A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

I'm getting rly stressed abt my college thesis so I'm sorry for short post & low activity this phase ;~;

Luxaria wrote:@ Lucas:
Between katagi, ezz, Tiny, She-Ra, and Aeiou, which player or players would you consider to be mafia?

I haven't been able to read and deeply think about the posts you've made on this page Lux, but to answer your question, at this point I'm leaning more towards the idea of katagi being mafia than any of the other players in that list. Firstly because it should be pretty clear that the mafia has been tryinig to mindfuck us with actions, however it is that this game is structured, and I can't say I understand it as well as you seem to, and I think katagi is specially inclined to resort to smoke & mirrors strategies as mafia. At the same time, vaguely trying to cast suspicion on you without saying anything of actual relevance also feels odd, but this might be a biased opinion on my part because I've been under the impression that you're more likely to be town than not.

However, I am actually pretty comfortable with my current vote choice?? There have been a few instances of dylan's participation that have felt odd for me (like, on D2, pressing the thread to not NL, but still casting a vote that would have no consequence in the outcome of the phase). I've kept him around in my notes for a while, but honestly I'm not sure how reliable these notes are, now that we have a recruit and have finally come to the realization that this game is Not Average.

@ ezzelin
Yeah, I agree with that assessment regarding that they could go for someone that hasn't been considered suspicious. I am just trying to consider all avenues. I guess the main thing that stands out to me is that mafia likes to blitz when it can, as evidenced by last night.

If they wanted to go for two kills last night, in theory, and a recruit, then nabbing another bulletproof from town on top of theoretically killing two people is a huge swing, and it means if there happened to be a ML today, they probably have 2-3 people on the side of town without a bulletproof.

Hm, though that said, it really wouldn't make a huge difference if the convert had a bulletproof or not in that case because there's still other options, depending on if everyone that has received a kill was town at the start of the game.

There's also the variable of doctor protects nestled into all of this, which might make a blitz strategy a little less effective, thus falling more in line with your comments and theories.

I'm trying not to get too, too hung up over the recruit beyond just what it means for players that received a kill on them prior to last night. Namely Aeiou and katagi, because I want to evaluate their likelihood to have been converted or been a fake!clear. Obviously, there's no clear hints one way or another, thus why my primary lynch targets are more people that I'm less sure of. Like drandahl, Sammiya, and possibly some combination of Lucas, Tiki, or Tiny. Though with the latter three, I feel at least one of them was town at the start of the game, possibly two. I still am not quite sure where She-Ra or Rasei fit into this, particularly because they have been in weird positions in the context of votes.

I'm not sure where you fit in either tbh but since I had my Five stolen from me, regardless of your alignment, I'm keeping you here for this phase so tough luck.

Not to mention that the mafia have no way of knowing which failed kills were bulletproofs and which protects, so frankly I doubt that would be the deciding factor in this case.

I'm still kinda torn between voting katagi, sammie or dran.
I've been mildly suspicious of katagi since like D1 to be fair, but nothing solid enough really. I've mentioned before that I think it's likely one out of lux and katagi is mafia, and I believe it's more likely for that to be katagi. Sammie's posts have been looking to me the same way she posts when she's mafia, but that's about it. Gut feeling based on the atmosphere of her posts. And drandahl hasn't really been around all that much, but has compiled two masterlists this phase - which yes, is useful but always makes me suspicious when a player contributes only lists and little other spec, because it's easy to hide behind lists, appearing to be useful.

@Host, can we get a vote tally?
I know there's been a few votes and I don't want to make a tie or something.

Lucas wrote: at this point I'm leaning more towards the idea of katagi being mafia than any of the other players in that list

Interesting. I have had a weird feeling about her as evidenced by some of my speculation, but then her throwing suspicions my way also sort of triggered a bit of a retaliatory suspicion on her, too. I try not to let that influence me too much, but I'm always on high alert of mafia trying to do that since they have in the past, and I... kind of... do not relent if they try that.
coughs about literary maf.

The only reason I'm not sure how to approach katagi in that capacity is that if she was a smoke and mirror attempt at mafia clearing themselves, which feels far more likely than Aeiou, even if Aeiou being the NK was easier to pull off (think Kiyo in Gakuen S1 (for the record of those not there, mafia submitted N0 NK on Kiyoko and protected her)), then where did the other shots come from? That means theoretically at least one on myself or Five had to have come from town. And that's the one point I'm really struggling to analyze because, as I keep re-iterating, I have not seen any real hints to suggest that town would shoot either of us, at least not at that stage. Whereas I can see a town shooting katagi, as unusual as it might be.

Regarding drandahl, he's an awkward one for me because I just so frequently tend to view him as scummy--as do most people--that it's almost meme-worthy. I'm getting mixed vibes, and while he's helpful in some ways, some of what he's said and done intrigues me.

