Welcome to Katabasis Station, Work Shift 4

Updated the list, but I think I already assumed you explored since you really wanted that flamethrower, yo.

CLAIMS
ezzelin > med bay - ship task
Ninfia > med bay - ship task
alcasync > Cargo Hold - explore
nautilus > Cargo Hold - explore
Luxaria > Was alone - explore
high seraph > Galley - explore
Tiki the Troll > Cargo Hold - explore
Aeiou > Galley - ship task
Kiyoko > Armory - explore
drandahl >
Mr. Alice > Armory - explore [mentions wanting to get the flamethrower]
Rasei > Cargo Hold - ship task

At some point in the post where I said "Doubt", I outlined three separate scenarios (the simplest three, I guess, since I'm not willing or awake enough to entertain further permutations of these scenarios):

- Rasei is confused and meant explore vs ship task. Judging from the fact that she implied that she thought she would be alone which is why she did the thing, this is a plausible assumption to make. However, on the contrary, multiple players had stated different answers (ship task versus explore), so I'm not sure how accurate this is. In addition, this can't really be clarified at all, because Rasei will be afk for the entire phase according to her posts. It becomes a game then of whether or not we want to wait for Rasei to get back to us.

- alcasync + Tiki are lying about being in the cargo hold. I agree with Kiyoko's post that it seems unlikely that if both were mafia (since town would have less of a reason to directly lie about where they've been, and instead would be vague about it) they would choose to both lie about the same room, and my own reasoning for thinking that alcasync is at least not lying (though she could be any alignment) clashes with this theory. I'm... curious about where she's been and her thoughts on this though, so! Alca where are you?? What are your thoughts??

- Rasei was never in the hold in the first place and lied about being there and was caught in a lie. I know Ninfia said we shouldn't underestimate Rasei, but I'm slightly wary (or perhaps overthinking it ) about whether or not she'd do something like this. Given though that at least 3 people were kind of unsure (and one other, Lucas, was wrong, because:

* For a Ship Task to happen, at least 3 people must have chosen to perform it.

was in his post and it threw me off so bad), it's plausible mafia just didn't know how ship tasks worked.

I can see this being a thing because none of the ship tasks that were planned for last night (med bay, for one) are hugely beneficial to mafia (and mafia would not want to assist the town in getting an investigation off or something); since there were only two mafia at gamestart, too, they likely wouldn't be able to initiate a ship task on their own, so the mechanics for ship tasks wouldn't be immediately crucial for them.

Unless drandahl drops a truthbomb associated with where he went/where he's been, I think the cargo hold is probably our best bet for speculation and where to begin today's lynch. We can WIFOM about why no one ended up going to the Med Bay or why people went to certain rooms, but there's an inconsistency here.

@Lux - Use whatever works best for you! Most people know me as Mitsu vs my username on this forum, so it's not strange for me. o/

Also heads up that I'll be afk for a few hours, but I should be back before rollover.

I feel like we might get the most info out of lynching Rasei but I'm wary of another "lynch someone for info and then not actually interpret the info properly" situation like in HQ maf.

I'm still kind of swamped with work and am only checking in on mobile but I'm interested to see if anyone had other ideas for lynch targets outside of the cargo hold situation. Fwiw, Luxaria is the only one who claimed being solo but I imagine the convert would want to fake claim so that's not necessarily indicative of conversion

vote: drandahl until he posts. I don't necessarily think he's mafia because regardless of alignment, he doesn't show up until the very very end of D1, but I would like to put at least a little bit of pressure for him to post in thread. It feels like a lot of people are waiting for his information before committing to a vote! ;v;

Umm! I agree that the cargo hold situation is very interesting. I agree with Kiyoko that of the four, Rasei's story holds up the least, but I also agree with Luxaria that if we lynch Rasei now we might not get clarification from Rasei about her actions, and will cause more confusion in thread if it turns out Rasei was just town and misunderstood.

Regarding the med bay situation, I understand the suspicions on the people who claimed to possibly go to med bay but did not, but at the same time, even if two mafia said they might go to med bay but did not, that means that at least two town did too, and so I don't think it's inherently mafia to say you're going to med bay and then not go. I think it's more likely just the bystander effect, like somebody said earlier in thread.

Ummm and as for the convert, I'm inclined to think Luxaria is not the convert (unless this is WIFOM?) because she's the only person who claimed to be alone so far and I don't think mafia would want to risk having that much attention on one of them. I think the convert is fake claiming another room, or whether one of the paired rooms actually has a mafia + the convert in it, I'm not sure at this point. ;v;

Sorry if this was answered before, but just to clarify, rollover today is going to be at 9:00 PM EST, right? Or did that change?

Mr. Alice wrote:Sorry if this was answered before, but just to clarify, rollover today is going to be at 9:00 PM EST, right? Or did that change?

yep! last night Ducky had a show to go to (with yours truly because we're orchestra buddies) and so they bumped rollover up before the show started so we wouldn't all be kept in suspense.

Cue me yelling at the poor duck about this game for like 20 minutes before the show, during intermission, and like 30 minutes after

Mr. Alice wrote:Sorry if this was answered before, but just to clarify, rollover today is going to be at 9:00 PM EST, right? Or did that change?

It will be at 9PM EST, yes. Last night was a one time thing.

This has ti be quick bbexaise I need to eat before my job starts. I'm sorry I did meant explored not task. I'm willing to be lynch to prove I'm no space zombie. I also volunteer to to be locked out of the ship when that event goes around. Bye bye. If candy store is slow I'm might neon before rollover bit not suppose to get off til after rollover.

hm...

