Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ wrote:So this removal of pass PMs is a "from now on" kind of thing, and we can still work with the spec we already have, right? Since it's not like we can just... forget information...

Yeah! i can't make everyone forget. Sorry about the trouble, but you're welcome to proceed with what you have from here, since its not the whole story.

HmmmMmmmMMmm this makes things slightly more difficult.

chinomi wrote:

C☆r☆ wrote:if I had to vote someone who had already posted in the thread, it would be chinomi.

inserts sleepy joke about how that'd make sense considering im mafia like 90% of the time

I know this feel

good lord

I think I've only ever been maf in one game??? Anyway I don't have anything to say other than I didn't touch the ball ;w; I feel bad lynching anyone because there's no reason to even Lynch anyone ahhh can I just 
Vote: no Lynch
For Now??

Also my Internet has been down and my cell service in my house is awful and when I went to try and bold that I somehow pasted this link instead:
https://vine.co/v/e936MH2zt5M

*transfer student coughs nervously*

So, let me see if I understand.

We get benched if we pass to someone on the Away Team (Mafia).

Which means there is (currently) a *counts on fingers* 33%ish chance of accidentally benching ourselves on any given night (4 out of 12 options to pass to resulting in death). Now my skill with probability isn't great, but doesn't that work out to a 54%ish chance of either the first passer or second passer knocking themselves out in a given night?

Isn't revealing the number of the person you passed to kinda a death warrant for the number revealed, then, since it gives the other town people a number that they know they can pass to safely for certain, given that someone has already passed to them and survived?

I know its to my disadvantage to point this out (I could hoard these safe numbers to pass to myself), but this is a practice match, after all.

To me, this suggests an interesting dynamic, where people might claim passes, but not the number to whom they passed least they consign that person to death next night. So while a Home person could reveal a pass number, the other Home team would have excellent motive to lynch that person, least they spill their own jersey number next as someone safe to pass to. Revealing jersey numbers, then, would be an end-game strategy, like the detective revealing who they are.

C☆r☆ wrote:

C☆r☆ wrote:People who have not posted since rollover:

► Entelechy
► Cur3/T3tsuya
► ezzelin
► Drandahl

C☆r☆ wrote:I am most suspicious of T3tsuya out of anyone in the game even though he's not even here. Not enough to vote him, and it is entirely based on this PROBABILITY of the three of us being on the same team.

but it's there. scowls @ him from across the net.

If I wanted you on my ass this hard I would have hinted at it in the locker room. I didn't hint at all. Even though you were clearly looking and 'No" means "No" at least half of the time for me.

I will scowl right back at you don't even give me that look. I know I look great in these gym shorts.



I've kind of been in and out today but here I am now. There's not much to disagree on in terms of speculation right now from what I've seen. Especially given I'm still kind of trying to understand how everything works now with the quick changes to PMs that are sent out.

I've mostly skimmed, I'm going to give a better read tonight if I can. But for what it's worth, I didn't receive any PM about being passed to or that I was a spiker. From what I understand so far I can't outright claim my number but I can at least divulge I was set to pass to Number 5 if the ball came to me.

THERE'S SO MUCH SLANDER IN THAT POST I DOn'T EVEN KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN. NO I'M NOT BLUSHING, THIS IS ANGER.


I was actually going to pass to 4, fyi. Which was not a wise move, probably. Because four is death. I never mentioned it before because it wasn't relevant since I never got the ball, but I think this is kind of funny.

So, it occurred to me maybe it wouldn't be clear why one would pass to numbers that were known to be safe, and the answer (yet again) is probability.

Assuming that no one wants to be benched by the Away Team and that it is preferable for someone else to be benched instead of oneself, then there is a significantly higher probably of being benched if you pick randomly.

Namely, if you pick a safe number, your chance of being benched is roughly 12.5% if I did my math right (very real chance I didn't), instead of the previously mentioned 33%. In fact, if a number is known (and its not your number) you chance of being benched if you pick that number is even lower, because presumably other town folk will be picking that number, decreasing the chance that someone picked your number.

Wow numbers are hard enough to comprehend, now we are throwing in percentages! But I think things have been revised and we wont even know if we received or passed a ball anymore? so its sort of irelevant

If people ever figure out my number, I don't mind being passed to. I think un-cleared people are probably okay passing to a number they think is clear (though bear in mind that only two out of those three numbers are town, and the last one is kind of a wash).

Talking things out for myself, feel free to skip to tl;dr:

TL;DR PASS TO SAFE NUMBERS the math works out for town.

That said, given that we don't get pass PMs from now on, I think we really do need to lynch and narrow down some numbers, because we're not getting much info from night phases from here on out.

I'm heading to bed but I will for sure be online and speculating actively tomorrow.

But just so I might possibly have some discussion to wake up to.

vote: ezzelin

as an activity vote, will change this when she shows up, unless whatever ezzelin replies with is super sketch, in which case I'll leave that vote there.

Of everyone in thread, I'd be most inclined to vote the people who haven't really made substantial posts yet, because I think with a setup like this, it's in maf's interest to keep discussion moving as slowly as possible so the people driving discussion forward lean town to me. Which means that my tentative "will not vote" list is: Me, Lux, Rasei, Raie, Entelechy, Tet. Everyone else is fair game.

good morn-- oh look a vote on me



I didn't post yet because rollover is at 3 am for me, and I definitely am not going to squander sleep when I actually can manage to sleep just to be up for rollover.

first of all, nice kill! ...because I find it extremely funny that's how they call it yet in this game it means the opposite.

extremely amused that the numbers were consecutive; even more so cause I was set to pass to 7 which falls in the order nicely (though I obviously did not get the ball).

now let's see...



each player has a 1/3 (33%) chance to bench themselves when passed the ball, provided they pass randomly. additionally, should the first player pass successfully (2/3 or 67% chance), the second player once again has a 1/3 chance to pass to maf, bringing us to 2/9 (22%) chance of second player passing to maf.

combined, that means 5/9 (56%) chance of either first or second player being benched by passing to maf, but these odds don't hold up if we pass to numbers that we know are safe.

one of the numbers we have (8,9,10) has a 4/11 (36%) chance of not being safe (4/11 because the other two are safe), which actually means 4/33 (12%) chance of benching yourself because the other two are 100% safe. (1/3 chance of picking the risky one if you rng between the three, and then 4/11 of passing to maf.)
the ones that actually have one of these numbers (assuming that they are town), actually have a slightly higher chance of benching themselves, 1/2*4/11, so 2/11 (18%) when passing.

I can't do the math for the third player spiking odds as I don't believe we know how many spikers there are, but those don't really change based on safe numbers - they're still relevant to know the risk of a "safe number player" benching themselves because they've been passed to, though.

tl;dr: the chances of us benching one of our own by passing to them is actually lower when passing to these "safe numbers", so it's a good idea to pass to them to buy us time to weed out the maf with lynches. (however, the chance of being benched for hitting the net remains and technically puts safe/cleared players at risk.)

I'll give entelechy the benefit of doubt at this point for now, but they're definitely on my observing list for trying to have us believe the opposite, which would only benefit the maf.

edit - realised I derped out a little and fixed two of the odds that are actually like 1% higher. and fixed phrasing a tiny bit.

actually, coach-sama, do we know /can we be told how many spikers are there each night, provided the number is even constant?

ezzelin wrote:actually, coach-sama, do we know /can we be told how many spikers are there each night, provided the number is even constant?

There are two spikers at the moment. once the number of town players hits a threshhold I decided on pre-game, that will go down to one spiker until the end of the game.