Gakuen Mafia EP04-EP08 [ENG SUB]

nautilus wrote:I'm not... certain... they would bus a fellow mafia member that they were aware was going to be removed from the game...

For the record, I am getting pretty strong town vibes from Ezreal, but: why wouldn't mafia do this? In theory, Ezreal, or anyone in Ezreal's shoes, could just post that vote with reasonable logic, then not post again in the thread for 12-16 hours, come back and say "oh wow what did I miss" and swap their vote to a new target without looking suspicious.

re: policy lynching. True, mafia could push it, but that says something in and of itself, doesn't it? And we'd know for sure that player was a town and could use it for cross-referencing.

I should say that I personally really, really hate lynching town under any circumstance. I treat each town lynch as a personal failure. In the past few games I've done, I've voted for players I truly didn't think were mafia just because the situation warranted it, and each time I've felt really bad about it and hated having to do it. But if the player does not defend themself, ehhh.

It's a grey area, I think. It's my last resort if there are no better options, because if 7/10 people are talking and centering the discussion and contentions around and amongst each other, while 30% of the players are left out due to inactivity... I mean, 30% is the standard mafia ratio, and excluding these people altogether because they're not talking might be a big blunder. Policy lynching is a solution to this, I guess, though you are right that it is scary when it morphs into a bandwagon.

There are advantages and disadvantages, I feel. But, I don't know if it's really worth the discussion space for us to keep on this topic instead of analyzing the other things in this phase. I think you said before you were waiting for eleni to post before speculating? Actually, I said as much, but tbh her post didn't really provide the clarity I was hoping for. I guess we can chalk it down to her not having any form of redirect or stun active or passive?

Edit: I see you posted as I wrote this. Reading.

((P.S. @ Kiyoko: Suggestion for info-dump: voting timeline? D-don't hate me for this suggestion! I can do all the votes up until this page to get you started, if you want? It would add more things to track, though, so it's your decision.))

You can make one if you want. I don't usually do vote timestamp logs unless I have a reason to believe that mafia was trying to coordinate a lynch, and it didn't seem like that was the case during D1 since most people kind of just went straight for the NL.

Cleaned up these posts, spaced out some sections, and fixed a few typos:

The Facts:

Hints and claims:

ACTUAL CURRENT RELATIONSHIPS:

Relationship Timeline:

BLAIRE YOUR ART IS SO CUTE I am definitely doing eleni/Blaire fan art before the end of the game, hold me to it.

kiyoOOO FANARTTT?!?!?!

Spoiler:

A-aLSO THANK YOU THAT MEANS SO MUCH COMING FROM YOU AHHHHHHHH

((That Blaireni fanart is fantastic!))

A few questions for Tiki:

"Yo, teeks! Bummer what happened to Jaiser-kun. I know you wanted to be like... Super-Pals or something with him, unsurprising considering your mutual ahuman origins, but I wanted to ask you, what did you see in the guy? Did he ever respond to you? Also, I forget, were you approaching Tet-kun, or was he approaching you? Also, remind me again why you turned Kota-chan down?

Also, not inclined to vote for now:
Sammiya, Rasei, Raina, Kiyo, Naut, Tet, High Seraph, Kotakia

ok finally back lmao, drinking and watching eternal sunshine of the spotless mind = sadness.

Mr. Alice wrote:

Bb are you ok?

Mr. Alice wrote:

Fia, I can't believe you would imply that I would hurt or stun my own girlfriend, I would never do that intentionally! (And yes, you can say that I'm claiming to not have a contact-related stunning role.) Eleni, please shout if you're ok, do I need to get a medical professional for you?

/dusts off self

No worries Blaire, I appreciate the concern though. Dinner will be ready on the table as usual tonight.

...Whoever you are, though, stunner, I didn't appreciate that.


(jk it's fine)

aaa Jaiser glad to hear you're doing all right (if ridiculously busy!!)

deo wrote:Ummmmmm okay so I have reason to believe one of the stunners is also like... a "Magic Coat" role??? Like, I used an action on eleni last night and it got bounced back to me which.... ended up doing absolutely nothing lol

so either there is a magic coat inducer attached to one of the stuns or a driver just did something really hilarious

...and hmm, that's pretty interesting. not really sure what to make of it but it would make sense to have a stunner in the game that's not just a "normal" stunner considering we saw three stuns n0.

and umm so my earlier post was only directed at nautilus's initial question about whether the stun was connected to me (didn't get to deo's post about reflection yet). like i said, neither my ability/secondary ability are in anyway connected to a stun, so i'm not sure what happened? for what it's worth, i actually tried to act on Jaiser last night lol. other than that, i really don't have any other information and am pretty  much just as clueless.

