Exhaustion tugged at Sayaka's shoulders and eyes. It took all of her strength to stay alert, but she'd need to maintain vigilance throughout the night. At Kyouko's words, she nodded, taking a long look at the girl and the way the starlight ignited her hair with a faint glow, outlining the fiery reds with soft pinks. Sayaka did not know if she would see her again soon. Somehow, as she looked up at the everlasting night, she felt as if she had been on this precipice... forever.
Returning to her chambers, she worked long and hard into the night, compiling her thoughts onto paper.
((Okay, I did this in my New Beginnings thread, and I felt like replicating it here with a little more organization. This was long overdue, actually. Unlike New Beginnings, I do not actually think that I am about to die in the night. It would take a few prominent roles to actually take me out, and I believe doing so would implicate them pretty substantially. That said, to whatever end, these are my notes on every possible pairing not including myself and Carlos, as well as my most likely candidates, and a few extra notes. I'll enclose them properly to be more readable. Interpret and use them as you will. If they're at all helpful, I'll be glad.
Important Messages- To Luke:
If you can see Amumu's abilities and he can actually kill someone, please let us know. Also, can you clarify OOC how this interaction went down?
- To Amumu:
If you can see Luke's abilities, how does Guardian Field read? Does it only protect people of Luke's alignment? How does his other attack work? Can he control it or is it revenge-related? If it's revenge-related, is it actually off of the first kill in the game like he claims?
- To Kyouko:
I love you.
- Mafia Pairings Analysis:
Amethyst/Kyouko: Amethyst was stunned when Kyouko was attacked. Kyouko would have to attack herself, but I saved Kyouko, and she claims to no passive defense. Very unlikely pairing.
Amethyst/Soren: Minimal interaction. Not much speculation towards one another, just IC banter about transformations (mild Soren defense for Amethyst following Sayaka's witch-hunt vote).
Amethyst/Amumu: Amumu stunned Amethyst. They seem to be mutually okay with this situation. Amumu seems to want to cooperate with Amethyst. Amumu could not have attacked after stunning. Amethyst might have an ability to get out of stuns.
Amethyst/Luke: Minimal interaction. Luke only says that Amethyst looks ready to attack someone else IC.
Amethyst/Cecil: Next to no interaction. Cecil passes over Amethyst in speculation, unless she can attack while stunned.
Kyouko/Soren: Minimal interaction. Soren is very firm in the fact that if he had attacked Kyouko, she would be dead. Soren also thinks Kyouko is probably a vigilante.
Kyouko/Amumu: Overall very friendly. Amumu could not have attacked Kyouko without being tracked. Kyouko could have attacked herself, but only if she used her active defense. Very unlikely.
Kyouko/Luke: Luke claims to maybe possibly uncertainly in a strange coincidence to have saved Kyouko somehow (Sayaka actually cast a save, but Luke may have as well?). Kyouko voted for Luke after others had and seemed suspicious. Not much direct speculation between the two.
Kyouko/Cecil: Kyouko found Cecil a little suspicious. Cecil found Kyouko revealing being protected to be odd. Sort of mutual suspicions and questioning of motives.
Soren/Amumu: Amumu blindly voted Soren, thinking Soren was with Amethyst. Very staunch in maintaining this vote and distrust of Soren. Soren repeatedly defends himself. Next day, Soren views Amumu as cleared of all suspicion due to stunning Amethyst. Amumu kept his vote on Soren the entire time.
Soren/Luke: Luke was the second to vote Soren, while Soren was the first to vote Luke. Soren was very annoyed with Luke and suspicious of why Luke wasn't the one to attack Kyouko. Soren immediately points out Luke is the only one that could attack Kyouko. Later, Soren thinks Luke protected Kyouko. No longer thinks Luke can attack people. Luke was very suspicious of Soren for weak IC reasons. Luke still really wants to get rid of Soren.
