tl;dr at the bottom, because that's now a thing I've been trying to do.I fell asleep, napped, feel awful because I napped (I don't know how other people have "enjoyable" naps tbh), tried to wake up, did so with varying amounts of success, and now I'm here.
I probably won't go as in-depth since I'm not in the mood**, so:
re: Lulu's post, since I didn't hop into it last time I replied:
lulu wrote:Firstly, I'm personally fond of tunneling b/c I really hate voting for someone and letting them go then having them later turn out to be mafia.
I feel this so much.
You've been the primary proponent for flipping Kiyoko over, and while a number of people (myself included) have posted in the past two phases voicing intrigue over her position in the thread and commenting on it being unusual for her to be alive for a number of factors, one thing I'm curious to hear is your interpretation on the current ratio. We still haven't heard from Kiyoko in a while, and given how things have panned out... it seems reasonable/probable that she might have died somewhere and the death was obscured? If so, the current ratio reflects that no mafia have died. Where does that line up with your comments/reads on her?
If Kiyoko is truly dead, one thing I'm worried about is mafia attempting to spin the obscurity of her death into their favor and invalidate all things she posted previously, which, given how the thread operated for a few phases, was a major guiding light. I guess alternatively with that perspective, there's also the chance that mafia might have abused this by using Kiyoko as a means to broadcast information even about themselves. As far as I know, most of her reads were based on interpretation, and I recall last Gakuen having some scum-sounding town roles, and some mafia roles that could go either way. Personally, my role in that game, as a town, was extremely negative/scummy sounding.
Is it possible that Kiyoko
was left alive for the sole purpose of propagating information that mafia wanted shared? I don't know. Unless there's some alignment obscuring going on with regards to the past two phases, I believe the ratio reflects that Kiyoko was honestly town, pushed a lynch on drandahl, and had role information fed to her by other players. I guess I'm just left wondering why she wasn't killed sooner, given her role. Mafia had seemingly demonstrated they had additional firepower (which I feel they wouldn't use on N0 unless they had a plan for it or could use it again?), but then presumably waited (by choice or due to mechanics?) to off Kiyoko. Again, assuming she's dead, which seems likely.
Either way, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this, Lulu, considering you've been the biggest one throwing side-glances in her direction. I'm not going to say I don't agree with some of your points, but I am curious what you think if she ends up dead and the ratio reveal is accurate.
Which leads into...
re: Voting
As of this post, the options are angelstar, aeiou, and Sammiya all at one vote each (tbh this is kind of weird that there are so few votes with 15 players left alive).
But... one thing I kind of want to check is Kiyoko's information/reads on various players, which poses a conundrum. If she had reason to believe they were town based off of all the roles she had seen, then these are obviously roles that are both active, pro-town, and ones we'll need since the ratio is starting to wind down against our favor.
On the other hand, if we want to see if they're mafia or not to figure out how and what kind of information was being fed to Kiyoko, then lynching these players gains some credence. So with regards to the current vote... I'm not inclined to follow the vote on Aeiou just yet since though Kiyoko's read on her was weaker, mainly I'm not sure if I can trust Lulu right now and I want to hear more from her with respect to my questions. Angel isn't a bad choice for the sake of figuring out what two players were in the spotlight on D3, but on the other hand... Cur3's initial "because triangles" isn't strong enough for me. If he has a stronger reason, which he has alluded to, I can be persuaded.
I'm considering the vote on Sammiya for Ninfia's reasons, who I feel fairly trusting/town-leaning towards, and also because Sammiya flipping helps characterize the nature of Kiyoko's reads. The interpretation of Sammiya's role and thus alignment is also hard to weigh since, iirc, Kiyoko's read was based off of her knowledge of other roles in the game--which most of us do not have.
One other thing I just noticed since Ninfia highlighted it. Kiyoko's last post is before Sammiya claimed her role power to the thread. Meaning Kiyoko has never been around (whether able or not) to verify Sammiya's claimed role. The only other person that might have been able to comment is our neutral, who didn't receive it. For that matter, we don't know if Kiyoko actually received a lollipop (which
does insinuate a buff, since receiving an item that can be used is kind of like a pseudo-inventor role) or just responded to Sammiya's mention of "Did you enjoy my lollipop" as a way of saying, "Oh, that role came from you, then." However, hm... Kiyoko did accept the claim reasonably quickly without making sure Sammiya was bluff-claiming (though I feel like doing this is suicide if you didn't send in a role), which does suggest the mention of a lollipop had significance...
I'm just going to build a ladder into space at this point, so to save you all:
Vote: Sammiya for Ninfia's reasons and the ones I dug into above. Willing to change to someone else if there are more compelling arguments.
@ Sammiya
One thing causing me to reconsider my vote is the possibility of giving you one more chance to act tonight and having someone receive your lollipop to verify your claim. That said, I'm a bit apprehensive because there's no guarantee that your lollipop, if real, wouldn't get bussed or stolen or eaten by idk the candy monster (aka Blaire's alter-ego). There's also the chance that the person claiming to receive it might just be a mafia--but if we publicly decide in thread which player (or players) to send it to... Augh. I'm just worried because I want to give you the benefit of the doubt where your situation might just be circumstance of bad luck, but if we're here again tomorrow and there's still no lollipop it gets very awkward.
Tl;dr: Want to hear Lulu's thoughts on Kiyoko if she was in fact killed and the ratio reflects her towniness. Curious as to mafia's plan by leaving Kiyoko alive, whether it was intentional or a matter of circumstance--and in either of those circumstances, whether the plan was enacted with an intent to utilize Kiyoko's clearing towards one end or another. To that end, curious to see the flips of players that Kiyoko cleared early on. Voting Sammiya since Ninfia's reasons seem reasonable, Sammiya was cleared early on, and her claimed role was never backed by Kiyoko, meaning we have no real proof of what she's saying.
** I always say something like this, and then I make a long post that does the opposite of what I claim. smh.
Edit: This isn't quite an edit, but I couldn't figure out where to jam it in, so... Also had a thought re: Kiyoko being left alive longer. If she was theoretically attracting a lot of pro-town role actions, since town would want to vet themselves with her, another reason to leave her up would be that mafia knows that doing so would essentially alert them to players with active roles. Not to mention that navigating night phases becomes easier when they know most (or at least a few) pro-town effects are consolidated on a single person each night.
Edit: Actual edit, Cure posted. Meaning I'd be tying the vote at Sammiya against Aeiou. I am still okay with this vote.