D1, Alcasync started a vote for Mr. Alice three minutes after rollover. I entertained the idea that this might be some clever ploy on her behalf. It's highly possible. If there were a framing role, it would not be unheard of for the mafia to pre-design a plan of action against Mr. Alice, knowing Mr. Alice tends to be hard-pressed to defend herself. This plans relies on Mr. Alice not role claiming or expressing herself. Kiyoko then immediately backed Alcasync. Eleni seems to have backed Alcasync by proxy of gun. If Mr. Alice is or isn't mafia, then these three are an interesting setup.
How wise of a strategy would it be for mafia to have a gunsmith, a frame, and a stun, and use all of that to set up a perfect defense for all three of them? Technically, it would work if it happened. Logically? Saving the gun for a later phase makes much more sense as a surprise. Additionally, their plan heavily hinges on a bunch of unknowns, since town was in a state of flux. This would also require them to avoid sending in a NK. The more and more I prattle on, the more unlikely this sounds. All three cannot be mafia together.
So then we approach Mr. Alice versus the others. Kiyoko and Alcasync both as mafia is too obvious of a ploy, but let's consider something. Who was stunned? Kiyoko, a notable member, and Mr. Alice, a relatively low priority target. The latter is the largest factor as to why this might be a pseudo-frame, but it's a very, very risky and questionable N0 gambit.
Mr. Alice (Mafia): Stunned
Kiyoko (Mafia or Town): Stunned
AliceofOz will tell us that Mr. Alice was stunned by a town. We can return to this.
Kiyoko being stunned is interesting. Let's say a town stuns her. What is their objective? There's a 30% chance of her being mafia. 60% of the time, she's guaranteed to be pro-town. That's a powerful chance to be a large contribution to your alignment as a town stunner. Same goes for Alcasync, which is why you do not stun her. These two are prime targets for investigation, tracking, and protection due to the high focus on them both. We cannot ignore that there are some that might see things differently, but overall...
Mafia gains more from stunning Kiyoko. They know she is dangerous. If she is town, she is likely to do something that will help her develop reads, protect herself, protect someone like Alcasync, or anything else. Allowing her to perform a night action further risks your win condition as mafia. Same goes for Alcasync, but Alcasync was not stunned.
There was no NK.
AliceofOz says that a town stunned Mr. Alice. Is there a hidden ulterior motive in her telling us this? If there's a framer, her contribution helps guarantee that Mr. Alice was not set up for a pseudo-frame by mafia. If Mafia had framer and stunner, this might not be a bad idea... but. Let's step back for a moment. You have the ability to frame, tailor, whichever. Do you use it on Mr. Alice? I can see pros/cons for both sides, but I think it makes more sense to use on someone whose information, if contradicted, throws town into all sorts of confused paranoia (see: Masquerade).
Mr. Alice could be a miller, but undoubtedly she would have said that immediately. Even with all of her vagueness about her role, in Blaire fashion, she would know enough to say, "I'm miller!" if she had been that.
Conclusion #1: Mr. Alice was mafia.
With Mr. Alice as mafia, this sheds new light on what happened. We know mafia probably has a stunner and a jailer. If they have a redirect, we have no way of knowing. We cannot know what their last ability is. We know that ability is not arsonist.
So, Drandahl claiming arsonist and neutral isn't sketchy. He knows town had targeted him. If he were mafia, claiming neutral is incredibly risky for him. Neutral just counter-claims. Does town believe him or the other? It means one of them is guaranteed mafia. It would be much safer to claim a town alignment, which cannot be counter-claimed. Town claiming neutral makes no sense unless you literally want to see the world burn, as he does.
Conclusion #2: Drandahl is neutral.
Claiming arsonist does nothing for Drandahl if he is not arsonist. Not much point in deliberating.
Conclusion #3: Drandahl is arsonist.
Mafia cannot have arsonist and stunner.
