A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

I targeted:

1. Lux
   
2. Ezz
   
3. Rasei

This is a day phase, right?
Where'd all the discussion go?

that's what I'm wondering tiki!! maybe we should start poking at some of the quiet people??

i'll be back from work well before rollover (~9h from this post), so: here's a randomly selectede poke: vote: sammiya

Im really sorry I kind of fell off the map, work has been draining and also I bought overwatch to try and spend some time with my sister lol

I think I caught on to what Lux was saying with the abc's and I think there is something of that sort going on. Theres definitely something not at all average going on, thats for sure haha

It's really strange that there was failed kill and a kill that went through on Five, maybe five had a bulletproof and it absorbed the first and then theres was nothing left to protect the second. I cant handle the fact that there was 4 kill attempts?? like holy shit, I think its somewhat safe to assume that at least one was town out of all that??

The mafia recruit is worrisome but not surprising ?? with all the 0 amount of deaths up until this point for balance

Hmm Im not ready to vote for myself, tlf(just because new), Lux(useful spec)
Uhh yeah idk I dont really know who else haha I finally get my only day off this week tomorrow so just depending on how late I sleep in, I should be up around rollover

That's a lot of attempted dead people. I guess everyone has 1 bulletproof, is there any other reason why so many kills would fail? Definitely want to lynch someone tho it feels like we're all just waiting to be knocked off at this point.

I think that it's reasonable to think most people have a bulletproof. I also think to to reasonable to believe that we have a lot of protects.

Sammiya I
Drandahl I

ezzelin vs.
Five vs.
Luxaria vs.
High Seraph vs. Drandahl
She-Ra vs.
Tiki The Troll vs.
Katagi vs. Sammiya
Rasei vs.
drandahl vs.
Tinylightsflash vs.
Aeiou vs.
Sammiya vs.

I'm gonna be a little less active today because the semester ends tomorrow and I need to wrap up my projects. Also I have no idea what the heck is going on in this game, so. >--(o

I REALLY don't want this phase to end up like the previous day phase tho, with a lot of last minute votes, so I'm gonna go ahead and vote: drandahl, still based on the suspicions I had on D2. Honestly, I'm not really factoring in any of the events from the last phase here because I have no clue how to interpret them, because any action could have come from anyone???

At least we know Five is town. This makes me 99% certain that the jailer is mafia.

And since you guys seem to understand things better than me atm, here are my targets:

• N0 - Rasei
  
• N1 - Luxaria (I was stunned)
  
• N3 - ezzelin
  

I am at work and don't really have anything to offer spec-wise but um, I guess I can claim my targets?

N0 - Vowels
N1 - Tiki
N2 - Lucas

I have to get back to work but I'll be back to check in in a bit.

At work, and I don't have much to add, nor do I have much in terms of a lead. I will say though I'm not inclined to vote Lux, and I'm trying to sort out Lucas (is this "I'm a confused Town" flailing, or "Look how nervous I am, I CAN'T be this confused and anxious if I were Mafia" flailing?). I also won't, under any circumstances, vote Rasei.

Aeiou wrote:I bought overwatch to try

I love playing Widowmaker, but D.va is my waifu /////

Hmm...

This got slow while I was away. Let's see. I want to do a lot of backreading in a few when I am more awake, however preliminary thoughts:

1. As far as the recruitment effect goes, there's a lot of ways this could be approached, and sadly it's hard for us to predict. Mafia can either pick a target no one expects, pick a target everyone expects (and hope the WIFOM of this wins out), pick a target cleared as town, and so on and so forth. The key thing about a recruitment is that no matter what, only one player's allegiance swapped. So while arguably you have reason not to trust previous town reads, at most only one of them is going to have been swapped around. I'll return to this.

2. Mafia's in an interesting position. I don't know how strongly Hayley weighed this recruitment effect against the obvious bulletproof and vigilante spam. Inarguably, town has a greater chance to hit town than mafia by firing shots without considering reads. I am inclined to think Hayley wouldn't just toss the mafia out into the game without giving them a way to survive, meaning they're likely to have bulletproofs as well. Killproofs, rather, since I think that's what's going on.

Common consensus is that the jailer role belongs to mafia, which provides another "protection" from kills. Jail targets have been ezzelin, Five, and Luxaria. I'm the only one that received a kill the same night as a jail, so that's anyone's game to interpret. I have been wondering whether or not mafia would try to do a play where they send a kill in on themselves to look town. In other words, they know the mafia would survive, and receiving what can be traced back to a night kill would be beneficial. I'm also guessing mafia had a clear idea of the number of bulletproofs and vigilantes since I'm sure they had them, too. I think so, at least.

