[Snowball Bash Mafia] [Mafia Wins]

tbh i don't think there are any doctors in this game, bc i think at some point lux described it as "a game where everyone is their own doctor" or something?? I'm sure I saw that at some point. And the snow mechanic really does allow ppl to be their own doctors. I guess the reason why Sammie is still alive is because either the mafia expected Sammie to be under protection OR because they hadn't really thought about the fact this game might not even have doctors.

Speaking of snow, I brought up a few REALLY WEIRD things about Kiyoko's death the phase after she died, but everyone just ignored me............

Like, I pointed out the fact that the mafia stunner does not knock any snow off your fort. (As a matter of fact, Sammie's stun does not knock your snow off either). Moreover, Kiyoko's role allowed her to hide away from the ongoing snowball fight an X amount of times. She said from the beginning that she would use her ability until it was exhausted, since she is pretty popular around this neighborhood, and boys like throwing snowballs at her... Even so, she died on N1.

I think it should be obvious that it was a NK. However, even if there was something going on with Kiyoko that didn't allow her to use her role (like, if her role could only be used once every other phase), and unless she was HEAVILY fiddled with during her short life by roles that can steal snow (looks at drandahl), she should still have had enough snow to survive a nk. The exact numbers are cloudy for me since it's been a few phases since she died, but feel free to look through my posts until you find the post that you originally ignored >:B

Ninfia quoted a rule that I didn't remember, so it's possible, I guess, that the mafia consumed 2 of their own snow in order to get a Lv. 4 Snowball and take Kiyoko out of the game. I don't recall if that would be enough to kill her, but I'm fairly certain that she had 5 snow by that point (unless, again, someone had been messing with her fort).

I'm gonna do a little character analysis next.

Rasei - is my younger sister. Has claimed to be able to write in her journal and, as a result, receive hints about a player's role. Has also claimed that she will be unlynchable next day phase, as a side-effect from having made her journal entries public. Her claims have been proved by the journals she posted, which have Luxaria's writing style imo. Rasei has been sending very mixed signals throughout the game, but right now I'm really unsure. She has been advocating for people to "not touch [her] siblings", which includes me, and that wouldn't make much sense if she was mafia. Actually a lot of tings don't make sense if you think Rasei is mafia. And a lot of things don't make sense if you think she is town. What the hell Rasei? ? ? Ninfia suggested that it seems unbalanced that the role cop and the alignment cop were both on town's side... but Raie said she was a 1x alignment cop, and only as a minor effect of her role. So it's not that strange?? I hate myself for saying this but, atm, I think Rasei is town. Additonally, I think at least one out of the youngest, the middle and the oldest siblings must be mafia. Apparently, it's the youngest -- the only sibling who has not yet come forward to help Rasei on her project. I expected if not drandahl, someone would react to my "how old are you" question, but it didn't happen.

drandahl - is not my brother. Has claimed to be able to make PM alliances with his friends, and he can keep gathering friends as the game evolves. Can also steal snow from other players's forts. His claim has been backed by Sammie, who's his friend (smh sammie), and Rasei, who "investigated" him on N1, and partially by Tiki, who had his snow stolen on N1. Right now I'm leaning towards considering drandahl town, but PM alliance powers can go both ways; stealing snow, on the other hand, seems really scummy, especially considering more snow = stronger NKs. He has also been sending mixed signals throughout the game. Right now, I think drandahl is mafia.

Cure - 1x alignment cop, got Tiki lynched, is def town. Keep doing your thing.

Ninfia - we don't know anything about ninfia, except that she has granted extra snow for apparently everyone this phase... which seems very town aligned!!! I can confirm that I got extra snow this phae. She voted Tiki early, which indicates she is town. On D1, Kiyoko seemed suspicious of her for nautilus's death. She could be mafia, but she probably isn't. she's also my best friend....... ;w;

Mr. Alice - has been pointing at drandahl most of the time. I think the best way to form an opinion about Blaire is to lynch drandahl, at this point -- if he flips mafia, she's town, and vice versa. I hope Blaire isn't mafia, but she might be.

Sammiya - has claimed to be the town stunner, and it's pretty obvious that she is, because she has not been counterclaimed. Apparently can also run around the neighborhood knocking some snow off people's forts and maybe peeing on them. Drandahl trusts her and is her best friend (smh sammie!!!!!!!). Anyway, Sammie is probably town.

high seraph - and then there's me.... the oldest sibling... I'm going to claim because I think I have high chances of being killed this phase, since Tiki threw his bomb at me, shaking my defenses. If there ARE any doctors around... I would appreciate protection!!! I have been stunned twice during the game, which means I didn't send the NK for the last two phases. This is p indicative that I'm town because there are only 3 mafia, and, if I was mafia, I would probably send the stun on N1, since I would not normally expect to be stunned TWICE IN A ROW. Also, Tiki attacked me before he died, so that should be plenty of evidence that I'm not mafia. Rasei is also saying she was attacked but it was ME. Since I might die, I'll say that my role has very little immediate use, and has a light impact on lynches. I have a second power that relates to snow, but I haven't used it all game (GUESS WHY? BECAUSE I W AS STUNNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

SO WHO IS THE MAFIA???

