A TOTALLY AVERAGE MAFIA GAME

Tick tock.

Mr. Gerbear wrote:What Lux why am I most suspicious AGAIN I literally have done nothing. :( How am I most likely to kill Five :V

I tried to specify, but it's more that in terms of how I read the players, I just view Blaire as the possibly least likely, Tiki as a "maybe, but probably would", and that just left you and Aeiou as "I guess they might?"

It's obviously not conclusive. Rather, I'd rather try and find some way to stratify the players for the sake of creating discussion points. Anything is better than just floating question marks.

The advantage or disadvantage to NL or lynch depends on your read of the numbers game. So:

Ratio is 1:4:1 as I described via the information I received, making it 1:3:1 right now.

A) If we do not lynch, this means this night phase mafia has a 25% chance to hit the neutral. If they do not, they instead hit a town and make the ratio 1:2:1 on D2. At this point, there's only a 25% chance of lynching the correct player (though from town and neutral perspective, 33% chance--I don't know a better way of describing this). Lynching any other option results in defeat.

If mafia hit the neutral with the NK, that means D2 is 1:3. If you go for a lynch, that's still a 25% chance to be right (33% from town perspective). However, I'd argue if the neutral is killed during the night it's better to NL on D2 and let the game go to D3, so that way it's 1:2 and the ratio is 1:2 or 33% chance overall (50% chance from town perspective).

Or...

B) If we do lynch, right now we have a 20% chance of lynching the mafia (25% chance from each non-mafia perspective). If we lynch a town, then the ratio goes to 1:2:1. This means mafia has a 66% chance of winning the game on N1. If we lynch the neutral, then the ratio is 1:3 for N1 and will be 1:2 on D2, giving the best odds. Lynching the neutral is the same chance as lynching a mafia this phase.

...

So, the point is, which numbers game do you want to play? Option A of No Lynching this phase means we have a 25% chance vs 33% chance of the mafia hitting the neutral, in which case town can guarantee 1:2 ratio on D3. Lynching today has the lowest chance of lynching the mafia, and the highest chance of losing the game.

...

This is all ignoring several variables:

1) Whatever information we might get from the RNG mechanic might help town the more we can compile (on D2/D3 if we make it that far).
2) Mafia might have a read on who the neutral is and avoid them.
3) Neutral's cooperation is not guaranteed in any of this, and the neutral... presumably has a win condition. I don't know what that can be in a vanilla game like this other than maybe lasting to the end (which would be kind of cool as a 1:1:1 perfect balance thing). So I apologize to the neutral for basically talking about you as if you're just a statistical shield, but from a town perspective it's worth mentioning.

Anyway this is just my take on it. If I missed something or you disagree, let me know. I already accidentally wrote "1:5 D1" as a possibility earlier, so uh.

I'd ask Blaire or Tiki why they voted on me so quickly, but tbh I am not going to blame anyone since there's nothing to really go off of. Just bear in mind what I said above and make your decision.

Mostly, as you say, not much to go on, and for the reasons I stated in my vote post, flimsy as they may be.

So your logic in proceeding with this vote is from flimsy logic that you admit is born from not having much to go on? Rather than the objectively best course of action? What if you, as town, lose this 50/50 on D1 and then have to hope you win the 33% chance of not losing in the night? This seems objectively the best to you?

If you are town, we are going to have a serious discussion on how this works post-game. You still never answered my previous question, either.

I'm gonna

Vote: Tiki


What time is rollover again

Twenty minutes.

Rollover will be in 20 minutes.

As much as Tiki has been causing me a little concern, I'm sticking to my thought that NL is objectively the most logical and safest on D1 for now.

Idk, I don't think there's a neutral in this game or they would've revealed themselves on some level already, considering it's such a small game...... Hmm.

Ok let me see. If it's 1:4 right now, a mislynch today would lead to 1:2 by next day with a successful nk. A 1/3 chance of voting the mafia for a town win.

If it's 1:4 and we no lynch, we're at 1:3 by next day with a successful nk, a 1/4 chance at stopping the mafia. Another mislynch would lead to mafia win with 1:1 after another nk.

The best odds seem to be lynching someone this phase, no? Even with a mislynch, there's a better chance of voting the maf out next day?

Ten Minutes before rollover.

Mr. Gerbear wrote:Idk, I don't think there's a neutral in this game or they would've revealed themselves on some level already, considering it's such a small game...... Hmm.

The crux of your theory rests on whether this is true or not. The ratio was concealed. Inherently this suggests something is unusual since town has arguably less information than usual at game start for a completely vanilla game. I got this information N0 and it said there's a neutral. This fits in with the ratio being concealed.

But if you think the ratio is truly 1:5 start, then I can see the reasoning. I just want to point out that if you're going to entertain the possibility of 1:5, you can't ignore 1:4:1 in this context when we have some measure of evidence to support it. If you think I'm lying, then you can lynch me, but no one else has come forward with the hidden information. So if you don't think I'm lying, either I'm right and the ratio is 1:4:1, or my information is incorrect. If you think the information is incorrect, why would you think this given what we know? If you have a discernible reason, that's completely fair.

Your call, anyway.

The information explicitly said there was a neutral?

It said the starting ratio was 1 Mafia : 4 Town : 1 Neutral. Word-for-word. Also came with a warning about sharing information, thus why I was trying to see if anyone might say anything to make me shy away from sharing.*

* Edit: As in, like, if mafia thought they had to find someone, or neutral needed to stay hidden (which I am assuming they do if ratio was concealed and they haven't announced themselves, if my information is accurate). Etc. Anyway.

PHASE END