Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

so 5/6 (83%) chance of being benched, if the second passer is not a spiker themselves (92% if they are). this is actually the real risk at passing to safe numbers - HOWEVER

mafia serves to usernames, not numbers. ball is passed twice before it is spiked.
unless the mafia figures out/knows which player is which number (or at least for the safe number players), AND the safe number players don't pass to other safe number players, there's a decent chance that the safe player won't be the last - so we won't be putting more risk on them by passing to them, but rather less.

this is of course all just hypothetical and plain odds and chance percentages (which can be defied as we have seen by last night's spike against all odds).

eta: and these odds will also change as soon as someone is benched, as they depend on the total number of players.

OK hELLO OHAYO TEAM!

You are all probably trying to intimidate me into leaving the team with all your complicated probabilities, but listen up, I'm not going anywhere ok, I am DETERMINED to see some locker room action in here. So yeah I'm gonna skip your probabilities because they're probably on point and also too hard for me to handle ok.

To recap:

• Kiyoko passed to #9
  
• Luxaria passed to #8
  
• Rasei passed to #10
  

These are all the possible scenarios from last phase, considering the claims made so far:

Spoiler:

For either one of these scenarios to work, all three of Lux, Kiyo and Rasei have to be town, which I don't have a problem believing atm. From there, maybe we can make a few assumptions... It's impossible to determine the Jersey # of the initial target (basically because we can't even determine who the initial target was... for now, anyway). But if we think about the logic between the NK shot, it's... probably safe to say that the mafia has very little control over who gets the ball in the end, i.e. they can't really choose who gets benched. But they'd probably still try to maintain as much control as they could, right?

I think in a game as random as this, the mafia would prioritize their "targets" by threat level. So if they wanted to bench Kiyo, for example, who is definitely totally a threat, they wouldn't serve the ball directly to her... Unless they expected the ball to go [Kiyo -> 9 -> Kiyo], but to rely on a slim possibility like that is inSANE. Bottom line here is, I think the ball was likely served to Rasei, who then passed it forward, since Rasei isn't usually a very aggressive player. If this is true, it narrows down Jersey #s and allows us to plan our next passes a little better (altho coach won't actually let us plan this in detail since she wants everyone to have a chance of pass the ball... just... don't pass it to me ok i'm very useless and will probably fumble the ball ok).

So yeah, considering the "Rasei was the NK" scenario, Lux is either #10 or #9, while Kiyo is either #10 or #8... iM NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW USEFULL THIS INFORMATION IS tbh, and I'm very scared that making this public knowledge might work to the mafia's favor, but? ?? I don't see how? they could use this information since they don't even target Jersey #s... idk do whatever you want with this spec guys lmao I already know where my balls are going next phase ;-))))))))

(omg that sounded more lewd than i wanted it to. great.)

Anyway, moving onto less mathematical grounds, I'm a little bothered by Aeiou's no lynch vote because aside from pass-claims, I don't see how we'll be getting much information in this game and, in an all-vanilla game like this, lynching is the only way we can actually get mafia benched... But at the same time, I'm very insecure about voting myself this phase since I'm not having much luck drawing charts or analyzing posts

atm I'm most suspicious of Cure... It's mostly just vibes, I can't really put my finger on what is suspicious here, she's just kind of hard to read...

Spoiler:

ninja'd by ezz who brings this

ezzelin wrote:unless the mafia figures out/knows which player is which number (or at least for the safe number players), AND the safe number players don't pass to other safe number players, there's a decent chance that the safe player won't be the last - so we won't be putting more risk on them by passing to them, but rather less.

UM M  I DONt understand... any of this....... could you, like...

rephrase it......... or illustrate it somehow... ms paint is ok....... help

high seraph wrote:So if they wanted to bench Kiyo, for example, who is definitely totally a threat, they wouldn't serve the ball directly to her... Unless they expected the ball to go [Kiyo -> 9 -> Kiyo], but to rely on a slim possibility like that is inSANE.

actually, it's not a slim possibility at all; kiyo would have technically the same odds as anyone else being passed to from player #9, and by picking her as the initial target they would make sure she cannot be the second passer, nullifying the possibility of her being entirely excluded out of the third player possibilities.

so I think it'd perfectly possible and rather likely for the first person in the chain, whoever they were, to have been the original nk target.
because a) it would make sure they're not player #2 should the chain go through,
and b) they'd still have the chance of being benched for passing to maf.

