New Beginnings [TOWN WIN]

Where'd you get that photo of her??? It's so cute!!!

Okay host is done derailing thread now. Good night everyone!

I'll address Alcasync's post before anything else.

So, when I submitted that post I realized how fishy it looked, between both the timing and the brevity. I originally had typed up my vote twenty minutes prior to the time the post went up, but I had a question for Kiyoko regarding how the voting tally works, and that took some time to answer (not her fault! I should've just posted, anyway). Namely, at the time of writing the tally was close to the four-way tie that Nautilus described in a previous post. Seeing as I was one of the people with a vote against me, obviously I did not wish to risk my life against RNG, especially since I was considering just no-voting it all evening. Proof of this can be found in asking at 5:46 PM PST if "no vote" would count for null or no lynch, to which Kiyoko responded not long after.

At the time I had "No Lynch" prepared, but I was still hoping for a reply from you, Alcasync, to my previous two questions, as well as to see how you would react to the changes to the vote tally in the last hour of the game. Considering you had been the ringleader for lynching someone for alignment information, I wanted to get a chance to gauge your reaction on the proceedings. In particular, you were the first to vote for anyone, and that person was Sammiya. When prompted about whether you had any convictions, you said:

Edit: Ohh to answer your question, Luxaria, I don't really have any convictions against Sammiya but I don't think anyone really has anything at this point. I don't think anyone has said anything suspicious so far? Umm but I'm not really comfortable changing my vote off Sammie because she also hasn't said anything to make me think she's town, if that makes sense! I think you and nautilus are asking questions and making arguments that sound kind of town-ish so I think maybe I don't want you guys to get lynched.

I guess I might change my vote to Megrid because I don't want Luxaria lynched yet but...! That's just a maybe.

I agree that Sammiya isn't feeling super towny, largely due to her comparatively low communication and general hesitance--the latter of which might be attributed to misunderstanding the vote change restrictions or lack thereof. But, between that post and rollover, there was never a response regarding whether you had decided to change to Megrid or not. I think at the time the standings were: Megrid, Luxaria, Rasei, and Sammiya all at one vote. I believe your intent was to save me from the RNG death by doubling up on Megrid, but prior to this the most you had mentioned of Megrid was that you expected him not to die N0 due to their previous N0 death, and that you expected to be killed over Megrid and Sammiya.

It's also curious to me that of the two options, you selected Megrid over Rasei, when Rasei had been more vague in reasoning. In fact, Rasei was the one to vote Megrid due to RNG--and you were entertaining backing  the vote at this time. Thus, to the question in your last post, I still would like you to answer the following:

But, one thing does have me curious. I would like to know the discrepancy between Alcasync's intention to try and force a tied lynch (which has great logic behind it!) for the sake of learning alignments, versus the statements of Megrid and Sammiya. Megrid is hesitant to vote for at least Sammiya, specifically, but also anyone else. Sammiya is wary of changing from No Lynch, though that might be due to thinking the votes were limited. In particular, Sammiya stated, "I'm wary of mislynching a town still."

So, my questions to all three of you are:
1. Do you agree with being wary of mislynching? Or do you like the idea of lynching tonight no matter what for the sake of alignment?
2. If you had to lock in a vote for a player right now, who would it be and why?

Anyway, this is getting very long. I haven't cleared anyone of suspicion yet, and I would like to be able to believe that you are town given your discussion and cooperation. To close, the question I asked Kiyoko was how the voting would go if it looked like either:

1 Sammiya, 1 Luxaria, 1 Megrid, 1 No Lynch, and a few no votes
and
2 Sammiya, 2 No Lynch, and a few no votes

I wasn't sure whether it a majority consensus had to be achieved (IE, we have 7 players, so the spread had to be at least 3:3:1 or 2:2:2:1), or if it would go by the majority in terms of actual votes towards players or no lynch, regardless of player numbers (IE, 1:1:1:1, 3 no votes, what happens?). Kiyoko clarified that the tally works off the option(s) in first place, with no votes not registering at all. When I learned this, a few new posts had come in, and so I didn't get a chance to properly address them before I posted my last minute No Lynch.

. . . So yes, it probably looks suspicious, but I want to be sure I can trust you before I allow your lynch targets to be taken out, if that makes sense. I trust you more than Sammiya right now, I think, but I hope you can understand my worries.

alcasync mentioned Mr. Alice, so I guess I'll comment on that! Rasei hasn't played any games here yet, but the latter has, and I guess I sort of read Mr. Alice's random vote as similar to their behavior in the previous game, where their behavior was one of general confusion and uncertainty. I ... saw the random vote but I guess I wasn't sure whether or not it was similar to what they did in the previous game (no voting, being confused over things)! It's really a case of me being unable to tease behavior from general scumminess, and I had no frame of reference for Rasei! So, that's a thing. I did wonder whether or not anyone was going to double that vote, though... And I do want to see some more contribution from both Mr. Alice and Sammiya!

