Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

I'm 99% sure you clicked it by accident because I turned off that button activating by default because that button pisses me off

ezzelin wrote:

Entelechy wrote:I have since realized that passing to a safe number does greatly increase the chance of a ball reaching a spiker (2/9 instead of 2/13).

uhm... I don't think so. would you mind explaining how you got that?

Like I said, I am not a math person. My reasoning is as this.

There are 13 players: 4 Mafia, 9 Town.

Ninfia has said that there are two spikers each night. So 2 of the 9 townpeople are spikers.

If we pick from own safe numbers, (only from among town), then there is a two in nine chance that the safe person the ball goes to last is a spiker, right?

And if we just pick a random number, then its two spikers among 13 possible choices, making the chances 2/13.

Again, I am not a numbers person, but that's the logic I see.


I have a headache that is just getting worse, and I may been soon incapacitated. If you don't hear from me again before rollover, everyone seems to hold Kiyoko in high regard, so I will vote as they do.

ezzelin wrote:I've stated the same earlier though differently phrased;
serving to the player they want benched definitely gives them the highest chances of said player being benched.

e.g.: let's say they're trying to bench player N.
serving to player N: 1/3 (odds of passing to maf) + 7/12*1/12*10/12 (odds of passing safely, second person passing back to them, and them not being spiker) = 37%
serving to a different player, odds of player N being benched as second player: 1/12*4/12 = 3%
serving to a different player, odds of player N being benched as third player: 7/12*1/12*10/12 = 4%

unless math is very much not the mafia's thing, the intended target is always the first player. and if it's not, we have no way of finding out the intended target anyway, given how low the odds of them actually being benched in a roundabout way are. case closed.

I thought you had done the math out on that, but I just wanted to explore it for my own sake. Plus I anticipated you double-checking that statement later on if I didn't, haha. Thanks for following up on it! If I could ask one question (this is embarrassing...), where are you getting the 7/12 from in your equation?

Anyway! I don't think the vote tally has been updated to reflect Aeiou receiving a vote from Lucas? So it's
Aeiou 3
Tiki 2
with Cur3 and Chinomi at 1.

I want to put a vote on Tiki to tie him with Aeiou, but I'm also intrigued by chinomi and want to see her post something. I feel like if I vote on Tiki it might make the activity check on chinomi less effective. So I guess for now, since I want to vote instead of sitting here:

Vote: chinomi

p.s. how come Lucas is always just so adorable even when he's not trying to be?

This literally does not matter but ezz, since being a spiker and being town are not statistically independent, your calculations don't accurately reflect the probability a player being spiker conditional on them being town.

But the exact numbers don't matter here the overall math still works out in that it's in town's favor to pass to "safe" numbers.

Okay quick post on quick break. I plan to make a longer, much more detailed post, but that might be something I only get to write a little at a time over the course of the next couple hours, heh. I really want to write it though, because it really looks like I have to at least attempt to explain my Tiki logic (as this is one again a moment where you all are just confusing the fuck outta me).

First though, most inclined to vote Vowels or Chinomi. Vowels strictly out of self preservation, making it harder to get me at the top, or tied for the top, heh.

Chinomi because I prefer to leave these sorts of mysteries up to RNG, and that would tie her with Vowels.

Beyond that...well, I've been at work, spent the next evening and morning with a friend, then work again (this time at a place I hate with a person I despise, yay!). I've been busy otherwise too, giving me little time to look at this thing, so, I really don't have a read on anybody.

(Come to think of it, I don't even know when rollover is...going to ask our host, heh).

I just want to somehow contribute.

Luxaria wrote:

ezzelin wrote:If I could ask one question (this is embarrassing...), where are you getting the 7/12 from in your equation?

and this is why I always post my processes. my sleepy head derped out and thought 7+4 was 12..., thank you for spotting that!

ezzelin wrote:
e.g.: let's say they're trying to bench player N.
serving to player N: 1/3 (odds of passing to maf) + 8/12*1/12*7/9 (odds of passing safely, second person passing back to them, and them not being spiker) = 38%
serving to a different player, odds of player N being benched as second player: 1/12*4/12 = 3%
serving to a different player, odds of player N being benched as third player: 8/12*1/12*7/9 = 4%

corrected now.

edit: actually wow no I am being dumb but it should be ok now
lesson of the day, don't take day naps and then math
not that there's actually much difference in the final percentage

high seraph wrote:i dont know what 90% of drandahl's drinks are and i feel kinda left out??? why can't you have some guaraná antarctica for a change dran, like, fo real bro

Drandahl can feel drool pool in his mouth as he notices the tasty and foreign look of guaraná antarctica. He goes to buy a bottle from the vending machine, but looses control of his arm when selecting the beverage. Drandahl watches in horror as the button for Orange Fanta is pressed. Damn. He hates Fanta, but turns his head in some direction and starts smiling at nothing.

