Paw Enforcement [BEARS WIN]

this post ended up really long so there's a tl;dr at end if you don't want to read!

Okay, that was... interesting?

I feel like there are very few specific scenarios that actually lend themselves to ninfia getting shot, so I'll just go over them since vowels already laid out all the possibility quite clearly.

If gerry is town, he has no reason to lie about who he shot, meaning he shot town of maf Lux. If Lux is actually town, I can see mafia not nk'ing her in order to get her lynched, but that doesn't explain why they wouldn't shoot gerry. It breaks the pattern and while it strips off another killproof, it also makes someone else look town, and I sincerely doubt that at this point in game they would try to gambit and shoot one of their own.
If lux is mafia, it makes even more sense to not nk her obviously, but it still doesn't explain why they didn't shoot gerry. Though... if they wanted to distance themselves from the pattern more rather than making it look "oh look, lux is def. mafia since gerry got shot over her while either could be killed", in that case, it kinda makes sense. I guess I can see mafia!Lux picking this as a last resort choice of sorts, too. If ninfia is actually mafia with lux, it... actually makes no sense for her to be shot and bring attention to her right now. It would make much more sense for her to just heavily bus lux and keep her killproof rather than lose it.

If gerry is mafia, then it doesn't really matter whether he lied about shooting lux because both shots were his anyway. In this case, it makes sense for the mafia to distance themselves from the previous pattern regardless of Lux's alignment. If she is town, maf!gerry would shoot someone else because Lux is already under heavy suspicion, and not doubling-up on her would continue to make her look suspicious. If Lux is mafia as well, then obv. he can't kill her. He would still have to shoot her in order to continue to appear town, though, or come up with good reasoning why he'd shoot someone else. Still, I don't think this is too likely at all. In both cases however, I ninfia would have to be town for this to make sense.

In short, I'm now fairly certain that ninfia is town. Gerry is probably also town, because the maf!Gerry theory makes less sense + my reads so far.

Of course, the mafia could very well have anticipated us thinking this, and acted with that in mind, but well, something something wifom. On top of that, for mafia to clear mafia!ninfia this way would be... really risky imho, and I don't see any other reason to give us information and almost confirm a townie. (Also, from my experience, it's kinda harder to predict all of this when you're actually calling the shots on the nk, so I find this less likely.)

Aside from that, I still feel that lux is highly likely mafia, primarily because of the discrepancies between her plans and her actions - that's honestly something I don't see town!Lux doing without a good reason, e.g. to get information and/or flush out mafia - and neither of that happened. Her absence from the thread after being accused by multiple people only confirms my suspicions, as maf!Lux tends to give up when it looks like she can't win (at least that was the case last time I've seen her maf). Honestly, that's part of why I pressed on her more, because town!Lux tends to defend herself until the very end, while maf!Lux gives up soon enough if she's pressed hard.

Oops, this post got out of hand.

tl;dr:
Due to the possibilities of maf/town combinations and their implications, I strongly believe ninfia is town. Gerry is also highly likely town. I'm still certain that Lux is mafia based on her behaviour (reasons in last paragraph).

vote: Luxaria

Oh yeah, blaire, why do you think me and rasei are mafia? I'm curious to hear your thinking. o wo

And rasei's too, I think you haven't posted your reads recently? I know you've had /still have? keyboard issues, but any sort of input would be appreciated.

I'm still uncertain on the last one myself, but I have a few ideas and plan to post before I go to bed today, assuming I don't start feeling worse again.

Ninfia - at this point esp I dont think Ninfia is mafia, I havent always been in line with her thinking but I dont think mafia wouldve NK'd themselves last night esp if the other doesnt have bulletproof (assuming maf is one of gerry/lux)

Rasei - I've already explained why I think Rasei is town though its not a super strong reasoning tbh especially since she hasnt been able to post much since

Luxaria - I've already gone into this. I still want to trust lux as town but there are some decent points against this so Im just really confused lol

ezzelin - I think my feelings on Ezz really just hinge on if lux is mafia or not. If lux is mafia then I highly doubt Ezz is mafia with her, if lux is town however then I think Ezz is likely mafia (and I might've thought the same with Ninfia but that NK makes me feel otherwise)

Mr. Gerbear - I can believe that Gerry could be slipping by as maf, this is another person hinging on Lux's alignment for me

Mr. Alice - Also another candidate for slipping under the radar as maf. Blaire hasnt been involved in a whole lot of anything so its hard to say for sure

So basically I think me, Ninfia, and Rasei are town and possibly Lux. If lux is town then I think Gerry and Ezz are mafia or replace one of those with Blaire. If Lux is mafia then I think Blaire would be the other mafia. That or I really need to reassess Rasei and Ninfia.

