A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

I'm catching up on the thread. Hopefully I will follow up with a huge post... but I already started my new addiction so I might not...

@ Tiki

I'm guessing this pro-Rasei stance is a recent development from N2, eh? Any other really pro-player stances you happen to have?

I'm still not sure how I feel about you, honestly.


Anyway, back to the grind of replying to posts.

/me looks at luxaria, looks at ezz, looks back again, etc

WHAT IF YOU'RE BOTH MAF AND LAUGHING REALLY HARD AT ME RIGHT NOW... THIS IS TOO INTENSE

I FEEL LIKE THAT SOMETIMES KATAGI! ALSO ALSO! ALSO! I DON:T KNOW WHAT TO DO! IF I DO ONE THING< IT MIGHT BE GOOD> BUT IF I DO SOMETHING ELSE IT MIGHT MAKE USE LOOSE THE GAME AND I WANT HELP BUT ITS TO LATE AND AND AND>>> LUX YOU ARE TOWN RIGHT> YOU PROMISE ON YOUR FARM RIGHT?

@She-Ra

She-Ra wrote:I agree that it doesn't mean he's not maf just because he didn't vote (and I think I said that?)

You did, yes.

She-Ra wrote:On the one hand, both Dran and Sammie were sort of vibing maf to me, and they seemed to be targeting each other which makes me think it's possible that Dran was getting too close with his suspicions on a maf!Samiya

Hm, Sammiya never said anything outright or against drandahl. Sammiya's mostly voting no lynch or not at all, and her only comment in drandahl's direction was stating she targeted him N0. She did reply to katagi, since katagi started the vote that drandahl followed up on:

Sammiya wrote:I saw no reason to respond to it since it was, as you said at the time, a random poke. Random pokes don't necessitate a response since they are normally based purely on activity.

drandahl's vote on Sammiya was more of a "either her or Lucas" kind of deal, since his analysis of the votes indicated that probably one of them might be mafia given the sudden NL train, and they were were it began to turn. But, regardless of this, it may be true that drandahl was on track with his suspicions if Sammiya is mafia.

She-Ra wrote:I did suspect Rasei, and the nl train is maybe a little suspicious, but at this point I think a lot of people were just NL-ing for caution's sake and that it doesn't really lend much to whether I think people are maf - not based on just voting NL on rasei anyway. Though I am still concerned that rasei may be maf and the NL had some maf votes in it to save her. Then again, maf could have been putting pressure in the Rasei vote in which case town exercising caution was good. AM UNSURE.

Completely fair. Lucas commented he was sure one of the votes on Rasei prior to his NL was mafia (or at least his wording suggested it; it may not have been as committed), and I voiced similar opinion given how the phase went. I can also see mafia slipping into the NL train. It really depends on Rasei's alignment, which is up in the air in some regards.

She-Ra wrote:but if all three shots came from maf I would think that either all three were town or one was maf shooting itself to clear someone, but even if all three were town I think that they might make good recruit candidates. You I think, specifically, would be a good candidate because... you're goddamn good at this game and making me doubt everything right now which tbh would be great for maf.
Katagi I'm suspicious of as potentially having been a maf target the maf wanted to clear OR a townvig target since there's been suspicion on her pretty much all game. I'll admit that other people's positions tend to influence me maybe more than they should... but, backreading everything here are some thoughts as I go:

Would you think all three shots would come from maf? Actually, to clarify, when you say all three which ones are you referring to? The three attempts on Aeiou, katagi, and myself prior to N2? Or the presumed three mafia shots spread between N1 and N2?

Speculating on who might be recruited is difficult, though. We can propose a lot of theories but until we see more inconsistent actions in thread, it's hard to tell. You mention katagi and myself most in that, though. What about Aeiou on N0, and arguably even ezz, for that matter? Especially Aeiou since your original quote was one of Aeiou, katagi, and Lux was probably mafia, or something to that effect. I will say for my part I tend to be... immediately obvious when I am mafia, apparently. So I'm told, but it's not really a defense, so, letting my efforts speak for me in that regard. Personally, I view anyone as candidate for the recruit except maybe Rasei (?), which is why I'm... not trying to think too hard on it.

She-Ra wrote:"If I am the lynch please pressure lux" - Katagi. Gets to me. On the one hand it has the same tone as other maf lynch targets I've seen trying to spin a thing and cast suspicions. Lux analysis seems generally pro-town but is getting more agressive? Might just be because of general lack of discussion in this thread though.

For the most part, I ignore or pay little value to comments like that and focus on what people deliver, but I can see how it gets to you. Re: me being aggressive, I was. Very unhappy with the lack of discussion last phase to the point where I actually figured out a way to win/kill mafia through what has been called "cheating", but we will not go into that for the obvious reasons (might share post-game because tbh it is pretty clever, if I do say so). So, I am force-feeding discussion to this thread if I have to.

