Paw Enforcement [BEARS WIN]

*cross arms*
vote:no vote

Phase end

GOD DAMNIT
I FUCKING KNEW IT

I'm 75% either Gerbear or Ninfia are mafia (leaning towards Ninfia) with Ezz or Mr. Alice being the other mafia member.

GODDAMN i felt that was too easy but the feeling came too late tbqh

Sorry, lux :(

Calling it now: mafia kills ninfia so it looks like I'm mafia and everybody lynches me next day. Idek anymore

RIP Lux.

Well. There's that.
Was Rasei's official last vote on herself or no vote? I assume she got the one for herself in on time? Otherwise someone would have a gun which would switch things up slightly.
Currently worst case scenario one of Gerry and Ninfia (or both) is town and gets the NK putting us at 2:3 to start the next day phase. We have to lynch a mafia this next day phase and the only way is if it's Gerry or Ninfia.

Best? case mafia shoots not Gerry or Ninfia and we'd keep 2:4 ratio
And Im running out of time before work starts back up to finish that thought but
things look dire ;^;

well, shit.

I was pretty sure about lux and now I'm going to have to reevaluate my reads in light of that.

all that being said, I also did ask for thread feedback on how people would like me to use (or not use) my gun. I imagine one of gerry or I will die tonight. I'm not sure that gerry is maf, but I can't disregard the possibility, I guess...

Lux said that she thought ezz might be the other mafia member, what are people's thoughts on that so far?

I'm a little lost on trusting my own reads right now, and I'm working a 12 hour shift tomorrow so I'm not quite sure what to do.

If Ninfia and I are both Town, the only way we win is by lynching actual maf next phase AND an actual town shooting someone during the night. Because yeah like Aeiou said, if I'm killed (or town Ninfia), ratio tomorrow is 2:3.

Scenarios for post D5:
1. I die tonight and town Ninfia is lynched: 2:2, maf wins
2. I die tonight and mafia Ninfia is lynched: 1:3, game continues
3. Town Ninfia dies tonight and I'm lynched: 2:2 maf wins

4. Maf shoots someone else tonight and a town (me, town Ninfia or whoever else is shot tonight) is lynched: 2:3, but there's still two people vulnerable to be NK'd and one of them is likely gonna be town so maf wins after N5.

5. Maf shoots someone else tonight and a maf (maf Ninfia or whoever else is shot tonight) is lynched: 1:4 which would be great tbqh but highly unlikely

6. Maf shoots someone else tonight and nobody dies after the vote: 2:4 except this time 4 people are vulnerable to die and two new people have guns so if one of the guns is with a maf, we lose because at least 2 people of the 4 vulnerable ones (including me) will be town and they will die at N5.

And let's not forget that Ninfia has a gun tonight!!! I haven't factored that in at all yet oops there's a whole bunch of other scenarios to address in case Ninfia shoots someone and I can probably write them all down later but right now I'm at TARGET partaking in the AMERICAN tradition of CAPITALISM.

Basically if I die tonight, I'll be revealed as town and it's 50/50 that Mafia wins if y'all lynch Ninfia

If Ninfia dies tonight... don't lynch me because we lose

If Ninfia is mafia she could shoot me and mafia would shoot someone else leaving Ninfia and someone else vulnerable at which point that someone else should not be lynched but it could be A RUSE idek man

well shit.

now I gotta reread some posts and review my thoughts because this sure wasn't within my expectations.

will post player analysis post later when I'm back from my errands.

Hmm. So without going into Ninfia's alignment too much

1.a - Maf kills a town(fia), Ninfia kills a maf!Gerry - 1:3 (best case)
1.b - Maf kills a town(fia), Ninfia kills a town!Gerry - 2:2 (worst case, game over)
1.c - Maf kills a town!Gerry, Ninfia also kills Town!Gerry - 2:3
2.a - Maf kills a town, Ninfia shoots random town player - 2:3 (But town with one less bulletproof)
2.b - Maf kills a town, Ninfia shoots random mafia player - 2:3 (Mafia has one less bulletproof)
3 - Maf kills a town, Ninfia abstains - 2:3 (only whoever isnt NK'd would be missing their bulletproof)
4 - Maf shoots random (town?) player, Ninfia kills Maf!Gerry - 1:4 (actual best case lol but odds are low)

Im not including Mafia abstaining since I doubt they will and it would be like situation 4 only they wouldnt even strip a town bulletproof.
Shooting Gerry could lead into a game over so I at least wouldnt do that unless you're sure Gerry is maf?? Unless both Maf and Fia couple on Gerry then it wouldnt really hurt ratio more than it would already be (like Lux with Tiki)

Im super tired so Im sorry if this trails off or rampant typos happen haha
These will be quick because most of it hasnt changed?

Ninfia - Leaning more town since the NK
Rasei - Still leaning town but it is a fragile reason
ezzelin - (Just repeating this from yesterday) Ezz is likely mafia (and I might've thought the same with Ninfia but that NK makes me feel otherwise)
Mr. Gerbear - I can believe that Gerry could be slipping by as maf, however I dont know if he would be mafia with Ezz. Hard to tell but Lux made a good post about this
Mr. Alice - ???

I really want to go back at some point and take a closer look at interactions between each player and Lux... but rn Im too tired :<