Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

Ugg... if only we could get the mafia to eliminate ANYONE other than Lux or Kiyoko next turn. But the only way I can think to do that would be the previously mentioned everyone pass to themselves, except Kiyoko and lux, and hope whoever they pass too aren't Maf :P I will try to come up with a better plan.

Luxaria wrote:

Kiyoko wrote:I guess this lends credence to the Raie and Tet are maf together theory.

This has been a budding thought of mine for a while, or that at least Raie might be mafia. The NK selection just seemed odd with those two as mafia in mind. And the Tiki problem.

But, obviously it's just a possibly baseless suspicion, largely brought on by "Well if not you, then who?" sort of reads. We'll see, though.

I'm going to finally tryhard and exhaustively review this thread before the phase ends. I will give you some words, Kiyoko. I will drown this court in words.

Please. Don't. Small words. Use small words.

I really haven't been reading into who has been NK'd specifically because there is a semi-random element to it. Mafia can't directly target a player and expect them to reliably be killed. And we can't exactly easily track who they originally targeted as we just have to go on best guess instead of PMs.

It wouldn't be the biggest stretch in the world to draw the conclusion that either Raie / myself were maf based on who's left. But I also think the Lucas / Duck theory objectively holds more weight and that most anyone looking at the situation would agree. The remaining third person, I still have no idea where to begin with that yet.

I've put my defense out there already. (Lack of presence early game would have been really bad for maf. My spec, votes, and passing history being provided early would have also been bad for maf as concealing information is basically their only strength in this format.). Cure has been pretty on point in speculating hard from the instant the game started until now and I guess she's never been on my radar because of that.

It's possible, but I think unlikely, that she's one of the remaining maf. Unless she's the third member that's up in the air, and even then I think going for more sure things is smarter when the ratio is this close.



If there is something we're missing and Kiyo / Lux are somehow taking us on a ruse cruise I am seriously going to puke in frustration. Not even kidding. I can't see how that's possible but if it happens I will never, ever get over it.

Entelechy wrote:Ugg... if only we could get the mafia to eliminate ANYONE other than Lux or Kiyoko next turn. But the only way I can think to do that would be the previously mentioned everyone pass to themselves, except Kiyoko and lux, and hope whoever they pass too aren't Maf :P I will try to come up with a better plan.

Ok you're not explaining any of the things I asked you to touch on earlier even a little bit and now you're suggesting that everybody pass to themselves, which literally makes it so mafia could get a free kill if everyone actually did that. And a free kill basically means a loss at this point. Whether Kiyo or Lux live or not.

Can you see how that's a little bit very suspicious?

Literally any plan is better than that one.



Edit

Ninfia wrote:As is the rule in volleyball, you cannot pass to yourself. A spiker has to hit a toss from another player for it to count, but in general, a player can't touch the ball twice before someone else does. If you pass to yourself, you will fumble and be benched.

This was in response to a question you actually asked. You can't pass the ball to yourself.

Why are you suggesting we do it when you yourself asked a question about that before and were told we can't without being benched

Mostly because when everyone is this confused it means Raie or Tet is mafia

I'm actually pretty okay voting Tet for tomorrow

Kiyoko wrote:Mostly because when everyone is this confused it means Raie or Tet is mafia

I'm actually pretty okay voting Tet for tomorrow

I don't think anyone could direct the masterpiece Dran just put us through.

^ What Kiyo said.

I never said I have overwhelming evidence. I was just more-or-less commenting that it's a logical thought to entertain given the stage of the game.

My suspicion on Raie is mostly just due to the fact that--and I can't quite place it--something has seemed wrong to me for over two phases with regards to her posts. It's mostly a gut feeling, and I expect I'll get "yells words" at me for saying that at all. This is why I am going to exhaustively review and report back before phase end. For the record, I have only two assumptions I'm using going forward:

Duck and Raie are not mafia together.
Sammiya is town.

The second one is the one big assumption I try to allow for myself each game I play. This one is based largely on a lot of circumstantial evidence that may blow up in my face, but I feel most certain in calling her town of the remaining players that aren't myself and Kiyoko.

As for me, I guess it's these things.

• Raie and Tet getting more buddy-y as the game goes on, to the point where the pair of them both considered the possibility of me/Luxaria being maf over the possibility of each other being maf
  
• The way the pair of them have been ganging up on Duck has been rubbing me kind of really the wrong way like a lot
  
• The fact that Tet is willing to clear Raie "because helpful spec" when Raie has yet to actually directly contribute to a maf lynch (and thus her spec is not provably pro-town) rings some alarm bells
  
• With one mislynch to go until a maf win, Raie doubles down on the "lynch Lucas" thing rather than taking a step back to reassess thread's collective and clearly wrong interpretation of the situation now that drandahl has flipped town
  

But I'm not gonna be around to debate this because I'm going to go play GW2 with Luxaria-chan bye suckers

C☆r3 wrote:

Entelechy wrote:Ugg... if only we could get the mafia to eliminate ANYONE other than Lux or Kiyoko next turn. But the only way I can think to do that would be the previously mentioned everyone pass to themselves, except Kiyoko and lux, and hope whoever they pass too aren't Maf :P I will try to come up with a better plan.

