Cardcaptor Sakura Mafia [Day Four]

I'm a little worried that Cure was killed right now. We probably would have had a dedicated lynch on Lulu, so I'm trying to figure out whether Mafia is trying to save Lulu or frame Lulu. Channeling the deceased, out of respect:

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON WHETHER THAT WOULD BE A FRAME OR A SAVE?

I am still collecting context here. Was paged for work at 4am this morning, so slept in a bit and rushed straight to the office.

EDIT: Snaked by Nautilus. Thanks, reading that now.

man, what a ride

Yooo lmao so I went to work and didn't realize my phone wasn't working until I locked myself outside and was trying to call people to save me

I sent question to host but I'm guessing no
Also I wouldn't have even posted the list but host didn't tell me she forgot about lulu so originally I was thinking lulu was the obscured person which would actually help us because then we'd have a small pool of who the NK sender was but now it could be literally anyone and it's useless now I'm sorry ;w;

i.... feel terrible because i tried so hard to be active, and all that got me was suspicion and now i'm too busy to keep up with the thread properly so i don't really have much to contribute :(

i'm not sure how i feel about blaire/lulu.... raie said that one of them has to be mafia and then she died.... i'm wondering if the kill on her was supposed to take away the pressure on them??? are both of them mafia??? i doubt it but idk. i think currently i'm more suspicious of blaire than i am lulu, but this is pretty gut feelings-y and may have been emotionally swayed by lulu's quote:

lulu wrote:i specifically claimed to stop town from making misinformed lynches so i'm going to be a little annoyed if i get lynched for providing information.

also i have asked the host about what happens if i ask about alignment, and apparently i get "I cannot discern what you're asking" so...! maybe that would help with creating a compound question i could ask and you all would be able to gain more information from?? idk i thought about possibilities briefly but i really need to go now, maybe will think about it more later.

Hey, I'm here! I know people... well, at least Nautilus was asking after me? Umm... Let me get this all together here. Lulu claimed the jails on me and Mr. Alice, right? And... Cure has already flipped town? Let me ask one thing before I vote Lulu and start pushing a lynch on her (and, y'know, lemme get a sense of where the votes are, too, before I do that). At what point did Lulu replace Bromigo? It's pretty curious to me that my action didn't go through, so I'd guess whoever actually did jail me would have had to do it before I sent my stun, unless jails have a higher priority than stuns? Is that a normal thing? Because I know multiple stuns in this game would be resolved in inbox order.

Lemme read in more detail.

Five wrote:Hey, I'm here! I know people... well, at least Nautilus was asking after me? Umm... Let me get this all together here. Lulu claimed the jails on me and Mr. Alice, right? And... Cure has already flipped town? Let me ask one thing before I vote Lulu and start pushing a lynch on her (and, y'know, lemme get a sense of where the votes are, too, before I do that). At what point did Lulu replace Bromigo? It's pretty curious to me that my action didn't go through, so I'd guess whoever actually did jail me would have had to do it before I sent my stun, unless jails have a higher priority than stuns? Is that a normal thing? Because I know multiple stuns in this game would be resolved in inbox order.

Lemme read in more detail.

Yes! But I feel like in most games jails and stuns are of identical priorities, actually, so it might have just been resolved by inbox ... Lulu claimed to have replaced Bromigo two hours before the night phase's end and sent in the action, iirc?

I can't ask this though, probably, because I'm not a stunner nor do I have jailing capacity, so. I've asked about general action priority before and I've just gotten vague answers so

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON WHETHER THAT WOULD BE A FRAME OR A SAVE?

I was going to do a Kiyoko impression here but how would that even work, so.

I'm not actually sure how to take it - as being either a frame or a save.

Raie had already started pressing lulu pretty hard at the beginning of the phase and I find the fact that it took about twelve hours from when the stepping started for Raie to finally die a little curious; when I killed Lucas it was pretty immediate and I'm fairly certain the host would've been around had the action been submitted earlier in the phase BUT this is getting really meta I'm just wondering if this can lead us to the identity of The Through.

I feel like it was more a save than a frame though if we get down to the nitty-gritty of it, because given how quiet this thread was for most of the day had Raie been around I feel like there would've been more of an aggressive, set lynch: see her posts leading up to Tiki lynchproof, Mk. I. If it was supposed to be a frame, it's definitely not working right now: with the exception of Five it seems like people are just very confused about lulu's claims in general.

For what it's worth I feel like Raie not necessarily part of a plan, but because her role was dangerous to the mafia; it's also possible that mafia could have missed entirely that she was the jailer (despite all the hints), especially given how... a lot of people missed that I had killed Lucas, and opted to kill her then and there once she hardclaimed her role.

