Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

I passed to 4.

Okay. Few orders of business.

1) I spent 13 hours today cooking, hosting, and cleaning. I am impressed with myself. There will be pictures of cake, but I have higher priorities at the moment.

2) I am allowed to say that someone has said in the past that they passed to my number. I am not allowed to say which night or which number, and I had to wait till day phase to say this.

3) I passed to Number 3.

4) I am going to make a run at addressing Cur3's long post, but I don't know if I have the juice in my left tonight to finish composing it.

5) I am going to wait to vote. In terms of who I suspect to be Mafia:

Special Tier ~ Has Me Completely Baffled => Mr. Alice.

Most
Cur3
High Seraph
Cure
Least

Although I haven't read High Seraph's posts from today yet, so this may shift.

I'm a little more than bothered by the fact that I'm being looked at before certain others when I've given solid reasoning for everything I've done, been among the first to post my passes every single phase (Jersey 9. BTW), and the literal only thing that has contributed towards suspicion against me so far has been "Things are confusing. It's probably Raie or T3t".

If there's literally anything in the entire thread that I've said or done to have pointed somebody to believe I'm scummier than someone who made literally no decisions for themselves the entire game, has taken over two phases to respond to very important questions (and is now saying they might not have the juice to do it in general before the next lynch, conveniently), I would love to see it. It's simply not there. And I am a little upset that this isn't even being talked about.

I have a million reasons to believe duck is maf, all of which I asked them about. All of which they're also specifically not answering. They've been latching on to Kiyo as soon as it was established they were town and have simply parroted back her observations all game long without ever contributing a thing. (Read: What was enough for everyone to be ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED Dran was maf)

We had gigantic reasons to believe High Seraph was maf as well. Kiyo called Cure out for not reassessing them because we are so close to a loss. That didn't even happen. Now we are one mislynch away from losing and Kiyo is just dropping a vote on me with absolutely nothing attached to it. All of this is a little backwards to me.

If it sounds like I'm frustrated, it's because I am. We are about to lose and all logic has gone out the window for reasons I don't understand.



Remaining in the game are:

Kiyo
Lux
Duck
Tet
Cure
High Seraph
Blaire

If we're still operating on the pretense that Kiyo and Lux are confirmed town that leaves 5 remaining people and 3 of them are mafia.

In my opinion, it's Duck / High Seraph / Cure. I feel incredibly solid on the Duck and High Seraph side of the spectrum. And I am absolutely convinced that after reading into duck specifically you guys will realize why that is on your own merits.



After considering the passing order, the amount of contradictions that have been put out there by certain people, and then (and only then) how each person generally feels to you, if you still arrive at me as the best option. Fine. Lynch me. We will lose because of it but if that's what you really think, you'll find out really quick if you were right or wrong and what that was worth.

I want everyone to realize they shouldn't cast a vote lightly in any capacity this late in the game because if we're wrong we will lose. There should be heavy, heavy discussion. I see no reason to vote anybody but Duck / High Seraph / Cure this phase. If you do, I hope you bring something convincing out and are actually willing to talk about it.

Cur3suya wrote:
I have a million reasons to believe duck is maf, all of which I asked them about. All of which they're also specifically not answering.

I am currently working on a response. If you are wondering the delay, its because I had a few people over today. Ninfia and I both posted about this already, actually.

Saturday, the day when you asked these questions, I found out my Great-Uncle, who I love dearly, is on his deathbed too far away for me to reach, and that day was kinda a wash for accomplishing much. I think we all agree that lying about that would be beyond the pale.

I have been working on a post addressing your questions, and have been every since I finished doing the dishes after Ninfia left. I may not finished tonight, because it is getting late, and I am tired. Given that I am in EST, it's nearly 2am, and I hosted company for 9 hours today with 4 hours of prep and clean-up, and I am still on the edge of my seating waiting for the call to say my Great-Uncle has passed, I believe that being tired is above reproach.

