Welcome to Katabasis Station, Work Shift 4

Is it really that strange to not vote Lucas? I 100% know they at least aren't convert, could Def still be maf but I at least have that and lucas obviously knows I'm not convert. IF lucas flips maf, does that make you more suspicious that I'd be the convert? Is it possible that Lucas wouldn't vote me not because I'm maf but because if lucas turns out maf it could easily throw shade on me and lead to a mislynch next time if no new info pops up and you're still thinking it's one of us? Since I know I'm town and lucas isn't convert I'd rather 

Lynch vote: Tiki
Tiki for being in shenanigans both nights honestly, he's popped up twice now in situations that don't quite make sense. I honestly feel more comfortable voting him than anyone else at this point
Also Re: me and not voting people and looking scummy or whatever then just remember my votes in HQ maf lmao

Tiebreaker vote: Nautilus 
I already stated this last time I just didn't end up voting for some reason

I won't have access to a computer until after rollover and typing on the phone is (kind of a pita) shitty, soo I'm just going to leave it at that for now

Tossing in my Vote: high seraph, but regardless of outcome I still want attention paid to Aeiou (and Tiki, even if my gut says town on him).

You'll know my alignment shortly, so Med Bay: Luxaria. Also, consider how much I dedicated myself to telling the truth, even when it might look suspicious. I value being truthful as town. Did I not follow my plan? Yes. Do we now know which group is guaranteed to have a mafia? Yes. Do we know that mafia tried to go to the Cargo Hold? Yes. And there wasn't a conversion last night.

Regardless of what you think of how I directed the thread, the results are very favorable for us. Mafia got blocked in every feasible way last night. Pretty easily, I might add.

I also would caution clearing anyone of convert status except for ezzelin. Kiyoko is also 99% cleared, but there is one scenario (I previously highlighted) wherein she could be the convert. We don't know how the mafia were placed on N0 just yet, so while I am less inclined to think that Mitsu and alca were converted, there is technically no concrete evidence beyond them vouching for each other based off of early Cargo Hold claims. I will go back and re-read D1, though, to see if I notice anything.

Insofar, my gut is telling me Tiki is town, dran is... more likely to be town than not, but could be mafia, and that ezz was not converted. I am and have been most suspicious of Lucas and Aeiou. I also am skeptical of Rasei's interactions this game, which stands out since I've never seen her blunder this badly as mafia, so I don't know how to read that. I previously laid out that I think at least one of Rasei/Mitsu is town, and that at least one or both of Ninfia/ezz are town. I re-iterate that I think the convert was most likely in the pool of Rasei, Mitsu, alca, Kiyoko, and Lucas. I am not quite sure how to read the current responses from Lucas and Aeiou (took this phase a bit lightly, tbh, since my plans worked), so we'll see when Lucas flips since he seems the guaranteed lynch target. I find Mitsu and ezz's spec to be rather in line with mine for the most part, so I am not inclined to pressure them until I see something damning.

Thus, I'm not sure how I feel about putting the armory vote onto Mitsu without being 100% sure of her alignment, but I don't want to vote for myself (even if by some chance I was mafia and got the role, you would know my alignment and that I have it and could work around it going forward) since I've already drawn so much attention and focus. I'm going to hold off on that vote for the moment. I don't think it's too much of a problem no matter who gets it, though.

Okay, so, here's my line of thinking now that both alcasync and drandahl have posted:

Earlier this phase I outlined a couple cases of possibilities for what would happen, and because the armory is the smallest group it's the easiest one to scrutinize, since the other two have room for error in movement with 4 players each.

I've previously stated that the armory is ambiguous in power, and there may be a slim chance that mafia may want it active to meet their own ends; the role itself isn't as hugely damning as the med bay and server room. I'm... a bit bemused at me being given the armory, but it's made me reconsider some scenarios with folks in that room, and I mostly just wanted to see how the armory people would vote.

On an unrelated note, I don't think the possibility of 1 town and 2 mafia in that room is particularly likely, because mafia could use that room to set of a conversion pretty easily and there was none last night.

