www.mafia: a UPick [town+katagi win]

yeah I know why you believe them stop hooting

Claims and stuff:

Cure wrote:I believe Pan's results.

So you know someone is a pet site, and you know hodor is mafia. How do you know hodor is mafia? Does it say the pet site person is town? Do you just get varying degrees of useful information?

I get roles and alignments, but not who they belong to. The petsite is town. I had some train of thought about not sharing what alignment the petsite was in case mafia tried to steal that roleclaim, but I'm not sure what the ultimate goal there was as my brain's a little fried from work.

EDIT: am i right in assuming you have a pet then, Raie?

OvO I'm not sure if I can say anything, but go ahead and read my last few posts, and then Lux's post quoting yours.


I think we have just discovered the role that caused the "do not claim your website" rule, everyone.

I mean Cure said she sent a thing out to me and that's why a stun didn't impede her. I'm guessing she has pets.

though the stun on her bugs me if we go with a maf!kiyo theory. Unless there was the belief Cure was bluffing a full-time stun or they worried over other JOAT actions, I feel a team with maf!kiyo wouldn't stun Cure last night?? but who knows.

I can see mafia thinking I was bluffing about not having another stun. I actually considered bluffing my role a little bit. They might have realized I was a JOAT and didn't want me to have any ability last night/wanted to play it safe in case I was lying about no more stuns.

double-post, but @ Pan

You get roles and alignments, or is it "role or alignment"? What do you have for petsite and hodor respectively? You've only said petsite is town and hodor is mafia. Unless you meant you get role names, not role abilities.

It seems to be websites and alignments.

Luxaria wrote:double-post, but @ Pan

You get roles and alignments, or is it "role or alignment"? What do you have for petsite and hodor respectively? You've only said petsite is town and hodor is mafia. Unless you meant you get role names, not role abilities.

For the petsite, my message was that someone was raising a pet, and how they raised it would determine what it could do, and that they were town.

For Hodor, I got a string of Hodor hodor hodor and then mafia.

So I guess I get the role-ish and alignment? or Kiyo just Hodors everything she touches.

Also I really need to sleep so I'm gonna crash now, probably won't be on much tomorrow since I have work 10-7 and if they catch me with my phone outside of breaks and lunch I will be immediately terminated lmfaooo.

I'll do what I can though.

5 town, 3 mafia 1 neutral

Town:
Sammiya
Pan
Cure

Mafia:
Kiyoko

Neutral:
Katagi

Remaining:
Luxaria
Aeiou
High Seraph
Mr. Alice



Luxaria did not kill tiki, and also was stunned N0. I'm willing to put her on the bottom of the suspect list for now.
Blaire killed Rasei the same day Rasei was NKed, so I'm willing to put her also on the bottom of the suspect list.

Unless one of Lux/Blaire is maf (or Pan is a maf detective taking us all on a wild ride), process of elimination would dictate that mafia is Kiyoko, Aeiou, and High Seraph.

If Pan is genuine and Kiyo is mafia, I highly think at least one of Lucas or Blaire is mafia. Not sure about both though, but if it's not both that only really leaves Aeiou unless I'm missing something.

That's kind of redundant since Pan is basically announcing 3 alignments if accurate, on top of confirmed Sammiya town, which only leaves so many alternatives. And katagi can't be bluffing mafia since... we saw her get a win condition, unless mafia has a fake intermission thing and the real neutral can't announce themself. But, no one has pushed on katagi, anyway, since I assume a neutral might care about that? Who knows.

but yeah.

My main worry is that if Pan is a bluffing mafia we have a high chance of losing from MYLO. Alignments are easy to claim as mafia, but pairing it with role info helps but mafia could have a role cop. hmmm. It does feel more genuine than not insofar though, but.

short version: it feels almost too easy in some ways.

I will say that Pan's information about my role is all 100% true. The fact that their ability is only every other night makes it incredibly plausible to me.


Also, I can't... really see mafia Pan coming up with the risky strategy to out all this information (especially if none of me, you, or kiyo are mafia, Lux... I don't really see anyone else suggesting something that has such potential to backfire)? It feels incredibly genuine to me (plus waiting until they got a hit on mafia to reveal their information). Also, lynching Kiyo is kind of the biggest lead we have at the moment, and if we mislynch today we lose tomorrow anyway, so we... really don't have anything to lose that we wouldn't lose already.

inc ramble, but
I said earlier I don't think it's likely for mafia to put both hypothetical maf!Lucas doctor claim out there and maf!Blaire claim. They were also both on the chopping block on the same day so tbh at that point if it's one or the other, it's easier to just cut your losses, isn't it? Unless you can push to get NL to be a thing. So it'd either be a disastrous "claim everything" on D1 and hope you don't get tripped up, or one was mafia and tried to get push off of them (or they're both town, but).

The tricky thing is also... Lucas has claimed un-countered doctor, but we've seen a jail (from unknown alignment) and a revive, on top of Sammiya's "hide" gift--does this feel like too much? Meanwhile Blaire appears to have a killing effect, which insofar doubles up only with Sammiya's laser guns. But that'd place two potential killing things and a revive on the side of town, which seems so swingy, though one could end up in mafia hands, and both can hit town instead of mafia. There's also the fact that if there ARE these two killing effects, and Cure's JOAT and whatever others (like Aeiou) might have don't have more kills for that matter, would it necessitate the above protective/supportive effects we've seen?

meanwhile Blaire did double-up on Rasei. That could be a bluff, but given ratio it's also not crazy to think mafia would hide their gun for longer. It also feels like a kind of Blaire thing to do, and Rasei dying after Kiyo got targeted might suggest they were worried of her being investigative, if Kiyo is mafia. But there's some clues/hints/results in thread and rollover that feel very weird for me in terms of what mafia has done, so.

rambles into space.

expanding on my point about none of me, you or kiyo being maf so i don't see the ploy happening:

If pan was mafia, the person they're clearing has to be town to gain that person's trust, so I can't be mafia with pan
If you were mafia with pan and helping engineer the whole thing, you'd be quick to support the idea and vote kiyo
if kiyo were mafia with pan, they would likely throw someone else under the bus. Unless kiyo's ability is very useless and the third mafia member is incredibly useful, it'd be much easier to set up a townie to fall so they could win the game next night phase.

the above eliminates the three of us from being mafia with pan if pan is a mafia detective, and I don't see any of the other players in the game crafting an unnecessarily elaborate ruse like this.

Cure wrote:Also, lynching Kiyo is kind of the biggest lead we have at the moment, and if we mislynch today we lose tomorrow anyway, so we... really don't have anything to lose that we wouldn't lose already.

Yeah I realize that. Which is why I want to evaluate this from each angle and see what others comment on and how to see if this is firm ground to follow. So I guess I'm waiting to see the other players offer thoughts.

I think it's slightly more likely for mafia to be kiyo, lucas, and vowels than kiyo, blaire, and lucas/vowels. Just because of the double up on rasei. I think kiyo is a safe first target and then we decide what to do about the remaining trifecta if she flips maf

(also note that kiyo has not posted since pan outed their results more plainly. she might have suddenly gotten busy, or could be writing a really long post, but there it is.)