Ok you're not explaining any of the things I asked you to touch on earlier even a little bit and now you're suggesting that everybody pass to themselves, which literally makes it so mafia could get a free kill if everyone actually did that. And a free kill basically means a loss at this point. Whether Kiyo or Lux live or not.

Can you see how that's a little bit very suspicious?

Literally any plan is better than that one.

This was in response to a question you actually asked. You can't pass the ball to yourself.

Why are you suggesting we do it when you yourself asked a question about that before and were told we can't without being benched

I will get around the speculation, and addressing your points, but I don't have time right now.

That post you quoted is not me suggesting that we do that. It is a bad plan. It is obviously a bad plan. How the could I possibly imagine that I could convince everyone to do that?

I was thinking it would be good if we could make it appealing to them to pass to someone other than Kiyoko/Lux, give them a guaranteed kill of exactly who they want (other than Kiyoko/Lux) with no chance of spiking, they might go for that and we could analyze the night kill while keeping a safe players. But I think the chance of spiking out weights that, and they likely wouldn't take the bait, anyway, so it is a Bad Plan, and I was bemoaning that the best I could come up with was that terrible.


Anyway. An actually good plan would require weighing the odds of spiking against the odds of Kiyoko/Lux passing randomly, how much control we can get over movement without breaching the no planning rule, with the ultimate qualifier of whether the Mafia can counter that plan by knowing we are doing it.

And I don't have a good plan for that.

Kiyoko wrote:As for me, I guess it's these things.

Raie and Tet getting more buddy-y as the game goes on, to the point where the pair of them both considered the possibility of me/Luxaria being maf over the possibility of each other being maf

...

The way the pair of them have been ganging up on Duck has been rubbing me kind of really the wrong way like a lot

...

The fact that Tet is willing to clear Raie "because helpful spec" when Raie has yet to actually directly contribute to a maf lynch (and thus her spec is not provably pro-town) rings some alarm bells

Just to clear it up immediately before opinions are formed and thread goes on to assume I meant things I don't.

Tet wrote:Cure has been pretty on point in speculating hard from the instant the game started until now and I guess she's never been on my radar because of that.

It's possible, but I think unlikely, that she's one of the remaining maf. Unless she's the third member that's up in the air, and even then I think going for more sure things is smarter when the ratio is this close.



If there is something we're missing and Kiyo / Lux are somehow taking us on a ruse cruise I am seriously going to puke in frustration. Not even kidding. I can't see how that's possible but if it happens I will never, ever get over it.

Cure has been pretty on top of speculating. As soon as the thread started Kiyo and Cure were out of the gate with hard numbers, theories, and crazy fast spec over who's what number. I feel like a maf member wouldn't be so eager to immediately do that.  I don't have her cleared in my mind. That's why I specifically said in my post that it was possible she was maf. Unlikely in the face of high seraph / duck. But possible. The not actively contributing to a maf lynch thing is one of the biggest reasons she's a maybe and not a no for me.

I don't think in any reality that Kiyo / Lux are maf over Cure. If someone threw that into the mix as viable spec and not just a joke over how frustrated I would get if Kiyo rused us again, I would throw the book at them. I'm sure as hell not suggesting people take the only two towns we have from the beginning of the thread and start looking at them over more obvious options. I can't really speak for Raie about her opinion there so that's something for her to clear up.

I am giving duck the 3rd degree because he literally just now suggested that we all pass to ourselves, opening us up for a free death, after he was specifically told earlier in the thread that won't work or you'd fumble the ball. And that's just for starters. I am really surprised more people haven't jumped on that immediately. It doesn't make sense.

Kiyoko wrote:With one mislynch to go until a maf win, Raie doubles down on the "lynch Lucas" thing rather than taking a step back to reassess thread's collective and clearly wrong interpretation of the situation now that drandahl has flipped town

Not sure about her doubling down on the Lucas thing.

I still feel like high seraph is our best option next to duck. High seraph's viability as a target does not change much after dran flipping town and duck is clearly contradicting himself in thread and not explaining it. And when we have one mislynch before a loss I think the guy who's suggesting we die is a safer bet.

We have an entire phase to speculate on this and talk about it either way. But from where I'm looking right now I have clear favorite choices and Kiyo, Lux, and Cure aren't among them.




