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Cry Wolf » Archives » A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

+11
Tinylightsflash
drandahl
Rasei
katagi
Tiki The Troll
She-Ra
high seraph
Luxaria
Five
ezzelin
Ninfia
15 posters

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421A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:06 pm

katagi

katagi

OK so re: sammie, my initial suspicion was just an activity-poke, but since that poke, she only posted three times. one of those posts was after my 'poke' and didn't address it at all (unless im grossly misunderstanding something about how people are expected to react to activity-based pokes), one of those posts was pretty solid, and one was a(n admittedly satisfying) story about a cat

it just seems very "trying to be quiet mafia person" to me

she has not been posting much since the game started so i didn't originally think she was the recruit - but that's a possible maf gambit right there, frankly: its a very sustainable posting style that can be easily upheld pre- and post-recruitment


anyway! regarding my own alignment, i am obviously going to say im town, but a thought occurred to me just now; what if recruitment was silent and the convert never even got notified of it? i guess it'd be essentially just a tailor who also happened to affect the ratio in rollover. i don't think it's very likely but i feeel like throwing that idea out there is helpful anyway!! maybe!


back to sammiya: my suspicions are gut-instinct-y, which i know is a totally unsatisfying answer. I'm rereading her posts right now to try and see if there is a reason my lizard brain is sending me the Suspicion Feels, which is how I came up with the point about her posting style being pretty helpful to a recruitment

part of the reason my vote stayed on sammiya, aside from my suspicionfeels, was because the alternative - the vote on dran - was way too hot topic, i did not want to be part of that bandwagon, haha. I will try and reread the posts involving it and see if i can glean some more info, too!

aside from sammiya i only have a few ideas on who might be mafia. actually it's just one concrete observation: ezz's priority list of suspicions is awfully convenient (top tier is me, second tier is someone of whom i've been the ?primary? FOS-er)... it's hard for me to put my ideas out in super logical sentences like lux does (i totally admire that btw), but i hope that makes sense

sorry for words!!!! please feel free to ask me more questions!!

422A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:44 pm

ezzelin

ezzelin

Tiki The Average Troll wrote:Resell is Town.

R E S E L L

423A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:45 pm

Tinylightsflash

Tinylightsflash

I'm still plague ridden but am back at work so I won't be very active until after rollover (like 4 hours after rollover.)
Skim read the recent posts and here are my feelings! What lux said about Lucas pushing for all the major changes in voting patterns makes sense to me, so I guess Lucas is off my no Lynch list. Katagi I don't really have any huge suspicions about and tiki I'm sure was town at the start of the game. If I had to pick targets I'd say Rasei because I initially voted that way on day 2 or whatever day it was and still wish I'd stuck to my guns. Also it would give us more info on Lucas' alignment since he pushed so hard to save Rasei.

Will be back after school and maybe sooner depending on how flat out I am.

424A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:46 pm

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

ezzelin wrote:
Tiki The Average Troll wrote:Resell is Town.

R E S E L L

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

425A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:49 pm

katagi

katagi

its a very important time to discuss things and im glad lots of people are discussing things but wee need

more discussion

426A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:54 pm

She-Ra

She-Ra

Luxaria wrote:
Basically, he could have been poked to show up, but chose not to vote. Who knows? I agree mafia has some strong inclination to prod one another to do something to impact the phase when it's a neck-and-neck vote, so Tiki's one-off post is just kind of... in this no man's land if you look at it from that angle. I'm not saying Tiki's attitude all last phase is conclusively mafia; I am grilling him because I want to know what he's thinking rather than how much he likes Tiny.

I agree that it doesn't mean he's not maf just because he didn't vote (and I think I said that?) and I'm with you on this. Tiki is suspicious to me because he kind of seems to be... deflecting? And not saying a lot. I sympathize though that he's having bad days so I'm willing to put him kind of lower on my suspicions list. I would just like to hear more from... most people, tbh.
Luxaria wrote:
She-Ra wrote:Samiya has become maybe a little more suspicious to me, since she was Dran's main suspect, and Dran flipped town.

