Sorry for the delay in posting; I've been busy and also attempting a futile attempt to fix my sleep schedule, which does not appear to be working.
Anyways, welcome back alpaca!! ;_; I’m glad you’re back to the land of the living and not the dead. And you brought a lot of information for us to parse through, too. :O
re: jailer; I mentioned earlier that I feel like the jailer could go either way, though the protective half of the jailer role is pretty worthless for mafia unless there’s a vigilante on the town side. I’d probably reason that the jailer would be town because assuming there's no vigilantes in this game, why not have a stunning role instead ...? I don’t rule out the possibility that the jailer could be mafia since it certainly isn’t impossible, but I’ve been running on Occam’s razor for 95% of this game and I’m not going to stop now.
re; possibilities for lynch: Hmm.
nautilus’ list:
AliceofOz
high seraph
Panpanpandy
Rasei
I think that Rasei’s role is fairly obvious by this point and I'm willing to let her slide for now. Please let me know if you want an elaboration on why I think this way ¯\(' _ ' )/¯
Pan hasn’t posted anything since game start, and presumably he’s been busy to the point where a replacement might be needed. I... there isn't anything particularly incriminating on Pan (or, well, any evidence proving he's town) outside of his inactivity. Admittedly for meta reasons I would feel a little bad lynching someone who might be replaced halfway through this phase?
This is a really terrible reason, I'm sorry, but I feel like it might monumentally suck if someone were to be plopped into the game in the middle/end of the phase while Pan was being voted on and then lynched. Even if Pan is mafia, there's also a second mafia member lurking around that we can focus on for the time being.
AliceofOz is… I’m of two minds here.
Her hesitance with respect to the lynch on Luxaria (the outcry when Kiyoko voted on Luxaria) and Luxaria’s unwillingness to vote for her are also interesting, which opens up the possibility that they could both be mafia team mates.
However, there have been valid counterpoints made with respect to AliceofOz: she evidently didn't send in the night kill, if Alice was town Luxaria probably didn't want Alice to seal the lynch on her, if Alice and Luxaria were both mafia she could've just piggybacked onto the no lynch vote Luxaria made and hoped that the RNG would be kind to them in a last ditch effort to save her, and so on. I also don't know AliceofOz or Luxaria very well, but I can believe Kiyoko's explanation of hesitance due to them being friends as well, as I presume Kiyoko knows them better than I do. So I'm willing to leave her alone for now.
This… leaves high seraph through process of elimination. Not committing to a vote yet since I want to see his reply to Rasei's vote and his opinions on who the lynch target should be, and unlike the last day phase it's still fairly early before rollover.
re: SSD: I’m not a solid state drive :( But no, I'm not SSD. Trope is two words long, not three.
re: Nicknames - Blaire works a lot better! It was just getting confusing because I kept wanting to shorten AliceofOz -> Alice, and Mr. Alice -> Alice, and ... D: Though I guess this is a moot point, because now Blaire is dead... If I refer to Alice in my posts, it's probably going to be AliceofOz.
@Kotakia: Just out of curiosity, if Pan is replaced, will it happen immediately or at the end of the phase?