T3tsuya wrote:I insisted on nothing, and you will find that Alca has died early more times without my involvement than with it. She is a strong player and everyone knows that. I've traditionally gone for you first if available, after Kiyo of course.
It might please you greatly to know that to this day, I cannot type "rollover" without wincing. At any rate, I do not suspect you of anything more than any other player, other than that there will eventually be a
disagreement between you and Tiki at some point. I was more or less trying to work with Cure's statements and, after a fashion, play devil's advocate (coincidentally on my 666th post) as part of the process of due consideration. I am curious to see her response to your rebuttal.
As for the actions hitting correct targets and using them in a plan, I
do have a theory I worked on all yesterday which influenced my role action lottery during N0. It has nothing to do with false clears, and I was going to wait until Seraph posted his action claim and let town decide if it didn't mind possibly arming mafia with strategies (though, I would imagine with three heads clunked together they would have figured this out on their own). But... after Tiki's post...
The theory I had was that since alcasync had a high chance of being protected, I wondered if mafia might anticipate this and place a NK upon a target from the next-best tier, throwing in one or more of their role actions as a bus onto alcasync from this target. If their bus goes through, then they most likely dodge a protect on the NK. If their bus does not go through, then they still (probably) kill a high priority target. This depends on how much you anticipate alcasync receiving the majority of the protects, of course.
So, with this in mind, my bus targets were T3tsuya and High Seraph. Joining them in the next-best tier were Cure and Ninfia, with drandahl as a possibility. I figured it was most likely for T3tsuya to be hit as either the primary NK target in an alcamaf universe, or as the kill/bus combo to hit alcatown. I double-dipped my odds and picked someone else from this tier, High Seraph. I excluded myself since I've never been touched on N0, plus I might have been hit with secondary protect focus and statistically not need the bus safety net.
But, more to the point, if I bussed the NK across two others then I have a chance to learn more information, after some caution/assessment. Thus, I chose T3tsuya because he is a pain in the ass as mafia, but very valuable as town, and so saving him or sniping a T3tmaf outweighed the risk of redirecting a kill onto him. From there, High Seraph seemed more likely to fit into the bus-to-alca plan than the others.
Anyway, I went for a bus to contest mafia's usage of it, since I believe they're more likely to focus on that role. Evidently mine did not go through, since two others have claimed a T3tsuya stun. Unless Cure chose High Seraph as her stun, or someone is lying, then we know either Blaire (or Seraph, if he elected to bus) got the bus off. Or the mafia got it and lied in their claims, which may be very likely.
Either way, a direct approach is probably the more practical expectation and mafia might not have engineered such plans. There are some flaws/understated aspects in my theory and attempted role action, but I'll resist rambling further.