Ninfia wrote:((Eleni is like a non-stick pan : D

LOL.

T3tsuya wrote:My cell has an alarm that goes off when certain keywords of personal interest are mentioned or it detects the scent of poor people within 20 feet of me.

oh my god Tet you are having way too much fun

Mr. Alice wrote:

A Very Very Accurate Portrayal of My Night 1 w/ Eleni:

omg <333 THAT IS TOO CUTE. sdfjflsdf I WISH I HAD SOME SEMBLANCE OF ARTISTIC TALENT also i will go down with you in this ship. AND MIXTAPES??? * O*

also Kiyoko i will definitely hold you to that promise :'D

Well, this has been frustrating. My internet kept cutting in and out, particularly favoring the timing of whenever I tried to look at the forum.

ADA WHY. Mafia, y u do this?

T3T you're k-kinda intimidating with all of that...

OHgeez! Good luck with all of that work, Jaiser! That's a ton of stuff going on for you, klgrlk.

But I'm not particularly inclined to vote for:
Cure-senpai(<3), Kiyonyan, T3t, Rasei, nautilus, deo, or Luxaria.

HOLD ON. I HAVE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR DEO.

deo wrote:Like, I used an action on eleni last night and it got bounced back to me which.... ended up doing absolutely nothing lol

...........could you say this was a "y i visitan" moment?

Ah ok I think I’ve finally mostly moved in so here’s a post with actual content addressing some questions! I'm too tired to format this with emotes lies down

Regarding my stun on n0: I didn’t perform any actions on n0. That being said, this is mostly in response to Luxaria since they brought up the most specific possibilities, but these are the possibilities/reasoning I can think of behind it--
1) I was stunned as the side effect of someone else’s role effect (like I said, I can’t have triggered a conditional stun. I can only think this would likely have to be some sort of role that sends out stuns as a result of actions?) I’d say this type of stun could either be town or mafia?
2) I was the target of a redirect. I did not confess or receive a confession, and I don’t have a magic coat-like role so the redirect was not relationship-based or conditional either. This makes it seem like a totally random redirect choice (if the redirecter had a choice at all). IMO this stun could also either be town or mafia (ex, someone randomly redirected a stun while trying to protect either themselves or someone else).
3) I was deliberately stunned by mafia. The main reasons I can think of for a deliberate stun would be: a) to cast suspicion on me as a quieter player or that b) someone had reason to be curious about my role effect and wanted me to speak up about it. I will say that my role effect is passive, but stunning does prevent it from working.

Unfortunately as a newbie player my knowledge of past roles isn’t very comprehensive. If someone wants to comment on how likely it’d be that any roles would have random redirects/conditions/etc do let me know if any of these seem more plausible than others. I know this is closed role/upick which means basically anything is possible but perhaps someone else has comments on whether any of the possible stun roles seem more logical than others based on experience…my impression has been that both stunners and stun-protection have utility for either alignment, and due to that and the closed role nature of the game I’m currently viewing all these options as about equal with our current amount of info??

@Luxaria I’m also curious why you think my stun is the outlier or stand-out compared to chi (which you stated was reasonable) and deo's jailing (which you said was also unexpected)? You say that it seems like a reversal of days. Does my stun mainly seem like an outlier just because I’m new or haven’t provided many thoughts on my stun yet, then? This isn’t meant to be an accusatory question, I’m just curious because I don’t think chi has said anything about her role or actions on n0 either except that it wasn’t sensitive information/she had no idea.

I’m going to do a bit more thorough reading since more posts have been made and there's a lot more I didn't get around to commenting on or making notes for myself yet. I'll be back hopefully with some more questions, I’m really sorry for not having been around much so far. I’ve had my hands full moving and am not really used to fast-paced forum games and the amount of information is a bit overwhelming at first. /o\

I'm in the same boat as kiku in the sense that I'm not used to being on a fast-paced forum while involved in an info-heavy game, but I am trying to keep up! Also, I literally sat here all night wondering why notifications stopped after alca-sensei said she was posting rollover and only realized not too long ago that the topic was split. Whoops.

Also it's 4am PST, I can't sleep (been awake since 2:30am PST) and I caught up and am posting on mobile so if my post doesn't make sense, it's probably because of a various combination of those reasons.

Jaiser: sorry to hear about real life getting in the way; hope to play a full game with you soon!