My instincts are telling me something is off about ezzelin. I kind of want to follow Kiyo's vote, but idk if I want the responsibility of possibly causing a mislynch. Where is Kiyo I actually trust her this game and I want her input.

Also, there's like a 30% chance for the original target to immediately pass to mafia and di-- get benched, and I wouldn't be surprised if mafia banks on that chance when they send in NKs. For this reason, I don't want to rule out Kiyo being the initial NK target.

I am very not inclined to vote Raie at all. Even if Raie were hypothetically mafia, she's offered more pro-town spec at this point than over half of thread.

unvote, vote: drandahl

again, as an activity vote because ezz posted. I just woke up and am too tired to really offer anything, but I'mma get some caffeine and reread thread when I feel more awake. I wouldn't be against switching my vote back to ezz if Raie feels strongly enough about her suspicions.

Lucas's chart is basically 100% what I was thinking, only he illustrated it much nicer. ty lucas, you are the chartmaster.

Will be back with coffee and a list of thoughts on everyone except drandahl who is a loser who never posts in thread unless he's mafia and then wonders why everyone is suspicious of him when he starts posting in thread.

OH THERE'S KIYO <333

... I feel like the most likely chain progressions were 

?? -> 10 -> 9 -> 8, 
or
 ?? -> 8 -> 9 -> 10

simply because there's a high chance of someone just passing the ball to the next highest/lowest number in sequence. Idk if this is ACTUALLY what happened, but given the possible scenarios, #9 is probably the safest of the three numbers to pass to.

There is also a very real (and not highly unlikely) possibility that all three numbers are town.

high seraph wrote:ninja'd by ezz who brings this

ezzelin wrote:unless the mafia figures out/knows which player is which number (or at least for the safe number players), AND the safe number players don't pass to other safe number players, there's a decent chance that the safe player won't be the last - so we won't be putting more risk on them by passing to them, but rather less.

UM M  I DONt understand... any of this....... could you, like...

rephrase it......... or illustrate it somehow... ms paint is ok....... help

putting this in a separate post because of relevance.

I had a huge post written in response to this, but scratch that actually.

the maf know who they targeted last night out of our three passers, which renders the whole odds and chances pointless, because while they don't know jersey numbers, they know which two players are amongst them.
which means they may very well, and likely will, serve to a safe number player.
which means if said safe player manages to pass to someone, and they pass back to a safe number player, we're effectively screwing them over.
(M (serve) -> S1 (pass) -> P1 (pass) -> S2 (spike or benched))

so no, scratch that, my bad.

(however, it's not the pass rates that screw them over, but the fact that there's a high chance that if the first pass goes through safely, a safe player will be the third player, who has the highest risk of being benched.)

Luxaria - Cannot be 8, possibly 9/10
Kiyo - Cannot be 9, possibly 8/10
Rasei - Cannot be 10, Possibly 8/9

Also, given the assumption that 9 is the safest person to target since it's in the middle of either sequence, it's also not possible for Kiyo to be #9... and out of the three, I'd like to accidentally kill Kiyo the least (s-sorry Lux and Rasei).

Here's the player list in descending order from least to most suspicious (in my opinion). The bolded players are ones I will not vote for, and the ones in italics I will not vote for unless given a very good reason.

► Cure
► Kiyoko
► Luxaria
► Rasei
► High Seraph
► Cur3/T3tsuya
► Sammiya
► Entelechy
► Aeiou
► Chinomi
► ezzelin
► Tiki The Troll
► Drandahl
► No Lynch

I don't really know how I feel about the people spitting out probability percentages. As far as speculation goes, I think posts that tend to the side of WELL HERE'S ALL THESE COMPLICATED AND MOSTLY USELESS PERCENTAGES THAT AREN'T REALLY APPLICABLE TO ACTUALLY PLAYING THE GAME are the most likely spec posts for mafia members to make, because they seem quite helpful without actually giving anything away. This is primarily why I'm suspicious of ezzelin (also she is posting pretty differently from gakuen where she was extremely quiet, and now she's posting a lot of decent-length posts right out of the gate and it's captured my attention). This also extends to Entelechy a little bit, but I don't know how they play at all so I'm a little less sure on that front.

