distortion [THE END]

Oh I believe you when you say you didn't use any items, I just wanted to cover all my bases with the possible actions (realistically crypsis is the only one who could have protected alca unless tiki did it from beyond the grave).

Ummm! Normally I should be asleep but I woke up in the middle of the night and made the mistake of checking thread instead of going back to sleep, and then I realized something so umm here's a warning ahead of time if this doesn't make sense because I am very tired but I think I am onto something and I want to write it before I forget! ;v;

First of all, Saki sent me a message last night saying she was going to protect me, so I assume the protect came from Saki!

Second of all, my results showed that Ardonye visited both Ninfia and myself. Since I didn't get a message from Ardonye, then it couldn't have been the case that Ardonye messaged me and used an item on Ninfia, which is why I asked if Ardonye messaged Ninfia. Ardonye claims to have used the binoculars on Ninfia which showed that Ninfia visited Tiki (probably true), so Ardonye couldn't have used an item on me because we can only use one item at a time.

However, I think that Ardonye is experienced enough that if Ardonye were trying to kill me, they would try to cover it up by also sending me a message given what happened with T3tsuya, and given that I asked for the watching item the previous phase so I was probably planning to use it on someone and it seems fairly simple to take that precaution, especially considering I have been a popular protect target lately!

Also (this will be related, I promise!), Mr. Gerbear was NK'd and it doesn't really make sense for Mr. Gerbear to be NK'd if he was mafia, so I think that at the point where he was NK'd, he was town. However, the crime scene investigation for eleni's death has clues that lead to Mr. Gerbear being the killer, and also on the night that Mr. Gerbear was stunned, there was no NK.

People suggested that perhaps there was a role such as Mr. Alice's role that could cover up clues and frame someone through rollover, but Mr. Gerbear came back to life shortly after his death, and so if this was something mafia could do why didn't they continue after Mr. Gerbear revived? Instead there were rollovers and crime scene investigations that tied kills to high seraph, and then rollovers that tied attempted kills to Mr. Alice, but no rollovers that tied a kill to Mr. Gerbear. Perhaps mafia had an ability that allowed them to frame Mr. Gerbear for one kill, or something like that, which I think would make sense, but if we assume Mr. Gerbear was "responsible" for that kill either willingly or unwillingly, then:

N0: no kill
N1: eleni killed, flavor links to Mr. Gerbear
N2: Mr. Gerbear is stunned, no kill
(D2) Mr. Gerbear is lynched and flips mafia
N3: Ardonye is killed, flavor links to high seraph
N4: deo is killed, flavor links to high seraph; high seraph is killed and flips mafia
N5: failed kill on alcasync, flavor links to Mr. Alice
N6: failed kill on Cure (flavor inconclusive, I'll come back to this!)
N7: failed kill on Ninfia, flavor links to Mr. alice; Mr. Alice killed and flips mafia
N8: Five is killed, flavor links to cameras and pentagrams and tin foil
N9: Mr. Gerbear is killed, flavor links to cameras
N10: failed kill on alcasync, flavor links to wooden hydra carving

Regarding the kill attempt on Cure, the flavor had deep gashes that I think we originally guessed to be T3tsuya but if you consider the gashes to be knife wounds then this line:

Coward in uniform, not a word as they raise their stick again!

might refer to Mr. Alice in their police uniform and baton.

The latter three kills all seem to maybe lead towards Ardonye, which is supported by my watching item results.

So umm... this is all kind of a really long-winded way of saying that the pattern appears to be that there is a single NK sender that sends in all the kills until they die, however since Mr. Gerbear was NK'd I do think he was town at time of death. Since there was no NK when he was stunned, I don't think it was simply a matter of someone else sending in the NK and Mr. Gerbear being framed for it, I think the NK was actually going through Mr. Gerbear because if mafia has a scapegoat to use for NK's it doesn't make sense for them to fake a blocked NK just to get Mr. Gerbear mislynched.

Which is kind of a weird theory and I wouldn't have gone with it except that I think Ardonye has been sending in NKs but I don't know if Ardonye is actually... consciously sending in NKs? Especially considering the recent NK targets of Mr. Gerbear and Five are fairly unusual and I don't feel like Ardonye as mafia would have chosen those targets when we were going to lynch them shortly anyway.