Thanks for the thoughts. I don't have anything for you right this moment other than any comments you have to my comments, or comments on other players. I'll think more on you.

I need to reread the thread. But at this second I want to think that Lux, Rasei, and Lucas are town. I'm mildly supstions of Katagi, Ezz, Tiny, and Aeiou. I'm a bit bit substions, She-ra, Sammy, Tiki. Depending on the rollover I will start out voting Katagi.

I think i'm out of discussion for this phase, i'm sorry everyone. i tried my best!!!

Okay

@katagi

katagi wrote:yes, I was waiting to see more discussion and to see if the votes swung any which way beforee deciding - and I became hesitant to votee dran due to suddenly it being the thing to do - why bother hopping on a bandwagon if its obviously 1) going to be successful and 2) a huge honking bandwagon, was my reasoning, if that makes sense!

Sounds fair, thanks.

@ezzelin

ezzelin wrote:Thread interaction and reaction reads consist primarily of katagi suspecting you, and I think you at some point also considering katagi? unsure about the latter; there would be no reason to bus if you were both mafia, as it would only serve to make katagi look suspicious; if you're both town, the timing doesn't quite make sense.
Furthermore, katagi now deciding to not be suspicious of you after all - either katagi is town and you're doing a great job as mafia, or you're town and katagi realised it will be impossible to push for a lynch on you and decided to not incriminate herself further by throwing shade on your spec.

Thank you, this is what I was looking for. I think there's a non-zero chance it could be the case of two town with weird timing, as you put it. I can see how from the perspective of others that I would look like a reasonable mafia convert or fake-out due to jail+kill on N2. My gut reaction was to be wary of katagi since I have seen this done before from mafia, but upon reasoning things out, either I'm wrong about the distribution of shots, or katagi is just a player that, whether as town or mafia, coincidentally got shot by a town, which I think is most likely.

This said, the last comment about katagi giving up the push on me is something I highly considered as probable. I also had a bit of a gut read on her earlier, but I try not to mistake her posting about the vigilantes on D1 as being... I mean it was strange, so I'm still not sure where to go with it, and katagi is kind of consistent in how she plays like this (though she's been mafia 2-3 times at least I think). Either way, this is kind of solidifying one of my reads and thoughts that at least one of you, katagi, and Lucas is mafia. Maybe two, but we'll see. There's a remote chance you might all be town, but hmm.

ezzelin wrote:I hardly call that "leading a lynch" when, if my memory servers right, it was a tie at two votes each with most players still have not voted, the second vote on sammiya was from dran to possibly counter the one on him, and moreover, her vote was "randomly selected poke". This is not sufficient for me to stop suspecting a player that I have more reads against.

I think the point was more that she started the vote on Sammiya and kept it there even when it might have been a lynch on her over drandahl, which is interesting. That said, she talked of swapping to drandahl, and it's easy for mafia to toss a one-off vote on one another (in the realm where Sammiya and katagi are mafia together) and let it sit. Either way, that answer was sufficient. Though I am curious, now.

If katagi and Sammiya are mafia, who would you suspect to be the others in this likely team? By your list, I'm guessing Tiny or Vowels? Those two are actually relatively high up there as likely mafia for me (more Tiny than Vowels, and I plan to do an actual assessment before rollover, which means I need to stop replying directly to people soon), which makes me want to watch you even more intently. Hmmm. With either proposed group of 3 (let's ignore conversion unless you want to include it), how would you process all votes on D2 and D3 under that light?

If Katagi and Sammiya are both Mafia, then I think maybe Lucas is the converted and Tiny or Vowels are mafia


Be back in 30 minutes

Rasei wrote:BUT IF I DO SOMETHING ELSE IT MIGHT MAKE USE LOOSE THE GAME AND I WANT HELP BUT ITS TO LATE AND AND AND>>> LUX YOU ARE TOWN RIGHT> YOU PROMISE ON YOUR FARM RIGHT?

I promise on all of my beans and parsnips and my farm, yes. Though this is giving horrible Symphonic Mafia flashbacks, I hope you are aware.

As far as doing the thing you keep mentioning.

I. Don't know.

I guess the theory is as long as you don't double-up with a maf shot (which you can't predict) (** or any town shots that might happen in the night, who knows), in theory you're... not hurting us too badly? A town should survive? Would a mafia? We don't actually know for certain, but presumably.

I don't want to say go for it because it can just lose the game if we're wrong at all, but. Do whatever you think is best, I suppose.

Obviously don't reply to this hinting target, effect, or role, since that can get you modkilled.

Rasei wrote:But at this second I want to think that Lux, Rasei, and Lucas are town. I'm mildly supstions of Katagi, Ezz, Tiny, and Aeiou. I'm a bit bit substions, She-ra, Sammy, Tiki. Depending on the rollover I will start out voting Katagi.