Either Blaire or drandahl is mafia, and I'd rather lynch drandahl first. It's possible that they're both mafia, but I think it's very unlikely. If you followed my post, you see that I think everyone else... is town. I realize it doesn't make sense because there's 1 more mafia, but atm I can't tell who that last person could be. My top suspect should be Rasei, but even if she has been sending me mixed signals, she has also brought for strong evidence and her behavior in thread doesn't seem to make sense, if you think she's mafia. The next one on my list, Ninfia, has been discreet about her role, but what we do know (sharing snow with everyone) seems VERY town-aligned. The last person is Sammie, who has claimed town stunner and has never been counterclaimed???? so whO IS THE MAFIA???? I DON"T KNOW?????? WHAT DO YOu WANT FROM ME

i'm so sorry for this post

ninja'd by drandahl...... could you, like, completely rephrase your post please??? I understood nothing about it???? like:

1) why do you think cure would know tiki was a bomb
2) what do you mean by "went poorly"? didn't we lynch tiki??? isn't he dead and my fort destroyed?????
3) no one was really concerned about the # of votes on tiki so why should cure?

i'm also so sorry for this paegtop

I think drandahl meant went poorly for the mafia since Tiki-bomb didn't take anyone out. That's what I translated it to mean.

My head is hurting from all of this, omg.

drandahl wrote:Cure, I side-eye most people while also front-eyeing them.

The only concern I'd have with you right now is that of all mafia you targeted, you targeted what I assume is their lynch bomb. That concern is more or less mitigated when I consider how poorly that worked out. Still your response of confusion afterwords and your lack of concern around the number of votes on Tiki does raise some small red flags in my head. Not that that's bringing me to suspect you enough to consider you a good lynch target though.

Yes, I was curious if Rasei had changed her mind given new the info.

Why would I, as mafia, actively bus one of my TWO teammates (who wasn't actually getting too much suspicion cast on him) from as early as D1, heavily tunnel him on D2 in order to get him lynched, when I could have tried to get someone else lynched which wouldn't have been hard. Like... there's 0 reason for me to straight up full bus my teammate like that. That's so silly.

You have reasoned that "Oh! Tiki had a revenge/bomb kill, so bussing Tiki to kill someone else makes sense!" Except not really. Town and mafia aren't a 1:1 ratio, so a mafia member is more valuable than a random townie. Also it didn't even work. :\

It'd make no sense for me to be mafia at this point unless you think I'm pulling some Emperor Palpatine levels of trickery, but idk I personally prefer less risky gambits, and anything involving bussing a teammate with no real suspicion on them is hella risky.

tbh i still think you're mafia The fact that you IMMEDIATELY knew that tiki was a bomb, while I was reluctant and confused (because I had no clue what was going on and the thought of him being a bomb didn't cross my mind at all) is raising some flags in MY mind

Thanks, Lucas. Rephrasing my post here, then looking back to find your Kiyo-death-post that I missed responding to.

"""
Cure, the only worry I'd have with you right now is that of all people you could have alignment-investigated you happened to have picked the mafia that was probably most dangerous to lynch. Of course, this could totally be coincidence. Also no town actually died, so if it was a maf plan to trigger a bomb, it wasn't completely a successful one (unless I'm missing something).

Otherwise, your response of confusion when tiki exploded and your lack of concern around the number of votes on Tiki does raise some small red flags in my head. The situation seemed odd to me at least, since under normal circumstances I would expect mafia to take advantage of the situation and at least push harder on another lynch candidate (I guess there was some of this).

Not that any of this is bringing me to suspect you enough to consider you a good lynch target though.
"""

Also to respond to your questions directly,
1) why do you think cure would know tiki was a bomb
--I didn't think she would know, unless Cure is maf, but I thought the situation seemed weird enough to raise some red flags for the average town observer.
2) what do you mean by "went poorly"? didn't we lynch tiki??? isn't he dead and my fort destroyed?????
--Sorry. Went poorly for maf, if it was a gambit to force a triggering of a Tikibomb. In the end, nobody died from it other than Tiki. Yeah, your fort is harmed, but you're still alive.
3) no one was really concerned about the # of votes on tiki so why should cure?
--I was concerned. Maybe I'm paranoid and am assuming everyone else is.


EDIT: snaked by Cure. Addressing her points in another post.

