Gakuen Mafia Season 2: School Festival [EP11]

Ummm lynchproof usually just means the lynch fails. See: the lynch on lucas that failed a few days ago. If it forced the votes onto someone else that's an entirely different ability.

Ummmm ok sorry for not being accurate with terminology I'm having to re-learn gosh :V

what the fug

???????/ what

"Ninfia, no!" Taki cried out, tears threatening her eyes. "I never got to pay you back like I wanted after you made me so happy during our sleepover!" She sniffle, then suddenly perked up, jerking her head back and standing bolt straight, her boobs flopping about like real boobs never would. "I know I'll bring you that book you were reading!" She ran off. "Then you'll have something to do in detention!"

i have no idea whats going on but i have faith that the ratio is 6T:4M i still believe

&%$$%&()(()()8!! that lynch
we actually had a 4 vote margin, so I thought we'd be safe :I

HOWEVER
that makes me think that gerry was actually right and his list is accurate.
I don't know the exact mechanics, but minji's leg can vote.
twice in the game.
and I don't think we have enough unsolved /unknown abilities and people with them left for this being someone else's doing.
minji, if it wasn't you, speak up.
if it was you, burn :)

piplups wrote:re:ezz, yes, that does sound like it! the same number is affixed to the power in both instances as well, right? if so, it's probably yours! that said, as I mentioned before, knowing your power can't really clear you just yet, huh? I'll... see how this day ends before making any judgments, since my likely-maf shortlist is only getting ever shorter and more confusing ;w;

yup! and nope, it doesn't really clear me. I'll be honest, this type of role can easily be on either side, so I won't blame you for side-eyeing. (I only wanted to confirm with you so that you can identify/eliminate other people for info & if you get more roles ; v;)

h☆gh ser☆ph wrote:i have no idea whats going on but i have faith that the ratio is 6T:4M i still believe

Is someone in the Mafia secretly dead??

hah, I'd love to believe alca was miller, but I'd rather not work under that assumption unless we can be absolutely sure.

I'm gonna ask sensei if the ratio is accurate :v

ugh, that was... really weird. especially since we should've had more than enough of a vote margin to discount for a few extra votes, which is why I didn't vote, in case lulu had some kind of Bomb-like ability, which would make angel the last vote. unless someone's votes here don't count?

I'm still weirded out by gerry's choice of question the previous night, so I'm taking his list choices with a grain of salt, but if ninfias flipped town, then lulu HAS to be mafia. I don't know about the ratio thing though; I mean, in an open ratio game, you'd think there wouldn't be any death millers, much less reverse death millers, but... aaaah, I really hope that a) gerry isn't lying and b) his power is actually accurate. not that it really matters, since the stunner is dead, but I can give you sammiya's lollipop for tonight??

re:Mystic Eye, I... ended up seeing this one.

"Once during the night phase you can end the night phase prematurely. Any actions submitted after you send in your action will fail to work."

doesn't tell us anything anymore, since it's been used already, except that it was at least only one-use. I had a strong inkling that it was plot's, anyway (wakes you up in the morning = ends night??).

and whoops, no more paranormal investigations *n* honestly, that was my first choice in clubs pfff I just imagined the chuu2 donning a mysterious black cloak and getting really into stuff like (fake) kephalonomancy or building a totally defunct EMF meter or something. s...peaking of which, I haven't really been sending in my club ability, considering how confusing it already all is (we never knew which club plot, kiyo and alca belonged to), though I at least know that my own club no longer has all three of its members.

I'm confused as all hell and am REALLY hoping that alca was a miller.

Warning: Long. ;w; tl;dr at the bottom.

Sorry, I intended to post last night, but I ended up spamming GW2 fractals and similar with Kiyoko. And then got woken up by construction, and then my power went out because of aforementioned construction shorting the circuit. I had a very, very grumpy morning.

Okay, first thing's first: What in the hell.

But I'm going to go back in the thread before I get to whatever happened to Ninfia.

Re: Alcasync

I said I'd offer some thoughts on alca later. Previously I commented that I would rather operate under the assumption that she was town until we have reason to believe otherwise, just as a precaution. Maybe we're safer than we actually are, but as it stands we have a good chance of being 6:5. Which is terrifying.

