A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

Super duper rookie thoughts but if there was a town vigilante would they attempt to kill someone straight out with so little information? Or was the N0 rollover a whole lot of information for a mafia game.
Also I said I'd be more active this phase but I'm still just reading other people's posts and marveling at the expansive amount of meta. You guys are cool.

Edit: why this for page top omg

okay so I'm alive let's do this

First, regarding the missing stun. I've already before suspected the double stun was either JOAT, roulette, or a blind copy, so I'm not at all surprised that there aren't two stuns again.
In all three cases, there are five notable possibilities:
a. JOAT/roulette/blind copy rolled/copied protect, and with the protect that saved vowels the previous night, saved both kill targets last night. Unlikely, but not impossible.
b. JOAT/roulette/blind copy rolled vig /copied the NK, and shot one of the kill targets last night. In the case of blind copy, I would encourage the person to claim their target for obvious reasons (though blind copy is admittedly far less likely than the other two possibilities).
c. JOAT/roulette/blind copy was stunned or jailed.
c. JOAT/roulette/blind copy rolled stun or jail and actual stunner or jailer was stunned or jailed, or
d. JOAT/roulette/blind copy rolled something that doesn't appear in rollover.

Listed in ascending likelihood, more or less. I... don't think there's actually much more to say about this that isn't pure speculation or even wishful thinking, though.

Regarding the two kill attempts, I'm inclined to think one of them was a townvig. Firstly, because I'm not sure how likely it is in this game size for maf to have a vig - and if they did, it would probably be VERY limited, in which case I honestly doubt they'd shoot it off so early. I'd expect a single shot or a conditional two shot at most, so even with the first NK failing, I don't think they'd use it so early in the game. Secondly, while it is also fairly early for a townvig, I can see it being someone who was worried of being killed or lynched early, and saw enough behaviour that they thought suspicious to attempt a kill. Thirdly, I think it's likelier that maf would have an intermission kill rather than a traditional nightvig, which rings more town to me.

The only thing that makes me doubt a little bit is that barring the first scenario for explaining the missing stun, one of the failed kills had to be due to a bulletproof, which is traditionally more of a town role versus lynchproof being more often granted to maf. However, there's still the possibility of just a full killproof (by which I mean survives n attempts on own life, where n is at least 1 but not larger than, say, 3), which would make sense for mafia especially assuming town vig.

In light of this, I think Lux is definitely far more likelier to have been the NK, and katagi a possible townvig target. I can see her mildly cryptic D1 posts pinging a potential townvig, and they might have thought it wouldn't be a big loss or an issue even if she ended up flipping town, since she admitted she will have difficulties following the thread. For lack of better target atm, I'd be down for a katagi lynch since even in the worst case scenario, it should shed some light on last night's rollover.

Also pinged by Rasei since she posted twice and did not respond to Lucas' question at all. I feel like a potential mafia team behind her would have notified her and prodded her to answer though, so I'm not gonna jump vote on her. Sending out signal in search of answer--

ezzelin wrote:

high seraph wrote:@Rasei

what did you mean with "please don't vote Tiki yet"? You... were supposed to be stunned, so you shouldn't have learned any kind of information about Tiki and?? This just makes me really curious...??

I mostly assumed it was for meta reasons, but if it wasn't, I'm curious about this too.

My gut feeling also says Sammie's posting style sounds very much like how she sounds when she's mafia, but willing to give her the benefit of doubt for now since she hasn't played in a while.

Wow so that's... good? Maybe? No one died and I can't tell if that's a good thing. If one of the shots was town vig and the target was really maf and didn't go through that sucks but at least we know all the town are still alive. So...yay?

Luxaria wrote:

1. Game of Thrones was great.

[...]

5. Ninfia is really above average in terms of cuteness.

6. The double negated kill is especially interesting to me, not in the least of which because I was one of the targets. Which amuses me for reasons unrelated to this game, actually. But, between that and the previous one... I can easily see Aeiou being predicted to be hit the previous night and have received the doctor protect (if she wasn't bulletproof), but I'm not sure how to process tonight's since unless there's two protective effects in play, one had to be a bulletproof (?). I can see both targets being logical for a NK, though I'm not sure how vigilante would factor into this. I suppose I can see a town vigilante shooting katagi given some of her cryptic vigilante comments the previous phase, though I feel it might have been a bit weak so I'm not sure--though why would mafia do that, either, unless they knew something about her role I guess.

