Posts : 2650 Location : Under the bridge. Humor : Adequate.
Mafia Stats Games Hosted: 1 Games Played: 16
Well, looking at the role lineup again, could this somehow be tied to the Mason or Tailor?
And if it's the Tailor making the ratio change, that just means my results were 100% wrong. :(
And yeah, that's my biggest concern, Cure...unless Plottie is Nico? After all, we're not allowed to claim, or even give strong hints. Still, Plotstickers seems pretty set on her vote.
Cure wrote: This is actually super scummy. Telling everyone to vote together always deprives us from the MAIN way of figuring out who is mafia. Their voting targets. I will not be moving my vote.
I believe you may have misunderstood what I said. Because there is a cut off, we can still analyze how people voted before the cut off. No information is lost, only gained. As long as we all agree that how the votes stand at X:00pm is a binding talley, then we can analyze how people voted by that hour.
Cure wrote: There's no way to guarantee that everyone will do this or have decided on an initial target up to that point. Mafia can just lay low until late in the phase and harmlessly hop on this designated bandwagon. I don't like this idea. I don't like it at all.
It would require total buy in from everyone, with not voting before the first cut off seen as scummy as hell. Its an idea that would only work if everyone fully committed to it. Then we would get more information. If everyone can't commit, then yes, it is a bad idea.
Cure, I am really curious why you are voting on me because I posted quickly in case of another skip, when previously you said you would lynch tiki if AEIOU flipped town, and then weren't you one of the ones suggesting that AEIOU only looks town, and is actually maf? Why target me other these two that you expressed an interest in voting in not long ago?
tl;dr over here has been working on NaNo so an angry house cat doesn't claw her face off.
I'm kind of exhausted from writing, but immediate thoughts:
I... am actually inclined to think that revival on Aeiou was town-originating.
The ratio was updated after both Rasei and Vowels had revived to reflect 8:3. If the revival were a mafia revival that converted (and looked super obvious in the process, tbh), the ratio would've shown 7:4 at the time (edit: though I guess this would look super obvious if it were a role?). If it was a silent conversion, then it's possible Aeiou was converted without us being aware of it...
But now the ratio is showing 7:4 as opposed to the 8:3 we saw last phase. If this is a true ratio, then there's no way in a 12 player game mafia has both a revival role and a separate recruiting or traitor role. That feels... way too swingy to me. I guess arguably nothing rules it out since we don't know and can't claim what roles town might have that might warrant both revival and recruit/traitor, but this is my opinion.
This said, I agree that the quick revive on Aeiou does seem fishy. I can actually understand it not being used on deo since, to the reviver, it would seem deo had a phase-end which would just be really bad to bring back if they refreshed abilities (the revive might not, though, so idk). Why it wasn't used on Rasei, I'm not sure. Even if you're town and see Aeiou flip and immediately suspect it was either a mislynch (due to inaccurate information) or a mafia gambit to lynch a town, I feel like it's more likely a town reviver would, in theory, wait to see how the dust settles before using it. However, if Aeiou wasn't the real Nico, then that Nico still hasn't made a fuss about Aeiou (unless plot's vote now suggest she's Nico and hounding Aeiou, idk).
So this said... re: recruiter or traitor. From what I know of the girls from the anime, Nico would be the one I'd liken to be the traitor. I'm not sure where that fits into the role list on the front page, though, but that'd be my guess. If the Nico was a traitor, they might've been okay with Aeiou flipping as Nico as well. This would mean mafia I guess knew there was a traitor in town and/or that they were Nico (or guessed at the identity)? Does mafia usually know of a traitor? I know I told mafia in Snowball Bash, but that's because I started mafia off with fewer members, but had the ratio show as the full 3 mafia to avoid making it obvious when someone converted (read: if Ninfia converted upon failed kill last night, in this case).
I... feel like the recruiter effect would be more plausible if it's an extension/twist of the mason role listed on the front page, from what I know of masons. Which I really don't want to be the case, tbh, because that makes this game all kinds of screwy and scary as shit. The other option would be as I think Tiki said in that maybe the tailor screws up the ratio to some degree? I'm not quite sure how that'd work and don't find it as likely, but it's not the most unreasonable explanation. Also not sure what sequence of actions would mean that the tailor affected ratio, and/or meanwhile Aeiou was either tailored or had her appearance used in Tiki's results, and that affects the ratio by... idk. I'll consider pursuing this tomorrow.