I'm curious about lulu's thoughts, though!

@angel - Question! If you had to vote anyone other than lulu or Blaire, who would you vote for?

PRE-POST EDIT: GOMEN I JUST GOT NINJA'D BY NAUT-SENPAI I WILL READ & RESPOND IN A BIT

OK MY THOUGHTS though i've been ninja'd a million times while i slowly typed this while getting ready for the day THANK YOU FOR THE SUMMARY ALSO NAUTILUS-SENPAI

regarding the dayvig
i think i saw it mentioned and wasn't sure if it was a joke but i didn't do the shooting thing I WAS ASLEEP AT THE TIME

i'm trying to evaluate what i think about the dayvig shooting cure so late in the phase b/c in my experience maf teams try to use dayvigs asap? in gakuen 2 we shot kiyoko half-way through the phase because she was leading a massive train directly towards the entire maf team but today's dayvig didn't even shoot during any spec.

@drandahl
even if you think it's related to cure's spec today, it happened like... 10 hours after her last post. the timing is incredibly odd.

regarding aeiou's results
for what it's worth regarding aeiou i personally feel like watcher results are difficult to fake for maf b/c it's entirely possible for town to lie about acting / not acting. i don't think she's lying about being a watcher, but she could also be a maf watcher who's deliberately omitting results.

nautilus wrote:My question was basically: Aeiou, are you capable of seeing actions that were attempted but did not go through? I find it curious that Five doesn't appear on your list at all, since I think ezz's version of your role in Lit Maf 2 allowed us to see people who had been stunned/blocked out of acting, and Raie shows up despite having jailed herself (though that may have been an exceptional case).

i think aeiou said that even if someone's action failed it'll show up, but that was specifically in regards to someone getting protected from the NK so um... yeah i'd like clarification as well b/c i noticed five wasn't on her list yesterday but i forgot to bring it up......

if aeiou is being completely truthful regarding her results - can anyone think of any scenario in which an obscured action wouldn't be the NK? i've been trying to think of town roles that might be able to self-obscure while acting but i can't - i can see a passive hide being either town or mafia aligned but imo being able to obscure actions is maf-aligned and a mafia team would always use it on the NK sender.

regarding my thoughts
i still haven't finished backreading and there is a lot of information to take in and i'm crying - most of my notes are based directly off nautilus's list so yes thank you nautilus-senpai i hope you are not mafia.

not scum --  
- nautilus: inclined to believe is town based off what i've seen - that is, the n0 kill attempt & a vig who's killed a mafia...
- rasei: neutral?

other --
- five: i think her claim is suspicious based off the information i have (that is, that cure & myself were both town disablers) but if, as cure said, the entire thread has scrutinised her claim and found her clear then i'm not going to argue strongly against until i've finished backreading
- aeiou: watcher, in general i tend to believe watcher claims because they're difficult to forge, especially when we have... five? people who haven't yet claimed? it's possible she's maf watcher but i don't really see any reason for her to out her information in the circumstances she did if she was maf.
- katagi: item copier who gunned nautilus? i'm mildly skeptical that they only have a single charge ability but i won't ask for details. is acting pro-town but it could also be a gambit.
- ezzelin: OK ARE THERE REALLY SO MANY ITEMS IN THE GAME THAT WE NEED A THIEF AND A COPIER... THERES ONLY BEEN ONE ITEM SPAWNED SO FAR RIGHT...... i dont think that's incriminating against ezzelin i'm just confused by the item roles
- angelstar: is lie detector literally ever maf? in any case imo it's an easy role to fake.
- mr alice - was jailed n0 when the NK failed
- she-ra - claimed to be similar to tiki which would make them bulletproof...? i don't see how that's scummy though am i missing something
- gerbear - idk
- jeanne/drandahl - idk
- luxaria - idk

regarding mr alice
i've been staring at n0 and aeiou's list for awhile. if we trust aeiou's list, the following people acted or were blocked last night: cure, rasei, angelstar, katagi, lulu, five, obscured person.

all of these people have claimed to some extent. if we have a dedicated doctor, or protective role aside from the jailer at all, wouldn't they have acted last night? none of the dead players so far seem to fit the role of doctor so i believe if there was a doctor who acted n0 they would have acted last night also.

the alternative is that the one obscured person is the doctor but i can't think of the use of a doctor with a passive obscure, and imo an active obscure would almost certainly be a maf role and would never be used on a townsperson.

given this logic: at this stage i'm leaning towards thinking there is no doctor and mr alice is the one who sent in the NK. i'm comfortable with where my vote is.