The kill attempt on me could be the NK, if it wasn't on katagi, or the vigilante shot, though seeing as I am a bit biased here, I don't know how likely others--chiefly town--are to shoot me. I suppose there are other complicated ways to process the double kill attempt, such as retribution roles or something else, but I'd... imagine it's more likely to be vigilante and NK. If not on me, the NK on katagi might be following the trend of the attempt on Aeiou. I'll think more on the breakdown of this after more people weigh in.

7. Seeing what mafia does now will be interesting. Either two or three of their attempted kills all failed. I don't know if they'd pull out a vigilante after one night of a failed kill, suggesting two kills originating from mafia last night, or if they'd bide their time and wait--meaning I kind of expect two attempts tomorrow and/or an intermission kill in the near future, if they have one.

Re: points 1& 5: yes.

Re: the rest - I love long lux posts. Your thoughts on this are better and more comprehensive than mine. Even though last game I got kinda screwed by believing in Nautilus because of her long comprehensive posts that made sense, inclined to trust this is good analysis.

Tinylightsflash wrote:Super duper rookie thoughts but if there was a town vigilante would they attempt to kill someone straight out with so little information? Or was the N0 rollover a whole lot of information for a mafia game.
Also I said I'd be more active this phase but I'm still just reading other people's posts and marveling at the expansive amount of meta. You guys are cool.

I KNOW RIGHT?? Like how do people come up with so much from so little why is everyone so GOOD at this game.

That said, I feel like by the second night and no deaths so far if a town vig had some suspicions it might feel safe enough to go for it. I've only played a couple games but it does seem to me that most of the time people tend to like to act unless it's a super dicey situation for town.

ezzelin wrote:
Regarding the two kill attempts, I'm inclined to think one of them was a townvig. Firstly, because I'm not sure how likely it is in this game size for maf to have a vig - and if they did, it would probably be VERY limited, in which case I honestly doubt they'd shoot it off so early. I'd expect a single shot or a conditional two shot at most, so even with the first NK failing, I don't think they'd use it so early in the game. Secondly, while it is also fairly early for a townvig, I can see it being someone who was worried of being killed or lynched early, and saw enough behaviour that they thought suspicious to attempt a kill. Thirdly, I think it's likelier that maf would have an intermission kill rather than a traditional nightvig, which rings more town to me.

The only thing that makes me doubt a little bit is that barring the first scenario for explaining the missing stun, one of the failed kills had to be due to a bulletproof, which is traditionally more of a town role versus lynchproof being more often granted to maf. However, there's still the possibility of just a full killproof (by which I mean survives n attempts on own life, where n is at least 1 but not larger than, say, 3), which would make sense for mafia especially assuming town vig.

In light of this, I think Lux is definitely far more likelier to have been the NK, and katagi a possible townvig target. I can see her mildly cryptic D1 posts pinging a potential townvig, and they might have thought it wouldn't be a big loss or an issue even if she ended up flipping town, since she admitted she will have difficulties following the thread. For lack of better target atm, I'd be down for a katagi lynch since even in the worst case scenario, it should shed some light on last night's rollover.

okay these are interesting points to me. I don't know a lot about how common which roles are for which side, etc. but the bit about game size makes sense I think? also this game is increasingly becoming Not Average =/

also also

Ninfia wrote:“I think it better that you start doing something productive, PAT.”

I think that hayley is telling us to step up our game...

She-Ra wrote:

Ninfia wrote:“I think it better that you start doing something productive, PAT.”

I think that hayley is telling us to step up our game...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah tbh I don't have any fucking clue how last rollover can be explained ok, despite the possibilities that ezz has proposed on her last post and I still feel like we're being fOOLED ヽ(｀⌒´メ)ノ

ok I'm not gonna go dive into rollover analysis because I think you guys have pretty much got it covered by now. I'd just like to add this to the discussion: Five is likely town, the jailer is likely mafia. Given her previous remarks during the night phase about claiming actions, I can totally see how mafia would feel intimidated and want to prevent her from acting during the phase. I had an idea on why Fivey would think that claiming targets should be useful, but her posts after rollover had made me rly confused again, so idk what to really think. But yeah, I'm gonna be treating Five as cleared and the jailer as mafia for the rest of the game, and u can't stop me.