So, too lux; didn't read version:
I feel like the revive on Aeiou is more likely to be town originating solely due to the fact that there was also a conversion, and I don't think mafia would have both a conversion and revive in a small game like this. Maybe if the role disappearances/replacements on plot and Sammiya were actually role thefts and mafia yanked a revive, but so far both have said their new roles are at least comparable? Whereas I feel like if one of them lost a revive there would be a more looming sense of "this really goddamn sucks" since revive roles are godsend.
I feel like the flavor and role listings of the game are more likely to suggest a recruitment role than a traitor, unless certain variables line up such that Nico (or some other girl, but she's the only one I can see fitting the flavor of a traitor from what I know) is a traitor role and mafia were aware and... tailored Aeiou to be Nico, and then a (maybe town?) revive happened on Aeiou. The other version would be the same effects on Aeiou, but instead of a traitor there was a recruiter, and Nico was chosen randomly. If there was a recruiter, I feel like Fia is the only one I would expect to still be town in this scenario since the mafia would not NK and try to recruit the same target in one night. Maybe we can get a better feel for her situation when she posts.
If there were a recruitment and it wasn't a traitor re: Ninfia or revive conversion re: Aeiou, I feel like I'd rather dodge the WIFOM into space of possible/probable targets for recruitment, given the NKs in this game so far. Meaning I'd rather pursue leads from the pre-conversion phases. So pending whatever Ninfia has to say, I want to put more thought into Duck and their comments tomorrow when my mind's not full of these role what-ifs. Also still intrigued by whatever happened between Aeiou and Tiki. I'll muse more on the stuns and other possibilities to account for the current 7:4 tomorrow, but these are my thoughts for now.
Posts : 446 Location : Spirits and Such Consultation Office Humor : Greatest Psychic of the 21st Century
Mafia Stats Games Hosted: 0 Games Played: 10
Luxaria wrote:Maybe if the role disappearances/replacements on plot and Sammiya were actually role thefts and mafia yanked a revive, but so far both have said their new roles are at least comparable?
That's definitely a possibility. At the very least, mafia has a role that resembles mine if they didn't outright copy/steal it. Regardless, they 100% used it.
I'm not feeling very well right now gomen so I'm gonna try my best to post my thoughts tomorrow before rollover. One thing before I go though...
Vowels wrote: I don't know what sort of time-space shenanigans are happening but atm I'd rather not out my target in case it outs a town with a protective role.
I'm interested to know why you think this.
Edit: I mean, I think I understand but I'm not sure soo
Entelechy wrote: Cure, I am really curious why you are voting on me because I posted quickly in case of another skip, when previously you said you would lynch tiki if AEIOU flipped town, and then weren't you one of the ones suggesting that AEIOU only looks town, and is actually maf? Why target me other these two that you expressed an interest in voting in not long ago?
Nevermind, Cure, I'm caught up on the thread, and it seems obvious enough why you wouldn't want to vote for Tiki since he reads pretty clearly as investigative, and you've talked about AIOU already.
I will try to get my own thoughts up a bit (Battling a stomachache that's making thinking more difficult than usual).
Posts : 1320 Location : Stardew valley Humor : t!catfacts
Mafia Stats Games Hosted: 2 Games Played: 16
Cure wrote: where are lux and ninfia. :OOOOO
plotstickers wrote: I'M SCARED. I'M MAKING MORE THAN ONE POST PER PHASE, & NINFIA AND TL;DR AREN'T HERE!!!
Ninfia wrote: Also, my final exam is on saturday so I might be a little scarce around then! ;w;
Ninfia wrote:that being said, I'm gonna be scarce tonight since I have an exam tomorrow so if I'm posting a bunch, I'm procrastinating on studying and you should all yell at me.
Ninfia wrote: I read everything over and don't really have anything to add but I want to vote before I get back to studying!!! ;w;~
plz.
I've really loosely backread. Getting properly caught up now and a big ol' post is coming up!