Soren/Cecil: Early on suggests that Cecil could not have attacked Kyouko (why is this?), but later says it's because Cecil is more likely to spy than assault. Cecil seems to trust Soren, or at least the timing with which Soren came clean on his ability.
Amumu/Luke: Starts off friendly, very friendly. Amumu never considers Luke for a second. Luke is the same way. Then the whole pledge of friendship thing happens. Not detected by Cecil, but then it might not have shown up due to the timing (note: I don't trust anything Carlos says past the omelet incident. Everything he says is probably a lie). Their backing of one another is both suspicious and not, depending on how you parse it. I stated before that Luke's abilities seem very suspect. He's very inconsistent, but this might be out of self-defense. He also doesn't seem to know how they work or when they do? Might be IC confusion. Amumu also seems a bit uncertain, despite apparently having somehow seen the abilities. But Amumu also seems to suggest that even he's not truly sure if Luke protected Kyouko. It's a very dangerous and obvious line to make. If Luke false-claimed doctor as mafia and relied on Amumu, potentially another mafia, to back him in an attempt to draw the doctor out... then the moment the doctor is killed, Luke and Amumu are suspect. Amumu can't stun the doctor (read: me) without looking very suspicious, after being declared very town by pretty much everyone.
So then this gets complicated. Let's say they're telling the truth. If they're both town, great, complete trust for one another, everything makes sense, roll credits. If they're both mafia, well I've already highlighted the problems. Now... If Luke is mafia, well, admittedly we don't know the full extent to which this sharing goes. We don't know if only Amumu saw Luke's abilities, or if Luke also got to see Amumu's. We don't know if it was consensual (woah) or not, as if Luke could deny Amumu's friendship. They've IC made it sound like it's consensual and a two-way street. But, if Amumu saw Luke's abilities and confirms they're there and Amumu is town, then Luke has to be town, because otherwise those abilities just wouldn't exist on a mafia. It makes no sense, unless Amumu is reading them incorrectly. But if Amumu was mafia and Luke saw Amumu's abilities, he might not be able to tell that Amumu is mafia. It also calls to question why Amumu didn't try to attack Luke right away if he saw these abilities, perhaps with a stun--but then, if we go by he-who-cannot-be-trusted, then it suggests that Amumu only learned of these abilities after the phase was over. Note that nothing is suggested between the two of Amumu having an ability to kill, which he-who-cannot-be-trusted used to defend Cecil with the "Science" experiment. If Luke saw that, he would've mentioned something or found Amumu suspicious by now, if Luke was truly town as this suggests.
The points I'm getting at: Either we have Amumu/Luke in a very, very blatantly obvious and unlikely mafia pairing, Amumu is mafia and he-who-cannot-be-trusted is lying, in which case Cecil could be the other mafia, or neither are mafia.
Amumu/Cecil: As mentioned above, if Amumu is mafia, then he-who-cannot-be-trusted is lying, unless Luke and Amumu neglected to inform us of Amumu's ability to attack anyone. If they didn't, that's kind of suspicious for both. Either way, Amumu was a little suspicious of Cecil. Cecil chose to track Amumu night one. This could be a good ploy to make one of them look innocent, while Cecil attacked Kyouko.
Luke/Cecil: Cecil's only vote this game has been for Luke as part of a bandwagon to push the phase, after Luke voted for himself. Luke mentions Cecil only once, really, saying that Cecil might be attacking people and that he-who-shall-not-be-trusted vouched well enough for him. But Cecil points out that Luke is suspicious with the self-vote. Says that proving innocence via mislynch doesn't help non-mafia, especially if Luke isn't providing speculation.
- Additional Notes:
Additional:
Both Amumu and Luke make mention of the fact that Luke's Guardian Field only seems to help people of Luke's alignment. Hmmm. Amumu might see that and misconstrue it to mean it helps town, but it's actually only for helping mafia. The revenge kill ability seems a bit off, but we don't know much about it. If it works anything like what Luke described in the three different versions of it, we'll have an answer soon enough if a kill goes through tonight.