I don't really see a scenario where Duck is on the same team as either Raie or Tet, and I'm less suspicious of Duck for making mistakes than I am of Tet and Raie for tunneling Duck so hard on those mistakes.

Also Duck's last minute vote on Tiki makes me less inclined to vote Duck.

I would be willing to vote Lucas though, but I'm leaving my vote where it is for now because I'm not really in the mood to deal with any of thread.

I don't feel like getting into things with this game right now. The last couple phases have been really frustrating.

I honestly don't know what to think of tet anymore. I could see him telling everyone to bus tiki which would give credit to tet/blaire being maf together and I could see tet being behind blaire's number claims after she switched in for chinomi. 

Imo: Lucas, Blaire and either tet/duck. But not both of them. Idk about this game anymore. 

The only thing I'm absolutely certain about is

Vote: High Seraph. 

Note: I am too tired to use genered pronouns. Sorry.

So, I did my bachelor in philosophy, and I was taught that an argument is only a strong as the strongest rebuttal it can overcome. Therefore, a sound argument anticipates and defeats its strongest rebuttals as part of said argument. When I made my 1000+ post, I included the best rebuttals I could produce to my arguments, and then made counterarguments to those rebuttals. I figured this would save us a lot of time.

I think this has confused some people, since its not the format you're used to. Ninfia told me that in Mafia you really want people to engage with you as much as possible, because that's when people will slip up and reveal themselves. By anticipating and refuting counterarguments before they happen, I am actually depriving myself of a great source of information.

Something else that I think may have been missed by some people, is that I spent about half of that post attacking myself.

Frankly, I was tired of being attacked over trivia, and wanted anyone serious about attacking to me actually make substantial arguments.

Essentially, I loaded a gun with Duckshot and left in on the table. I was very curious to see who would pick it up.

That person, it turned out, would be Cur3.

Before that post of Cur3's I thought people were wrong about Cur3 being Mafia, but didn't have any evidence to my gut feeling. I thought the evidence against them was to flimsy and circumstantial to to justify voting against them. I didn't say anything because I figured they were still likely to be lynched, and if they did flip Maf, I didn't want the mark of speaking in their defense against me.

But the fervor of Cur3's attack on me, and the lack of substance of said attack, has shifted my opinion somewhat. I still do not consider the evidence against them to be very strong, but I've yet to see stronger evidence presented against anyone else.

Now, regarding Cur3's post. The vast majority of it simply reiterates what I have said, without adding anything new, or accuses me of things that I had admitted to doing. He claims to have asked me millions of questions, yet I am not seeing many. I will break down the ones I can find. Cur3, if you could collect any questions I miss, I would be happy to address them.


Overdefending

Spoiler:

I apologize. I appear to have failed to make it clear that I have no defense against claims that I am, by your standards, over-defending.

I do not refute that by the standards of this community, I am likely over-defending.

What I am doing is drawing a line in the sand and saying this is my standard of defending. For me, this is normal. Town or Mafia, I will defend myself thusly. When I am shown to be Town, in future games, you will look back at me in this game and remember that my normal defending is another person's over-defending.

Some had said that I am dangerous because you don't know me. This is me; know me.


No Independent Action

Spoiler:

Considerable words have been spent arguing that I just do whatever Kiyoko does without my own independent thought, and that this is a mafia target.

To cut off the claims that I have been contradicting myself, I do not believe I ever claimed detachment from or indifference to Kiyoko. I never hid my respect for her, or my belief that keeping her alive is one of our best hopes in this game, which is why I have been dealing with these accusations for days.

The specific things I have denied are:

• I said Multiple Times that I would do what Kiyoko does. I have given evidence that I only said it once, and my accusers have failed to refute this proof, yet still maintain their claim.  
  
  
• That I have always done what Kiyoko has done. Again, see the Day 1 lynch, were I swung the vote away from Kiyoko's candidate. My accusers also refuse to acknowledged this fact.
  
