Welcome to Katabasis Station, Work Shift 4

I see what you're getting at, but I'm very hesitant to do that for several reasons. I obviously have no way of knowing if all three of the people in the armory aren't actually infected (I do not think so, but...). I'm also hesitant to tell someone to try for the flamethrower and/or modify the plan this late, since I structured it early around the assumption that if anyone had any concerns right away, they'd mention it early in the phase.

This is a bit of a trust operation. So if I'm here, one of the people alone last night, that even has some suspicions via Rasei and maybe others, and then I go and tell someone in the Armory to try for the flamethrower... it looks suspicious, even if numerically it wouldn't make sense.

It would be a nice advantage in that we wouldn't have to body block the flamethrower each night, but... I'm really not sure. I might think on it and/or see if others like the idea, but I'm tentatively saying no to that idea to keep the plan set and consistent.

@drandahl
both me and ninfia said we sent in our med bay ship task right on this page.

edit: previous page, because this post got pushed to next - but on the same page as your tally with ticks.

Was going to do an edit, but:

Also, I decided my reasoning for some groups is built upon variables I do not want mafia privy to just yet. I want to see how they handle this phase. I will post a lengthy explanation right as the phase ends, as well as some suggestions on what to do going forward in the event that I die (I've been toying with an idea that guarantees mafia can't win the game under any circumstance due to mechanics, but it's harder since the Laboratory got removed. Might still be possible.). You have my word on this. I will also claim what room I visited N0 so that it doesn't confound Server Room ship task results if I'm not around to clarify.

I get where you're coming from.

Re: All armory maf
If this is the case, then deviating in any observable way from the plan will likely net town one maf.

If it's two maf and one town, deviation from the plan is still risky.

Re: Trust
I'd like to point out that I'm the one who's suggesting this, and I take ownership/responsibility here. True, we could both be mafia, but I feel like the plan is straightforward enough that I hope we can chat around "yes, this plan makes sense for town / no, this plan doesn't make sense for town" instead of "I think this was crafted in advance by mafia, and therefore am cautious."

Not to mention I'm putting myself in the spotlight here by suggesting this.

Re: blocking flamethrower
Eh, I don't expect to actually the explore to go through... that would require two mafia to be in the Armory, and for mafia to think it's worth it to let town get flamethrower (or infect the explorer, and reveal all three as mafia).

That said, this is just me engaging in discussion. The plan is still good either way.

Still waiting for clarification around how the Ship Task voting works, and around whether or not Ship Task success shows in rollover.

@ezz, @ninfia, sorry! How could I miss BOTH of you?

BATTLE PLAN wrote:Med Bay - Ship task
ezzelin ✓
Rasei ✓
Mitsu ✓
Ninfia ✓

Server Room - Ship task
Lucas ✓
Luxaria ✓
Tiki the Troll ✓
Aeiou ✓

Armory - Ship task
alcasync ✓
drandahl ✓
Kiyoko ✓

Return to this thread and post stating what room you will be visiting and what action you performed.

Lucas seems to have implied following it, but he never actually confirmed it. Could put a star next to his name. Tentatively, only alca might not have submitted.

omg yeah i said i was going to follow the plan i did the thing

i will be at the server room doing a ship task like a good little boy

Ahhh I almost forgot to send in my action! I usually send in right after rollover, but I was waiting for the plan and went to bed and then woke up and forgot until I checked the thread just now. Thank you for reminding me. ;v; I went to the armory to perform a ship task!

Umm, I have people I'm suspicious of but I'd rather wait until we see the results of tonight to make a post about it.

I do have suspicions too but they're really weak at the moment - would it be worth it for me to post them now, or just leave them be in the off chance that I'm not terribly incinerated or become mafia in the night?

This is a really empty post I'm sorry my ability to spec is kind of dead at the moment

Sure, go for it OwO I'm curious how they line up with my own.

@ Those of you waiting until next phase for spec

I hope you don't die.

