Paw Enforcement [BEARS WIN]

The jerk said he couldn't come in tomorrow even through I asked for it off weeks ago because non!Sammy sister birthday

Wow ok then, so our ratio is still in tact which is great but why didnt anyone die? I assume Gerry shot lux? Unless he changed his mind and mafia shot lux and gerry shot ninfia? Even though both are still alive I was hoping for an alignment flip and this makes me nervous because I still dont know who is mafia. If Lux is mafia it's obvious she wouldnt be killed, but why didn't gerry die?

Hmm I think this needs broken down because I feel lie theres a few possibilities

I did shoot Lux, yes, so the mafia shot Ninfia. Hm.

how the fuck do you drink a double double AMERICA EXPLAIN!!!

Smoothie

Ok so I wanted to write up a big breakdown post of possibilities and implications of what could've happened while considering all three people in rollover being each alignment but my husband wants to watch a shoe together so hopefully I can post it later ;^; sorry

I don't think I cam handle doing it in chunks on mobile whole he's cooking lunch either haha
So if anyone else wants to that'd be nice but if not I'll try to do that soon. I feel like there's a lot of angles to look at this at. Also where is lux?

even if i don't particularly like in n out, I WILL SUPPORT IT BECAUSE AMERICA

Anyway

I think it's incredibly difficult to say why mafia shot Ninfia instead of Lux or me

Is Lux actually mafia??

Is Ninfia actually mafia?? And they shot her for us to think she's mafia? Or maybe she's town and they're trying to get us to think that to lynch her?? WIFOM WIFOM

Because I'm not mafia and I shot Lux but you're only really gonna have to take my word for it

Anyway both Lux and Ninfia now have guns so we should probably discuss who's getting shot

MARCH IS ROLL UP THE RRRRRRRIM TO WIN YOU ANIMALS, A COFFEE WILL ALWAYS BE A WINNER WHEN ITS FUCKING MARC--



....., you win some you lose some. also in all fairness tim horton's coffee isn't that good I don't think it would win against a hamburger of any sort in terms of taste. in terms of a physical confrontation though, coffee would win against a burger because the burger would become soggy but the coffee maintains its integrity.

that aside, I presume the mafia shot me because my activity has been higher since my two phase oopsie and I'm trying my best to help town? I'm gonna write a real post but just throwing some stuff out there in the mean time.

ALSO I DON;T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH A GUN WE DONT HAVE GUNS HERE SHTI

possibilities:

Maf!Lux, Town!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

Maf!Lux, Maf!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

Maf!Lux, Town!Gerry, Maf!Ninfia

Town!Lux, Maf!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

Town!Lux, Town!Gerry, Maf!Ninfia

Town!Lux, Town!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

I think that's all the possible combinations of these three players as of now? let me know if I missed one!

going forward, for my own spec I'm gonna remove the ones with me as mafia because I know I'm not mafia, but I guess feel free to spec with those possibilities as you will.

1. Maf!Lux, Town!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

2. Maf!Lux, Maf!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

3. Town!Lux, Town!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

4. Town!Lux, Maf!Gerry, Town!Ninfia

I took the liberty of sorting the possibilies here from what I feel is most likely to least likely. so, lets take a look!

1. I think this is the most likely scenario at the moment. Lux, from as far as I can tell has been pretty scummy. for me, her biggest maf!tell is aggressiveness. In this game, she has had several confrontations with other players and I kind of worry she's noped out of the game entirely. I hope you're still around lux even if you are frustrated!

in the first day phase, Dylan subtly aligned himself with her over Alca, and we know his alignment. While this is kind of shaky evidence from the beginning of the game, I feel that its worth noting, especially when examining how hard he pushed the narrative that I was town. I wonder if initially the mafia considered trying to kill me off early and wanted to have a couple people say "well I said I thought she might be town early on..." but this is probably reading too far into what the mafia was thinking about doing and putting myself at the center of the narrative. regardless, there's my thoughts on that.

In terms of recent phases, I think Ezz and I have been on the same page about a bunch of things.

ezzelin wrote:I agree with Ninfia that I don't trust Lux with a gun right now. She's been basically dominating the thread, but all we've gotten is more dead townies, one at her own hands, and the other one from last night someone who thought Lux was mafia.
This makes me uncomfortable.

Additionally, she was okay to shoot Tiki partially because he was sick and that impaired his ability to be active, but at the same time she says that, I quote "Rasei is out of the picture for me until she can fix her keyboard". So some people can be killed for low activity while others not, without providing a solid reason? There are still two mafia, Rasei is just as likely to be mafia as Tiki could have been, even if she doesn't have a working keyboard. Her partner-in-crime could very well be sending in NKs in the meantime.