Anyways, in terms of spec. Sorry if disjointed or repeating info that's already been aired, kind of just doing a late night ramble. I'm not necessarily inclined to vote for: Kotakia and Rasei for certain. I'm willing to believe that Kotakia has been fairly forthcoming about her role, so I'm inclined to believe she's town. I agree with everyone's spec that Rasei sounds like the fanfic writer, but as it appears to be fairly harmless and doesn't noticeably affect the game, other than to provide more spec opportunities, I'm going to let that slide by as well.

I'm also in a relationship now, by the way. I received an adorable confession <3 We are making sweet music together and I will let the other person come out and confirm if they want to, though I will provide that info if pressured to.

In terms of the stuns and NKs (the attempt and the actual - rip adawg), I don't really have any further info than what's already been thrown around. I definitely agree that Lux and Kiyoko are fairly high-priority targets. It's interesting to see that the attempt on Lux was... Less severe? Than the attempt on Kiyoko (considering that Lux was stunned and Kiyoko has a NK attempt on her). I'm also intrigued on the attempts being separated. I would think mafia would try to take out the high priority vets all at once, leaving us newbies to flounder while they laugh at us :( spacing it out might make it seem less suspicious? I don't know; maybe I'm reading too much into it. Or I'm rambling nonsense in my sleep-deprived state @_@

In terms of suspicion, I'm not getting too scary of a vibe off the couples (Kiyo/Lucas, the waifus, Kotakia/T3t, Blaire/eleni and the others I can't remember right now as can't be damned to track down via mobile right now), but I would think it's reasonable to believe there's a least one mafia pairing in there. Also still not sure what to think about the sister-ship, but I'm sure I'll develop more thoughts when I'm more coherent.

I'm not really sure what else I have to say. Ask me questions, give my thoughts direction since I'm new here and not very good at this (；´Д`A

And for the love of god, let me sleep soon.

Blaire found a dramabun. I found a hungerbear:

sorry-for-the-lighting:

Sleeping until the morning, but up-to-date and will post later. Sorry you're having trouble sleeping, Raina!

Hmmm. So eleni's role has no association to stuns in any capacity. She never directly stated whether or not she has some form of redirection? But I guess given her last post, the omission of such a statement means she probably doesn't have it, else I think she would've commented on it, given how the discussion developed. Mr. Alice has also said that she does not have some sort of relationship redirect or stun or whatever.

Hm.

So deo claims that on N1 he attempted to act on eleni and had it redirected to himself. I guess here's one easy thing to try...

If anyone else acted on eleni in any capacity on N1, can you speak up? I guess this might be sensitive information to some people, so even on the slim chance possibly three people targeted her last night (Blaire, your girlfriend is popular), we might only hear from deo in the end.

Actually, for that matter... Did anyone act on kiku, chinomi, or Kotakia on N0? Might be just as much of a long shot, but it could also help us narrow down how many stuns we're dealing with?

But otherwise...

1) eleni was stunned by an ability that also reflects actions
2) deo was redirected back to deo
3) eleni and deo were switched via bus driver, but this means deo would've been the target of a stun
4) the reflect on eleni has limited charges and reflected deo's action, but not the stun

I think that's all of them? I know others have said these already, but just rehashing. I don't know what seems most likely, honestly. But one thing does stand out:

chinomi wrote:The only problem with it being a once-per-every-two-nights deal is that it was in play last night and there were three stuns D1 and only two stuns this time around

So if whatever it was that hit eleni happened to be the first item on the list and has a cooldown... then where on earth did two of our stuns go? Are there that many conditional stuns?

I'll get to kiku in a moment, but the reason I toyed with the idea of something like the third option so much was because of the stun on kiku N0. But with the option being eleni and deo being switched between each other, after possibly kiku and someone else? I honestly don't know.

@ Kiku:

Thanks for the reply! The reason I view your stun as the outlier is solely due to your newbie status. Iirc, chinomi is a vdex vet? Maybe I imagined that, too, since apparently I got Adawg mixed up. But even still, chinomi has definitely played before, whereas this is your first game. I probably shouldn't view deo's jailing as unexpected in the same regard as I view your stunning, since he's from vdex, too. I kind of viewed deo's jailing as unexpected because I remember in our last game (Bed and Breakfast) he had the misfortune of not being noticed very often ;w; So that kind of affected my analysis.

But the gist of it is a new player getting very deliberately targeted by a stun N0 seemed unusual to me, when every other stun has been on a mid-to-high veteran target. As such, I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out the alignment of who sent it, which roused my suspicions of perhaps someone setting up a redirect between you and one of those mid-to-high veteran targets so that you, as a less likely recipient of any adverse affects, could act as a sponge and take the hit for this other player.