To elaborate and analyze, though, alcasync is a bit difficult to read in a game like this. I've actually never played with her in a game larger than b&b on these boards. In the other games she's played, she tends to get quick reads on mafia and pushes lynches, offering thoughts and speculation when appropriate. When she is mafia in these same games, however, she gets quiet and turtles up and doesn't vote as aggressively. This is kind of similar to what we saw in this game.

The problem is she legitimately had connection troubles, as was mentioned by others (Kiyoko made a post stating that alca's internet was out), which makes judging her presence difficult. What interactions she did have in the thread weren't frequent. Notably, as she even used in her own defense later in the thread, she broke the tie between drandahl and Kiyoko and put a vote onto drandahl, which, in hindsight, has more significance than initially realized.

Kiyoko claimed she was bulletproof. Specifically, she stated:

Kiyoko wrote:Part of my role is that if anyone acts on me, I learn their ability 1x, and this includes the night kill. If I'm ever killed at night, I will survive the first one and "learn" the night/vig kill (but only once). The reason I'm okay sharing this with the thread is because a role cop acted on me last night and I'm pretty sure it's a mafia role cop at this point.

As well as previously posting with:

Kiyoko wrote:Okay fuck since you caught it. I originally said I was bulletproof but I'm not lynchproof so yeah I'm freaking out just a little

Piplups later commented that this was not in the description she received of the role and she interpretted it as a bluff. So for that matter @ Piplups: Can you check your result again to be certain? Because the reason I'm inclined to believe this claim by Kiyoko is... if she truly believed she had been investigated by mafia already, bluffing that she had a bulletproof when mafia would know one way or the other seems... odd. Unless she was holding out hope that the investigation was town?

But... that discrepancy aside, Kiyoko specifically stated she was not immune to lynches--which would be an ideal means of killing her if she were bulletproof. Meaning if alca was in fact mafia, she would have been privy to the N0 investigation on Kiyoko that mafia seems to have performed (no player, town or otherwise, as claimed doing this iirc?). Given that Kiyoko was kept alive as a dominant force for quite a few phases means mafia had reason to believe they could not NK Kiyoko, verifying her claim, or they didn't want to. But in the case of the latter... Kiyoko was sent to detention in as purposefully an ambiguous means as possible--and yes, I am operating under the assumption that lulu is mafia, which I will get to soon. The notable flaw in my observations is that Kiyoko died to a gun despite claiming bulletproof, but the wording of how she would "learn" the ability and "negate" the NK doesn't directly reference bulletproof. My only explanation is that the gun might've had a mechanical loophole around her defenses, if they existed and were not a bluff. So if you could double-check, piplups, that would actually help a lot because...

The take-away from this is that alcasync, if she were mafia, was in the perfect position to push the lynch Kiyoko's way in one of the easiest means of killing her. If Kiyoko was lynched, town would not have gathered such information so quickly, nor would the mafia stunner have died D1 (which is huge since, as far as we can tell, there have been no other anti-town disruptive effects during night phases, like a bus or otherwise). Granted, there was no way of knowing how the votes would proceed from then untill rollover (she voted 4 hours prior to rollover), but I'm having trouble seeing alcasync as mafia in this respect, and other than being cautious it is one of the reasons why I'm inclined to view her as town until we have reason to believe otherwise.

But to that end, I went back to check what ezzelin said she received from Kiyoko regarding alcasync.

Kiyoko wrote:I've already told this to a few other people but most important message is that because i would die for alca♥chan it's only fair that she die for me, and so if i ever get sent to detention before her please send her my way shortly after because that means she is maf. But don't touch her before then. Only I may touch her. Or well, thanks to a certain restraining order I can't touch her either, but you know what I mean. Thank you. ♥♥♥

Unless someone has a different letter from Kiyoko (and I missed it, gomen, this thread is so big @_@), the problem is that there's no explicit mention of what made alca definitively mafia, meaning I can only guess it was just a confident hunch/read on alca.

So, thus, @ high seraph

I know we as a majority voted for alca (myself included), but you were very vocal about her being mafia to the point of suggesting it was likely she'd be a miller. However, I want your thoughts on this statement:

high seraph wrote:I feel like the best way to establish Ezz's alignment at this point, if people still doubt her, is to lynch alca next phase

Now that alca has flipped town, you say ezz has a 1% chance of being mafia. I don't have a scum-read on ezz, personally, but I am curious why you specifically highlighted that scenario and then when the opposite happened you had no reservations?