Um, okay!

I'm of the opinion that the convert would claim to be in a room with other people because you then have the benefit of having other people vouch for you (e.g. you claim to be with your maf friend, maf friend goes "oh yeah they can't be convert" v.s. being alone, because of the intrinsic benefit of having a defense of some sort other than "uhhh I was alone and you have to believe me on this").

For reasons I posted earlier I don't believe mafia would attempt to convert in the med bay because like 4 people (Blaire counts because "it's a room that ends in y") floated possibly going there, and even if it was Ninfia (town)/ezz (mafia) or vice versa, the chance of someone else going there who was town would fuck up the conversion process and I'm unsure if mafia would take that risk. I mean. Going with the Med Bay possibilities:

Ninfia (town)/ezz (town) - mafia would likely not target this room because both Ninfia and ezz established they would go there with certainty
One of them is mafia - plausible, but mafia runs the risk of a third individual coming in and inadvertently mess things up
Both of them are mafia - mafia would more likely than not spread out, and I an unsure if they'd both camp in the med bay to ensure a gotcha moment for whoever enters

So, if I had to arrange people from least likely to be the convert to most likely, then:

Kiyoko/alcasync

Ninfia/ezz

Luxaria/drandahl

Rasei/Tiki/Aeiou/Lucas

The main issue of contention here is that I don't particularly view any player in the last tier to be a player that is likely to be NK'd in a regular game (if we were to work from that list, then of the four Lux is curiously the only player from my point of view without the benefit of someone vouching for them), though Ninfia brings up a good point that mafia may have deliberately chosen someone likely to be alone. I refuse to let the cargo hold thing go, I'm sorry.

Anyways, some thoughts on players. Not really comprehensive.

Spoiler:

Warning: Long. I am out of time to tl;dr and break it up into smaller segments.

I had some things come up, so this will be a bit shorter. I split the groups up into these specific setups for the following reasons:

In the Med Bay, we have ezzelin and Ninfia, who were in the Med Bay together last work shift. I believe that it is very likely at least one of them would be crew, if not both. I can't predict which one would be more likely to be infected, so I decided to keep them both together.

I then wished to pair them up with two people I viewed in a similar capacity. I believe Mitsu and Rasei are likely to have at least one town between them, if only due to their interactions last phase, but also a gut feeling (and full disclosure, there are some more gut feelings coming up). I also wanted to try to spread the people of the Cargo Hold up a bit, because I anticipate at least one of them being infected. If I consider that Mitsu and Rasei are likely to have at least one crew between them, that means I'm servicing the Med Bay with probably at least 2 crew, if not 3. This means the likelihood of the ship task function going off is fairly high. If there are two infected between them, the ship task failing is particularly damning as it can out 66% of existing infected.

I did not want to pair Mitsu with alcasync since I felt most strongly about the Mitsu/Rasei connection. But Tiki? I have a weird gut read, but Tiki feels crew to me. I could be wrong. I don't have any evidence. For what it's worth, I tend to fare... slightly better at reading him than most. Nothing precludes him from being infected, but for now my gut is saying a larger chance of crew.

I then put Lucas and Aeiou in the room with Tiki, and then threw in myself. Why? I believe there's a good chance one of Lucas and Aeiou are infected. I would not be surprised if Lucas was the convert, for that matter.  They could both be crew, or both be infected, or there's a split either which way. I can't be certain. But I do feel like the pair of them have a fairly high chance of having one infected. I will get back to this.

The Armory has alcasync, drandahl, and Kiyoko. These are three interesting targets, and also the room I was least confident in. I suggested it prior: I believe one of alcasync, Kiyoko, Mitsu, Rasei, and Lucas to be the most likely target of the convert. drandahl also claimed to being alone, which can place you in convert territory.