Eleni claimed a gunsmith role. She claims giving a gun to Alcasync. Alcasync has no idea who gave her the gun. Giving a gun to Alcasync makes sense since she is very pro-town and looks very town. Let's evaluate:
One of Eleni and Alcasync are mafia. Both are mafia. Neither are mafia.
If Eleni is town and gives Alcasync a gun, and Alcasync is mafia, then Alcasync killing Rasei isn't suspicious as a mafia, though it might be wiser to save it for later in the thread to do a surprise kill. However, everyone brushed Alcasync's claimed kill under the rug as an, "Oh, well, it happens!" But for this to be the case, that means Alcasync led a lynch on Mr. Alice. Unless there is a framer, she'd lead a lynch on her fellow mafia right away without any guarantee of benefit. Let's state this now: If there's no framer, then Alcasync is not mafia. And as previously stated, the framing would be very ham-handed if used in this way. This is my pillar for my entire speculation going forward. If it crumbles, everything else collapses.
Conclusion #4: Alcasync is town.
So what if Eleni is mafia. Why give a gun to Alcasync? Could it be another mafia doing it and Eleni claims for credit? This falls back to one question: Why give a town an unblockable kill? There's the chance she might just blast away a town right off the bat. That's a very real possibility. However, it is not said who does the kill. You could just as easily give a fellow mafia a gun and let them do the kill and no one claims. The problem is, then, everyone says they didn't do it, and you cannot claim gunsmith and claim to town as a result.
Can both be town? It makes sense for town to give Alcasync a gun. Simple as that.
So this is interesting. Eleni is most likely town. If she is mafia, it means mafia played the gambit of relying on Alcasync to clear them as town. They had no guarantee Alcasync would claim the kill. They had no guarantee Alcasync wouldn't hold it and use it on a better target. There's about a 3% chance of Eleni being mafia.
Conclusion #5: Eleni is either confirmed town as gunsmith, or a 3% chance of being sneaky mafia and there's a gunsmith on mafia.
Rasei then died. Rasei shows up as town. Why would mafia change a mafia's alignment to town (unless they could swap Mr. Alice and Rasei's alignments, but... why swap these two?) and then, from Rasei-mafia perspective, proceed to shaky-claim and get yourself shot. Maybe she just botched it, but it would be easy to just say little to nothing or go on a pre-fabricated story. Eh.
Conclusion #6: Rasei was town
Let's evaluate
Town:
Rasei, Alcasync, Eleni (97%)
Neutral:
Drandahl
Mafia:
Mr. Alice
Kiyoko, AliceofOz, Plotstickers, and Tiki the Troll are the only ones left for me to consider. Obviously, I include myself as town, and I have a good reason for doing so that I can reveal later in the game if I live. If I die from fire, well. That's all she wrote?
Let's look at these pairings.
Kiyoko/AliceofOz/Mr. Alice
Kiyoko/Plotstickers/Mr. Alice
Kiyoko/Tiki the Troll/Mr. Alice
AliceofOz/Plotstickers/Mr. Alice
AliceofOz/Tiki the Troll/Mr. Alice
Plotstickers/Tiki the Troll/Mr. Alice
I am reasonably certain one of these six pairings contains the mafia. How to narrow this down?
So, first thing's first: Mafia can elect to self-sacrifice for the sake of building the defense up of another, but that's dangerous if they do not have the capacity to frame or obscure information from town. This also seems extra risky when one mafia is already dead and you do not know if you can reasonably pull off several more phases without getting stunned or caught. We know one of the two living mafia is probably a stunner. Would a town with two stuns or one with a reactive stun have spoken up by now? I feel like there's a good chance of it, since that would dramatically help us to narrow down who to protect/support, who to stun, and who to believe. If there were someone with two stuns, and they were town, they would've said so by now I think. I can go on, but the logical conclusion: Town and mafia stunner.
Conclusion #7: Stunner on each alignment, unless Drandahl has a stun. Would a neutral have two abilities, especially if one is a kill?