There have been a few other weird statements, which could be down to coincidence, bad timing, or just the patented Lucas cinnamon roll shenanigans (saying T3t could not be town stunner under any circumstance, and then he was; claiming the true ratio is 6:4, which I'm guessing is a mistake and you meant to say 7:4?; and this one could just be bad luck, but you posted that lynching alca over Cure would leave us in a better position at this point in time, but now the ratio is uncomfortably close). I won't hold those against you, but I guess I am just asking for you to clarify your thoughts and convictions regarding alca.

Okay... that all out of the way.

re: Gerry's recent question.

I am more than mildly uncomfortable with the claimed results, and not just because I am implicated, but because I'm having trouble seeing that as a valid question through its weird specifications. Piplups' recent post highlights some thoughts I have as well with regards to it being a potentially awkward and unusual question--in particular, the fact that the question can just as quickly provide a result of "yes". However, my bigger concern is the overarching implications for your role.

Early on you very specifically stated "I can ask yes or no questions, and 'cannot probe about the alignments of players'". When the Cure/Cur3 question came in, I was a bit apprehensive, but I could see how the ambiguity might count. It probably didn't help that the circumstances around Cure were too damning, and in earlier phases I had privately wondered (as others had) if it were possible for one of the linked pairings (Cure/Cur3 and Kiyo/alca) to have a maf/town setup. I was still a bit skeptical since it's still technically an alignment probing question, and I know you were and have maintained some skepticism as well.

With this new question... it is awkward. If we interpret your result as accurate, then using circumstantial evidence (I.E. one of Cure/Cur3 is mafia, or, for example, a mafia flip of one player on that page--doesn't even have to be Cure in this hypothetical) you effectively receive the alignment information of multiple people. That's equivalent to as many people as an alignment cop could have received results on if they got an investigation off every night since N0. But you'd do it with one question.

And that's a bit of my apprehension. That just doesn't seem like something a host like Sensei would ever allow if she specifically laid out a clause that you could not probe about alignments. In theory you could use that to determine up to 15 alignments if there were fifteen individual posters on a single page. This... seems extremely broken in terms of mechanics.

The other thing is it also means virtually all alignment reads in thread are dictated by the veracity of your result. You could, in theory, clear an arbitrary set of players if you set the parameters just right across a series of questions, I think, and then post about the results.

I do believe you asked that question and that this was your result, so don't take any of that the wrong way. But I'm just... very skeptical of the accuracy, especially since I know my own alignment doesn't fit into that equation, which then means that either deo was mafia (which I can't see being likely), or there was, in fact, a miller (and if it wasn't alca, which I just laid a case out for, then I have no idea which player it might have been).

Others may parse it differently than my perspective, which is fine. I still have some actions I can take this game that will help prove my alignment. But for now I'll just assist with hunting scum as best I can. And to that end...

re: lulu, and I guess also Cure

Lulu never did respond to my questions about the mechanics of her gun generation, which has me more than a little apprehensive. Especially following Ninfia's flip as town, and that I can't see town having two vigilantes, I can't see lulu as anything other than scum right now. So both her and Cure voting Ninfia and then Ninfia getting lynched can't be coincidence. I'd offer more theories on this, but after the length of this post, I'm burnt out at this point so I'll just close by saying I'll try to return to this later tonight, and that this might fall in line with what Kiyoko said early in the game about wanting a healthy vote margin between targets? Lulu and Ninfia were separate by a margin of 5 votes, so either there were some hidden votes, misdirected votes, or just votes that didn't count.

I'm going to leave the post at this for now and aim to come back later.

uh..

tldr: Want piplups to double-check Kiyoko's role result. alca as miller seems unlikely, but either way will operate under the assumption that she's town until reason to believe otherwise. Skeptical of the accuracy of Gerry's results. Confident that lulu and Cure are both mafia.

Guys, plz. I'd never kill my darling brother. UvU

I tried to be the hero town needed. I failed you. I'm sorry. Good luck town.