good evening friends I believe it's time for me to post some more in-depth thoughts on everyone.
luxaria -
fairly convinced that they're town after coming up with the plan last night, though going off on their own does rub me wrong a tiny bit. either way, it should all be revealed at rollover the way votes stand as of now.
the only situation in which lux can be mafia, is if they are actually at a point where if we alignment check them and not someone else, they can guarantee their victory. we stand at 7:3 right now, and in the worst case scenario 6:3 after this phase; assuming we've been lied to about the cargo hold situation last night, and the mafia got hold of a vig kill through it for example, they could push it down to 4:3 or 4:4 if they manage to infect someone, and win. but that's a lot of if's, and luxaria suggested that we clear the planner, so them, in the previous phase (or even two phases ago?) already. I don't think this situation is likely - but if it is then I can just clap tbh.
kiyoko -
I don't really have a read on kiyoko. cannot be the N0 convert. going through some rl stuff so less activity that I've seen in the past two games with them is more than understandable, but I am having troubles reading them. what they did say so far has been relatively pro-town, and pointed out a few things that would be far from beneficial for maf to point out so I'm leaning town (though I admit I did initially suspect the kiyo/blaire pair more than lucas/vowels, if nothing else at least for the fact that kiyo seemed a likely N0 target).
high seraph -
I... can't exactly pinpoint it, but I've been feeling increasingly suspicious of lucas for a while now. first it's the N0 situation, but initially I've suspected them and vowels less than kiyo/blaire; after blaire flipped town though my attention switched to lucas and vowels rather than the cargo hold claimers (which I will explain later for each of them).
lucas' and vowels mutual disinclination to vote for each other, and suspecting tiki and luxaria instead makes me feel more certain of it, though I don't really know how to react to the whole don't care if I die vibe. it does sort of strike me as odd that lucas wouldn't make more of an effort to defend; but I guess the most viable second target (vowels) could incriminate him as well, so. idk. I do believe that he is very likely infected, though.
vowels -
similar reasoning as with lucas re:N0 shenanigans, and disinclination to vote for each other. I was probably the least suspicious of them out of all four of kiyo/blaire/lucas from the selection of paired people outside of me&ninfia, mostly because of their in-thread blunder that showed some misinterpretation of the game mechanics, and it would seem to me that a mafia wouldn't make such a blunder. that doesn't exclude them from being the convert, which I think is the likeliest situation if lucas flips maf. (and while I believed in the beginning that the mafia would go for a common N0 target, I feel now that it might be likelier for them to have gone after an unexpected one.)
ezzelin -
that me and I am town.
dran -
don't really know what to think of them. very much ??? tier. I find it suspicious that they went for the key of all things that could've been much more helpful to town; imo I think lux's "let's make mafia sacrifice someone for the eva or they'll lose" was really just a matter of time, and feel like it's more likely for a maf to want to secure the key to either go there themselves or let back a comrade. they did try to be useful with spec though... even if I don't really remember them pointing out anything new, I believe. really not sure. definitely observing. (and definitely the more suspicious one out of the two people that were in rooms alone on N0.)
rasei -
oh man. rasei sorta flew under my radar right until the whole claimed ship task shenanigans. I... see how it's possible that it was a genuine mistake, but I also feel very iffy about their rushed post explaining it after I'm fairly sure they said that they probably won't be around until the end of the phase. it does really give of a feeling of being rushed to say that they made a mistake by a fellow maf teammate, to me rather than an honest mistake. I still wanted to not just hop on that and observe them for a while, but to this moment they have done absolutely nothing that would make my suspicions less. on my suspect list probably right under lucas/vowels combo.
tiki -
despite the N0 cargo hold situation, I don't suspect tiki as much. they're offered some perfectly valid spec, and tried to contribute, and I just honestly don't feel like they're mafia? It's not really anything I could point a finger to, but I'm just getting town vibes, or have a gut feeling if you will. and the last time I had a gut feeling about them being mafia I was right iirc, so I'm inclined to trust my gut feeling telling me they're not this time, for now at least.
alca -
not really sure what to think of alca, but leaning town primarily because of the early cargo hold claim on N0. I'm very inclined to believe that claim for reasons that both I and other people have stated several times; of course that doesn't make them instantly town, but it's very unlikely and not beneficial for a townie to lie about their whereabouts. another option would be that they were elsewhere, but a teammate was in cargo hold and told them there were more people there, and to claim early but... but I'm not really buying that tbh.
nautilus -
probably one of the people I feel most strongly about being town (aside from ninfia before they got incinerated), primarily on their spec posts. they've been proactive, helpful and critical, and overall I'm reading a very pro-town vibe off their posts. which is also why I wish to entrust them with the tiebreaker role.
*if anyone has a problem with me using "them" for them, let me know and I will correct my ways. too tired to think about gendered pronouns rn.
**I've been using the terms maf/mafia/infected interchangeably, and using town for crew.