He assumes the mysterious and unknown force guiding his life has no interest in foreign brands.

Spoiler:

high seraph wrote:

dranball wrote:Later in the game if we gain a more complete picture of our jersey numbers, I wonder if we can intentionally pass to who we suspect to be mafia.

Why would anyone... want to pass the ball to the mafia...? If a player passes to the mafia, they're instantly benched. If they are benched, they will never be able to tell us what Jersey # they passed the ball to. Basically we won't ever learn Mafia Jersey #s?

We can't call out what jersey number we're going to target, but I wondered if we could say "I'm going to try to pass the ball to Ez". I'm giving up that train of thought entirely though, after a quick response from Coach.

dranbahl wrote:We can't call out what jersey number we're going to target, but I wondered if we could say "I'm going to try to pass the ball to Ez". I'm giving up that train of thought entirely though, after a quick response from Coach.

I'm guessing you wanted to try to target mafia jerseys as a way to investigate, and I thought about that too, but like, let's say you know a maf jersey number and you pass to it and you die. While that person might be mafia, it could also just be that you were third pass and not spiker, so that's not conclusive. Let's say you survive. No guarantee that you got the ball in the first place. Still not conclusive.

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ wrote:

dranbahl wrote:We can't call out what jersey number we're going to target, but I wondered if we could say "I'm going to try to pass the ball to Ez". I'm giving up that train of thought entirely though, after a quick response from Coach.

I'm guessing you wanted to try to target mafia jerseys as a way to investigate, and I thought about that too, but like, let's say you know a maf jersey number and you pass to it and you die. While that person might be mafia, it could also just be that you were third pass and not spiker, so that's not conclusive. Let's say you survive. No guarantee that you got the ball in the first place. Still not conclusive.

Yep, no way to reap any investigative fruits unless you plan to be the secondly passed player (i.e. everyone passes to you, and you pass to some jersey you think is tied to a player). But yeah, all of this is illegal by the rules of Mafiaball, so I'm happy to drop it.

okay I'm home. I'm going to write up a massive (for me) speculation post going over each player individually and idk maybe some potential strategies going forward into this game.

If I were to change my vote (I'm still pretty okay with it, but... shrug), I would change it to one of: Chinomi, Drandahl, Tiki, or Entelechy

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ wrote:This literally does not matter but ezz, since being a spiker and being town are not statistically independent, your calculations don't accurately reflect the probability a player being spiker conditional on them being town.

But the exact numbers don't matter here the overall math still works out in that it's in town's favor to pass to "safe" numbers.

noticed while editing, yeah, I'm derping out all over the place tonight. it should be fine now, and it doesn't make much of a difference on the final percentage tbh.

and uh. yeah the math works out that way, but the math is dependent on mafia passing to usernames and not knowing our safe numbers, but they do actually know three people out of which two are safe numbers, so that doesn't really hold up.
and by passing to safe numbers we technically condemn them to be the third player who has the highest chance to be benched, if the mafia manages to serve to one of them.

so yeah. it might still be our best shot, but it might as well have us kill off confirmed townies.

slow laugh and rolls into the distance

Mafia serves to usernames, so they actually know which of the three numbers isn't safe*


*only if one of the three numbers is a mafia jersey. if all three are town, they're just as in the dark on who is who as we are.

Well I mean, my thought process is, confirmed town should pass to safe numbers anyway because then the death chance is just the chance of not being third+spiker, whereas if they pass to an unknown, their death chance is the chance of the unknown not being maf with the chance of not being third+spiker, which is going to be higher no matter what.

I guess we could ask town to sacrifice themselves for the greater good by not passing to safe numbers, but since maf is going to be going after the confirmed town, and two of those confirmed town are two of the safe numbers, the ball's likely going to a safe number anyway.

Alternatively, the worst case scenario is, assume me, Lux and Rasei are doomed, and town has three night phases starting from this point before there are no clear town left, and play accordingly (which is what you'd do in a normal maf game with guaranteed kills, so it shouldn't be too bad as long as we play like we're used to playing).