I'll be pretty busy for the coming week since I have some life stuff I need to attend to, but um, I'm interested in what will happen in the coming day phase.

I also want to add to what I edited my vote post with (the two paragraphs about gut feelings)... I guess with respect to non-committal actions, one of the things that makes me uneasy about no lynches/no votes is that you're not actively voting anyone, and as such you're not directly pitted against another player (if the player you voted flips x, then you can be either clear or suspicious) and it's easy for mafia to say things like that and avoid attachment to other players that can be followed up on for evidence. But the issue is that it's hard to tease that away from genuinely being unsure of who to vote for, which I guess is my problem here, and why my gut feelings will just be gut feelings.

KIYOKO!!!!!

I actually think an RNG vote is more town! I've seen mafia pretend to RNG to vote for someone convenient, but Rasei's vote didn't seem like that. So to answer your question, I actually wasn't really suspicious of Rasei, so Megrid seemed like the better option.

To answer your other questions!

1. I'm not wary of mislynching at all. Lynching is the only way for town to kill mafia, and while I know successful D1 lynches are rare, it also helps narrow down who the mafia might be. I understand your logic that "mafia will kill someone anyway, and then we can see their alignment and use that for discussion," but the night kill target is controlled by the mafia whereas with lynches are not. Mafia will try to go after the players who are unlikely to get lynched anyway, so chances are that the people that mafia kill are not people anyone would have suspected of being mafia, whereas people that townies vote for are suspected of at least being less town than other people, which increases the chance of us lynching a mafia together.

Umm basically, a night kill is a guaranteed loss for town, a mislynch is not a guaranteed loss for town, and is actually a higher chance of hitting mafia since people are actively voting for people they think might be mafia.

2. Well since Sammiya never gave me a reason to unvote her I felt okay about leaving my vote on her. Now I'm more suspicious of her, so I will probably vote her again tomorrow.

Edit to add: I really, really agree with nautilus's post about no lynching/no voting meaning you're not "against" anyone so it's hard to get a read on who you suspect.

Yesterday I spent half of the day out with my parents at a aquarium and only had my phone which has tiny keys that are extremely difficult to type with, and had some other stuff come up when I did get home, which is part of why I was so quiet. I also saw no point in repeating in what everyone else was already saying, either, since that'd be parroting and be suspicious as well and  I've seen people suspected of being mafia in the past. I had nothing new to contribute to the conversation, so there was no point to it in my opinion and mind.

And, like I said, quite a bit of my hesitance had come from getting confused and thinking that there was only one vote change, but I hadn't felt comfortable switching.

I honestly thought Mr Alice's vote was a vote to generate conversation or something so I didn't think much of it, much like I didn't think much of you voting for me.

I disagree with voting against people without solid reasons to do so, however. Mislynching in smaller games are worse in my opinion since there's such a small amount of town in comparison, and there's never much to go on for D1. And I also disagree with RNG lynches, since there is literally no way to defend yourself against them, and if Rasei hadn't taken hers off of Megrid I probably would've voted her just because she RNGd it.

Thank you for answering my questions, Alca! I posed them because I noticed both yourself, Megrid, and Sammiya all giving different opinions from one another regarding your desire to lynch or not, so I wanted concrete statements for comparison. I target the three of you specifically because you have experience, and so I wanted to know what all of you thought about the situation. I've been outspoken about my hesitance to lynch. If it were a larger game, I think I'd be a lot more accepting of the risk of mislynch on D1. Or if we had been talking more. It was apparent that Sammiya seemed preoccupied (which was just confirmed), as well as confused about the voting (which, while understandable, can be interpretted as suspicious). Additionally, Mr. Alice has been wishy-washy, Rasei resorted to RNG, and Megrid wanted more information.

For the record, I agree with Nautilus' point, too, about people committing to reads and votes as being a good way to establish information. Mafia can hide with wishy washy answers, which in this case prevents us from being able to target anyone on day one if half the players want more information as a result. Myself, Megrid, Sammiya, and Rasei all professed to wanting more information from other players. Mr. Alice is a bit of a wildcard/outlier in all of this. But, as Nautilus points out, there's a mix of experience and inexperience, and we have little reference beyond the single archived game. It's difficult for us to successfully feel out the playstyles and methods used by other players just yet (which is something Alcasync brought up as a reason why she thought she would die first). Right now, would someone's tells and lack of discussion be linked to inexperience, being rusty, being busy, or trying to hide being mafia?