Long story short, I think Ardonye did send in the kill on me but given Mr. Gerbear's situation, I am not actually sure what this means in terms of alignment. I think mafia possibly has a way to send NKs through other players and this may potentially have something to do with death considering dead people seem to have their own scenarios after death and the NK sender chains have switched only after the NK sender died.

And all of this might possibly be related to the reason why the ratio is obscured.

Okay, that is everything. I am really, really, really tired so I'm sorry if this is a stupid theory or if this post doesn't make sense or anything. I don't necessarily think this is the perfect truth, but maybe it is something we can start with and build off of? /)n(\

And even if the "mafia sends NK through other players" theory is true, I don't actually know how this helps us win, so um... ;v;

In any case I am going to bed now!

If I'm sending NKs, it was not with my knowledge. It could have been a byproduct of my resurrection (if someone used an ability instead of an item).

I did receive flavour hinting someone could be a ghost though so possession is out of the realm of impossibility.

Anyway I have to go back and look through my info again.

alcasync wrote:Ninfia, did you get a message from Ardonye last night?

I did not!

also I may have shot tiki. with a gun item. I had thought about doing it a couple nights ago, but went for five, who someone else shot first, then went to shoot lucas who someone else again shot first.

I figured chinomi would be the easiest target for us to lynch, to taking tiki out would be the next best choice.

still back reading

edit:

hmm, nye unwillingly sending in the nks is an interesting theory but I'm not sure it would be worth lynching her at this point for it? I mean if anyone has a stunning item it would be a better shot for us to lynch chi then stun nye if the game doesn't end?

Okay so...

Out of all of us, chinomi and Crypsis are the only ones who have not been killed/had kill attempts. This isn't a guarantee however, since mafia can 'fake' an attempt by investing an NK to fail and protecting one of their own to appear clean.

Questions that spring to mind:

How does Crypsis have so many protect items? I mean it's great they prevented the NK but just ??? Is it being mailed? Or picked up multiple times?

Also how many times was alca saved by Crypsis for that matter? Maybe I'm just really bad when I'm doctor but I usually don't protect townies that consistently (though our numbers are so few now...)

I feel like Crypsis has been really absent from thread. This isn't normally a cause for lynch for me except in early game, but it's suspicious for me given everything else.

Yeah so. I'm honestly believing chinomi over Crypsis at this point. I have my doubts because chinomi has fooled me before just by going "/JETPACKS AWAY" but........ yeah.

vote: Crypsis

Feel free to stun me whenever. My power won't work, but that's an acceptable trade-off to me because it's so infuriatingly puzzling to figure out now that I don't have as much free time as I would like.

Damn you hosts, for making this game 2 cool 4 me

Very interesting theory Alca.

If Ardonye targeted both you and Ninfia, we should probably lynch her today. Though, I still think we should kill Chinomi.

Crypsis is in posessin of an incredibly useful item still (unless she passed it on to you Alca), that I think should probably be used before we kill her. Also, I don't think she's mafia at all.

Tbh, looking at everything in the past few phases, Ardonye is seeming more and more like mafia. I reallyy want to know why she is so adamantly against lynching Chi, when the rest of us  were pretty much all in agreement that it's a good idea to get rid of all the non-clears first. Tiki and She-Ra were both town, so that just leaves Chinomi.


Also, I have had and used FOUR protect items this game. Crypsis having so many is not unusual at all.

If we're going to lynch someone, I'd really like to lynch Chinomi over Crypsis, and we can figure out what to do with Ardonye after Chinomi's flip. Someone should stun her like Ninfia suggested

Also, we're close to the end of the game. Literally why would crypsis protect+NK Alca AGAIN. There is... absolutely no logical reasoning for this at all. It'd be better to just kill Alca. We're at the point where mafia is defintely only one person (or two if it's chinomi and someone else). Continuing to do clever clearing strategies makes no sense and is a waste of the NK.