It would really just be easier for me to go with the grain and vote for lux, I'd rather go with vote: Gerry even though I feel like this will make me look scummy esp if Lux really is maf. And I know this sounds super confusing but even though I dont feel like voting for lux at this point I still think she would provide the most info being lynched? Gerry sort of falls into that category but Lux more so since she has done more spec. So depending on how the vote is swinging before I go to work tomorrow I guess my vote could change. IM REALLY CONFLICTED RN ahhh Ill think about things while I sleep maybe ;^;

I also Vote: Luxaria. We'll get the most out of knowing Lux's alignment, really. If Lux turns up Town, I'm an easy lynch next Day, if you want to confirm that I'm also town. I'd not suggest doing that because of the ratio tho haha..................

Idk tho, whoever survives this lynch without being killproof would probably die next night??

Tho I think it benefits the Mafia to actually spread around the kills because then it's up to Town to figure out who's Mafia or not and that would lead to a much higher percentage of error.... and when everyone's out of bulletproofs, Town'll be easy pickins

It's confirmed, my body officially hates me. Just popping in to let you know that yeah, I did/do feel worse tho this time it's cause stomach disagrees with food so hopefully will be ok by morning. Going to bed now. Hoping to wake up to good news.

get well soon :(

We have three more lose until mafia wins. If we misLynch a town, and one of the two people have with a gun is Mafia. They can win tomorrow phase:

1: we killed gerry, Ninfia, or Lux and they are town. Ratio would be: 2-4
2: if Lux or Ninfia is Mafia, they shoot a town. They then can use the other kill on someone that is everyones list that is protected. Also if Lux or Ninfia use their gun to hit a town today, mafia could instead kill that town.  would of most likely ratio: 2:3 at worst they win.

I'm not caught up with thread and at work on break. Will 5ry to catch up later if I get off in time. Not sure because they might need me to close tonight because they don't have dishwasher

sorry yall i still dont really have anything concrete on those feels, i just feel like out of those two names, maybe one is maf??? im really sorry you guys like this type of game is just.....my super effective weak point OTL

but as much as it'd suck at losing a potentially town lux, after reading all these beautiful walls, i cant say that i disagree with the notion that her alignment reveal would give valuable info. Vote: Luxaria

man and i was sure it was a night phase too wth is up with my phase clock???

Rasei doesn't need to stay to late today after all. Not only did I get leave earlier then I thought, my manager gave me a ride home. NO BUS WOOT

*cross arms* My gut feeling is saying that Lux is town. I wish she would talk but she did say last phase something about not talking anymore.

vote:Rasei

If Lux doesn't show up to vote, someone who did vote is getting a gun right

Lux, are you doing Tiki's thing? You are totally doing Tiki's thing...

I'm feeling like that town is going to lose yet again.

Please make one final post Lux before you died

Hmmm.

Fine. A succinct summary for reference when I die in case it helps you pin mafia.

1. I defended myself a lot against katze because, as I kept trying to express, I had trusted her and did not think she was mafia. I kept focusing on the matter of how the game might work because I felt she did not follow my reasoning, which in turn made her think I was trying to set her up. Thus I feared if she did not grasp this concept, she'd continue after me since my reasons for voting for her hinged a lot on such variables and game mechanics. This would mean if she had the opportunity, she'd either try to shoot or lynch me, and I feared whether successful or unsuccessful the town (especially in my absence) would try to go for her. I did not want this, since worst-case scenario the game would lose the two most talkative town. And now it has. So, that was all pointless.

2. I made statements on how I wanted guns and shooting to work, as well as voting and spreading "opened up targets" out. I then shot Tiki. This was a misread, and it really sucks how one misread then summons the thread's ire upon me, but I can sort of see where you're coming from. More specifically, it felt like a  results-oriented perspective instead of evaluating my intents, my pushing for people to contribute, how much I tried in other ways to get players off of pro-town targets, and other things. I am naturally biased in this regard since I had heat on me and I felt I was pro-town. I guess I wasn't.

