Okay, some thoughts:
I'm willing to defer all discussion of what Blaire would do to Kiyoko/drandahl because I feel like they know Blaire better, but I kind of think that the flamethrower is strangely in-character for her. Not from the idea that she'll play the role hardcore, but I feel like Blaire would probably pick flamethrower just for shits and giggles.
I am pretty confident given that drandahl claimed (?) I know what room Lux presumably went into last night, because the Captain's Quarters was one of the two options I had thought of and she confirmed she was thinking of it so I'm probably on the same wavelength here.
I have no idea what to think of this last minute Blaire/drandahl thing at all, but I guess if I had to pick between who I'd prefer of the two lynched, I'd... actually pick Blaire, because if she flips town that means Kiyoko wasn't the N0 convert with some degree of certainty (though it doesn't speak to her alignment whatsoever) since Blaire did not contest her being in the room with her at all, and seemed to imply that she didn't get the flamethrower (indicating someone else was there).
Unless Kiyoko was lying about the room she was in for whatever reason and someone else who is perfectly content with not saying that they were in that room was in there, this holds.
With drandahl we don't gain any information about others' alignments outside of voting patterns and if he flips town and genuinely has the Captain's Masterkey it just goes to someone at random I guess.
So, um, here's what I think.
I don't think Ninfia and ezzelin are likely to have been in the Med Bay and be mafia, because there was strong talk about getting the ship task operational, and mafia moving to the med bay would help the town get that very anti-mafia ship task going.
Therefore, I think the pairings of Ninfia (mafia) and ezzelin (town) in the Med Bay, and vice versa are unlikely. I also don't think either of them are likely to be the convert, because multiple people expressed a potential want to enter the Med Bay and mafia would have to run the risk of having a shitload of people in there that could incinerate their potential convert. tl;dr I will not vote either of them at the moment.
I'm a bit :hm: at the cargo hold still but maybe I should drop it now, though I do think that alca and I opened ourselves up for a lot more scrutiny by saying we might go to the med bay vs Tiki and Rasei going #yolo RNG with their room movement, just saying. I do not think El Zorro will reply to my questioning of his ideas.
The interesting thing is that Kiyoko/Blaire/Lucas/Aeiou went for roles that are really ambiguous in their purpose to mafia and town; having a vig kill and a bomb (and the corresponding tiebreaker ship tasks/easy access to roles) can benefit both sides pretty equally v.s. something like the med bay's ship task and role, which is very town-sided. I'M SO SORRY NINFIA I LITERALLY GOT HOME AT 8 DON'T BLAME ME FOR NOT VOTING