This starts to delve a bit into the mindgame component, but... There's also another aspect to all of this. What does mafia do during the day? It seems to me that any plan of attack could work, depending on the context of the game itself. Maybe the mafia spearheads a lynching--but doesn't that draw attention to themself? Ah, but that's precisely why a mafia would not do that, right? Except since we think that they won't, or because players are new, maybe they're trying to hide in plain sight with such a tactic? Maybe not, however!

I could go on and on, but the point is: What makes an RNG vote seem definitively town? We started the day with randomly selecting players (Sammiya and myself), and then Rasei picked Megrid due to RNG. Why couldn't Rasei have deliberately picked Megrid, but dressed it up as RNG? Would that not be a fairly convincing mafia tactic to appear active without actually having convictions towards another player?

Since we all keep saying we want definitive information and attachments, I'd like to ask you all some direct questions:

For Nautilus
Earlier, you said you would vote for Rasei, but you didn't wish to encourage a four-way tie. If you had to pick between Sammiya and Rasei and you were the final vote, which player would you pick to lynch and why? Then pit that player against Mr. Alice. Which would you vote to lynch?

For Mr. Alice
In your posts you've been a little inconsistent and uncertain. Across three posts, you stated that you did not wish to mislynch, but that you also thought it was worth the risk. In that case, why wouldn't you change your vote to Sammiya, which had the distrust of two players that had been pushing discussion in a town-like fashion?

For Alcasync
You stated earlier that you are not sure why people are suspicious of Rasei and not Mr. Alice for RNG votes. If you had to lynch either Mr. Alice or Rasei, which would you lynch? Additionally, which three players do you most consider to be town?

For Megrid
You and Alcasync are two of the veterans, but you both have approached the situation entirely differently, to the point where you noted that you find Alcasync to be "curious". If you had to lynch either Alcasync or myself, which would you lynch? Whichever player lives, would you rather lynch them or Sammiya?

For Sammiya
Alcasync pointed out how I effectively prevented you from being lynched at the last minute, which has now led to Alcasync planning to vote for you next day phase. Do you expect Nautilus to follow Alcasync's vote again? How about the other players, too?

For Rasei
You did an RNG vote for Megrid to gauge reactions, and later Alcasync considered backing it. If Alcasync had backed it, would you have still changed your vote to no vote? And why didn't you vote for Mr. Alice in the end, after considering it?

Luxaria, everyone has their own playstyles and values. Some people think risking the life of a town is worth it if it will help us find a mafia, and some people think that a townie dying is always bad no matter what. I think I once played a game where I was mafia, and nobody discussed anything, and everyone just kept voting NL or NV, and so my mafia team ended up just killing town one by one and town had no guesses as to who the mafia because they just weren't talking about it and weren't gaining any information from the day phases. Because of that game, I always try to vote and generate discussion when I'm town, to avoid that kind of situation.

As for what makes an RNG vote seem town, nothing, really. There's also nothing that makes it seem mafia. Sometimes gut feeling is okay to base your votes on, especially when it's D1 and there's not much information yet.

I think I can answer your question in a more complete way by just posting my list of least to most suspicious:

Most town

nautilus
Mr Alice
Luxaria/Rasei/Megrid
Sammiya

Least town

I'm pretty sure I already explained most of these, and for the rest, the answer is just, "I'm getting town/maf vibes from their posts" and I probably can't point out any specific facts. I'm not a very analytical person so I'm not good at gathering evidence. I write long-ish posts but it's mostly based off my emotions.

I was wondering about the last minute vote from you but figured that you had either had something come up that prevented you from voting until the last minute or had gotten confused about roll-over, but your explanation made it far clearer.

To be honest, I imagine that nautilus possibly will vote for me for the sake of lynching someone and feeling like Alca's word is stronger due to her performance in the previous mafia game. I honestly don't know for the other players in the long run.

Nautilus does feel rather townish, and you feel like you might be town. How alca is acting is consistent in other games I've played with her (albeit with her being far ore aggressive then I remember) in which she was town (on a different forum).

Rasei I've never played with, so can't say much about her, same with Mr Alice.  And with Megrid the format of the mafia game was completely different (Town of Salem). And one game of reading through really can't give me much about Mr Alice in general.

I imagine voting will depend on what happens in the NK, in the long run.

Forgive me if I'm missing out on addressing much, but we had a heat wave over here since yesterday and I unfortunately have a weakness to heat. orz I see a direct question my way, but if I miss out on anything else, lemme know.

Luxaria wrote:You and Alcasync are two of the veterans, but you both have approached the situation entirely differently, to the point where you noted that you find Alcasync to be "curious". If you had to lynch either Alcasync or myself, which would you lynch? Whichever player lives, would you rather lynch them or Sammiya?