Is there more reasoning to this? Sammiya could end up being town and drandahl, a town, voted on her. drandahl went down with at least several town votes, and on the chance Lucas is town, that might have been started by a town vote, too. Lucas did kind of seem to throw that vote out there, and I've said before I go back and forth on Lucas a lot during the game. I still have no reason to trust him, for the record. I suppose the reason I'm inclined to give Lucas and ezz some leeway in my immediate lynch reads is because they've overall been fairly contributing.

So in this context, the immediate Lucas and Sammiya NL due to the pressure on Rasei was drandahl's lead. What do you think of this lead and the votes as they pertain to D2? And now, seeing that voting list, how about the votes at the end of D3 from the respective players involved during D2?

Okay. This is actually a good point, and one I was actually trying to be conscious of. On the one hand, both Dran and Sammie were sort of vibing maf to me, and they seemed to be targeting each other which makes me think it's possible that Dran was getting too close with his suspicions on a maf!Samiya, since Dran flipped town. But he could have also been wrong and Samiya be town, I think Samiya is another player we haven't heard a whole lot from and iirc there have been a couple votes on her that were actually just pokes for being inactive. I did suspect Rasei, and the nl train is maybe a little suspicious, but at this point I think a lot of people were just NL-ing for caution's sake and that it doesn't really lend much to whether I think people are maf - not based on just voting NL on rasei anyway. Though I am still concerned that rasei may be maf and the NL had some maf votes in it to save her. Then again, maf could have been putting pressure in the Rasei vote in which case town exercising caution was good. AM UNSURE.

So for Dran's fos on Lucas I feel like that one resonates less than his fos on Samiya just because I found lucas' posts to feel very pro town. But I also don't think he's posted as much recently as he did earlier in the game so he's a bit up in the air. Like everyone. Lucas also voted on me twice which I don't love, and never really offered a reason for it? But his spec has read as helpful and pro-town to me and also I think he's been pretty consistent, vibez-wise.

Luxaria wrote:
Why do you think one person in this pair of three is probably mafia? What do you think of katagi and myself, specifically? In terms of the comments we've directed at one another, the speculation, and the context surrounded both us and the night actions on us? You indicate later that katagi is your main suspect. Why is this? What is it in the arguments for and against her that tips her into your most suspicious?

Okay. Well I'm trying to wrap my head around all the theories for what happened with you three, but if all three shots came from maf I would think that either all three were town or one was maf shooting itself to clear someone, but even if all three were town I think that they might make good recruit candidates. You I think, specifically, would be a good candidate because... you're goddamn good at this game and making me doubt everything right now which tbh would be great for maf.
Katagi I'm suspicious of as potentially having been a maf target the maf wanted to clear OR a townvig target since there's been suspicion on her pretty much all game. I'll admit that other people's positions tend to influence me maybe more than they should... but, backreading everything here are some thoughts as I go:

- Katagi was sort of cryptic at the beginning of the game, and kind of evading questions it felt like. Gut reaction vibes.
- Lucas pinged tiki early on for vibey things which still haven't changed, and the claim of actions not going through (which also hasn't changed) so more evasiveness here from tiki and also lends to me finding Lucas' analysis as pro-town
- Samiya being consistently noncommital could go either way, I guess, since we had so little information for so long.
- my calculus joke was hilarious ok
- "If I am the lynch please pressure lux" - Katagi. Gets to me. On the one hand it has the same tone as other maf lynch targets I've seen trying to spin a thing and cast suspicions. Lux analysis seems generally pro-town but is getting more agressive? Might just be because of general lack of discussion in this thread though.
- need more Sammy posts there's so little and what there is is kinda vague and/or cryptic.
- going back and forth on Rasei tbh. Some things read scummy and some things read very not. Maybe that in itself is suspicious though?
-my thoughts are going in circles. Lotsa gut reads in this game. Lots of confusion. Very not average.

