“So, you have an experiment, right?” Carlos said. “And as part of that experiment you come up with a hypothesis, and then you run the experiment, and then science tells you yes or no. That's, scientifically speaking, how science works.”
And just like that, everything Carlos had been saying for the past few hours or minutes all made sense.
“Thank you, Carlos,” Sayaka said in a rush, preempting him from starting on another of his wayward monologues. “Can I look at that paper?”
Sayaka leaned over Carlos and got a glance at the Totally-Not-A-Cluedo-Sheet.
“Hmm,” Sayaka wondered aloud. “There's some interesting information hidden in your notes.
“From Cecil's Intern Wilbur, we know for a fact that Amumu was the one that prevented Amethyst from moving at all last night. We do not know what Amethyst would have done if Amumu had not intervened, however we do know that Amumu could not have possibly gone near Kyouko.”
Sayaka chewed her lip.
“I did wonder at first if there... Carlos, I know this is a bit of a scientific leap, but I did think that there was a chance that Amumu and someone else might be... let's call them feather-deniers. There's some weird tensions down in that group, and the actions of last night say to me that someone clearly does not want us to locate this feather—which makes sense, since it is so powerful.”
Sayaka tore her gaze from the paper to look at Amumu, then to Amethyst, then back to the paper.
“I wondered if it might have been possible that Amumu and Amethyst had a secret alliance. In other words, I thought they might incapacitate Amethyst so no one would suspect her while Amumu went to attack someone else that they, as deniers, had chosen together.. but we know that Amumu could not have gone near Kyouko.
“This brings up another possibility,” Sayaka said. “What if there are people in the group that aren't feather-deniers... but they are suspicious of their existence like we are. And... and what if these people can attack, even kill others of our group?
“One of them might have attacked Kyouko.”
Sayaka shook her head.
“Soren's very statement,” and Sayaka pointed at his name on the Not-A-Cluedo, “says that he has an ability that can do just this: Kill anyone he wants. What's to say that others do not have this ability? Someone might have attacked Kyouko instead of a denier... but if that's the case...
“Then Amethyst has to be a denier.”
Sayaka clapped her hands together.
“I refuse to believe that the deniers would waste any opportunity to thin our numbers discretely. I see two possibilities, Carlos,” Sayaka said with excitement. “Either we have Amethyst and probably someone else working together to thwart our search for the feather, and someone that wasn't a denier tried to attack Kyouko, or Amethyst is not a denier and the real deniers are still at large.”
Sayaka started pacing, sweat on her brow.
“Carlos, this means several things for us. I originally asked about whether or not you could determine—through science, of course—how many other people within the group could attack, even kill another person. But there may be another way: A thought experiment.
“We ask the others of the group whether or not any of them attacked Kyouko. Should someone come forward, Amethyst is thus framed as a denier, because otherwise how else would there be only one person attacked earlier? Amethyst was stunned. There's the possibility of a denier saying that they did the attack as someone that isn't a denier in an attempt to frame Amethyst, but that is unnecessary,” Sayaka concluded.
“If someone that wasn't a denier had attacked Kyouko, they would have said so already, because then we'd known both they, Amumu, and Kyouko were innocent, and Amethyst was a denier. But... no one did, and so this can mean only one thing...
“A denier attacked Kyouko.”
“Amumu could not have done it. Amethyst could not have done it. I would say it's safe to assume Kyouko would not have done it...”
Sayaka took a deep breath.
“And I could not have done it. I cannot hurt Kyouko."
“That means the deniers can be several people... Soren, Luke, or...”
Sayaka looked at Cecil, and then Carlos.
“Cecil.”
Sayaka took a step forward towards Carlos and handed him back the sheet.
“This is a bold plan, and I may be missing some variables. I'll allow for that, Carlos, but do you remember my sword? My science sword?”
Sayaka pulled it free of the confines of her cloak. It glimmered in the light.
“I will use this sword to kill Cecil unless you prove his innocence to me, be it either your experiment or one of my suggestion. I know that science takes time, so in the meanwhile I will turn my efforts to seeing that Soren or Luke is evicted from the group. The deniers lurk in that group of three, Carlos, and I hope your Cecil is not one of them.”
((Okay. I said a lot of things here. Let me break it down:
Because no vigilante stepped forward to reveal that they were the ones that attacked Kyouko, it instantly clears Kyouko, Amethyst, and Amumu of being mafia. I can run through the logic again and it explain it if anyone wants to see it better or try and poke holes, but basically:
1. There was only one attack.
2. Amethyst did not do this attack, nor did Amumu.
3. The pairing cannot be Amumu/Amethyst, Amumu/Kyouko, or Amethyst/Kyouko.
4. If either Kyouko or Amethyst were mafia, then they would have had an attack of their own, except Amethyst got stunned. This means that a vigilante would've tried to shoot Kyouko. But since NO ONE stepped forward IMMEDIATELY to reveal that they attacked Kyouko, that instantly clears those three.
5. I did not and cannot attack Kyouko. You have no reason to believe me, but it's the truth.
6. This leaves Soren, Luke, and Cecil. Carlos can run a test to prove Cecil's innocence, but he may very well lie to us.
7. Even if there is no save tonight, or Soren is mafia and actually has that kill-all ability, or we mislynch, we're still at a numbers advantage, and the multiple deaths will help you to narrow down which of those three targets are mafia.
8. Those three targets might have any number of roles I might not be accounting for. They could be lynchproof, bulletproof, or both. They could have a revenge role—Carlos might even have one as well. In fact, Carlos might be a vigilante and attacked Kyouko. This is a very real possibility, however unlikely, but it's the one variable that could mean everything I just said is wrong. He might have attacked Kyouko. There's also a chance Amethyst might still be able to attack while stunned. I don't know what roles Alca has engineered for this game.
9. I'm basically going all-in by revealing my ability and I run a very real chance of just mislynching, dying outright, or screwing the whole group. I take full responsibility.
10. Basically, we know who four town are out of three. We can claim our abilities and combine them to win this game in a phase or two. For now, I am doing a Vote: Soren just to push the phase, but I am willing to switch it to Luke if we think that is best. I think our lynches have to be concentrated on those three.
11. Also, you can probably just assume the important bits of my speech were caught by the radio tower's microphone, if you're concerned about IC excuses.
12. Lastly, sorry for this mega post. Please, if anyone sees faults in my logic or analysis, let me know. I could very well be missing something. ))