If Soren's attack works as he says, it IS a good ability for mafia to have in a bulletproof heavy game.
Amethyst has been the queen of silence all game long. She has provided no speculation, input, or anything other than to suggest that all she can do is attack. She also only voted for no lynch when it was a majority at that point.
Kyouko feels town all things considered. Hard to peg her as mafia without knowing the other mafia, since no pairings really stand out right now. Revisit her pairings when new information comes to light.
Cecil is problematic. His ability is very un-mafia, but he-who-cannot-be-trusted shall not be trusted to defend Cecil. Cecil has been rather aloof, probably due to traveling IRL.
- Voting Pattern Analysis:
As for voting patterns, Amumu went right for Soren and never relented, which would be unlikely for mafia, since Soren nearly bit the dust. Amumu seemed to trust Luke due to the abilities he saw. Luke might've suicided to prove/feign innocence, and if Amumu misunderstands Luke's abilities... Cecil and Kyouko were last to vote on Luke. The only ones not to vote on Luke were Amethyst and Amumu.
Kiyoko: No vote
Sayaka: Amethyst
Amumu: No lynch
Luke: No lynch
Sayaka: No lynch
Kiyoko: No lynch
Amethyst: No lynch
Kyouko: No lynch
Amethyst was stunned. Kyouko was targeted for a kill, but it failed. Amumu visited Amethyst.
Amumu: Soren
Luke: Soren
Sayaka: Soren
Soren: Luke
Sayaka: Luke
Luke: Luke
Cecil: Luke
Kyouko: Luke
Likely pairings in no particular order:Amethyst/SorenAmethyst/Amumu ONLY IF AMETHYST CAN ATTACK WHILE STUNNED.
Amethyst/LukeAmethyst/Cecil(No current Kyouko pairings outside of an extremely implausible
Kyouko/Luke, depending on Amumu testimony, unless she is lying about bulletproof, or more information comes to light, or a mafia is pinned. This said, without KyoSaya bias, I'd find it very odd if mafia were to waste their first attack N1 trying to clear themselves. If you are a hidden vigilante that shot Kyouko N1, then now is the time to speak up, because that practically guarantees Amethyst is mafia. And if you're mafia trying to frame Amethyst by saying you attacked Kyouko, don't bother; if Amethyst flips town, you're done.)
Soren/Luke (I do not think this is likely, but there's a very, very remote chance)
Soren/Cecil(Ultimately, I... I do not think Amumu/Luke is a pairing. It would be too bizarre to do what they did and both be mafia, the slimmest of chances)
Amumu/Cecil (There is a fairly acceptable chance of this)
Luke/Cecil (This one may be possible as well)
I feel like one of these pairings is the most likely to be the mafia pairing.
If Amumu clarifies Luke's abilities in a way that seems damning, Luke/Amethyst and Luke/Cecil are two of my top pairings. If Luke says that Amumu can attack, Amumu/Cecil gains some traction for me. Amethyst is suspicious all around given that she hasn't talked much. Kyouko is probably town. Soren feels kind of town, but may be working with Cecil (?).
- Spoiler:
I am so very tired omg good night. ;v; (This one's for you, hostess <3)
Edit: One thing I forgot to mention in my long analysis is that if the friendship thing (if it happened) was consensual, then Luke accepting it as mafia would be interesting. It'd either mean he accepted to not be suspicious to Amumu through denying him, or he accepted because he thought his abilities were ambiguous enough to escape Amumu's suspicions. I really, really want to hear more from both of them on the exact details of how this works. I truly do not think both can be mafia... unless they are very, very dodgy with regards to the mechanics of this ability, which then raises my doubts about them. Augh, too tired to keep analyzing this connection between them. I've voiced a ton of thoughts on it already.))
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