In hindsight, I should have pressed Tiki to discuss his targeting more as I had expressed I wanted him to do, but I was exhausted from my other posts. I then began to worry that Tiki had a reasonable to strong chance of being mafia by allowing himself to lose killproof to look town. I then felt he, with very little thread presence and activity, jumped to shoot Ninfia and then Katze, the former of which hadn't been around much like himself. This felt very strange to me and out of his character. I decided to shoot him thinking that I either had a good chance to kill a mafia or prevent misdirection if mafia went on another target--and had mafia NK'd him, my shot didn't harm a town that wasn't already screwed. If mafia hadn't killed him or he had shot a pro-town target (as he did) or anything else, I feared the thread might get too stuck on trying to puzzle that out, so I tried to take initiative. Worst-case, I thought his shot or the NK would strip a killproof off of another player so we wouldn't be stuck without that going into D3. I made an oversight and didn't think about how plainly he broadcast shooting Katze, which led to mafia doubling up with him. I made a mistake in that way, and I didn't pay the situation as much attention as I could have done. But I felt the logic was reasonable for A) My concerns/suspicions on how he was behaving and playing, and B) Trying to safeguard against potential mafia ploys/setups. If they NK'd him, my shot wouldn't kill someone that wasn't already condemned to die. Was my decision a mistake? I guess so, and if I had gone back I would've shot ezzelin as I initially planned to, if only to give town a chance to discuss things rather than decide for them. I found the fact that everyone latched onto, "Partly because he was sick" to be a bit bizarre, since he had kept saying he felt so dizzy and couldn't follow, and I figured if he was town, he would not be able to defend himself if he was set up in any capacity (if he wasn't mafia). But he had been posting, so I guess it was a bad idea in the end.

3. I am naturally biased to defend myself, especially when I feel I am being targeted for reasons not linked to things I did or said in the thread. I felt I was not being given due credit, and I got frustrated. I also did not like posting so much, and as I was posting I became aware of the fact that it was bogging down the thread. I learned a lesson in communicating, since this was my first game as town in 8 months and I got too gung-ho trying to lead town out of inactivity. If I play again, or if I ever invest effort in again, I'll keep this game in mind. I tried not to be aggressive, but I am human and get frustrated. At core, I just wanted people to post and to try and understand concepts.

I have now casually disregarded this bullet-point by being tl;dr, but this is the last wording I can get out this game after not posting for two phases. So, you can deal with it.

4. I feel bad for not being around since my last post, but I checked with Kiyo and I was okay to not post since it wasn't viewed as game-throwing in light of everything else. The thread did not agree with me, so there wasn't much I could do except make myself more upset. I hope this is not resented. I also was not happy that I gave mafia the satisfaction of emotionally unstabilizing me and getting me out of the thread. For this reason, I am inclined to think mafia is split between one player that pushed on me (ezzelin, Gerry, Ninfia) and one player that did not (Aeiou, Rasei, Mr. Alice). I partly suggested Gerry ask for replacement out of concern both for his state in-game and out-of-game, but also because it's easy for mafia to coast until they're threatened for being inactive. Make no mistakes: I meant every word I said to you, Gerry, but it was also a bit of a litmus test. The results were interesting.

I can't tell if ezzelin is sick or just not thinking well, but she's felt off to me. Ninfia has pressured me, and she has a weird tie-in to Dylan early on. That said she otherwise feels more pro-town than the other two. Aeiou has had reasonable thoughts and truthfully I have no reason to suspect her, but this has made me wonder if she might be the other half given how she has maintained trust in me. Maybe I am just so jaded after seeing the thread turn on me by 3-5+ people, but that lingering trust from her--and even Rasei--does stand out. I won't think any more on this because I'm about to be dead. Blaire, meanwhile, hasn't really felt mafia to me. I have no real reasons.

Thus if I had to give reads, I'd say 85% on at least one of ezzelin, Gerry, and Ninfia, and I think ezzelin and Gerry are higher up there. I'd say 55-60% on one of Aeiou or Rasei given what I said above, and I think Blaire is more pro-town than not. These reads are not fully developed, so. Just bear in mind how mafia would choose to view katze and myself and exploit that, and also what their goals might be in having both Gerry and Ninfia be without killproof. (Edit: Mafia could be both in one group or the other, btw. I just think it makes sense for one of them to add push to try and eliminate me, but I'd be surprised if both mafia pushed so hard knowing I'd flip town. I'd also be very surprised if both of them expressed trust in me and it was solely town going after me)

5. Good luck, and I'm sorry.