Democratic Oath [MAFIA WIN]

Luxaria wrote:
@ Rasei: You might have said this before but, again, too tired to dig. Was there a particular reason you favored no lynch?

Rasei had a feeling that today was way to quiet, and there is a bear on it's way. Thinking about Doctor Lux's question, Rasei had changed her vote to no lynch was because at the time she didn't like the two that were up to vote. She could have switched the vote to Doctor Lux then and made it a tie. She could have voted for Doctor Tiki, but she didn't want to vote against someone that is fun to rp with. Her first vote was because she rolled a die.

Right now there is only one person that Rasei will trust to be town and that is herself. (and Madao!Tiki)

Edit: Got snaked by Doctor Lux. Rasei feels very very confused.

Edit2:

What a Madao looks like:

@ Rasei:

When you voted on Tet, you said "you would explain later." The explanation in question is "I rolled a die". Why couldn't you have just said that then?

You voted no lynch after saying Ninfia had a good point. Ninfia's post merely commenting on being surprised we weren't no lynching. Was that the point you were referencing?

You said you had a theory on who was mafia that you'd post later. Was that theory and vote on me the previously alluded theory?

Following "didn't like the two votes D1", was the NL decision based on that, or some other factor like Ninfia's previously mentioned "point"?

Personally, I dislike no lynching because it is too passive, and in a game like this without a guarantee of a protect we'd still be in the MYLO situation, granted it'd be more lenient since there is the chance of a protect. But basically, if we NL'd D1, today, D2, we'd just be up 4:2 with less information than before.

@ Ninfia:

You voted drandahl off of your gut. What seems off about him? Is it completely a gut read?

So you feel most confident in saying drandahl/Blaire are the two mafia, to double-check? What gives you a town read on myself and Rasei, if you can specify it?

@ Mr. Alice:

You picked Rasei or Ninfia off of your gut. Considering their votes and posts, any preference? If you had to vote one out this phase, which would it be?

@ drandahl:

I mostly addressed your concerns directed my way in my last post. I want to point out, also, that I find your mention of me "feeling strongly enough" to change my vote to you as weirdly characterized. In my previous post I highlighted my train of thought and how my natural conclusion was to view yourself and Rasei as most likely to deliver economical NKs (as in, take out someone aggressive and talkative, but also slightly less likely to receive a vote of protect; most likely, Cure just got a vote from Tet. Ninfia or myself might be the others to vote to protect her.).

Is there anything that makes you think myself and Ninfia are particular mafia, or rather, what makes me more mafia than her? Is it solely down to the votes of the previous phase, in addition to my vote swapping which I tried to explain?

If you're town, I would really like for you to answer as best you can in the remaining 30 minutes because if so, we're both town up for a tied lynch and we'll lose.

Posting while I process something else.

First, since we're losing time here.

unvote

I am town. If I were mafia, I would have no reason to pull my vote, unless Lux was also mafia. I voted Lux, and I maintained the potential of killing her the first round, so I hope at least it's clear that the only way we're both mafia is if we constructed some elaborate and overly risky plan in advance.

I don't know who to vote right now. Lux has comfortably addressed my concerns around her, so I'm drawn back to a neutral position on her. I would like to hear more from Ninfia.



I haven't noticed too much odd behavior from people in general this game, outside of the comments on Lux (which again, she's addressed).

For this reason, I'm going to run with the idea that there's only one non-Blaire mafia. vote: Blaire

Comfortable changing my stance, as always, so please speak up folks. Would like to hear Ninfia's response to Lux's questions.

Okay, for my protect N0 I tried to calculate the most likely targets, and then the most likely candidate everyone would vote for, and then try to factor in how this would affect everyone's votes and target selection. At that point it gets exceptionally WIFOM, but I submitted a protect on a 50/50 between Ninfia and Cure and chose Ninfia. My analysis was loosely:

Tet: Would protect Cure. Uncertain on NK, but not likely to NK Cure and probably myself as well.

Cure: Would protect Tet. Uncertain on NK, but probably not NK Tet, Ninfia, and maybe myself. Also would probably keep drandahl alive.

Ninfia: Would protect Cure or Lux. Uncertain on NK, but probably unlikely to NK Rasei, Blaire, or drandahl.

drandahl: Would protect one of Tet, Cure, or Lux. Would NK one of those three as well.

Tiki: Would protect Lux, Ninfia, or drandahl, with a possible option of Rasei. Might not NK Cure right away, but probably Tet or Lux.

Rasei: Would protect Lux. Would NK one of Cure, Tet, or Lux.

Blaire: No one knows. I had the most difficult plotting her out.

So given all of this, I wasn't sure whether to anticipate around these reads on people or go for something else.