=/ this has probably been wholly unhelpful and I'm sorry.

also posts happened while I was writing this but I don't think they add much to my thoughts except maybe more confusion.

427A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:55 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

@ezzelin
ezzelin wrote: I also tend to trust my gut feeling a lot because it tends to be rather accurate.

So your gut feeling is I'm town, Lucas is town, katagi is mafia, and by the sound of it leaning pro-town on Tiki and Rasei. What are your other gut feelings regarding the thread?


ezzelin wrote:Thread interaction, reactions, N1 situation and certain claimed actions.

When you are able, can you elaborate on these points? There's three reasons I keep insisting on this, and if you're town, knowing me as you do, you should be able to have an idea of why that might be.

ezzelin wrote:I think I got all of your questions? Let me know if I missed any.

You got them, and I appreciate it very much. What do you think of the responses others have fielded this phase between both their answers to questions and their unprovoked speculation?


@Tiki
Tiki the Troll wrote:The only thing I'm one hundred percent sure about, and WILL NOT change my mind on (pending another conversion), is that Rasei is Town.

Why?

Tiki the Troll wrote:As for anything else, I honestly have no idea.

Hmm.

I am sorry you are in a bad way, and I hope you find your way. Most of your answers were... okay, but I still would very much like to know more concrete thoughts and reads from whatever you've read across the game. I know it's scary to possibly deliver incorrect or misguided thoughts if you're town (this goes for everyone), but I'd rather we all talk and feel each other out than just... sit in silence and hesitation.

@katagi
katagi wrote:OK so re: sammie, my initial suspicion was just an activity-poke, but since that poke, she only posted three times. one of those posts was after my 'poke' and didn't address it at all (unless im grossly misunderstanding something about how people are expected to react to activity-based pokes), one of those posts was pretty solid, and one was a(n admittedly satisfying) story about a cat

it just seems very "trying to be quiet mafia person" to me

I can see this. Sammie is a bit ambiguous and plays close to like this between town and mafia, though as town she does contribute more over time, I feel, even if she is very selfless, but I've seen her speak out if anyone went onto her for blatantly erroneous reasons. I've felt like she's latched onto a lot of my things during the game, but I know she's also busy and shows up and usually tends to agree with me--for better or worse--which is why I'm not sure how to follow it, especially because I know that situation can suck if you have things you want to say, but they've all already been said. I also realize she said she was sick (?), but I would very much like to see any thoughts she might have regarding town and everything that's unfolded. She was in my willing to lynch category for a reason, and the main reason I held back is I was suspicious of you and drandahl given your placement on my own reads.

katagi wrote:but a thought occurred to me just now; what if recruitment was silent and the convert never even got notified of it? i guess it'd be essentially just a tailor who also happened to affect the ratio in rollover. i don't think it's very likely but i feeel like throwing that idea out there is helpful anyway!! maybe!

I actually mused this to Hayley, or at least the idea of the recruit not knowing they're even the target of the "recruit", whatever that might be. She gave me the OuO as hosts love to do (tbh I love to do it as host, too; expect it soon). I feel like an actual mafia convert that doesn't know the mafia is unlikely. A public tailor? That might be possible, because lately I've been feeling like this game is kind of way too swingy if there is a convert, but it's hard to tell without seeing behind the scenes. I guess we'll only know for certain if the ratio dips to even.

katagi wrote:part of the reason my vote stayed on sammiya, aside from my suspicionfeels, was because the alternative - the vote on dran - was way too hot topic, i did not want to be part of that bandwagon, haha. I will try and reread the posts involving it and see if i can glean some more info, too!

katagi wrote:i'm also willing to go along with a dran lynch bc i see the point theree