regarding today's vote
a good place to start with placing votes is that we know the existence of two out of three maf roles - the dayvig and the wounder. while it's possible that the wounder is tiki and is dead, this seems unlikely given flavour (the dash?). the last maf role is most likely... the obscurer who's responsible for hiding aeiou's one result?

in any case there must be 2-3 mafia in this list of people who have not solidly demonstrated their role:
- luxaria
- jeanne/drandahl
- gerbear
- she-ra
- mr alice
- angelstar claimed, but her results can be faked - i would have to backread to see when she claimed...
- aeiou claimed, imo she's not faking but for completeness i'll include her b/c the results are possible to fake

the wounder cannot be jeanne or mr alice - jeanne was redirected onto herself n0 and mr alice was jailed. that means one of the following players must be the wounder:
- luxaria
- gerbear
- she-ra
- angelstar or aeiou if you don't believe their claims

i'm personally inclined towards a mr alice lynch due to my reasoning above, but there's another list of lynch candidates for anyone who believes that for some reason a doctor protected nautilus n0 and yet did not act last night. or if people don't want to follow my vote because they don't trust me, w/e.

lastly: if five is actually town it's very likely the mafia dayvig has multiple shots. it'd be nice to find & kill them ASAP.

@five:
usually the way stuff like this works is:
1. if Stunner A stuns Stunner B who is stunning someone else, B will be stunned and B's stun will disappear
2. if Stunner A stuns B who stuns A, both of their stuns disappear.

i was subbed in for bromigo very close to rollover and i asked if i could put an action in for the night which was allowed! i just assumed that i wasn't allowed to talk in thread until the announcement was made

also as a side note i would prefer not to claim until more votes come out (WHERE IS EVERYONE) but i would like to specifically ask nautilus not to shoot me until after i've claimed

Okay this is me basically catching up and highlighting all the things from the last few pages that stood out to me so bear with me I guess? Also role claim'd for ya folks b/c I'm not using it *shrug*

Mr. Gerbear wrote:WELL considering I'M NOT MAFIA and I don't think Angel is either, this leaves She-Ra, Aeiou and Ezzelin :V Ezzelin, we know steals borrows items and idk if this can even be in addition to the jail. She-Ra herself said she has a role that sounds scummy... hm. Aeiou.... ??? IDK

My role is a silencer. I haven't used it and I'm not gonna because I can think of literally no reasons why I would want to do that, so I guess you guys can just... know.

And no I didn't silence Tiki. Which means either the town has a second silencer or maf silenced him to... bus him? Or to prevent him from digging his own hole. Or I guess even to frame him.

lulu wrote:
i don't have time to put together a comprehensive post of my thoughts but before the thread derails completely i want to clarify that adios sent in the n0 jail on mr alice, and i was allowed to send in an action last night and i used a jail on five. i am definitely town and i am not claiming dedicated jailer but would strongly prefer not to clarify on the details of my role unless people think i'm the best lynch target.

Leaning that way... why would you jail five??

lulu wrote:
regarding other thoughts: if cure is being truthful about the role that acted on her n0 being town, this means mafia does not have a jailer. if this is the case i'm inclined to very strongly believe the stunner is maf which also makes five incredibly suspect in my eyes. like, it's possible town has a jail + stun + part-time jailer? but i find it unlikely for mafia to not have any disables?

My guess is maf has the other silencer, plus an item generator, plus a jailer/joat (you??) plus they had a stunner provided Tiki wasn't framed, which yeah he was almost definitely maf.

Cure wrote:wtf at lulu's claim. I am the dedicated town jailer. if lulu is claiming JOAT???

i... i don't believe this claim at all wtf lulu are you mafia.

Cure wrote:... STEPS VERY GENTLY ON LULU THE PINK SNAKE CHAN.

okay so like... adibros didn't seem to give any indication that the other jailer was town at all, or... really comment at all on how both jails might be town/the one on me being mafia. AS FAR AS I CAN RECALL. umm.... this is incredibly strange to me.

Like... is lulu so far back that she didn't see my claim? did mafia not update her about my claim???

Maybe more than one of the maf people are the people who just came in as replacers so none of them were caught up enough?

lulu wrote:@cure
I SAID IN MY OWN POST IM NOT CLAIMING DEDICATED JAILER

i also explained why i'm suspicious of five in my post: because i find it doubtful all the n0 disables were town-aligned, but pls take it with a massive pinch of salt. i was given the heads up that i was being subbed in about two hours before rollover and i acted based on what i had read up until page 10 in conjunction with reference to nautilus's post of claims.

tbh i don't really care if you find me suspicious at this point b/c there're better targets for lynch - mr alice is the most obviously suspect for being stunned on a night with a missing NK

... point.