If that's the case, they would know it was going to be a long slog at the start while they set up their position, but that they'd later have a recruit and similar. It seems like no coincidence that the phase after it became clear everyone suspected similar roles across all players that there were two kill attempts submitted on Five, knocking out her bulletproof and then killing her.

Thus, my immediate thought turns to all kill targets.

N0: Aeiou
N1: Katagi, Luxaria
N2: Five (x2), Luxaria, ezzelin

This interests me because on N0 my top 2 for receiving the NK were Aeiou and Tiki the Troll based off of the players in the game. I went with Tiki despite my initial read being Aeiou. This is partly I subscribed strongly to the idea that Aeiou was the proper NK. The only way this changes is if mafia pulled a gambit of sending the N0 kill in on Aeiou with the hope that she'd look pro-town, and meanwhile Aeiou was mafia. I've seen this pulled before. Alternatively, the easiest play in the book would be to know you're going to recruit Aeiou later on, submit N0 NK on her, and then recruit her when the time comes.

The same can be said of Katagi and myself, so at this point I am just going to address it and say: If you find the recruitment or possible presence of a setup as any reason to doubt me--as Katagi says--that's fine. I understand. I'd do the same if I were in your shoes. But I am going to continue to pursue and fight for my leads. As such, I'm going to ignore myself from N1/N2 for the following speculation for the obvious reason.

The alternative from my perspective of Aeiou being the screwy kill attempt, if there were one, is Katagi. Most of us did find Katagi's N1 attempted kill to be very unusual, to the point where it felt unlikely for a town to do it--but not unreasonable. That said, mafia didn't have strong clause to go after her since, knowing what we know now, how would any comments about the vigilante really cause them concern? The only way that kill comes from town is if someone like Five or myself fired it off figuring that we were likely to die and just went for the logically best one--I think ezz plotted out the advantages of picking katagi in this regard, but I could be wrong. Meaning the kill either came from off of a town on a whim, or it was deliberate by the mafia.

Hmm. I also want to believe I was being primed on N1 for last night, where Five and myself received a cumulative three kill attempts. Easy to off both of us, though then we go back into the, "Why not convert", and I can't quite answer that. Doubly so if we're convinced mafia has the jail, which makes this weird to follow since I... it'd be really weird for mafia to submit both a jail and NK on me as either frame or clear, depending on your perspective and interpretation. Meaning if mafia did jail me and didn't shoot me (which they might well have done), some town would have had to shot me. If anyone did or ever felt like shooting me prior to last night, feel free to be honest. It helps my speculation more than you know.

The only other person to receive a kill is ezzelin. This is the one I'm really not sure how to process, so I'm going to leave it here for now until after I've re-read the thread as I plan to do. After I'm a little more awake.


Anyway, these are just preliminary thoughts. Short version is I'm a little suspicious of Aeiou and katagi due to the possibility of a gambit. As far as players go, the newbie immunity on Tiny has worn off for me, and I'll be evaluating everything Tiki says this phase as planned (see D2 list of reads). The other players... it's hard to chart. No one has moved up on free-of-suspicion. Rasei felt pro-town last day phase given how that all went down, but in hindsight everyone apparently had clause to know about the roles. I'd imagine a mafia would see no trouble outing that if it might help them, but... still. It's just a vibe.

Everyone else I'll provide more reads and thoughts on after I've re-read. So with that said, afk for a bit.

tl;dr: Going to backread thread shortly and assess everything after I'm a little more awake. Curious about all kill attempts and jailed targets following spec. Find the possibility of a maf gambit to fakeclear one as town via a kill probable given the presence of bulletproofs, meaning I'm looking at Aeiou and katagi a bit in that regard. There's probably a little more I could summarize, but just going to stop this here.

"preliminary thoughts"

>2000 word essay

N0) Drandahl
N1) Aeiou
N2) I stupidly forgot to do anything, but had been considering ezz,

Okay. So Five is gone, someone's been recruited (which makes me feel a bit... twitchy... right now), and now we need to play a game of whack the recruited mafia member.

I'm not by my motes right now, but here are some thoughts:

We've been acting very lynch-hesitent this game. There's also neen a lot of talk about theories around the meta, this being a "Perfectly Average Game." Both of these things I feel were keeping us from digging into individual player behavior as much as we could have.

I think there's a lot of information in the Rasei near-lynch we should look more closely at. Tiki, based on voting information in that phase alone, who do you currently suspect?

Edit: actually, scratch that, Tiki. @Anyone, can you provide thoughts on this? I'd like to hear from Tiki, Lucas, Ezz, and She-ra

I targeted...

TFL N0.

Not saying who N1 and N2 just yet.