Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

I am pretty sure  Luxaria or Rasei was the first one to get the ball served to them. Given the random chances, the mafia would aim for another player first and hope that it'd eventually bounce to someone that'll be taken out.

Contemplating doing a activity vote first and then changing later. The ratio has me a bit nervous but since the NK isn't guaranteed to succeed I feel a bit better about mislynching then usual.

Overall, though, fairly certain Kiyoko, Rasei, and Luxaria are all town, and thus if anyone votes for them I'll be very side-eyey towards the person. Cure I'm not willing to vote for since I think she's town atm.

Math is not my thing and the percentages are making my head hurt, but since this is Entelechy's first game here it could just be part of their play style (and Ezz just ninja'd saying that math is her thing), and I'm against lynching first-time players on their first day phase in the game.

I figure that it's best to keep the active speculators alone for the moment definitely, so I wouldn't mind voting for these players:
drandahl
Chinomi
Tiki
Aeiou

Also last night I had chosen if the ball came to me I would've passed to number 13. It was the first number to come to mind.

Given that there's a 30% chance of the first target immediately passing to a mafia member, and there's no way to guarantee a random townie will serve to their preferred target, I still think it's way more likely that the preferred target was the initial NK. Of the three, Kiyo really seems most likely.

Morning. Sipping my Nescafe brand coffee. To you know, Start the day with great taste.

Admittedly last to post, but I prepped for a passing to 12 last night.

sorry if my posts aren't very frequent btw, I'm working on revising/formatting an article and it's gonna get me some good ca$h moneys, so I'm only posting whenever I take a break from that lmao

But, umm, I think I didn't really look at the bigger picture about how mafia would like to handle their balls, as the possibility of aiming at Kiyo/Lux in order to keep them from being the middle pass or hoping that they will fumble the ball seems more likely than the theory I proposed. So, to recap, these are ways the mafia would probably process their NK:

1 - target a low-threat player -> pass to a high-threat player
2 - target a high-threat player -> pass to another or back to a high-threat player
3 - target a high-threat player to avoid giving them a pass
4 - completely random

atm, I feel like it's most likely that the mafia would rely more on the possibility that their first target would fumble the ball than any of the other ones (so Kiyo was likely the original target). To be honest though, I think discussing this is kind of useless. I started this line of thought because it appeared that, for once, analyzing the NK target was actually going to be useful to the town lmao, but it seems like, just as in any other mafia game ever played in the history of mafia games, analyzing the NK target leads to literally nowhere. i'm sorry

(i am glad u guys like my chart tho)

(and by u guys i mean kiyo. thank u kiyo. i like u too kiyo)

@ ezzelin: i'm glad math is your thing, i'm not gonna pretend that i understood anything you said in the post you quoted me lmao SORRY i REALLY DON'T GET IT Ok YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO PULL OUT YOUR MS PAINT iF YOU WANT ME TO UNDERSTAND I GUESS (SORRY)



I'm going to casually vote: Tiki as a placeholder / activity vote. I kind of agree with Kiyo that our best shot at winning in an all-vanilla setup is to make sure everyone is talking practicing their volley moves with the rest of the team. I'm likely going to remove this vote after Tiki makes a post with more than 9 words!!! And even if he doesn't, I'll probably take another look into the thread after I'm done revising, editing & formatting some more and pick someone else ;w;

ninja'd @ dranball, hello dylan

When I posted at 2am last night I hadn't realized that passing to a safe number gave the Home Team (town?) OVERALL an advantage, I had only thought of it as being advantageous to individuals within the town.

I have since realized that passing to a safe number does greatly increase the chance of a ball reaching a spiker (2/9 instead of 2/13).

I would like to say that math is Not My Thing, but since I don't know anyone or their typical behaviors, its about all I can do to contribute, now.

I will vote to Bench someone, but I am holding off and hoping to get a better idea from what people are saying about who is acting irregularly.

Normally I am much more quiet in the first few rounds, but I am feeling bold because the Away Team can't target me directly (fingers crossed).

tl;dr at the bottom because I suck at condensing my thoughts and everyone should be disgruntled at me as a result:

Cure wrote:MAKES YET ANOTHER POST TO SAY, it's a shame that we won't have as much information moving forward, but it makes sense why we won't be getting PMs anymore. Potentially clearing up to three townies in a single night makes process of elimination pretty rough for the mafia.

I think we still might be able to deduce numbers with a LOT of cross-referencing if people claim who they were going to pass to, however.

I agree with everything in this post. This also relates to one major reason why Cure will be high on my town list until proven otherwise. I feel like if Cure were mafia, she would very much be disinclined to immediately hop on the speculation and potential clearing of pass PMs because it has the potential to clear multiple town each night. So fostering that discussion would dramatically hurt her if she were mafia. The only way mafia stand to benefit from discussion of pass PMs is if they fake-claimed.

The problem with fake-claiming a pass PM (prior to the announcement that pass PMs would be going away) is that the town that did not receive a PM have no reason to lie about it. This means that only the town that did receive it and the mafia trying to sow discord would be able to make claims at the PM. Right off the bat that brings a mafia into the spotlight of "one of these four people is mafia", which is dangerous for them given that the math will win out once more jersey numbers are available to town. This is a big reason why pass PMs are probably gone since the potential clear each night cannot really be thwarted by mafia without basically saying, "Hey I'm mafia."