Luxaria wrote:The one thing throwing me off about lulu, to a pretty large degree, is if lulu is mafia and apparently knew early enough yesterday to have sent in a role action (unless it was like Mitsu + me with pan in TvTropes where Mitsu got to control Pan's actions, and mafia just said, "yo we used your jail last night on Five" and that's all she knew...)... even if she hasn't read the whole thread, w-wouldn't the mafia have team brought her up to speed on claims and roles and whatnot? Because her entire post just... makes no sense. It reads like a town just coming in, which is fair, but with what we know of the distribution of role powers and actions, this does not make sense if lulu is claiming some form of a town jail on top of the two known control claims that feel town (Five stun, Cure jail--especially so for the latter).

So...

??

?? indeed. I'm leaning toward the theory that many of the maf were AFK players though.

nautilus wrote:@lulu - there are other reasons that the NK could have failed, though, so it feels a bit weird that you're zeroing in on Mr. Alice? like, the NK was never missing; it showed, which meant I could either be protected by ~Things~* or Blaire was stunned out of the NK.

given the plot debacle i'm not willing to assume 100% that blaire was mafia stunned out of the NK, fwiw, since there's other possibilities out there? it'd be way more damning if the kill never showed up in rollover

Counterpoint.

Cure wrote:also adibros spent all of their posts on d1 defending lucas against chinomi. we know now that mafia includes lucas and tiki. so far this team is not really shaping up to be one that would quickly jump on adibros and tell them to shhhhh.

tbh if mafia was tiki, adibros, lucas, and blaire....

More counterpoint and I'm inclined to go along with Cure's theory...

Luxaria wrote:also, if that hypothetical squadron is correct, that might also answer why Tiki was kind of just thrown to the wolves if there were literally no other mafia hanging out.

It really does seem like.

nautilus wrote:I guess the Angel thing isn't 100% foolproof because Angel could straight up have a 50% - 50% chance of getting the answer correct through just guessing, so.

(╯•﹏•╰)

nautilus wrote:1) angel is correct.

I'm going to give angel the benefit of the doubt for now but I still feel very (╯•﹏•╰) y'know?

Cure wrote:MITSU I THINK YOU SHOULD KILL BLAIRE/LULU AND WE SHOYLD LYNCH BLAIRE/LULU OENE OF THEM IS MAFIA WE HAVE TO KILL THEM BOTH W E H A
VE

TO

KILL

THEM
B O TH

Luxaria wrote:It makes absolutely no sense for all of these effects to be on town. The only goddamn explanation I could think of that might feasibly explain any of this shit, and it is a really scary goddamn theory that no one is going to want to hear, is if Tiki actually was framed and silenced, like if it was hidden or if the "wounded" was a frame, but that defeats the purpose since it broadcasts a framing which seems counter-productive (even if no one would know it's a framing). But that said, he acted way too scummy and did all the things a town would not do, so there's actually no way this is the case. It's the only way Five being mafia might make sense. Even still, though, that is an every night stun vs. every other night stun, town jail, and whatever the hell lulu has hidden in her little snek arms.

Alternative explanation:

Our host is cruel and mean and staged the game such that the role distribution is impossible to pick apart, and if so, bravo that's actually pretty well-done. That said, if this is the case, what the fuck does mafia have if they have no jails or stuns (if lulu is actually town, as well as Five). Silence, item of death, and whatever role detection (copy??) that Lucas has? And two blank things? ehhh?

Cardcaptor Ninfia*:･ﾟ✧★ wrote:
Cure has been passed through. She was The Firey. She was Town.

Shit.

"Passed through" firey should AT LEAST wound the maf who did it, I mean she's made of fire :(

drandahl wrote:I'm a little worried that Cure was killed right now. We probably would have had a dedicated lynch on Lulu, so I'm trying to figure out whether Mafia is trying to save Lulu or frame Lulu. Channeling the deceased, out of respect:

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON WHETHER THAT WOULD BE A FRAME OR A SAVE?

I AM HAVING THE SAME DILEMMA.

Just from all of this it seems like Cure was getting pretty close and really convincing on the anti Lulu (and Blaire) train, which makes me inclined to think that one of them got rid of them - but that could also so easily be the mafia messing with our heads to FURTHER pin things on Lulu/Blaire and I am so confuseddd.

I think I'm goint to tentatively vote: lulu if only to try to fulfill Cure's dying wishes. And also because Lulu seems like the shadiest of all the suspects atm. WHY JAIL FIVE?