So, mafia stunner is one of the two left alive, since from asking Sammiya it would be impossible for two stunners to stun each other, meaning
Conclusion #8: Neither Kiyoko nor Mr. Alice are the stunners.
So, let's work on Kiyoko. She can't be stunner. In her pairings, that means that either Plotstickers, AliceofOz, or Tiki the Troll are the stunner.
AliceofOz has hinted that she knows a town stunned Mr. Alice. If she's lying and it was a mafia, the town stunner could/would speak up (unless they're Drandahl) and reveal her as lying. I have more thoughts on this.
Plotstickers appears to have made no mention of her role.
Tiki appears to have made no mention of his role.
First thing's first: Recently, Kiyoko has targeted Tiki for suspicion. Kiyoko might be following up on Alcasync's thoughts of Tiki being suspicious. This could help Kiyoko verify with Alca that she's town. Alca already thinks Kiyoko is town. This would be Kiyoko throwing away the mafia stun for the sake of making herself look good. Tiki could have flown under the radar if he did what Kiyoko told them in private, I think.
Kiyoko/Tiki/Mr. Alice is not a pair.
Recently, Plotstickers suggested something wrong about Kiyoko, which Kiyoko immediately corrected. Not sure what to think of that. Also, let's not forget that Kiyoko was quick to follow Alcasync up on Mr. Alice. In fact, Kiyoko has Alcasync's backing overall. Alcasync won't reveal what it is. Plotstickers seems to suggest masons. I don't know.
Do we trust that Alca hasn't been bamboozled? Hmm.
Kiyoko and AliceofOz haven't had much communication beyond Kiyoko believing Alice was town.
Plotstickers gave reads recently. She's been relatively quiet most of the game. She said AliceofOz, Kiyoko, and Tiki are all ???s to her.
Tiki gave reads. Suggests stunning Drandahl to save me. Then says I'm probably mafia. Puts suspicions on Plotstickers from being quiet. Says Plotstickers is probably mafia. Also seemed to roughly implicate AliceofOz as dooming Mr. Alice with town stun claim.
Voting trends.
Kiyoko voted Mr. Alice with the only other votes being Alca on Mr. Alice and Rasei on myself.
Tiki immediately did No Lynch.
Mr. Alice went to No Lynch with Rasei and Tiki. (3-3)
I swapped to Mr. Alice. (4-3)
Plotstickers voted Mr. Alice (5-3)
AliceofOz voted Mr. Alice (6-3)
Tiki voted Rasei (6-2)
Kiyoko pushed a lynch on Mr. Alice.
Plotstickers had the option to tie it, but hammered it.
AliceofOz bandwagoned it.
Tiki tried to vote no lynch against Mr. Alice.
I'm willing to exclude Kiyoko based on Alcasync's trust.
AliceofOz/Plotstickers/Mr. Alice
AliceofOz/Tiki the Troll/Mr. Alice
Plotstickers/Tiki the Troll/Mr. Alice
Most likely pairings.
Note. AliceofOz never provided reads. She said town stunned a mafia, which she would know if she knew who mafia stunned. She never said how she knows. What would tell her who stunned someone? The only solution is if she was watching one very particular player during the night, or she's the town stunner herself. If watching, that sounds like a tracker role, which Eleni claimed. Also does not guarantee the absence of a misdirect. Hmm.
AliceofOz expresses a lot of hesitance in voting for Mr. Alice, jumping on the Rasei is suspicious, but ultimately went for Mr. Alice after Plotstickers did.
AliceofOz suggested that mafia might be trying to frame Kiyoko, which seems weird to say if you're trying to defend Mr. Alice, unless you're throwing Mr. Alice to the wolves. Does not think Kiyoko is mafia. After saying a town stunned mafia, later comments that she finds it very lucky that stunner nails mafia so quickly. Doesn't believe in lucky circumstances.
Later says D1 has little info and mafia aren't prone to being active early.
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