Posts : 1320 Location : Stardew valley Humor : t!catfacts
Mafia Stats Games Hosted: 2 Games Played: 16
/pulls plot into my arms protectively and whispers Kaguya no shiro de odoritai
ill protect u beary well. i promise.
Cure wrote:... :T
thought: ninfia might be a traitor role that converts when a kill attempt is made on her.
Ninfia wrote: well I mean a lynch on my at this point would give the town absolutely zero information, and would pretty much be a wasted day phase regardless. shrugs.
Ninfia wrote:my ability is primarily passive.
PLZ.
okay so you may notice that since early game I've been claiming that my ability is passive and that the town wouldn't get information from lynching me. HM. If I were a traitor or mafia, I would have absolutely no reason to claim this. At least, from my perspective I was hoping that some sharp town would notice my hints and would gather that a lynch or kill attempt on me would end up this way, because I didn't want to waste the town's time on a lynch on me. Also, as lux said, the idea that there is a traitor/recruit and a mafia revive in this is ludicrous.
as we've seen I've survived a NK attempt, which to me reads as the mafia attempting to get closer to end game and take out the more speculative players. It's interesting because I haven't really actually pressed anyone this game, partially because of all the shenanagins and also because the town has really only had one complete day phase so far and that lynch went to Aeiou and seemed like a good idea based on Tiki's results.
basically, what I'm saying is that we're incredibly lucky that the mafia didn't pick up on my hints and hit me instead of cure who would seemingly end the next day phase, because the ratio would be 6:4, then 5:4 with the next nk and we'd be in some scary fucking territory though. I want to love Live not Love Die :(. I'm not going to say anything else about my ability, but I mean ;) come at me again if you want mafia I'm ripped as hell.
OKAY NOW WITH THAT OUT OF THE WAY TIME FOR NINFIA APPROVED AND STAMPED GOING DOWN THE PLAYER LIST AND PROVIDING THOUGHTS ON EACH ONE TIME:
Rasei - Clearly town it seems so that's pretty neato. way to do that whole being alive thing. What do you think of what's going on rn/what are your suspicions as someone who got to come back?
Lux - was oddly quiet early game, but they were a bunch of night phases and I know I'm particularly bad for not being super active during night phases so I'll try not to throw rocks from my glass house over here.
plot - I think plot's been acting really town and being more active than usual so I'm not actually really suspicious of plot at all. Vote on vowels which I'm gonna get into more with Tiki and Aeiou so... I'll ask: are you voting for vowels for role related reasons? or because you still believe Tiki? tell me plot OwO /HOLDS AND WHISPERS SHUNJOU ROMANTIC
me - it me.
Tiki - Okay so, I'm a little confused about the Tiki vs Aeiou situation because the whole thing just..... reads strangely to me. As a mafia, Tiki's actions don't make sense. He's trying super hard to be helpful and he's doing so in a pretty transparent way. However, Aeiou has flipped town, and no one has...... really made a fuss that I feel like would be more apparent if the real nico was standing up. However, plot's vote is also pretty firm so perhaps that's plot saying that? I'll wait for plot's response to my questions.
Cure - Mostly hasn't been pinging my radar which.... does always make me a little leery of cure because she's known to not be suspicious until it's too late. However she's also not really... had much chance to do anything either because of how mangled early game was? I essentially have no reason to or not to vote for cure at this point. I... wouldn't be surprised if the recruit was her though? but that really depends on who the maf are.
Five - Hasn't been posting a lot but that's not necessarily abnormal when she doesn't have role information, I think, so I'm not sure what to say. hm.
Aeiou - Depending on plot's response, I could be inclined to vote for Aeiou, but at this point it seems they are Nico?
Sammiya - Has been pretty quiet so I don't really have an opinion of her at this point? I am known to tunnel sammie for this reason so I'm trying not to do that. However, given the mafia's targets of quieter players I almost wouldn't be surprised if they picked her as a recruit in order to let her kinda coast by? Could be convinced to vote Sammie.
Entelechy - tbh while I see what Cure is saying about Duck's voting idea seeming scummy it doesn't really strike me as a strange move for duck in particular. Duck and I hang our irl, and well, this is something they've mentioned before-- wanting to try and organize town around false votes and create strategies based on that. It could be a maf or town move, sure, but that isn't really what strikes me as the most scummy thing. I'm still pretty leery of that quick vote on me. I could be inclined to vote for Duck today.