I know someone is gonna push forward the theory that this might be a mafia ruise cruise and Five just said some suspicious shit so the mafia would have a reason to jail her and clear her, but I'm not interested in buying it thank u!

I've been getting some pretty intense mafia signals coming from ezz, but I'm not going to act upon this for now because I might be getting ahead of myself. Also, ezz was targeted by the mafia jailer on N0, and I want to believe mafia wouldn't immediately jail their teammate, although it's an entirely plausible thing for mafia to do. Instead, I'm more insterested in knowing what Tiki thinks of the current events, because I'm getting mafia vibes from u too Tiki. Like I said before in a response to Five, it's really easy for mafia to just claim whatever targets they'd like, and claiming failed actions two nights in a row is one way you can try to be "transparent" without compromising any of the information we already have. In order words, it's a safe lie mafia could resort to hmmmmm.

So yeah, I'd like to see Tiki's comments on the game and what players he's most suspicious of etc.

On the other hand, I'll be very reluctant to vote either Luxaria, Rasei or Five. Lux has been pretty helpful during the last few phases, and I'd rather lynch some less active player than her atm. As for Rasei, I'm not particularly suspicious of her because, like I've said before, her behavior checks out with her common town playstyle, and I kind of agree with ezz that some of her mafia buddies would have pinged her about my question by now, if she had any (unless the entire mafia is kinda afk?? which is possible?). I'm also not particularly inclined to vote Tiny yet because she's still a cute newbie okay nye heh heh ╰(✿´⌣`✿)╯♡

Aeiou and Katagi are also kind of safe due to having been targeted with NKs, even though I'm not sure what to think about the double attempt on last phase. My feelings on Tiki and ezz notwithstanding, this leaves the following as my preferred lynch candidates: She-Ra, drandahl and Sammie.

vote: She-Ra because I voted for her last phase too so I feel like picking on her a lil bit more ;w;

wow mean.

this is because I was snobby about coldplay, isn't it?

i'm glad u understand <( ￣ ≧￣)>

I actually will run with "Lux was NK target, and Katagi was a mafia Vig kill target, and Katagi was bulletproof":

I doubt town would use vig kill this early, unless they felt they had to.

Given 3/3 failed kill attempts so far, I'm getting a sense that there's a lot of protection abilities out there. If this is the case, a mafia vig does seem to fit.

Re: potential "why didn't mafia use it on N0?"... it could have been blocked by stun or jail, or could be "every-other-night" use.

Regardless of alignment of kill, Katagi seems like a surprising protect target. So I'll assume self-protect, probably via bulletproof.

I feel like a lot of this is clear (maybe not so much?), so Ezz is worrying me. I also don't feel like Sammiya's really posted enough to read into, so I'd be curious to hear more details from Ezz on this. Until then, Ezz is kind of high on my suspicion list (I recognize she was jailed N0, but honestly that seems like a town-originating action to me, and Ezz doesn't seem like a good N0 NK sender if there are quieter players on mafia), though I'll admit there's still little information in this game. vote: Ezz

If there are redirecting shenanigans afoot, i actually think Ezz might have been a target for one of those kills.

Might.

Anyway, this game is weird, and coming at it from a slow start like I have, not sure what to make of any of it, honestly. Lemme read a bit more thoroughly, I guess, hmm, hmm...

I am almost certain there is a mafia vig in this setup. I also have no reason yet to believe that a town vig would shoot either target from last night at this point in the game.

Actually, I would like to rephrase that.

I am almost certain that the mafia in this setup have the ability to make additional kills on top of the NK in some form or another. I am not inclined to believe that the mafia has a dedicated vigilante role among them. The ratio is already pretty rough for the mafia and we've seen three failed kills already. I somehow don't think the number of failed kills is a coincidence. I also don't think a town-sided player would try to kill someone so early.