Rasei wrote:If Katagi and Sammiya are both Mafia, then I think maybe Lucas is the converted and Tiny or Vowels are mafia

So you said you were suspicious of ezz, but then dropped her in the second comment. Why is this? Are you mildly suspicious of katagi and ezz due to the comments shared between them? What's causing your suspicions on Tiny and Aeiou?

What do you think of Tiki vouching so heavily for you?

Okay, sorry for the frantic phase. I will say thank you for posting to those that did, regardless of alignment. It wasn't a perfect phase, and I don't expect 100% attendance from everyone because A) that's ridiculous B) you people have lives, unlike me and C) it's not necessary. But getting good speculation and discussion is necessary, and I think for once there was good back-and-forth which sets us up for as good of a day phase as we can manage, provided we haven't lost.

I have thirty minutes.

I started pushing this thread aggressively around 1:00 PM my time. Tiki started replying somewhat, She-Ra showed up not long after, and then katagi and ezzelin chimed in. This continued for a few hours until Tiny posted, followed by more of the same from others.

This is my cut-off. At about 5:45 PM my time, Tiny's post happened, and to me that is where I draw the line in terms of mafia having done something in the thread about "that goddamn town talking too much".

Tiki, She-Ra, katagi, ezzelin, Tiny.

I am inclined to think there's at least one, possibly two, mafia in that group of five by sheer logic. There's no sound guarantee to this. These could be all the remaining town along with myself, meaning mafia is then Rasei, Aeiou, Lucas, and Sammiya. Not impossible, but I feel it's... slightly unlikely that we've have a totally silent mafia, unless they know that they have already won, then yolo, game's already over.

Of those last four, only Rasei posted since then. Aeiou did post at the start of the phase, and Sammiya "posted" too. Lucas kind of went MIA, but I remember him saying he had something related to school or IRL? Aeiou is plagued with timezones, so. Silence could be innocuous.

Relations between one another this phase are interesting.

Tiki vouches heavily for Rasei. There's this big interplay between katagi and ezzelin, I think, with a number of people suspecting katagi. Lucas is viewed as pro-town, but with having questionable positions/targets in thread, and Tiny is slipping up on the mafia scale for several people. A few people have gone back and forth a little. There's some linkage between myself, katagi, and Aeiou in terms of possible gambits, recruits, and similar, as viewed by several people like She-Ra and ezz.

If I die, do not forget this phase happened. Re-read it.

I'm going to lift from drandahl:

drandahl wrote:* claimed after potential alignment flip

N0:

D1 - Votes:

N1 - Actions and claims:

D2 - Votes:

N2:

I filled in what info I could find. We won't know who Five or drandahl targeted.
N0
No one claimed the target on ezzelin, meaning it's Five or mafia lying.
Obviously, no one claimed Aeiou.
N1
Every action in theory has someone that claimed acting on that arget
N2
No one claimed acting on Five at all, so someone is lying.
Only one person claimed acting on Luxaria, so someone is lying.

I'm light on time to hyper-analyze the votes, but I will if I am alive after rollover. So if anyone else has to, please make sure you check D1, D2, and D3 votes and chart them out and whatever else.

I'm burnt out from posting all day while working on writing; I did not thoroughly back-read, again, nor get to analyze everything I wanted to. I think the discussion we got out of this night phase was worth it, however.

This is going to by my sheer gut / process-of-elimination reads.
In addition to what I said earlier, there's probably at least one mafia that never posted.

Thus, repeating:
Tiki, She-Ra, katagi, ezzelin, Tiny.

I am inclined to think there's at least one, possibly two, mafia in that group of five by sheer logic. There's no sound guarantee to this.

I think if I had to pick...

Without rollover info, most willing to lynch on D4
Tiny, katagi, Sammiya, (Lucas)
Probably willing to lynch
Aeiou, (Lucas)
Considering leave alone for now
She-Ra, ezzelin, (Lucas), Tiki, Rasei

I think at least one of katagi, ezzelin, and Lucas is mafia. Could be two. Could be none. It's not all three.
I think there's a reasonable to high chance of Tiny and/or Aeiou being mafia.
I think Sammiya is very questionable and is either mafia or a very busy town, and she should be probed.
I think I trust ezzelin most of that trio I highlighted; I think She-Ra is probably town, or more pro-town than anti-town. I think Rasei has a reasonable above 50% chance of being town, but not higher than 60%. I think Tiki has a chance of being town, but I'm not 100% sold on it yet.
Lucas is Lucas.

Good luck. Hope I live.

A very last second update on who I targeted, just in case:

• N0: Lux
  
• N1: Ezz
  
• N2: Rasei
  
• N3: Rasei