For yourself, I've had trouble parsing you. Because like ezzelin, the two of you go back and forth in my reads. A lot of you feels more pro-town than not, but it also depends on the alignments of the players we're checking and taking into consideration. You throwing shade on katagi and drandahl, after being so sold on She-Ra lynches, makes your position in the thread very interesting to me, and that's why I've thought of possibly lynching you as recently as the previous day phase despite your contributions.

Hmm... 30 minutes to go.

drandahl, Sammiya, Tiki*, or katagi...
Ruling out Tiny, Lucas, and ezz for this phase, and possibly Rasei.
She-Ra and Aeiou are floating about across time and space.
* edit: again, Tiki was probably pro-town near the start of the game, so he'd only be the convert if anything, I think. I just want to hear more from him and I wanted to get rid of the "Might be convinced to vote them" tier, and he just got bumped up. I want to lynch him the least of those four.

p.s. sorry for long-winded and lots of posts, @ Lucas and everyone else. I... get carried away speculating when the one person I felt confident in dies (rip you beautiful creature).

pbbbt

n0 i targeted five
n1 i targeted five
n2 i targeted lux

if i am the lynch, then:
if(when) i flip town, please press lux some more

Sammiya II
Drandahl II

ezzelin vs.
Five vs.
Luxaria vs.
High Seraph vs. Drandahl
She-Ra vs.
Tiki The Troll vs.
Katagi vs. Sammiya
Rasei vs. no lynch Drandahl
drandahl vs. Sammiya
Tinylightsflash vs.
Aeiou vs.
Sammiya vs.

sorry about the late tally! host and a certain princess of power were shoe shopping. I bought two shirts. why did you all write novels when I wasn't around to read them, jfc.

anyway I think this is right? lmk if it isnt.

like dang if you think I might be mafia then votee for my ass, town is getting SO LITTLE INFO out of dilly-dallying ;w;

VOTE:NOLYNCH

I have no idea what who to vote for, I'm having bad moments of this person is not scummy yet my gut is saying to vote for him. I almost voted for him last vote too....

Oh screw it. Vote: Dran for not wanting a no lynch train last day thing and I don't know. but my gut is saying to vote for him so i am

@ katagi:
What are your thoughts on all the kill attempts between N0 to N2?

You've only voiced suspicions on me. What about any other players?

What makes you feel so strongly about me that I should be pressed after you flip, assuming you flip town?

Do you have any other thoughts on what has happened in this game?

Ninfia wrote:host and a certain princess of power were shoe shopping. I bought two shirts

hayley do you know what the difference between a shoe and a shirt is

Luxaria wrote:

Ninfia wrote:host and a certain princess of power were shoe shopping. I bought two shirts

hayley do you know what the difference between a shoe and a shirt is

yes. but none of the shoes were cute so in retaliation I bought shirts.

omg sorry, I was waking up randomly in the morning and catching up then going back to bed because I had nothing coherent to say

my night targets were a little on the random side ;^;
n0 katagi, n1 lux n2 rasei

I did end up having no opinion on lynching rasei but then the way she was acting seemed town once the lynch started happening but I think at that point there was little time or reason to change my vote?


ok I am seriously running out of time to vote?? let me reread some things because holy lux posts

i mostly play on hunches (as i have said before) because I don't do well with ... otherwise ...

and something about the way you've been posting has been giving me feelings - also, you are pushing on me eeerily hard. I have also voiced suspicions on other players (again, primarily if not entireely hunches) such as sammiya (eh activity suspicion) adn i think ezzelin at some point?

i'm also willing to go along with a dran lynch bc i see the point theree

re: kill attempts, i agree with pretty much all the (brilliant!!) deduction you've typed up regarding the setup of the game and blahblah

it doesn't seem all that farfetched that mafia would jail you on n2 to protect you given that your (1x?) bulletproof can be presumed to have been used up

I'm torn between voting on drandahl and Sammiya, given where we're at. I want to think I trust Lucas and Rasei slightly more by process of elimination, given how the past two day phases went. That said, I can easily see a situation in which Lucas swapped to NL to save Rasei, and that's concerning to me.

I want to see katagi's answers before I have a better opinion on what to do regarding her. It really comes down to the division of town and mafia kill attempts across various targets, I think, but I also am curious how she feels about various players.

Across my tiers this phase I keep putting drandahl and Sammiya in my willing to lynch. ezzelin did as well, and so at this point at least 4 people have voiced a desire to lynch on both Sammiya and drandahl. I am inclined to think that other than myself there's at least one other town's opinion somewhere in there, but I'm not sure where or if there's more. Also feel like the mafia haven't been as active as they might've been if a mafia were on the chopping block, but all of these day phases have been a bit like this.

Hm...