I do think the second stun on n0 was due to JOAT/roulette/blind copy, as suggested by ezzelin. However, I think there's a bit more to it than that and I don't think it was due to a roulette or copy and I feel so strongly about this that I am going to simply disregard the possibility for the time being. If I'm wrong, I'll eat dirt or something. I dunno. I'll worry about that later.

I have no reason yet to believe there is redirection afoot, and given Ninfia-cutie's preferences I would be surprised if there was a typical driver. For now I'm inclined to think there isn't redirection going on? I can't be sure or anything but I just kind of doubt it.

Perfectly Average Number wrote:I have no reason yet to believe there is redirection afoot, and given Ninfia-cutie's preferences I would be surprised if there was a typical driver. For now I'm inclined to think there isn't redirection going on? I can't be sure or anything but I just kind of doubt it.

Yeah, I agree here. I'm more likely to explain the N0 NK/(mafvig?) target as a bulletproof block than some bus shenanigans. Though, I'm willing to reconsider given more info.

I'm going to weigh in a bit more on the speculation when I am not pre-occupied, though I will say I am quite fond of the recent high-spec posts.

But I did want to post to comment on something that occurred to me. I feel like there's a possible proof for a lack of bus, at the least, and possibly a redirect:

If the rules explicitly say no role claiming, but target claiming is allowed... both bus and redirect would involve two targets, which basically outs the role on top of claiming targets. Unless this is a big host oversight... Probably unlikely to design a game with no claiming allowed, but you can effectively soft-claim by target claims (unlike stun/protect soft-claims via claiming target, which are still a bit ambiguous in some capacity).

I almost want to say we shouldn't lynch until someone dies during a night phase, because I have a theory that I'd actually laugh if it were the case for this game and seeing more night phases might confirm it. But that's also a good way to lose the game if there's more kill power or mechanics than we're aware of (which there's a good chance of). But that also hurts us long-term with fewer comments and process-of-elimination to utilize, so I'm not heavily leaning on that or even advocating it. I'm just.

Really, really curious about something.

Anyway, will speculate more in the next 1-3 hours when I get a chance.

Unofficial vote tally:

Lucas -> She-Ra
drandahl -> Ezz

She-Ra: I
Ezz: I

Not many votes this game so far.

i WANNA SE MORE VOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Luxaria wrote:I almost want to say we shouldn't lynch until someone dies during a night phase, because I have a theory that I'd actually laugh if it were the case for this game and seeing more night phases might confirm it. But that's also a good way to lose the game if there's more kill power or mechanics than we're aware of (which there's a good chance of). But that also hurts us long-term with fewer comments and process-of-elimination to utilize, so I'm not heavily leaning on that or even advocating it.

I'm against this strategy. If we're standing in kill-heavy bulletproof-heavy game, we might find that town will lose its advantage if we remain idle.

Also with no push to lynch, there's no way to really probe mafia via votes.

I think we have a lot of information already, given who has been targeted for kills. If I assume all kill attempts were mafia-originating, and there's no descum strategy in-place by mafia, I'm considering Lux, Katagi, and Aeiou town.

Here are my thoughts as of right now:

TOWN
Katagi - kill target
Aeiou - kill target
Luxaria - kill target

WOULD BE OKAY LYNCHING:
Rasei - immediately vocal about N0 action, though this claim isn't really falsifiable since she was stunned.

Tinylightsflash - New player. If she were mafia, I would expect she would be a decent N0 NK sender. If it wasn't for the potential of two kill attempts N0 (since we've seen evidence of a potentially maf vig role on N1), I would probably consider her town for now.

High Seraph - still developing opinions on this guy

She-Ra - still developing opinions on this girl

Tiki The Troll - still developing opinions on this guy

Sammiya - still developing opinions on this girl

Five - still developing opinions on this girl

MAYBE-MAF
ezzelin - her spec bothers me (sorry! Mainly, it's different from my spec, and something about your thought process kind of makes me suspicious of you this game so far.) Could have been

OBV SUPER-MAF
drandahl - look at how scummy this guy is I mean really guys. he's not even diving into each player in his spec.