That was your comment 13 minutes before rollover before the bandwagon happened. Granted, the next few votes on drandahl came a few minutes later, so I guess I can see your perspective. I suppose I am curious as to what kept you from swapping at the time of that post? Were you waiting to see more discussion in the last handful of minutes? I can understand not wanting to move your vote at that time because I tend to do the same, too.

katagi wrote:actually it's just one concrete observation: ezz's priority list of suspicions is awfully convenient (top tier is me, second tier is someone of whom i've been the ?primary? FOS-er)

This is a good point. ezz, do you have a response to why you both suspect katagi and Sammiya primarily, when katagi led the lynch on the tie on drandahl up until and through the end of the phase?

jfc I don't know how I accidentally set this thread to watch, but now it's irritating me. I must turn this off.

428A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:06 pm

katagi

katagi

yes, I was waiting to see more discussion and to see if the votes swung any which way beforee deciding - and I became hesitant to votee dran due to suddenly it being the thing to do - why bother hopping on a bandwagon if its obviously 1) going to be successful and 2) a huge honking bandwagon, was my reasoning, if that makes sense!

BTW, I think I am less suspicious of lux now (as i said before). you've beeen very pro-town and all by spurring on all this discussion (thanks for that, by the way). if you aree maf, you're doing a splendid job! haha

429A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:08 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

Tiny wrote:What lux said about Lucas pushing for all the major changes in voting patterns makes sense to me, so I guess Lucas is off my no Lynch list.

Do you have reasons to move him off beyond my own speculation? What do you think of the thoughts he's offered? I do admit the timing of his votes can look bad in some ways, but that can happen to anyone (tbh the timing of my votes look awful this game for what has happened, too; I mainly try to compensate for possible late timing by clearly broadcasting all phase what I'm thinking... but next day we are all voting earlier 100%... assuming we live.)

Tiny wrote:Katagi I don't really have any huge suspicions about

Okay, if that's the case, what do you think about how others view katagi as probably mafia? What about their arguments do you not agree with? And what do you think of the players suggesting them?


Tiny wrote:tiki I'm sure was town at the start of the game

What do you think now after D3 and his responses this phase, in conjunction with the comments others have made about him?

Tiny wrote:If I had to pick targets I'd say Rasei because I initially voted that way on day 2 or whatever day it was and still wish I'd stuck to my guns. Also it would give us more info on Lucas' alignment since he pushed so hard to save Rasei.

This is a good point about providing info on Lucas, but on the chance she's town, it'd be a ML (mislynch) into a loss searching for information (assuming tomorrow is 4:5). Do you have more concrete reasons to vote Rasei that are more reliable than trying to read another player? If Rasei had flipped town on D2, who would you look at? If she flipped mafia, same question?


Spoiler:

430A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:14 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

I've read them, but I'll get to She-Ra and katagi's recent replies shortly. need water and air.

but ALL THOSE that give me the precious commodity known as words will be rewarded with speculation and questions, and I hope you guys start asking each other questions and cross-referencing like has started to go on

this is good

all that is happening is good

431A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:17 pm

She-Ra

She-Ra

ty Lux but just a warning that my class is ending soon and it is unlikely I'll be online again tonight. I'll try to check in to read what you say but probably won't have time to format much more of a reply tonight :(

432A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:00 pm

Tiki The Troll

Tiki The Troll

Kiyoko wrote:
ezzelin wrote:
Tiki The Average Troll wrote:Resell is Town.

R E S E L L

Oh, I needed that laugh. XD
Thank you, Kiyo.
Thank you, Ezz.
Thank you, phone.

As for why I'm sure "Resell" is Town, just, take my word for it, if ya will.
And yes, another short, hit and run post from me.