Does that make sense? I don't know how much I subscribe to this theory, but I have a weird feeling about it. I'm not willing to comment on whether or not this redirect is an every-other-phase or not, and, if not, then I am completely unsure if I'd feel comfortable saying this player then swapped eleni and deo N1. Still.... I'm keeping it in mind.

Of course, maybe in the end you were just deliberately stunned. Hmmm.

@ My beautiful waifu:

I love you. <3333 And I approve of your notes, and your pretty face ~ !

I don't think you are necessarily the person with suspicion on them to the greatest degree after how the past two phases cleared up, and posting and offering thoughts does help substantially, but, hmm. I have a poor track record judging your alignment (blinded by love?), and thus I stated earlier I will reserve judgment until I have conclusive evidence one way or another--but, obviously, I am not going to follow up a vote on Alice unless I see something damning. I mean, she is my waifu.

That said, for relationship-related reasons, I will go on record as stating that I am disinclined to vote for AliceofOz for now while I observe how the game progresses and what information comes to light. Regardless, I believe she intends to defend herself if nautilus and Tiki still harbor suspicions after last phase, so this statement may be moot.

@ Raina-chan

Eee! That was a good post! I'll let others ask you questions, if they want, since I've spent too long on this and need to finish some other things up before sleeping, like a vote. As such...

@ Reads and would-vote-fors

Since this is probably my last post before bed... I am a bit stumped.

First thing's first: I want to hear more from Rodea when you feel better and get the chance (and I hope you recover soon!). Despite my bravado about lynching for inactivity, I also don't like knocking out new players right away, and so I'm disinclined to vote for Rodea, kiku, and Aistaraina at least for now--though the latter two have replied in a satisfactory fashion, I think!

There are quite a few people vouching for their significant others--which, to be fair, I sort of did as well. The tricky part is it's tough to really test these reasons other than "just trust me", which leaves voting in a pickle. In particular, nautilus seems to trust Ninfia as far as game-start town is concerned, Kiyoko and Seraph seem to vouch for one another regarding the other not being vanilla (if the mafia recruitee would be vanilla), and I am disinclined to vote for Alice. Meanwhile, plotstickers may know of Ezreal's role (and it looks favorable, since she didn't go after him?), T3tsuya is building an empire, and I think Kotakia and Cure either trust each other or just have the hots for one another, regardless of relationship constraints. And so on and so forth.

Hm.

If I had to narrow it down, this phase I'd most like to vote for...
Tiki the Troll
Mr. Alice
Chinomi
Sammiya
Plotstickers
Cure

There are some other players I'm curious about, but I think I can wait on those for a future phase. I also think there's some merit to there being at least one Mafia-Mafia relationship hidden in the established ones, and while some players haven't come forward with some recent confessions (?), I feel like of this list...

Luxaria/Alice
eleni/Blaire
high seraph/Kiyoko
nautilus/Ninfia
chinomi/Ezreal
Kotakia/T3tsuya
Cure/Sammiya
deo/plotstickers

The bolded pairings are the ones I'd be most suspicious of out of the set. That said, I think with the stun on eleni and her and Blaire's compliance, plus nautilus and Ninfia being rather pro-town, that leaves Cure/Sammiya are the pairing I'd most like to investigate.

Oh, gosh, these games are so weird without a five-minute-into-the-phase alcasync vote to guide us.

Of the six I listed, I would most like to hear from Tiki (and I believe a few others, notably nautilus and Alice mentioned his name, too), Cure, plotstickers, and Sammiya. The latter two seem to have indicated they would be able to respond later in the day, while Cure said she was helping a friend move. The former... I always have trouble reading him, but it's interesting when he's been mostly RPing and not really committing to much. Plus, he did seem to indicate a relationship with Jaiser, which would fit the Mafia-Mafia pairing criteria. By the way, did he ever say why he entered a relationship with T3tsuya and then promptly dropped it? I think he did, but I don't want to dig through everything right this moment. ;w;

One final thing: if Sammiya and Rasei have a special sibling relationship ordeal going on, the consensus has indicated that it's likely at least one of them is not mafia, else it would be moot--unless they're lying, of course. Discussion seems to favor Rasei being fanfiction-san, and that she is either town or neutral. This adds some weight to me wanting to test Sammiya, since it'd test both her and Rasei, plus her and Cure.

Or, I could just go with the tried and true vote from my last like four games and send my first lynch on dranda--

Vote: Sammiya for the reasons outlined above. Sorry, I know your internet has been spotty and you plan to reply later ;w; but I think my reasoning makes sense. Note that if she has a good case, I'd swap to one of the other five on that list, unless something comes up while I rest.

/sleep.