I think that the inconsistency in reasoning and action that lux has taken throughout the game has been another big flag for me. While we are, of course, people who are inherently inconsistent, Town!Lux has always been pretty good at laying out plans and sticking to them. I feel as if that behaviour isn't as evident here. That is to say it isn't only one player's responsibility, but! I dunno. It feels off when it gets down to it.

re:tiki's death, I'm of two minds on her reasoning. Him being sick makes sense as a reason to kill him from ym perspective. as maf and as town vig I have put people out of their misery before.  On the other hand the mafia neatly murdered two townies and lux was at the center of it. she shot tiki and had that conversation with katze. while it is a little messy for a maf player to do that, she also was in a position where she could defend herself and she's a competent player so I could see the risk/reward lure there.

her reasoning for killing tiki loses me at it being a security policy though. she didn't give him the chance to actually act before killing him and it feels kinda off. smells bear-ly reasonable at all.

I will note again that I am sorry if you're frustrated Lux! I know that it isn't nice to have everyone pointing fingers at you ;u;.

god its getting late I need to finish this post.

2. I don't particularly get the feeling that gerry is maf. he hasn't done anything that's pinged as maf!gerry for me, and also he followed through on what he said he'd do during the previous day phase.

well that was considerably shorter than the previous point.

3. I think at this point the chances we're all town and chomping at each other is pretty low. It is, of course, a possibility, but not one that I think is particularly likely at this point even just from looking how many players we have left. statistically its unlikely we've managed that.

and finally

4. like I said earlier, I just don't feel like gerry is maf at this point. I think if he is, he deserves to win tho, he's played really well.

so I guess all things said and done, I may as well kick us off with a vote: Luxaria

I believe its likely she's maf and we're better off lynching her than shooting her.

speaking of shooting, I'm going to make a point to not hint at who I plan to shoot tonight or if I intend to not shoot anyone. However, I would like to hear thread feedback on who people think I should shoot and why. thank you everyone! <3

also yes, this is a triple post, fite me.

I dont know if I can even get myself together after that shoe comment.

1.a.1 - Town!Gerry shoots Maf!Lux
     - Mafia shoots Town!Ninfia (to protect lux, although idk why not shoot gerry but takes away fia's vest)
   a.2 - Mafia shoots Maf!Ninfia (to protect Lux and ?? get a gun?? leaves both maf open tho)

1.b.1 - Town!Gerry shoots Town!Lux (confused/mislead)
       - Mafia shoots Town!Ninfia (????)
  b.2 - Mafia shoots Maf!Ninfia (leaves two town open and gives mafia a gun??)

1.c.1 - Town!Gerry shoots town or maf Ninfia (possibility but there wouldnt be a reason to lie?? so this is unlikely)
       - Mafia shoots town!Lux (thinking she would've lost bulletproof, following this line of thought theres no reason to assume lux would be mafia in this specific scenario)

2.a.1 - Maf!Gerry shoots Maf!Lux (what?? that'd be quite the ruse?)
       - Maf shoots town!Ninfia (Ninfia could only be town in this scenario, mafia wouldnt want to shoot either gerry or lux because they'd lose a member so they pick a townie)

2.b.1 - Maf!Gerry shoots Town!Lux
       - Mafia shoots town!Ninfia (they wouldnt want to shoot Gerry and maybe they wouldnt want Lux's alignment to show and turn around on Gerry for shooting lux?)
  b.2 - Mafia shoots mafia!ninfia (mafia would get a gun but at risk of losing both their bulletproofs)

I was going to do points on Maf!Gerry shooting ninfia but its just the 2 theories reversed. If Gerry was maf then he'd basically be making both shots anyway.

I think that should cover everything?
Anyway I'm not convinced Lux is maf although there's been some really good points made. Idk if its gut feelings or just wanting Lux to be town lol just since I've trusted her. I dont really have anything to back that feeling up though other than lux trying hard to help but mafia can do that too. Which is why I dont know what's holding me back from thinking she's mafia. However even if lux is town we do gain the most info out of her lynch because it cuts down on a lot of other possibilities since most of this game's discussion has been around Lux so I think lynching her (unless we can come up with a target altogether we think for sure is mafia other than lux)

I do think at least one of the three is mafia and it makes more sense for one of gerry or lux to be mafia vs ninfia
And if gerry or lux is mafia I'd say the last maf is one of the quieter players? Which would leave Blaire and rasei. Out of the two I'd probably say Blaire is but that's still just based on Rasei's outburst so idk ;^;

Maybe Ill go more player in depth later. I think I like when everyone votes and theres no extra gun unless we could be sure to have mafia sit out. So I think everyone voting is a good strategy to follow. Also at this point Lux is the only one with a gun so if she gets lynched then there would be no extra guns in the night.

e: I forgot about Ninfia's gun alskhflshfa Im bad at keeping track of this omg