Paw Enforcement [BEARS WIN]

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Mr. Alice wrote:i pretty much read dran's post the same way alca did btw, so im side eyeing that PRETTY HARD....

and i think mr. gerbear literally won as maf last time just by being busy with his life so yall best watch out (i actually have no idea at the end of that game i think i just blocked it out)

edit: i trust no one not even me

katze wrote:Also, Lux, as I suspected, someone with no bulletproof is gonna get shot at if they're the only one not bulletproof. I still think it's better for maf to just slowly chip away at people than to lower defenses one at a time. But that's just my opinion.

katze wrote:-Lux was very willing to get me down to bulletproof early on and sort of backpedaled a bit when I questioned it, though admittedly gave pretty good reason.

Luxaria wrote:Imo, mafia held the night kill to respond to town rather than show their influence one way or another, on top of the potential for information. I honestly expect them to either hold the kill again next night phase or NK someone with a killproof, rather than anyone we might "lynch" today, especially if that someone is an "inactive". Unless they're legit concerned with ratio-thinning since this game, which isn't unreasonable, but not likely until N3/N4 imo.

Luxaria wrote:You were the only one in both categories. I'd trust you to use a gun, and I want to see what you'd do and how mafia would respond to you losing killproof.
Edit: Further, the shitty part is you are actually active so you dying would be a setback, but I actually don't think mafia is as likely to kill you immediately after losing killproof. I could be 100% wrong on this, though, but this is the best I could do with the mechanics. Who would you rather shred their killproof and give them a gun?

Luxaria wrote:@ katze:
What I've been trying to say is I don't know if they will kill you right away, but I trust you to use the gun

Luxaria wrote:As to the question, what do they actually gain from taking you out? I assume you'd use the gun right away. No matter what it's going to go off, and whoever you hit isn't guaranteed to be mafia, if you're town. You're more likely to hit town, at that. Leaving you up means they prep the town numbers and open up more targets and more to work with. Killing you thins the ratio, sure, but it also shows your alignment and that helps town more than going, "Well, what is katze?"

Luxaria wrote:I said I wanted to vote for you because you were in this position where I believed you were trustworthy for now from D1 reads, had the best chance of survival, and I wanted to see how mafia would react to you no longer having a bulletproof.
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If alca is town, I actually won't be surprised if mafia does kill her tonight because she is a prominent voice and that's worth the alignment flip to limit chatter and theories.
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Tl;dr: If you were the person with the gun, you are obviously active and going to act with it. I'm saying you felt pro-town and least likely to die, and if you were to die then I'd count on the shot to go to a reasonable/pro-town target.

Luxaria wrote:First off, whether alca lives or dies tonight will be very interesting. I've thought before that mafia is more likely to try and strip away a few killproofs instead of thinning town so that way between that, guns, and lynches, it means they have a lot of options and don't need to prep a kill. I also think they're smart enough to realize this benefits them more for a variety of reasons largely due to economy of actions and denial of information. This said, alca is a centralizing figure, so silencing her might be too valuable. I think that course of action would be a mistake, personally, but it's a possibility.

katze wrote:-Dylan mentioned he trusted Lux more over alca.
-Dylan mentioned that Lux and katze couldn't be maf together.  

katze wrote:-Lux questioned me being mafia rather early on without much of a reason in general.

Luxaria wrote:Vote: No Vote or probably swap to Vote: katze, because first off that name isn't even close to being AMERICAN.

Luxaria wrote:PLAYERS I'D GIVE A GUN:
ezzelin(?), alcasync, Aeiou, katze

PLAYERS I'D LYNCH:
Mr. Gerbear, drandahl(?), katze

Thus why I said I'd vote katze if not No Vote. If I voted katze, that opens me up for getting a gun, which is arguably more pro-town from my perspective if I'm not sure about Dylan getting a gun and want to challenge that.

Luxaria wrote: I'm also willing to either vote for katze or even myself, but since we've kind of mellowed out to consensus (if a bit delayed), I don't want to go against the No Vote pattern unless we're down for it.

Luxaria wrote:Okay, straight up since we have 40 minutes, and thread keeps saying one of us (not that we have a whole lot of different people posting), what are we feeling between you, me, or even someone else delivering a vote? And is it on us, someone else, or just katze as I suggested? Like feel free to propose another option. Katze is just mine from my own personal reads I posted. She hasn't even been in here to weigh in on them, for that matter.

Luxaria wrote:You were the only one in both categories. I'd trust you to use a gun, and I want to see what you'd do and how mafia would respond to you losing killproof. That's just what it was. It's a weird cross of reads because I have to pick someone that's in the range of "I trust them to use this" but "I don't mind opening them up to dying", which lets me learn more about your position, alignment, and how you'd perform. It's more a compliment in that if I have to lynch someone and give them a gun in the process, I'd rather it be you than someone else.

Does that explain it?

Edit: Further, the shitty part is you are actually active so you dying would be a setback, but I actually don't think mafia is as likely to kill you immediately after losing killproof. I could be 100% wrong on this, though, but this is the best I could do with the mechanics. Who would you rather shred their killproof and give them a gun?

Luxaria wrote:What I've been trying to say is I don't know if they will kill you right away, but I trust you to use the gun. If you had said something sooner we could've worked things out a bit better, though, or had more time to discuss it. Problem is also not many other people made a break-down to a similar degree, so my mention of you kind of became a bigger focus.

Luxaria wrote:I know you were busy. I was just trying to say why this had become a discussion point in your absence. I had actually commented that I would have preferred to get you to weigh in before anything else, since this is stripping your killproof for a gun if that happened.

Luxaria wrote:I said I wanted to vote for you because you were in this position where I believed you were trustworthy for now from D1 reads, had the best chance of survival, and I wanted to see how mafia would react to you no longer having a bulletproof. Had I voted on you, you'd get a gun and lose bulletproof.

You are obviously active. If you are town as you claim, which I was willing to put enough faith in from thread + your activity to say I'd trust you with a gun, then you'd be using the gun in a pro-town manner. You'd use the gun this night phase. It would be guaranteed to go off. It would never not go off under any circumstance of inbox or action priority or other. It will always go off.
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Tl;dr: If you were the person with the gun, you are obviously active and going to act with it. I'm saying you felt pro-town and least likely to die, and if you were to die then I'd count on the shot to go to a reasonable/pro-town target.

Luxaria wrote:PLAYERS I'D GIVE A GUN:
ezzelin(?), Aeiou, katze, drandahl(?)

[PLAYERS I'M]NOT SURE [WHETHER I WANT TO SHOOT OR NOT]
Aeiou, Rasei, drandahl(?), katze(?)
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2. Use one gun on Subset A (katze, Tiki the Troll, Mr. Gerbear) and one gun on Subset B (Mr. Alice, Aeiou, Mr. Gerbear).

I'm still not super fond of that, but it's something. Mainly I've been debating if I want to rotate Dylan in for someone, somewhere. This is tricky since there are only two people I don't want to give a gun to but also want to shoot, and they're both in here. So I counterbalanced that by two people I don't mind receiving guns that are also in my "not sure" on if I want to shoot them. Rasei was up for consideration, but I think I'll hold off on wanting her shot. I'm open to ideas.

Luxaria wrote:Dylan and katze are in no-man's-land where I appreciate their contributions, but I think I don't mind opening them up.

Luxaria wrote:Yeah, I thought that before, which is why I kind of tried to counter-balance my suggestions of "do not want gun' vs "do want gun" so we didn't run as much risk of shooting two people we didn't want to have guns

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