Yes. It's a coincidence. I said it was an ALIGNMENT investigation, not a ROLE investigation. Also, until you guys spelled it out after the phase was over, I had no clue what the flip you guys were talking about with regards to a bomb. Your IMMEDIATE freak out and sudden swapping of votes reads suspiciously like your attempted self-vote gambit in twitch plays mafia. In which you were mafia. On that note, Blaire abandoned ship at the exact same second, too.

also did you even read my post above yours? it addresses like every concern you're making.

Namely that: MAFIA INTENTIONALLY BUSSING THE MAFIA BOMB MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE BECAUSE YOU'RE LOSING ONE MAFIA AND ONE TOWN. AND ONE MAFIA MEMBER IS WORTH MORE THAN ONE TOWN MEMBER. That is an objectively stupid decision for mafia to make via bussing.

even if drandahl flips town, i still think i had some legit concerns on why i think he's maf, WHICH NEVER ACTUALLY HAPPENS, so if i'm wrong, then welp, i wouldn't beat myself up over it because again, i think my concerns were founded

if no one else thinks he is though, i won't push it, because fine, w/e i'm pretty go with the flow in terms of voting anyway, even though i'm gonna be a little :S at everyone

in terms of mechanics stuff....i thought i had it down, but as soon as the action started happening, i realized that maybe i didn't have it as down as i thought, so....

and wait, the extra snow is a thing?? wtf....ok i need to review this snow business, cuz i might be unduly missing some?? one???

???????????????????????

Cure wrote:On that note, Blaire abandoned ship at the exact same second, too.

Yeah sorry about that. :S Again, I thought friendship doc=mafia doc, but apparently it's a real thing??? ???? It wouldn't have made a difference at that point, but like I said, achievement. -xbox achievement sound-

IT'S EMBARRASSING OK PLEASE DON'T LOOK AT ME

smh blaire-chan smh you can't have hamburgers with me for a whole week

you'd never invite me out for hamburgers anyway ; ~ ;

Looking at Lucas and Rasei's posts it appears that there's three siblings. I agree that one of them is probably mafia. Which one remains to be seen (one hasn't been claimed??), but I doubt it's Lucas. He's been very helpful and also he didn't think I was still scummy after I lead the Tiki bandwagon all the way from nowheresville to lynch city so I'm not grumpy at him 8((!!!

Cure wrote:Yes. It's a coincidence. I said it was an ALIGNMENT investigation, not a ROLE investigation. Also, until you guys spelled it out after the phase was over, I had no clue what the flip you guys were talking about with regards to a bomb.

I'll believe this. But please don't mistake my calling these points out as "drandahl thinks Raie is 100% mafia" either.

Cure wrote:Your IMMEDIATE freak out and sudden swapping of votes reads suspiciously like your attempted self-vote gambit in twitch plays mafia. In which you were mafia. On that note, Blaire abandoned ship at the exact same second, too.

Sammiya can comment on whether I suggested she also take precaution in the friendship doc, for what's that worth. But I do understand your point. I'm glad I didn't switch to No Vote, because that would have looked much worse.

This is also similar to my last-minute action when I was particularly charged as town in Psycho Pass mafia, for the record.

Cure wrote:
also did you even read my post above yours? it addresses like every concern you're making.

Sorry about this. I wanted to finish my thoughts before moving on to your comments, but I should have said that before posting.

Cure wrote:
Namely that: MAFIA INTENTIONALLY BUSSING THE MAFIA BOMB MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE BECAUSE YOU'RE LOSING ONE MAFIA AND ONE TOWN. AND ONE MAFIA MEMBER IS WORTH MORE THAN ONE TOWN MEMBER. That is an objectively stupid decision for mafia to make via bussing.

True, though we noticed two people with lost snow. I wouldn't be surprised if the role "scaled with number of voters" or something silly like that. I'm just covering my bases here. I do trust you, Raie.


ALSO, re: three siblings. One could be Naut?

Mr. Alice wrote:you'd never invite me out for hamburgers anyway ; ~ ;

I'l make you hamburgers, Blaire.

drandahl wrote:ALSO, re: three siblings. One could be Naut?

I think it was implied that X Sibling is literally the role name. Nautilus's role was revealed to be Precious.

Can Lucas and/or Rasei confirm?


Sammie isn't 100% town either, so, while I do think she's town for now, I'm not going to take her word as gospel quite yet. especially as our numbers start dwindling.


At this moment I think Drandahl is our best candidate for a lynch tomorrow, tbh.

blaire we don't get achievements from minigames btw???

About the 3 siblings thing, Rasei has claimed to be "the middle sister", while I'm "the oldest sibling". No one has claimed to be the youngest sibling yet, but mom already told me they're getting spanked as soon as they walk through the front door.

Lucas, I think this is one of your posts that has a lot of good points: https://crywolf.rpg-board.net/t163p255-snowball-bash-mafia-night-two#10702

I think I missed responding to it before, sorry. I was on in bursts the other day.