  
• That I have been hanging exclusively on Kiyoko's every word and deed, and not paying attention to anyone else. And I did not quite tackle this one properly before. I had not realized it, but it appears that I have exclusively cited Kiyoko's speculation, and no one else's. And while I cannot prove that I have read and considered everyone else's posts, I can show two other times that I did respond to a player other than Kiyoko/Cure/Cur3, thus showing my attention to her has not been exclusive.
  

First, I will give an example of when I did not follow Kiyoko's lead and an example of when Kiyoko followed my lead, tell an amusing anecdote my accusers won't believe, and then I will show that even if I were following Kiyoko exclusively, it would not be likely to make me Mafia.


Acting Against Kiyoko's Lead
I have pointed out several times that on Day 1, I voted different from Kiyoko, and in doing so broke the tie and had the (Mafia) candidate she didn't vote for lynched. It seems some parties find this too inconvenient to remember.

On only vote were there were enough vote diversity to garner useful information, I voted differently than Kiyoko. To claim that I was being a lacky of Kiyoko in any of the other votes is weak evidence, considering the votes on AEIOU and Dranbahl were almost unanimous. If you claim those votes as evidence against me, you would need to claim them against nearly everyone else as in the game as well. I am sorry to repeat this point multiple times in one post, however it appears that people don't notice the first time I say something, so hopefully the third time is the charm.

Kiyoko Following my Lead
I introduced the idea of passing to safe numbers. I drew the wrong conclusions initially with that idea, but I introduced the concept of doing so. Once I had been shown my initial conclusions were wrong by Ezzelin, I proved that we had a mathematically better chance of hitting a spiker if we passed to safe numbers. Kiyoko, and most of you, have since proceeded to vote for safe numbers. In this way, you have all been following my lead, and my original contribution.


Amusing Annecdote

If you all recall, what incited this whole discussion was that I thought Cure said it was suspicious that I missed one of Kiyoko's posts, in which she said that #9 wasn't safe to pass to. I couldn't find this post, and much fuss was made.

I have since been directed to this post, and funnily enough, I had seen it, read it, and dismissed it as speculation with insufficient proof to act on. It didn't come to mind since I thought Cure meant that Kiyoko had followed up on this concept, and offered a more solid reasoning for her claim that she was spiker and #9 was not safe.

So this whole thing was not caused by me missing one of her posts, but by dismissing one of her posts as not being compelling.

Of course, I can't prove this, however I don't have to. Because no matter how much my prides wants me to argue to the contrary, it actually strengthens my claim to be Town for me to be attached to Kiyoko's will.


Following Kiyoko's Lead Does not Mafia Make

I can't find the post or who said it, but someone mentioned earlier that if I were Mafia, I would have been less likely to attach myself to Kiyoko, because I would have the guidance of the four mafia members to guide and mentor me. I would be making fewer mistakes, because I would have more guidance. My behavior is more likely to be the normal behavior of any new member of a community to depend on a respected veteran member for guidance with I get my footing.

That, to me, seems a better explanation than I have been resolutely sticking to a strategy that has been pointed out days ago is an obvious one, has been the keystone of arguments against people, and one on which basis (by your own admission, Cur3) someone was lynched.


Arguments Based on Misunderstandings

There are a few times when T3t appears to have misunderstood the facts of the situation, or my intent. These quotes and responses will hopefully clarify matters for you.

Spoiler:

You seem to have confused Cure's claim about me for something I claimed about myself. Cure is the one who claims that I would follow Kiyoko to the grave, and I am the one who claims I do not, although I do admit that I have drawn heavily form her anylsis in forming my own opinions. Perhaps that is what is confusing you?

So me missing a post actually weakens the claim that I blindly follow Kiyoko, and strengthens my claim that I do not. Which I have already shown repeatedly, anyway.

Spoiler:

Just a quick note that I cited every time I listed everything I said about Kiyoko, not everything Kiyoko said. The later feat would be far more impressive, and had I pulled it off I would be demanding a metal. That confusion invalidates this section of the argument, which I have already addressed multiple times, anyway.

