I'm fairly certain the mafia pair is Megrid and Sammiya. The phrasing of Megrid's post seems defensive of Sammiya, and the way Luxaria was killed after I made my post seems a little too convenient. Let me elaborate further.
Megrid wrote:I hadn't really played with her in games prior to the ones in CryWolf, but I guess what made her "curious" to me was how quick she was go hone in on Sammiya right out the gate and how assertive she was of it all. ... I'm wondering why Alcasync is so heavily focused on Sammiya when it all began with ... Between the two of you, while I wouldn't say Alcasync is most definitely mafia, I think I might be inclined to vote her over you if I had to, mostly because of her focus on Sammiya.
I thought I was fairly clear that I wasn't suspicious of Sammiya at all until after the no lynch rushed votes at the end. Maybe I'm just really bad at communicating. Either way, I did explain my reasoning again so I'm not going to go over it here. I just find it interesting how Megrid focuses so much on my vote for Sammiya as "curious" when I did the exact same thing in the last game and I was town so I don't really think there's anything too curious about it.
Part of this reads a little to me like Megrid is just a bit too defensive of Sammiya. She's using phrases like "hones in," "assertive" and "heavily focused" as if I have been tunneling Sammiya all phase, when really I only voiced my suspicions after the day phase ended, and the way I phrased it was,
alcasync wrote:the timing of the votes makes me suspicious enough to side-eye Sammiya and Luxaria a bit.
which isn't really "heavily focused" in my opinion at all?
I've defended nautilus and Mr. Alice and Rasei in this game so far, but I've also provided reasonings (albeit not very solid ones) about what I thought about them. Megrid is defending Sammiya, but isn't explaining why she thinks Sammiya deserves to be defended. If Megrid thought Sammiya was town and also explained why she thinks Sammiya is town, then I would accept being suspicious of me for casting suspicion on Sammiya, but without that explanation it seems more like mafia defending a mafia teammate to me, than a town defending someone they think is town.
To continue!
Megrid wrote:I'm still not quite understanding why the focus on Sammiya is different from those two instances as to remain constant.
I didn't think much about this at the time, but in light of this:
alcasync wrote:I would be more willing to lynch Sammiya at this point, in order to get information about nautilus (who voted for Sammiya, bringing it up to a tie I think) and Luxaria (whose vote saved Sammiya). If Sammiya flips mafia then I think Luxaria is more likely to be mafia, and if Sammiya flips town then I think nautilus is more likely to be mafia.
In this post, I say that I want to lynch Sammiya because I think Sammiya and Luxaria might be a mafia pair.
Kiyoko wrote:LUXARIA was killed. She was TOWN.
And then Luxaria was killed. So let's think about this.
Let's say Sammiya is town, Luxaria is town and nautilus is town. By leaving Sammiya, Luxaria, and nautilus all alive, Mafia could stall for a phase by not killing any of these three, and then I would likely suggest we lynch Sammiya and then a townie would get mislynched and mafia would win.
Let's say Sammiya is town, Luxaria is town, and nautilus is mafia. Killing Luxaria would cast suspicion on nautilus, which is not productive for mafia.
Let's say Sammiya is mafia, Luxaria is town, and nautilus is town. Killing Luxaria might save Sammiya from being targeted for a lynch the next phase, in hopes that Luxaria flipping town would resolve the situation I posted earlier and take pressure off Sammiya by removing incentive to lynch her (um what I mean is that the incentive to lynch Sammiya was the information, and mafia is giving us that information by killing Luxaria). I think this is the most likely scenario.
I don't think both Sammiya and nautilus are mafia because nautilus almost got Sammiya lynched, so I will rule that out.
Now let's think about Megrid's post again.
Megrid wrote:I'm still not quite understanding why the focus on Sammiya is different from those two instances as to remain constant.
This, I think, is Megrid asking me to explain my suspicions on Sammiya. Which means that if mafia did in fact kill Luxaria because of the Luxaria/Sammiya/nautilus information thing I discussed, then it seems rather convenient that the night kill on Luxaria might make Sammiya look innocent after a question from Megrid that prompted this entire discussion in the first place. This is weak evidence of Megrid's involvement because in any other situation I would think Megrid is just a town asking a question to try to understand other players' reasonings, except that Megrid defended Sammiya so much in her post.
I hope that's clear. My thoughts are kind of jumbled right now.
I don't even want to know how long this post is, I think it took me over an hour to write...
In short, due to Megrid's defense of Sammiya despite giving no reasoning why she thinks Sammiya might be town, I think Megrid is buddying Sammiya. Additionally, the night kill doesn't make sense if Sammiya is town because by leaving Luxaria, nautilus and Sammiya alive, mafia could stall for a day phase by having me push a mislynch on Sammiya.
Also, adding briefly that Sammiya and Megrid were the only ones aside from Luxaria not to vote for any other player at all, which is a fairly common mafia tactic for trying to lay low. drandahl did the same in the last game. Again, this is not very strong evidence and normally I would dismiss it, but in light of everything else it kind of strengthens my suspicions.
As a result,
vote: Megrid but I will happily change this to Sammiya if the rest of the thread leans that way as well.
Edit: I would like to clarify that despite this really long post with all these quotes and stuff, I'm not trying to push a lynch. I just wanted to make it very clear why I'm voting the way I'm voting since this is something I truly believe is the case. Everyone else should definitely feel free to vote whoever they suspect.
I have a feeling I will become a lynch target because of how assertive I am being here, but I stand by my suspicions.
And if anyone has any questions for me I will answer tomorrow. It's way past my bedtime. This post took longer than i thought it would!