You're right, we both have different approaches, and I'm also gonna guess part of that is because both of us played the game in much different ways. I'm guessing Alcasync had the most experience from games like this (though I'm not going to fully speak for her, that's my guess), but like Sammiya said, I've had more experience with a different game (Town of Salem). I hadn't really played with her in games prior to the ones in CryWolf, but I guess what made her "curious" to me was how quick she was go hone in on Sammiya right out the gate and how assertive she was of it all. Random lynching isn't new to me, granted, but unless they were an executioner making a rush to their target, I'm wondering why Alcasync is so heavily focused on Sammiya when it all began with:

alcasync wrote:I'm clearly not a detective because the only power role in this game is doctor, so there's no special reasoning behind my vote, but someone needs to be the first to vote so...!

vote: Sammiya

B-because you're the only person here that I've played more than one game with. ;v;

How did we go from "I'm voting you because someone needs to be voted first and you're the only one I've played more than one game with" to "It's my gut feeling and intuition Sammiya isn't very town"? I think that's where I got lost, but then again my brain's kind of cooking right now with this heat. orz

As for your question, I think it's hard to answer on Sammiya because I knew she was going to go out to the aquarium trip, but didn't know when she'd be back. Before I thought to bring it up, she posted on her phone and I thought "welp, that's that then". For now, because she hadn't been around to really see or hear from the whole day, I was willing to forgive that cuz, well, it couldn't be helped any more than me rushing at the last minute before I had to go. That doesn't mean I'd be hesitant to vote her for the whole game, but for that first day, it couldn't really be helped.

Between the two of you, while I wouldn't say Alcasync is most definitely mafia, I think I might be inclined to vote her over you if I had to, mostly because of her focus on Sammiya. I feel like it started about as random as when Mr. Alice voted you and Rasei voted me, but I'm still not quite understanding why the focus on Sammiya is different from those two instances as to remain constant.

Course, I'm a bit slow to think right now and also a bit rusty, so it might be super obvious for all I know and I'm just having it fly over my head. orz

Yes, I can answer that!

I wasn't really suspicious of Sammiya at all until the last-minute no lynch votes. In the middle of the phase, I mentioned being willing to change my vote off Sammiya in order to save Luxaria, who I thought at the time was more likely to be town. I think I said this in one of my other posts, but when the last-minute no lynch happened, it seemed to me like it was a way for Luxaria to save her mafia teammate Sammiya.

Luxaria and Sammiya are now my primary suspicions, though my opinion has been flipping back and forth on Luxaria, and so I would be more willing to lynch Sammiya at this point, in order to get information about nautilus (who voted for Sammiya, bringing it up to a tie I think) and Luxaria (whose vote saved Sammiya). If Sammiya flips mafia then I think Luxaria is more likely to be mafia, and if Sammiya flips town then I think nautilus is more likely to be mafia.

The reason I have Luxaria/Rasei/Megrid all on the same level in my suspicions ranking is because I don't really know what to think about any of the three at this moment. I have a lot of contradictory thoughts and I haven't quite sorted them out yet. Luxaria sometimes I think is town and sometimes I think is maf, Rasei I thought at first was town but am rethinking it after everyone's comments about her, and Megrid I haven't really found much to form an opinion around yet.

It hot...hel . .. p . .... cr ie s. ... .

Question s . ... .can ans wer.. ... ..

Luxaria wrote:For Mr. Alice
In your posts you've been a little inconsistent and uncertain. Across three posts, you stated that you did not wish to mislynch, but that you also thought it was worth the risk. In that case, why wouldn't you change your vote to Sammiya, which had the distrust of two players that had been pushing discussion in a town-like fashion?

there are thin gs we wa nt, but c an't always have . . ..never wanna mislynch....but ya gotta do something....be the her o gotham nee ds.... . dint' even realize sammich was being super mistrust ed. ..ops
by the  ti me i realize d majoriyt was gonna no lunch it was too late to rea lly change my vote AND give yall a nice preety explantion fo rit

sob this gra mmar
fix later
hot now

Heads up, I'm out at an ingress thing again tonight. I've prewritten rollover so it'll still be on time but I prolly won't update anything or post vote tallies until I get back closer to midnight PST.

Processing the other posts (and thanks for answering, everyone <3!), but while I do so, and since you seem to be here, a question for you, Mr. Alice!

Mr. Alice wrote:dint' even realize sammich was being super mistrust ed. ..ops by the  ti me i realize d majoriyt was gonna no lunch it was too late to rea lly change my vote AND give yall a nice preety explantion fo rit

This interests me. You didn't realize that Sammiya was suspected by a few players (namely Alcasync and Nautilus), but you mention wanting to change your vote upon realizing there wouldn't be a lynch? Which player would you have voted for?

Sorry for interrogating you when it's sweltering out! :c