Also, once again, it is Cure who claims I hang onto everything Kiyoko says; I claim otherwise, as previously discussed.

Spoiler:

You appear to have misinterpreted the intention of my post. The content of that thousand word post was about the most effective ways to attack me, and to stop mucking around with small petty accusations.

What that post actually was about metatexually was asserting myself in the game, overcoming my fear of speaking my mind, and establishing that I will defend myself excessively, even when innocent.

Given the repose you made to it, the responses I have made since, and this response, I believe I have accomplished both those aims.

Spoiler:

These two sentences seem to contradict each other. The first one says that I have admitted to acting suspicious, and the second part claims I refuse to admit look suspicious.

If it helps at all, here are two instances of me acknowledging my errors look suspicious in the post you were responding to:

This looks particularly bad because it was ezzelin who pointed out my errors, and he was the next night kill.

So I think I've really just increased my chance of getting lynched with this post, and hurt the town's odds of winning by increasing the odds of the town wasting a lynch on me.

Spoiler:

You are mistaken. If someone claims that I said something multiple times, and then I search all my posts and made an index showing I said that thing only once, I have shown solid proof that their claim is false.

Likewise, if someone claims something is impossible, and I show an instance of it having occurred, I have offered solid proof discrediting their statement.



Loading the Duckshot

Spoiler:

Not at all. It seemed like Cure (or rather the Cure/Cur3 amalgam in my brain) did not have anything meaningful to come at me with, so I was providing material for you to do so with. I made a deliberate choice to help people attack me, which is why I said: "So, Cure, next time you feel [like] posting that I'm scummy, I would recommend you look at my posts 112 and 115[...]"
And then proceeded to describe exactly why it makes me look bad.

And clearly I did not expect you to move past that without question because I said "So please, if you want to attack me [over] something, attack me over something reasonable, like this." But I can see how I might have confused someone, since I had made a typo (that "[over]" said "other" in the original post).

Interestingly, you did, indeed, move right past that without asking me any questions or, apparently, even fact checking what I said.

When I said "This looks particularly bad because it was ezzelin who pointed out my errors, and he was the next night kill," I did not mention that ezzelin also said:
"I don't like going after new players right off the bat, and I'd like to give entelechy a chance to explain their thought process"

Later, they questioned my math again, and I responded

This apparently satisfied ezzelin, although they did not respond to me directly,   ,because they later agreed with my conclusions.

The then posted this breakdown of who they were suspicious of.


In this final assessment, they rank me least likely to be mafia among all the people they found suspicious, their main grudge against me was that I didn't show my math initially (but I did when asked), and they signed off saying they were willing to give me the benefit of the doubt.

I would also like to note that I have not posted math since ezzelin was knocked out. If I had been targeting him to keep him from pointing out my errors, I would have probably continued to do the thing I was theoretically trying to stop him from catching me doing. The fact that I didn't post any math-statistics since undermines my supposed motive for targeting them.


All that aside, it is very unlikely that ezzelin was the intended target, from what we know now. The top two people on their list of people they would vote for have both been confirmed down. I imagine the mafia would have wanted to keep players highly suspicious of other townsfolk in the game, and the ball went astray.


Suggesting we Pass to Ourselves
I already addressed this here.

If my answer is not to your satisfaction, let me know. Don't say I never addressed it.

Melodramatic About Wanting Confirmed Town to Live
Welcome to me.

Miscellaneous

Spoiler:

I expected it would have this effect on someone, or at least someone would claim to have this effect on them.

Once again:

Spoiler:

I would like to ask everyone if you are Mafia. Could everyone claiming to not be Mafia please take a moment to say they aren't? It may seem silly, but I would appreciate it.

I am Town, I am not Mafia.


