'd like to hear from her.

Since Kiyo is provably telling the truth, I am not willing to believe Alca sent in the NK. I am also willing to place money on the fact no one here right now has actual information saying that I did either, because that information doesn't exist. That will stay consistent all game even if I am put under scrutiny. I am willing to be under the spotlight at any point to test that if that would clear it up for anyone. I could go into my role more if that's required, but right now I don't think it would be advantageous for us.

Alca saying that she received a message that she was protected makes me think it's likely she got hit. I don't see a huge reason for her to have received a message like that otherwise. And if she was lying, or that's not how the protection role works, the protection role would have been able to call that out as bullshit. They haven't.



Right now, the sneaky maf no kill option / Alca being protected from the kill option has more evidence speaking for it than the theory of either Alca or I being the NK senders. That's weight enough, for me, to vote NL. Especially when nobody has died yet and the game is so small that if we mislynch we have major problems. If they have a kill role we can lose almost instantly.

So unless anybody has evidence that will sway me, I'm keeping my vote.
I don't think Alca sent in the NK. I'm a little suspicious of those who do at this point. She provably didn't act.

Vote: No Lynch

I'm willing to give T3t the benefit of the doubt for now, and we are in a good position right now.

I generally enjoy lynches more than no lynches because I feel like they provide more information than no lynches, and prevents the inevitable "defer to no lynch" that ends up stalling the flow of discussion. I think this is probably a view that arose out of previous games that I've played, where everyone kind of just automatically no lynched on D1 because it was just... a thing?

That being said, I wouldn't mind a no lynch with what's going on, given that we do have some leads (see: the missing NK, the stuns, information put forth so far by other players). The size of this game makes alignment-stalling a somewhat viable strategy early on because of the risk of mislynches & smaller player count though I will suggest that if we go down this no lynching path that tomorrow we should aim to lynch someone instead of going for a no lynch on D2.

I'm going to toss up a vote: no lynch for now so I just have something next to my name, but I'll check in before rollover and see how things go.

@Tet/other people who got my reference -

spoilers for undertale, don't look if you haven't beaten the game at least twice/haven't gone through the bad ending:

...i'm still reading lucas's sentence and laughing bc ~~what a wild ride~~~!!!

i think i'm gonna go no lynch just for now becaus e regardless of whether or not mafia had a NK opportunity tonight i don't think we have too much to go off of ;___;

HOWEVER
@kiyo does your "7 people acting" include yourselr or no???

When is rollover again? Is it in 13 minutes?

I'm going to vote: no lynch in the interest of maintaining town numbers early in the game.

Umm try 5 hours plot