EDIT: Ninja'd by Lulu's post which is almost as long as mine so I didn't read all of it but I'm gonna reiterate that I HAVEN'T USED MY ROLE POWER.

oh my god i just got called in for work early and i know this forum doesnt work on mobile GOMEN ILL TRY MY BEST TO GET IN BEFORE ROLLOVER RUNS OUT W TOAST IN MY MOUTH

Some additional thoughts:

I would be careful with the item. If katagi copied the mafia's not-gun and gave it to town, it's possible ezzelin may have tampered with it somehow. I don't think it's very likely, given ezzelin is claiming and taking credit for the item's brief disappearance, but it's... possible?

There is no way mafia had an every other night stunner and town had two jails and a stun. Cure has flipped town. In other words:

Cure wrote:LULU CLAIMED THE JAIL ON FIVE??? THERE'S NO WAY BOTH JAILS ARE TOWN THERE'S NO WAY GUYS THERE'S NO WAY

Yeah. Vote: Lulu come on now. If somehow Lulu actually flips town, I'm looking at Blaire because she was apparently a town jail target on a night where the kill failed.

nautilus wrote:Lulu claimed to have replaced Bromigo two hours before the night phase's end and sent in the action, iirc?

Nope. Nope, nope, nope. Either that didn't happen, or jails and stuns don't have the same priority (which would be pretty odd).

I got ninja'd by Lulu cosplaying Luxxxiepop. Get outta here with all these words. I guess that the stun going through on me because I stunned some not-Lulu person (which is true, why would I stun someone who couldn't act OR SO I THOUGHT) is a third possibility, but still there is just no way there is this much disabling power on the town side.

Either lynch Lulu or just shoot her. The idea that mafia don't have a jailer is pretty unrealistic to me.

I... THOUGHT SHE-RA WAS A LYNCHSAVE (WHICH, AS GERRY CAN ATTEST, CAN BE PRETTY SCUMMY AND ALSO INVOLVES SAVING PEOPLE FROM LYNCHES).

..................... ?????????? What is the actual purpose of a town silencer?
..................... ?????????? Why do we have two players who purportedly were town fuck-up-with-people's-posting-abilities in the original draft of the game?
..................... ??????????

????????????? Are mafia just getting all their claims out of their system since this thread has turned into a massclaim over the last couple days? Why would there have been two town sorta-silencers? I've been pretty much sure the silencer was mafia since they showed up because of my first role.

What the hell?

If Shira is the silencer but didn't silence tiki... then who was phone. Is this part of the joat role idek

I just got home from school omfg I'm so... confused.

I'm not the wounder. I wasn't even properly available when tiki was silenced (was on an island). :v

k I had a psuedo-reply to lulu so I'll post what I have, but Gentle Reminder It's Less Than An Hour To Phase End

if aeiou is being completely truthful regarding her results - can anyone think of any scenario in which an obscured action wouldn't be the NK? i've been trying to think of town roles that might be able to self-obscure while acting but i can't - i can see a passive hide being either town or mafia aligned but imo being able to obscure actions is maf-aligned and a mafia team would always use it on the NK sender.

imo it only really makes sense as mafia: see ardonye's ability to completely disguise me on n1 of lit maf 2. as town it just seems anti-town to have a role that can't be deduced by investigation and it introduces too many variables.

all of these people have claimed to some extent. if we have a dedicated doctor, or protective role aside from the jailer at all, wouldn't they have acted last night? none of the dead players so far seem to fit the role of doctor so i believe if there was a doctor who acted n0 they would have acted last night also.

i was hesitant to bring this up but i noticed this also: my Worst Timeline Story was that Sammiya was actually doctor and claimed a weird role to avoid being killed by mafia, especially with the role cop purportedly out of the way. however, worst timeline implies that mafia knew sammiya was bluffing, which implies mafia has multiple forms of investigation.

for what it's worth given the number of apparent killing roles concentrated on the mafia side (whatever killed sammiya/kiyoko, the item vig, the through) i strongly believe at some point we had to have had a doctor because it doesn't make sense to have a jailer (and maybe lulu) be our only dedicated protection role outside of presumable bulletproofs in the town when mafia has such a high concentration of roles that can kill people.

i should also remind everyone that the phase ender and the item generator also exist and are likely mafia.

★ The Lulu vs Mr Alice
★ The Rasei vs No Lynch
★ The Cure vs Lulu
★ The Mr Alice vs Lulu
★ The Five vs Lulu

★ Lulu ll
★ Mr Alice l
★ No Lynch l

Luxaria wrote:

nautilus wrote:@Raie - WHY ARE ALL MY FRIENDS DEAD IN THIS GAME