So the interesting thing here is that only one person can be the convert. If it's one of them, the other two cannot be it. This felt like the statistically safest way to place them all together, and also because if, for example, drandahl was a town and got converted and now they have a key, it's very obvious to tell if/when it's used if the infected doesn't die from EVA (Remember: MY SUGGESTION IS THAT NO CREW IS TO EVER VOLUNTEER TO GO EVA. MAFIA EITHER LOSES THE GAME, OR LOSES A MEMBER FROM DOING IT.)

I'm hoping that by placing those three together that I'm not putting two infected with one crew and letting a conversion happen easily. This was a risk no matter how the groups were arranged. I tried to design them such that if, for example, alca and Kiyo were infected and converted drandahl, it wouldn't be on a target I'd expect infected to prioritize given my previous speculation. Further, if alca or Kiyo were converted this night, then we kind of already expected the conversion to happen. The scary part is a conversion on targets we don't expect, making it harder to alignment check them.

So for this matter, I feel like the med bay is probably the most safe from conversions. As for the server room?

At potentially great risk to not getting a ship task off, I will not be in that room tonight. This is why I had to put myself not in the med bay (in addition to not wanting med bay to possibly fail if I did stay, when everyone wants to use it on me, since that just looks damning). I put myself in with the two people I'm kind of skeptical about, along with Tiki, who I have a gut read on town. I expect Tiki to punch in ship task. I also do not expect infected to try and NK/convert Tiki, in the event that they're alone in a room with him.

I'm leaving the room for several reasons that will be extremely obvious as the game goes on. You will know why if I die tonight. I will say that in doing so, we will know for certain if there's an infected between the three others in the server room. There may even be two of them--we won't know because I'm kind of skewing the results by leaving. But I'm providing us another result.

I will be performing a ship task in the Cargo Hold. If it does not go off, that means an infected was in there with me. Originally I was going to explore the engineering bay to block infected from fixing it, and, possibly, grab the radio to use in case I get cleared by the med bay, so I could communicate with another player for at least one phase while everyone is 100% sure that I am crew.

So since I deviated from this plan, be advised: Be very wary of anyone using the radio. I do not expect the infected to go for the radio or the role blocking roles tonight because they're not as beneficial as going for the Cargo Hold's possible roles. I debated sending in an explore for Cargo Hold to grab the gear for myself, but I think it works best if I do a ship task so you can see that I was 1) Genuine, and 2) If I die and there's no ship task, you know for a fact one other person was there.

This is the best I can come up with right now. I tried to split the groups as best I can.

My plan for the future would be to make sure an infected goes EVA. I would also try to 100% favor the med bay (splitting groups as safely as you can according to the ratio), and blocking the infected from getting kills and other loot. I cannot predict why the Galley and Laboratory were cut out. I am inclined to believe it was because the Laboratory / Med Bay ship task combo was too OP. Infected may have gotten the doctor role? But I would hazzard it was 100% Lab's ship task. Which means the Galley was probably taken out since there was no more protect in the game, which would suggest that infected did not get the food poisoning role last night. If this is the case, obviously Aeiou and Lucas cannot be infected together. Alternatively, Galley might have been removed because the ship task could lead to a snowballing situation by splitting up a lot more. I don't know. I don't know what design flaws Duck was targeting and how they were addressed.

When I saw infected has a low chance of winning, I am suggesting that you continue to split groups and use the med bay and lynch as strategically as you can to figure out which groups are acting outside the plan. For instance, if certain rooms do not perform ship tasks, you have something to work with. If there's no kill and there's a convert instead, you have something to work with. It's a little risky because you can't lose too many people while testing alignments between the groups, but I think if you stay together to prevent conversions... it's doable. Completely doable.

Lastly.

I was in the Brig on the first work shift. I got the prisoner biomonitor. I used it on a target. That target was not the convert.

If I'm alive in a few minutes, excellent. I will do what I can to help and continue to prove my alignment--if I'm not the med bay target, which makes sense to do. If not? Good luck. I have no idea who the infected will target, but I really, really, really hope my plan was and is sound.

Last minute PMs require me to re-write rollover.