433A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:01 pm

katagi

katagi

posts like that are ekind of scummy ("soandso is town! why? bc... just because"), but, like, i trust you, anyway

434A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:09 pm

Tiki The Troll

Tiki The Troll

katagi wrote:posts like that are ekind of scummy ("soandso is town! why? bc... just because"), but, like, i trust you, anyway

Indeed. But, in the event I die, and that doesn't end the game, I just really, really want to emphasize my pro-Rasei stance.

435A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] - Page 29 Empty Re: A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!] Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:32 pm

ezzelin

ezzelin

Luxaria wrote:So your gut feeling is I'm town, Lucas is town, katagi is mafia, and by the sound of it leaning pro-town on Tiki and Rasei. What are your other gut feelings regarding the thread?
Not quite. My gut feeling can't decide whether you or katagi is town, but reason says you're probably the town one out of the two.

katagi > sammie > tiny = vowels = she-ra > lux = tiki > lucas > rasei

is the total, going from most suspicion to most trust in being town, accounting for both reason and gut feeling. on a lot of those, my gut feeling can't decide, on others my gut feeling is the reason they're there. my suspicions are always a compound of gut feeling and reads based on people's reactions, manner of posting, claims, and other information I may or may not have.

Luxaria wrote:
ezzelin wrote:Thread interaction, reactions, N1 situation and certain claimed actions.

When you are able, can you elaborate on these points? There's three reasons I keep insisting on this, and if you're town, knowing me as you do, you should be able to have an idea of why that might be.

Thread interaction and reaction reads consist primarily of katagi suspecting you, and I think you at some point also considering katagi? unsure about the latter; there would be no reason to bus if you were both mafia, as it would only serve to make katagi look suspicious; if you're both town, the timing doesn't quite make sense.
Furthermore, katagi now deciding to not be suspicious of you after all - either katagi is town and you're doing a great job as mafia, or you're town and katagi realised it will be impossible to push for a lynch on you and decided to not incriminate herself further by throwing shade on your spec.

As for actions; firstly, you've been both targeted for a kill on N1 and I already said I believed one of those attempts was town-originating. Secondly, Katagi targeted Five on N1 and you on N2; Five promptly died on N2 while you were also targeted for a kill on N2. Incidentally, no one else claimed to have acted on you.
Yes, I am aware of the fact that there's a high possibility that mafia (or even some townies) will be lying about their targets - but I also think they would be wary about doing so, and would stick to claiming their actual targets whenever possible.
That should be more or less the gist of it, I think.

Luxaria wrote:What do you think of the responses others have fielded this phase between both their answers to questions and their unprovoked speculation?
I have not read too deeply in everyone's responses and spec, as I have said before that I am sad and do not want to spec. I'm doing what I can because I don't want to sink the ship, but from what I have seen, my opinion has not changed much nor did it affect my choices. I will reread through this phase before we get around to voting tomorrow, as I will definitely not be around to vote soon after rollover.

Luxaria wrote:
katagi wrote:actually it's just one concrete observation: ezz's priority list of suspicions is awfully convenient (top tier is me, second tier is someone of whom i've been the ?primary? FOS-er)

This is a good point. ezz, do you have a response to why you both suspect katagi and Sammiya primarily, when katagi led the lynch on the tie on drandahl up until and through the end of the phase?
I fail to see how that is "awfully convenient", tbh.
I already explained why I suspect each of them, repeatedly, and I have mentioned being mildly suspicious of katagi on D1 and of sammiya on D2. The only reason I have not voted/pushed for sammiya on D2, as I have also mentioned at the time, was because she hasn't been playing in a while and I was willing to attribute my reads to that for the time being.
I hardly call that "leading a lynch" when, if my memory servers right, it was a tie at two votes each with most players still have not voted, the second vote on sammiya was from dran to possibly counter the one on him, and moreover, her vote was "randomly selected poke". This is not sufficient for me to stop suspecting a player that I have more reads against.
Remember how katagi gave mitsu a gun in ccs maf? Did that stop me for pushing for her? It didn't. Was she mafia? She was.

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