Lucas -
[12:51:36 AM] lucasssss: I wish i could like [12:51:42 AM] lucasssss: Go to canada [12:51:47 AM] lucasssss: And fell u [12:52:05 AM] lucasssss: "hayley u r so cool u should do it professionally"
I will absolutely not vote lucas today, I love him.
The recruitment kinda puts a lot of my reads into question though, because at this point someone I wasn't suspicious of now could be maf which is worrisome. I'm gonna keep my eye out this phase, but I guess we'll see? I'm gonna be out and about for a few hours today but I'll be back to vote well before rollover.
It was pretty obvious that the role I got had to be Deo's role (and rasei probably just targeted deo's corpse and made him into a pretty accessory for me. how horrifying), as the item is entirely passive.
@Ninfia - Thanks for confirming that you are indeed a bulletproof role as I thought. Something everyone should keep in mind is that traitor roles are often bulletproof until targeted for a kill in which they convert (sometimes the initial ratio reflects the traitor or does not update in order to keep them from being outed as soon as they convert (chi in lit maf, me in snowball bash) but I'm not sure how ezz decided to do it.). I'm not saying I think you're mafia for sure now, but I'm definitely not ruling you out as the traitor, especially since you survived a kill and then the ratio changed.
Tbh the person I'm most inclined to believe is town at this point is Plot, actually. And Tiki, because Tiki is reading extremely differently from how he does when he's mafia and there's really no reason for a mafia team + tiki to pull the stunt he did unless they like investigated vowels and learned she'd revive and convert upon death and decided to get town to lynch her so they didn't have to waste an nk killing her and they decided tiki was the most expendable player to carry out this plan but this seems incredibly convoluted and not likely even I wouldn't do this as mafia.
I have a couple suspicions at this point but I'm also kind of?????? about this game especially now that an extra person is mafia who wasn't I just think you're all mafia now sorry.
I am pretty sure the revive/convert has nothing to do with the mason role, however.
Tiki is pretty clearly a mortician. Interesting. Who even looks at dead bodies? Idol research? Tiki are you Hanayo.
Okay, let's try this again: Either Town had two stunners with one not being a dedicated one, or the mafia has a role power that swaps two people roles between each other.
IF the latter, that means we should assume that mafia has one stun that was originally theirs, and a stun that's... um... investigative.
Also, that they have plot's original role on one of their members as well while he has theirs.
Posts : 446 Location : Spirits and Such Consultation Office Humor : Greatest Psychic of the 21st Century
Mafia Stats Games Hosted: 0 Games Played: 10
I actually haven't heard Shunjou Romantic before. /wide eyes...
And to answer Ninfia's question, I'm voting for Vowels for both of those reasons. I think Tiki's being truthful about his results since it seems like a difficult role to fake. I can see a town player bringing up results that might be potentially wrong, but mafia needs to know they can reliably fake them for ratio reasons (e.g., Cure saying we could lynch him if he's wrong). While being truthful and having incorrect results aren't mutually exclusive, I'm leaning toward Tiki having correct results. I'd feel so sorry for Tiki if they were wrong, lmao.
Regardless, I'm certain he's town unless mafia decided to recruit him... which isn't very beneficial when he led a lynch on someone who looks town, lol. -- omg at Cure's convoluted theory. That'd be super intense... Not to mention it doesn't seem worth it since mafia could easily lose a member as soon as they gain one if things don't work out.
Oh yeah, I just realized something while going over the actions list. If mafia used one of my original abilities, they did it before I received a present. /rubs chin
I think the only people who have voted so far are Cure, Sammie, and I? (This sentence feels so strange... subject complements trip me up.)
@Sammie Can you explain your vote on Duck? Last day phase you said you thought his vote on Ninfia was weird before switching over to Vowels because of Tiki's behavior. Do you have anything else to add?
@Tiki Whom do you think you'll vote for? :Oc Duck? Vowels? Bueller?
We have a lot of time until rollover, but I'll be busy again starting tomorrow, so I'm trying to make the most of today, lol. the more i edit this post, the more weird it feels. maybe i need to focus less on editing so i can work up the nerve to post.
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