So to that end, that Cure would dig into the mechanics of passing and pass PMs and make sure everything was read properly reads as pro-town to me, because if she were mafia I'd be more likely to picture her screaming at Ninfia over the predicament instead of trying to build upon it. That's just my read on the situation, at any rate.

To Cure's last point, I think even without pass PMs that as the phases go on and we get jersey numbers from lynches/NKs, we can also deduce other numbers based upon the truthful town pass claims. Mafia will throw wrenches into this, but I think once we have more numbers to plug in it will be easier for us to figure out which paths the ball traveled through process of elimination, and we'll more easily be able to place players on a chart as a result.

Anyway.

Re: Probability

I am not immediately suspicious of anyone posting the math behind the actions, because math is awesome and math can be used to help boost the probability of utilizing the gimmick of these pseudo-vanilla games. I think the math is also good to discuss because I'm sure it is something the mafia had to at least briefly consider--I mean, why wouldn't they? If they want to have some control over which target receives the NK, their initial serve has the most impact. So to that end, the physical outcomes...

Spoiler:

The actual percentages and probability may skew all of these results, but in terms of physical outcome, I... believe that if the mafia were specifically trying to kill their target, they would be more likely to serve to that player. And without doing the math, I think it would check out since that player has 4/12 chances to pass to mafia, whereas trying to kill this target in a roundabout manner requires all previous players to toss to them at 1/12 chance. Correct me if I'm wrong, and I may correct myself if I go and do the math later.


I'll re-read some more and post a vote after I take care of some things. Leaning towards the ones indicated by Cure and Kiyo, excluding no lynch because we need player and jersey flips.

tl;dr: Agree with Cure's points highlighted above. Think town can still do process of elimination and deduce player jerseys and probable town. Think Cure is probably town due to her efforts. Not immediately suspicious of people posting math, though agree with comments of others that it could be a way for mafia to look like they're contributing. Personally think that if mafia wished to specifically kill someone, they'd send a serve their way.

Dylan is definitely a sell-out in this game.


Is ninjad by the great wall of typography. screams.

I HAVE A NAME, CURE.

OKAY "LUXARIA", IF THAT IS INDEED YOUR REAL NAME.

shoosh lil' baby luxaria its ok dont listen to cure she's a bully shhh i love ur tldr ok shh

lemme hug u come on



yes


yes

you are ok

► Kiyoko -> #9
► Luxaria -> #8
► Entelechy
► Tiki The Troll
► Rasei -> #10
► Cure -> #4
► Cur3/T3tsuya -> #5
► High Seraph
► Sammiya -> #13
► Aeiou
► Chinomi
► ezzelin
► Drandahl -> #12

k let me know if i missed any claims this is literally from memory

I ended up having a more packed schedule than usual today so I'll be in and out, but since drandahl's post wasn't... entirely useful either, I'm okay leaving my vote on him for now. It's not really pro-town to just claim your pass and gtfo with nothing else in your comment since maf could easily just pick an arbitrary number and lie about it, so I do expect some level of contribution from town besides just that.

Here we go, finally got a chance to settle down, sorry about that.

But okay, from the looks of things, we're off to a pretty solid start, one we need to take advantage of since the rules are being rebalanced. I'm coming in late (sorry again!), do I'll pretty much just be reiterating things, unfortunately. But yeah, it seems we have three clears in Rasei, Kiyo, and Lux, courtesy of their PMs.

Cure certainly appears Town with all her spec. Then again, she's done such a good job of looking Town as Mafia in the past that even her Mafia partners were absolutely convinced she was Town (Snowball Bash). XD Still, she has been contributing a lot to discussion, and hasn't been QUITE as pushy as she was in Snowball, where she dominated discussion and kept the Town shooting themselves in the foot. Not saying I'm voting her, just saying that's why I'm not clearing her. XD

Beyond that, yeah, Vanilla game where we managed to not lose anyone on N0, and have 3 clears on D1. I guess you could say the ball is...in our court. =D

As for who to pass to...on the one hand, we could all try to pass to the cleared Towns in hopes one is a spiker, and have a D2 that has only lost one, or even no, Town players.

On the other hand, we could try to avoid passing to them, which increases the risk of getting benched by a Mafia, but at the same time leaves us with three people we clearly don't want to vote for each day phase, limiting misdirection and confusion.

I dunno...which is the better one? =\

(Now to rush back to work, wee!)

Tiki the Troll wrote:I guess you could say the ball is...in our court.

i think im keeping my vote thank you














...
(unvote)

I am getting... really strange vibes from Tiki's post. Between throwing shade on Raie and debating strategy after the Two Math People in the thread both went "it works out for town to throw to cleared numbers" (though that could just be not keeping up with the thread, this has been a very wordy thread so far)

Sammie's post was enough that I no longer think she's just trying to coast, so I'm revising my list of "will votes" to:

Aeiou
chinomi
Tiki
drandahl