Kiyo tier tl;dr coming through, skip to bottom for who I'm thinking of voting

Claimed pass, likely town
► Kiyoko -> #9
► Luxaria -> #8
► Rasei -> #10

Notes on other people
► Cure
Has posted a lot of pro-town spec and is actively scumhunting, inclined to believe Raie is town for now.

► Entelechy
Doin’ math and stuff. New player, not inclined to vote just on that alone, but since I can’t read Entelechy due to my not knowing them, and they’re actively contributing, I see no reason to vote them anyway.

► Tiki The Troll
Made literally a 9 word post saying he’s busy and did not touch the ball and that’s it

► Cur3/T3tsuya
Claimed pass to #5, mostly skimmed thread

► High Seraph
Made a nice chart, it is very detailed. Offering enough spec that I am not inclined to vote Lucas, and also these are very nice charts.

► Sammiya
Made one post saying she believed the claims and pointed out that one of Kiyoko, Luxaria and Rasei is the NK target.

► Aeiou
Voted NL, apparently having internet troubles. The NL is fishy but it was also the first vote and I’m wondering if maf would throw out a first NL like that. That was the vdex meta though so. /shrug

► Chinomi
Made a post saying she’s tired and can’t contribute atm

► ezzelin
Made a very long percentage post that’s exactly in line with the rambly smaller post I made on the same point. Raie seems to be side-eyeing ezz but I’m not inclined to vote ezz right now due to sheer levels of contribution.

► Drandahl
MIA AGAIN CLEARLY MAF WHERE IS THIS LOSER JERK

---

Thoughts on maf behavior

While it's completely likely that maf is in thread making probability calculations with the rest of us, I am still largely inclined to vote the people who have flat-out avoided speculation entirely.

Since we're all equal vanillaball players role-wise, I kind of value the people willing to take the time to write giant walls of text over the people who came in, dropped a sentence, and left. I get that people are busy and I don't want to be too hard on that but at the same time, like, we gotta choose someone to vote.

Most inclined to vote

Chinomi - for doing the usual "lol hi bye" that she always does regardless of alignment but still, hasn't contributed much

Tiki - for literally posting "did not pass bye" and nothing else (although he said that he's busy)

Aeiou - for the NL vote, but also the way Aeiou dismissed Entelechy's probabilities with this post:

Aeiou wrote:Wow numbers are hard enough to comprehend, now we are throwing in percentages! But I think things have been revised and we wont even know if we received or passed a ball anymore? so its sort of irelevant

which caught my eye because idk man any spec is good spec and worth considering. Aeiou is apparently having internet troubles though so.

Sammiya - for... also not really being around much but I'm not actually that suspicious of Sammie, since she's always a bit quiet. That said, Sammie's won a lot of games by coasting as maf, so I wanted to draw a little bit of attention her way.

@Cure
I'm posting more because I've returned home, and I actually am present for a large part of the day as opposed to my previous hour or maybe two after grandma went to sleep for the last two weeks.

and I'm posting percentages because some have been posted by entelechy which weren't entirely accurate, and math is My Thing. and it actually would have been helpful, if it wasn't for the thing I mentioned in my last post, which I haven't actually realised until now cause I got immersed in math. because math is My Thing.

Okay that is actually good to know (the math being your thing), you can mentally shuffle yourself a few steps towards the less-grimy top of my list.

Edit: I'm going to do this for now. Vote: Aeiou

Also I posted my post before reading Raie's specpost but @Raie I agree with the "it's easy for maf to make comments on statistics in order to look like they're participating while they're actually not"

but at the same time I'd rather keep a contributing maf than an inactive town because a contributing maf at least gives us info to work with that we can potentially use later to figure out that they're maf.

That said, don't let my opinions change yours because I think having different viewpoints is important and my spec is more based on "let's get rid of players who are posting the least amount of spec" rather than "let's get rid of the suspicious-sounding players."

e: Keeping my vote on drandahl til he posts (and if he never posts I really don't mind lynching him for inactivity so the vote's probably gonna stay unless anything comes up) but I approve of the Aeiou vote

MAKES YET ANOTHER POST TO SAY, it's a shame that we won't have as much information moving forward, but it makes sense why we won't be getting PMs anymore. Potentially clearing up to three townies in a single night makes process of elimination pretty rough for the mafia.

I think we still might be able to deduce numbers with a LOT of cross-referencing if people claim who they were going to pass to, however.

I have a meeting I need to run to but I can make a pass claims chart when I get back, unless someone else makes one first.