So Cure got NKed. If mafia were killing her, they'd only do so expecting someone else to get the majority protects. The only way Cure would get majority is if myself, Tet, and Ninfia all voted for her. I'm town but voted Ninfia, Tet was town and probably voted Cure, which leaves Ninfia. I could see Ninfia submitting a NK on Cure expecting her to not get the protect since she'd be one of the few to vote to protect her. This also depends on a read of there not being only two on another target (assuming I'd protect Cure).

I could also see Ninfia doing this considering I've previously displayed bias to protect Tet in other games of this nature. However, this is still making a large assumption. That said, if mafia did not have Ninfia, they would be hedging their bets against Ninfia, Tet, and Lux not submitting a protect on Cure (and favoring between the three of them, which wouldn't happen with Tet). So then they would have to get reads on the other players to determine which player would most likely receive the protect.

Again, drandahl and Rasei strike me as the most economical NKers along with Ninfia. I have less of a strong read on Blaire (and even Tiki) since I feel it depends on their mafia partners.

So then there were lynch votes. Hmm.

T3tsuya v. Luxaria
Luxaria v. Ninfia SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT
Luxaria v. drandahl SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT
Luxaria v. Mr. Alice SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT
Tiki The Troll v. Luxaria
Mr. Alice v. Rasei
Luxaria v. Tiki The Troll
Rasei v. T3tsuya SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT
drandahl v. Tiki The Troll SETTLED OUTSIDE OF COURT
Ninfia v. Tiki The Troll
Rasei v. no lynch
drandahl v. Mr. Alice

Mafia would know it was between myself and Tiki, two town. Rasei did a vote on Tet, but why not swap to one of the two to be more decisive on getting a town out. drandahl went Mr. Alice to encourage a 50/50. Blaire kind of voted Rasei before it came down to me vs Tiki, and then she never changed, so I don't know how to process that.

Then Tet dies. He's only likely to get protects from Cure, dead, and myself. So what mafia combination would outweigh the possible protects on him? Because there's the chance I'd protect him, and then you're hoping the remaining are scattered enough to not hit a majority of 2.

Thinking...

Reading drandahl's replies.

Hm. Pulling your vote is interesting to me since you've done it both phases on a town, when, as mafia, you'd know they're town. You're also doing it when you are risking yourself being lynched. As mafia, you're giving up the 50/50 since you have no guarantee I won't swap, unless you last minute vote me again.

50/50 favors mafia since they have a 50% chance of winning, 50% chance of just losing one mafia and being in MYLO again the next phase iirc.

Could be a huge gambit. Not sure. Inclined to think otherwise.

Why aren't you voting Ninfia if you think one of myself or Ninfia are mafia?

I'm beginning to think Ninfia has a relatively high chance of being mafia according to the numbers of probable protects, the NKs, and her votes, but the first is a bit of a toss-up in terms of accuracy.

"Why aren't you voting Ninfia if you think one of myself or Ninfia are mafia?"

Because you've assuaged my concerns on you. I'm still not sure what to think of Ninfia, but everyone seems to be acting a little too normal for me to think that two vocal players are mafia.

So my current and strongest line of reasoning is that Blaire is mafia.

Rasei bits her lip, then unvote Lux. Thing is Rasei had forgotten that no lynch was a possiblity in this game. Her thoughts were that Lux and either T3t or Blaire were the mafia. She doesn't have a huge scrum read on Dran or Ninfia right now. But if she doesn't vote right then what will happen?

The pulling of your vote is very perplexing to me because if nothing changes (which it could, and I doubt you'd avoid swapping it to me out of principle), then you would be lynched. If you're town you know you're town, whereas I am uncertain. That said I do think you'd probably go for the desperation save on yourself.

What makes you suspect Blaire the most? By virtue of both myself and Rasei sounding town? Which leaves Ninfia, who you were already suspicious of prior and even started a lynch on you.

I'm getting flashbacks

Unvote

But here's the problem, if Rasei has unvoted, that means the lynch is auto-drandahl or now Mr. Alice. Also, why as a town do you no vote at this juncture if MYLO leaves to mafia dying? Do you think drandahl is mafia?

Uhh.

Shit we're running low on time.

Vote: Ninfia

Or it could be Blaire. I don't know. Or is it Rasei or drandahl, but I feel more confident on them being town??

Is it a three way tie now? THis is a bad thing.

drandahl/rasei
drandahl/blaire
drandahl/ninfia

rasei/blaire
rasei/ninfia

blaire/ninfia

These are the possibilities. drandahl unvoted me when he could effectively guarantee a win. Uhhh. Rasei then followed suit. Werid mafia gambit if they were both mafia??

drandahl/Blaire, idk, same thing with drandahl. And for drandahl/Ninfia, unless Ninfia was bussing her teammate, but even then why do that in this game when town MYLO this phase.

Rasei/Blaire, if Blaire just got a vote, why unvote from one of the two people that could get lynched instead of her, uh.

Rasei/Ninfia, I guess the same thing. idk.

Blaire/Ninfia, I could see this as being probable, but I don't know because they're both my doki dokis.