Duck Ninja

It's not even a matter of odds and trying to plan without planning. If we gave mafia a guaranteed kill of whoever they want other than Kiyo / Lux we will likely lose. Full stop. I'm not really sure why Kiyo and Lux are this golden calf that every single member of town must band together to protect but even if we were completely for that idea, mafia is still in the thread reading and actually yes, also posting. It's not a question of whether they can counter that plan by knowing we are doing it, they will know we're doing it. They're right here.

And the fact that things like this were even put out there is what makes me extremely, extremely suspicious

C☆r3 wrote:
[...]I'm not really sure why Kiyo and Lux are this golden calf that every single member of town must band together to protect[...]

Kiyoko and Lux got cleared by the PMs in the first round. We objectively* know that they are not mafia. If someone other than them die, there is a lower chance of mislynching, and thus lynching.

If Kiyoko and Lux survive the next night (and someone else dies), then we will have 5 players to choose from for potential mafia. If one of them dies, then we have 6 potential people to chose from. And that might not sound like much, but imagine if I got benched in the night. Wouldn't that make finding the remaining mafia so much easier, as opposed to if Lux or Kiyoko did?

*Unless a player received a pass PM and didn't mention it, allowing for one of them to have claimed a pass without actually having received one. But that is very unlikely.

I'm not home. If you guys decide to lynch me of all people next day phase, you deserve to lose the game. I almost hope you try it

I'm not saying I dont think tet is maf. I think tet is maf. I just want to kill him last.

C☆☆☆ wrote:I'm not home. If you guys decide to lynch me of all people next day phase, you deserve to lose the game. I almost hope you try it

I'm not saying I dont think tet is maf. I think tet is maf. I just want to kill him last.

I am honestly not sure about Cure, but unless someone digs up a lot of dirt on them, I would not vote for them next say shift. I think we have better candidates.

I'm a girl.

cleared by mechanics

-kiyoko
-luxaria

obviously I don't think Kiyo/lux are more likely to be mafia than tet. I was just so baffled by the result of that lynch, that I really don't know how to figure out who the remaining mafia are. I've been saying this whole time that I think tet is mafia, but if we figure out who the collective mafia are and we lynch them all out, if I had to leave one for last it'd be tet because otherwise who will get to yell at everyone with me? No one, that's who. Also, it looks like I'll be doing lots of yelling in the next couple phases.

I don't care what you guys say, I know my own alignment. Also, Kiyo's whole "well raie hasn't been cleared by voting for mafia, yet". Fun fact, neither Kiyoko nor Luxaria have voted for a confirmed mafia member. Yet they are both cleared as town, so it doesn't automatically make me mafia.

Also I'm kind of irritated that people being confused implicates me and tet, I guess because we're sneaky when we're mafia? It's not like all the things that have been happening have been town acting as a collective. I'm not saying shit no one agrees with, everyone is coming to the same conclusions as me regarding suspicious/lynch targets, so I'm not sure why you're starting to turn on me when EVERYONE is turning out to be off with their speculation.

- duck
- lucas
- tet
- sammie
- blaire

Blaire isn't really devious enough to convincingly pretend she got Chinomi's numbers if Chinomi didn't actually get any, so i think Blairenomi is mafia.


sammie appears to be cleared by people passing to her frequently (unless she's actually maf and benching everyone because they're passing to her. Mafia could be choosing obscure targets they think will pass to 9). I'm actually kind of staring to think sammie is mafia. If everyone is openinly passing to sammie's number all the time, why would mafia even care about directly passing to Kiyo and Lux, when they could just pass it to ANYONE and they'd kill themselves on sammie.

But if we're still pretening Sammie is mafia, that leaves: duck, lucas, tet.

Duck broke the tie on Tiki, and I really don't think mafia would be okay with that happening so I'm really confused.

Lucas is Lucas

Tet is me.


I'm not sure why dylan flipping town suddenly makes Lucas not suspicious and me more suspicious when Kiyo was the co-conductor of the Drandahl lynch train.

C☆☆☆ wrote:
Tet is me.

I'm sorry, but just to double check, this is a joke right, and I'm not completely confused again?

Entelechy wrote:

C☆☆☆ wrote:
Tet is me.

I'm sorry, but just to double check, this is a joke right, and I'm not completely confused again?

No, this is not a joke, I am completely 100% serious. Tet and I are the same person. I am dualboxing the accounts Cure and Cur3. I just like yelling at people and agreeing with myself under the guise of someone even angrier than myself.

C☆☆☆ wrote:

Entelechy wrote:

C☆☆☆ wrote:
Tet is me.

I'm sorry, but just to double check, this is a joke right, and I'm not completely confused again?

No this is not a joke, I am completely, 100% serious. Tet and I are the same person. I am dualboxing the accounts Cure and Cur3. I just like yelling at people and agreeing with myself under the guise of someone even angrier than myself.

I am mafia on my C☆☆☆ account.




We're different people. We just played twins in the last game and are both just as angry with everyone at all times so it kind of didn't stop and now it's consuming my life.