Also, protecting and NKing Alca doesn't make much sense as a clearing strategy, when she could protect and NK herself to clear herself.


Basically, I don't see why we should kill Crypsis at all, and I don't understand why you're defending Chinomi so much when she's literally the only good lynch option. Unless you'd rathr us lynch you?

edit edit: also it has long been established that Ninfia resurrected Ardonye with an item, but I can understand people forgetting that because the game has been going on kind of a while.

I think there's no point in keeping things from thread at this point.

Crypsis has, over the course of the game:

- Stunned Mr. Gerbear and potentially blocked a NK
- Discovered the locations of many items including the revive item and sent the location to me which I passed onto Cure/Ardonye/Ninfia
- Held onto what I imagine is the only revive item left in the game because I suggested she save it for reviving myself/Cure/Ardonye/Ninfia in the case that one of us dies
- Protected me twice (the second was with a protect item that I mailed to her as a trade for the watching item)
- Has been offering her items to myself and Cure
- Sent me the protection item which I used to protect Cure the phase Cure did the watching item experiment with me
- Sent me the vig kill item, which I am still holding onto.

It's the last point that makes me fairly certain that Crypsis is town, because I don't think mafia is in the business of mailing town vig kill items. ;v;

I don't think it's that odd that Saki has been exclusively protecting me at all because we're irl friends, and there are at least three protecting items available per individual and possibly more than that.

If we're going to lynch Crypsis, I agree with Cure that we should at least allow her to use or mail off her revive item, which I think is still on her person.

vote: chinomi

Also I have a stunning item and can stun Ardonye during the night.

A'ight guys host announcement.

You may now claim item names in thread. It's basically at the point where everyone knows all the item names anyway and I've seen people slip up and edit their posts a few times so to make it easier on us all, you can now talk about items calling them by the objects they are.

You still can't claim how to find items in thread, though.

Yeah, I honestly can't see Crypsis being mafia in any way, shape, or form, just because she's been so overwhelmingly town and at this point in the game "keeping up appearances" would be SO detrimental to her team if she was mafia. She just can't be mafia, there's no way.

There's so many first aid kits in this game. I myself have had and used four. I don't think Crypsis having so many protects and using them to protect exclusively town is scummy at all?

The revive item is the item I was talking about, yeah. I think it should probably be used sometime soon? Especially if Chi is somehow town, it can only help us to pad the ratio a little bit more.

Saki giving the gun to Alca is very pro-town. Ninfia shooting Tiki rather than anyone else is very pro-town (especially at this stage in the game, so I don't think she's been converted). Alca being NKed AGAIN when there's only six people left doesn't make SENSE as a mafia ploy, when mafia would really want to kill town off as quickly as possible at this point.

This leaves me, Ardonye, and Chinomi. I'm... not going to advocate killing/lynching myself, and Ardonye is hellbent on protecting Chinomi for some reason. It seems pretty cut and dried, unless something incredibly screwy is going on here.

I'm 99.9% sure that there's 1-2 mafia left.

If there's only one mafia left, it's Chinomi or Ardonye. If there's two mafia left, it's both of them. Ardonye flipped town initially so it's still just better to lynch chi first and then either stun or vig kill Ardonye tonight if the game doesn't end.

... and if the game STILL doesn't end after that, then... We figure out what to do when that happens.

I have a shovel and i'm giving the revive item to alca-nee. I can shovel Ardonye if alca-nee wants to revive!

also i protected alca-nee last night! she gave me the first aid kit and I gave her the binoculars and i wanted to make sure that she stayed alive to get her binocular results!

but yeah so like I don't mind getting lynched but not this phase so that i can give away the photograph please! ^w^)/

vote: chinomi

I still have a pair of binoculars as well (and the fucking bell that doesn't seem to do shit???).

I can revive if you would like to stun! Who should I revive though? Would eleni be a good option, since she's spent the most time being dead? ;v;

vote: chinomi sorry im absent but beans and parsnips etc etc

i have also been beans and parsnips (though more like cranberries and hops but whatever)

Honestly, I think... anyone is good to revive, as long as they didn't flip mafia. Eleni would be good since she's been dead most of the game though, yeah.