ANYWAYS something that hasn't been really described yet, but I'll bring it up nevertheless: Ninfia being the incineration target. I actually thought Lux would be the top choice for the night ... infection? but Ninfia was chosen instead, in a room that had four individuals assigned. I can think of a few reasons she might be killed:

1. She had intimate knowledge of how at least one mafia member would operate like how I got killed in Snowmaf, and would be able to figure out the mafia quickly, or she had posted something damning in-thread towards a mafia member and she had to go (... going from her previous posts, Rasei? in terms of being able to figure people out I guess me and anyone who's ever been mafia with her before, so Lucas, Kiyoko, etc.,)
   
2. Possible frame on another player [killing Ninfia to make another player look suspicious] (... Rasei... because she outright suggested Rasei was the convert earlier iirc and voted on her)
   
3. Her townish-nature, along with her encouragement of the med bay option both nights
   
4. Mafia thought they might have gotten a conversion off in that room, but that implies that a) one mafia was in that room (can't be two because I submitted my ship task and I'm assuming Ninfia did too, so at best one town or more should be in there), and b) they believed that multiple people wouldn't go to that room, ensuring an accurate conversion. I doubt it's the third point because if ezz is town, then ezz showed repeated behaviour of wanting to go into the med bay and I don't think mafia would risk a conversion like this since there was a high chance ezz would go there (higher than mine from an outside observer, bc I did the 50% thing on N0)
   

Food for thought, though: it was Lucas' post about how ship tasks needed 3 people to be done in his little chart that threw me off really badly about how ship tasks worked, and it's a plausible explanation if Lucas and Rasei both thought that ship tasks required three people to activate for Rasei's slipup. I do agree that Rasei's been making an unusually high number of slipups this game, but I'm not sure what to think about it.

Unofficial vote tallies... Let me know if anything's off.

...med bay ship task (Aligment Reveal)

✧ Rasei: Rasei Lux
✧ Tiki: Lux
✧ Kiyo: Lux
✧ Naut: Lux
✧ Ezz: Lux
✧ Aeiou: Lux
✧ Lucas: Lux
✧ Alca: Lux
✧ Dran: Lux
✧ Lux: Lux

Lux: IX

...armory ship task (Tie Breaker role recipient)

✧ Rasei: Tiki
✧ Ezz: Naut
✧ Kiyo: Naut
✧ Alca: Naut
✧ Dran: Lux
✧ Aeiou: Naut
✧ Tiki: Naut

Tiki: I
Naut: V
Lux: I

...lynch target

✧ Rasei: Lucas
✧ Ezz: Lucas
✧ Lucas: Tiki
✧ Kiyo: Lucas
✧ Alca: Lucas
✧ Dran: Lucas
✧ Aeiou: Tiki
✧ Lux: Lucas
✧ Tiki: Lucas

Lucas: VII
Tiki: II

ftr I'm not voting myself because it!! feels a little awkward to do so but if a tie arises in the ship task vote for the armory ...




I'm going to break it

ANYWAYS: vote (lynch): high seraph. I debated doing Aeiou over Lucas but I have my reasons for doing Lucas, and also purely because by lynching Lucas we can take a swing at Aeiou vs lynching Tiki and learning Nothing About Anyone Else

I am still massively weirded out by the cargo hold and on an unrelated note I am slightly weirded out by how pro-town Tiki has been this entire game. I do not know if this means he is mafia. I have a feeling I know what alignment he is but the moment I say what I think his role PM is just going to edit itself and he'll switch to the other alignment

@Nautsu,

To add to your list of explanations of NK...
5. Mafia could have thought Lux might have gone to the Lab N0.
6. Lux could be mafia

True. I'm reserving all possibilities that have to do with Lux for now until we can get an alignment flip out of her, though, so we'll see.

I was... actually correct on where she went (?) though, so I'm kind of pleased about that. :')

@ Mitsu

I think it's most likely to be options 2 and 3 from what you describe.

I specifically tried to arrange room groupings such that the conversion would either be heavily unfavorable for mafia, or outright out them. This is why I tried to stack Med Bay as logically as I could.

We know mafia did send one person out of Server Room. I think if all three had been mafia, they may have considered trying to convert me (though risky; thread already wanted to med bay me). Meaning it's likely there's another town in there with me. We had previously covered in thread that the ship task goes off even if one of the people in the room is killed, so unless mafia really isn't paying attention, I'm inclined to believe that:

1. The reason they didn't kill a town in Server Room had nothing to do with the erroneous idea that one mafia would be gone, and killing another town would bring it down to 2 and thus make the Server Room's task inoperable, outing their movement. They should have known this wouldn't be the case.

2. Likewise, they probably didn't kill Ninfia and have a mafia leave the room, hoping the Med Bay task would fail. If this mafia were Rasei, maybe it'd make sense, since she seems to have missed so many mechanics? But I feel like her partners would have realized the interactions by now. ezz and Mitsu would definitely know of this mechanical interaction, also, as the only other possible people that may have left the room for this scenario to "work".

Thus, I'm inclined to believe that:

1. If at all, the conversion could only happen in the Armory, which would be incredibly damning to them near instantly.

or

2. The conversion was impossible to perform.

Because if we know one mafia left the Server Room, that leaves two unaccounted for, so only the Armory is possible at that point.