Three Thousand Words. Five AM.

ducky go to bed

Coach Ninfia wrote:ducky go to bed

WITNESS ME

Ducky has been modkilled. They were SLEEPY

go the fuck to sleep duck

i say, as i was about to go to sleep but ended up staying up reading that whole post

I'm not mafia but I don't think anyone needs to hear this from me

fwiw, independent of that gauntlet to Luxaria in wall of text form, of the five uncleared players, the person I'm actually most inclined to think is town at this point is Duck, because I don't think they would have done or said anything in this thread that they did or said if they had a mafia team to back them up, and for other reasons I'm not going to get into right now because I'm going the fuck to sleep too

Entelechy wrote:Three Thousand Words. Five AM.

I'd like to say TL;DR. But I read all of it. And I am exhausted.

Before I say anything, anything at all. I will repeat what I've said multiple times before, mostly to Lux. Whom you should propose to immediately because I'm fairly positive you just made her fall deeply in love with you with the length and depth of that post.

Wordiness does not preclude being incorrect.

Yes. That includes any wordiness I put out as well.

I feel like there's been a critical disconnect between how you view this game and how it is actually played. From that I can assume you're in a position where you view people here as unwelcoming, argumentative, and mean. Or at the very least the ones that tunnel you. I have to apologize if that's the case because there is nothing going on against you personally, and I would honestly hate to have you view it that way.

You are treating this as a scenario where not only is it imperative for you to 'Shoot down arguments before they even begin' because an argument is only as strong as it's strongest rebuttal, but you are also treating that as a situation where it is even possible to shoot down all arguments with a cover all explanation. I am here to tell you this is not the case.


Mafia is a Liar's Game.

The entire purpose of the game is to misdirect, mislead, provoke outbursts, and discredit your opponent. But on the flip side it is also a game of investigation, doubting your neighbor, problem solving, and reconstruction of events based on the simplest and most likely explanation. Mental manipulation and investigation hold as much place as acting on raw gut feeling.

It is not possible to cover all bases of a paradoxical argument. Some things are thrown at you simply to see how you react. Arguments about your position are exaggerated and to put it simply, You are cut to see how you bleed.


You are operating on the pretense that there are set rules and that just being correct in an argument is something that will prove or establish innocence. Sometimes just admitting that a mistake was made and your position is being revised is enough to change perceptions of your alignment. When you are given the issue of "Not having a defense against over-defending" the real issue is "We think you protest too much". Personally, when I see someone defending their over-defending by posting a 3,000 word essay on why your position is justified my perception does not change.


I won't say you didn't address your position. You did now. But everything I was concerned about still stands.

I said you were blindly following Kiyo's position. You said you were not. You are merely following a respected member of the community until you figured out how to get your footing. In a game where doubt should be present at all times, that is easy to consider blindly following them. Attaching your choices to the choices of an established town member to avoid suspicion is covered entirely of section 3 of you "How to Play a Mafia Member" handbook.

I said you were contradicting yourself with public errors. You agreed and said that they even looked particularly bad. Acknowledging that fact does not unmake it and remove it from the collective minds of everyone who are actively doubting you. To me, backing it up with several thousand words borders on absolute overkill to the point where it creates more doubt than you could have possibly cleared up.


You can try to establish innocence with all you have but when it comes down to it this game (specifically) does not allow anybody to trust you 100%. Sometimes you are able to be completely cleared by a mechanic or role. You aren't in this one. And it's not enough to get by on your character.

Cure and I were siblings in the last game in both role and flavor and in the end we shot each other in the face. That is probably the perfect summary on how trust works in this game.


So my TL;DR is this.

I am not mafia.

You need to go the fuck to sleep

I am also going to sleep.

Following Kiyoko's Lead Does not Mafia Make

Sometimes it does. And that's where the argument stops.

wait something is wrong here ok because if none of us are mafia, then who...




















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iM LAUGHING MY ASS OF RN SO IM JUST GONNA vote: Cure AND cOME BACK LATER WITH WORDS LMAO

(also i feel bad for people like Duck, T3t or blaire because they might not understand this joke im sorry guys)