Unvote

I need to think more

On one hand, I can totally believe it's a town mistake, on the other hand, mafia could also have spammed Rasei with messages going "SAY YOU MADE A MISTAKE AND MEANT EXPLORE"

Rasei wrote:Heads up I work 9am Central Time to 9:30pm Central Time, so I'm not going to be around. I picked ship task because I didn't think anyone would have gone where my special blue die sent me. (I must take a picture of my dice.

Assuming Rasei was aware that ship tasks still work if only one person was in the room I could see this going either way re: initially meaning explore vs. initially meaning ship task, but if Rasei was under the same impression as Lucas that you could only ship task with 3+ people then it's likely she did initially mean explore.

If Rasei did mean explore though that means this lead is dropped.

I have a meeting in two mins so I'll be back later to think on this more.

e: the only vote right now is on drandahl for inactivity why does this always happen with drandahl

right now i'm tempted semi-randomly vote for someone who said they were in the...cargo...hold...? but i really want to hold that out until drandahl says something :'p

Hmmm.

Kiyoko said what I was going to say, so I won't repeat it. I'm sort of willing to give Rasei the benefit of the doubt due to her explicit mention of not thinking anyone would be there, thus her room action--which is what started us down this with regards to Mitsu's speculation (I think she first suggested the possible mistake?).

One other thought: I seem to recall there being a focus upon the converted spending the night in the same room as an infected and getting turned during the night. I think this is statistically unlikely, however... an alternative. If the cargo hold isn't what we're looking for (I do suspect it would be easiest for one mafia to claim being there), then one other thing to consider might be that one of the rooms with a duo might be two infected. They'd get PMs from the host receiving their role, meaning they know no one else was in the room to counter-claim them. I could see the infected then claiming to both be in a room together that they had already plundered.

By doing this, mafia would secretly have the role of that room in question, as well as another undisclosed room. I suppose the risk with this strategy is that the room they both claimed to be in might out them when a town eventually goes in there and discovers there's no item--or if we use the server room's ship task and see that role is in play. Hmmm... I suppose they could have the third mafia head in whatever room this is for the following phase or two.

Anyway, that's just a theory to keep discussion going. One thing that is clear, however, is that we should decide a plan for this coming night phase as early as we can. If we do a lynch today, we'd have 11 players.

We could set up a 3 - 4 - 4 or 5 - 3 - 3 split (sort of like my suggestion last phase), naming players for each group. The 3 or 5 go to the med bay to perform the ship task. The other two groups both go to the rooms of our choosing and also do a ship task. We run the risk of two mafia going unchecked if they're in the overpopulated rooms, though.

Hm... another thought, but I don't think it'll work as cleanly as I would hope. But anyway:

If mafia gets another convert off, and/or we fail to kill one between now and the start of N2 (on top of a bunch of roles being grabbed by mafia), what if... we specifically tell town not to perform the engineering ship task? Or the EVA one, for that matter? We'd already be in worst-case scenario for town. So having both sides lose the game hurts mafia more than town. If no town goes there, then that means mafia has to expend effort into shutting it down, which gives us some degree of control over them.

The only disadvantage to this plan is that the mafia could just send one person to Engineering on N2 and clear it without too much effort. I do have a plan around this that would require more mafia, though, but I don't want to reveal more of it just yet.

... okay done rambling. Where is drandahl?

Any other thoughts on Rasei's claim? Especially those in the cargo hold?

Sorry, work was/is crazy today. Claiming, then backreading more.

I decided to try to block Mafia from exploring, and I turned out to be alone. I'm not deciding if whether or not to say where until I finish backreading.

Ugh, man. Shoulda posted something before work. Kinda want to post something now, but last time I tried to rush a post during work that went horribly (granted, I was Mafia that game, but meh, was still aggravating, heh). Tried last night to just wait till I was home to have a more thoughtful, less rushed post, and time to defend my stance if need need be...which then brought me to being the THIRD person to claim the same room, heh...

Just can't win. >.<

If only I had more time, or if there was someone out there who could speak for me while I was working...

If only...there was a hero...but, oh well. See you guys later, hopefully before rollover...
*disappears.*

Oh, ho, ho, ho! It is good that I am in coming, is it not? For fear no more, good people of Kappalapsis Station, for El Zorro is here to be sorting out this mess you are all stepping into!

As time wanes on, we shold be looking at the whole picture, should we not? Yes? Good! And feel free to being correcting of El Zorro, in case he is every having misunderstanding (though that is unlikely, for El Zorro is never wrong!* Is he not?) Then let us beginning:

Night 1 being strategizing:

Is El Zorro missing anyone? Well, if El Zorro is or not, onto the next point, yes?

Rooms of the interest::

Which was then in the following by:

The claims of the rooms:

And from these claims, El Zorro is seeing these possibilities:

El zorro's findings!:

Oh, ho, ho! El Zorro did a good job in cearing up all that has been in the saying and the doing, has he not?

Do not be in hesitating to call on El Zorro's assistance again!

---

*El Zorro has had a 0% accuracy rating to date.

Alright, I'm up to date. Happy to claim where I went, after reading through (and clearing up some confusion on my part around how this role works).

I went to the Captain's Quarters, and grabbed the masterkey. It doesn't do me enough good to be quiet about this, to be honest.

On that note, one more comment that I don't think Lux has made (sorry if you did, but I missed it, Lux). Even if Lux doesn't claim, Mafia will silently learn which rooms have been already explored. So, not trying to pressure Lux or anything, but I'm picturing diminishing returns on keeping quiet.

This is NOT me suspecting Lux.

Snaked by...?