So the question is then "but why Ninfia?" Again, your #2 and #3 points. I wasn't sure if I'd die because the thread seemed interested in med baying me regardless, which means from mafia's perspective at the time, the alignment check is being used on someone they know is town--which opens that player up to be killed or converted later (or so they thought)--rather than a potential mafia. Further, eliminating one person the town unanimously agrees cannot be the convert reduces town's speculative ability to some extent. It also makes other targets possibly more suspicious since they were not targeted.

Anyway, that's just off-the-cuff speculation.

Also, I had a feeling you predicted the Brig.

"Ah, it's good to be home! Well, let's see how the votes are going, how spec is coming along, and then I'll-"

n☆util☆s wrote:I am still massively weirded out by the cargo hold and on an unrelated note I am slightly weirded out by how pro-town Tiki has been this entire game. I do not know if this means he is mafia. I have a feeling I know what alignment he is but the moment I say what I think his role PM is just going to edit itself and he'll switch to the other alignment

...
...
...
D=



I just can't win...

But anyway, while I'd rather vote Lux or Alca over Nautie/Mitsu, doing a tie will only ensure we don't have the tie break. So, to avoid that, Tie Breaker Vote: Nautilus.

And looks like the vote for lynch is going to swing to be either Lucas or me. This is not the time to be voting myself. XD

Lynch vote: High Seraph

I'll miss your confused yelling, Lucas.

@Ezz I'm a guy, but I have no problems at all with use of "them" as a pronoun.

Sorry, not really any new info to contribute, but here's where I stand.

Likely town / Not Comfortable Lynching:
Lux
She's pushing way too hard on pro-town coordination to be mafia... there's just no reason mafia would need to lead town in this way, unless they're trying to win in a particular style.

As other people have mentioned, her lack of dedication to her plan is alarming, but I personally don't read it as scummy. I read it more as "taking the best action to help town, and still ensure I am cleared as town," which I'm okay with.

Nautilus
Leaning town, primarily from her involvement in-thread. I'm a little weired out by the number of people comfortably voting her for Tie Breaker, but I don't think that's enough to speak to her alignment right now.


Neutral/???:

Kiyo
She's going through a lot outside the game right now, so I'm not alarmed by her posting style. I am a little concerned about the Kiyo/Blaire dynamics, even with Blaire flipping town. That said, I'm not concerned enough / haven't thought it through enough to lean mafia on Kiyo right now.

Could potentially be the N0 convert, if mafia swapped her and another mafia's claims. Though this is true for other players as well, I'm pointing her out because I could picture her as a N0 infection target.

Alca
Having trouble reading Alca. I feel like she hasn't been that agressive this game (not that she's usually super-agressive). I feel like she's been initiating votes less often than usual, though she could just be busy.

ezz
Ezz's vote on Naut for Tie Breaker kind of makes sense as an initial vote, so I don't feel weird about it. Ezz has in general been helping out in discussion, and I haven't found anything so weird to be noteworthy yet.

However her second vote on Lucas today seems weird to me for some reason. I'll think about this a little more...


Comfortable Lynching:

Rasei
Her playstyle has been confusing. Normally I would just write this off as "she's being too outwardly confusing to be mafia," but her voting patterns have been insufficiently explained as town (in particular her early Tie Breaker vote on Tiki seemed odd to me). Not my strongest candidate for mafia, but I'm considering mafia for now.

Lucas
I don't have much to add on Lucas. I don't personally distrust him, but I do think he could be mafia. His lack of voting on D1 feels weird to me, though we did start voting really late that phase. Still, this drives him to the top of my list for now.

I'm still comfortable lynching any of the Server Room assignees.

Tiki
Same opinion as Lucas.

Voweiou
Same opinion as Lucas and Tiki, though I'm reading a little more town from voting patterns.

dran
Stepped on a thumbtack yesterday. Taking a little while to heal up, and the skin is a little red. Hope it's not infected.

Having trouble reading Alca. I feel like she hasn't been that agressive this game (not that she's usually super-agressive). I feel like she's been initiating votes less often than usual, though she could just be busy.

For what it's worth: I see this too, and it's what makes me a little ? about alca since I feel like maf!alca is more likely to lay low. It's been ages since I've seen a town alca in a maingame in the wild though, so I have no idea what to think of this as a whole and she might genuinely be busy.

Rasei is back, Ren Faire was both fun and had no internet, and Rasei doesn't really remember what she did last night regarding voting.


EDIT: Rasei is not going to change her votes this late in the game. She also isn't planning on drinking anytime soon since she reached her one drunk for the year.

Dran wrote:
dran
Stepped on a thumbtack yesterday. Taking a little while to heal up, and the skin is a little red. Hope it's not infected.

Ouch. That hurts a lot. Are you up to date with your tetanus shot? Because you really dont want lockjaw.

Rasei now refers to herself in the 3rd person?

...
*shrugs*