So, I saw Deo make a comment about speculating where the traps are, and, since he's our friendly B&B ghost, I think people didn't quite notice that comment. I find it intriguing since we can fairly safely say that there's only one trap currently in play. All nights except for N1 have seen a failed attempt, meaning mafia were either locked up, hit a locked up room, or hit a paired up room (man what are the odds, though?).
So in this regard, we have one trap that I think will expire after the events of N3.
Based off of existing information, we know that, if everyone has been honest, then rooms 18, 19, 22, 26, 1, and 3 cannot have the trap in them. I will also say that I was in room 6 on N1 to better the count. So that's 7 / 27 rooms we publicly know to probably be without traps.
But, this got me thinking.
We have a bunch of proposed pairings of players, and no one has contradicted them. However, one variable that has not been mentioned is that we have
no way of guaranteeing that there aren't mafia in two separate rooms that lie and say they're in the same room as one another, since that seems to be part of how we rule people out of having sent in the NK.
The risk with this ploy is that the mafia would not be able to guarantee there isn't someone that knows where other players spend the night, and it seems like there might be one such role given how Kotakia's role seems to function. Additionally, mafia doubling up (whether truthful or not) makes the game riskier for town since there's more unclaimed rooms that might be trapped. The main argument against this idea is that mafia have been thwarted twice now, and there's only been a locked room and 3-4 buddied rooms each night. Lower the count of faux mafia pairings, and that's almost unbelievably lucky for town. There may also still be some hidden roles out there that prevent NKs. We don't know.
However, I do think there's a feasible chance that mafia have paired up overnight as a way to guarantee no town will be in that room, and also as an alibi--and regardless of whether it's the truth or a lie, having two mafia in one room is a pretty solid alibi considering how we've been clearing players of suspicion (at least for the NK) based off of that fact.
This was just something that crossed my mind. The key point, I think, rests in the possibility of mafia lying about buddying up for alibi purposes.
Now, we have essentially three confirmed town in Ardonye, Kiyoko, and Drandahl. I don't want to necessarily
say others are confirmed, but I do think Kotakia is almost assuredly town, and I believe Alcasync, the perennial town, can be included in that discussion--but we don't have any actual proof for the latter beyond attitude and tendencies.
So what pairings have we had:
N2
Tiki the Troll + Ardonye
Deo + Mr. Alice
T3tsuya + ???
Luxaria + AliceofOz
N1
Chinomi + ???
Alcasync + Drandahl
Kotakia + Ardonye
Eleni + T3tsuya
N0
Chinomi + ???
Plotstickers + Deo
Kiyoko + Ardonye
Going by the previous list, that leaves...
Deo + Mr. Alice (N2) (Mr. Alice
may be town given how everything has panned out, but it's not certain)
T3tsuya + ??? (N2)
Luxaria + AliceofOz (N2)
Chinomi + ??? (N1)
Eleni + T3tsuya (N1)
Chinomi + ??? (N0)
Plotstickers + Deo (N0)
I know I'm town and if you knew my role you would be inclined to believe me as well. That leaves Deo, possibly Mr. Alice, T3tsuya, Chinomi, Plotstickers, Eleni, and a few unverified roommates as possible
"known" rooms of double mafia.
From this list, there are several things to note. First, quite a few people have not claimed to be roommates with another player. This can be interpretted several ways.
1)If one player is mafia and lied about having a roommate, then no one could claim (other than another mafia). However, this relies on the idea that not all the players would claim rooms. Not an unreasonable gambit.
2)If one player is mafia and the other is town and the mafia doesn't wish to back the town's claims to make them look scummy.
3)If there's a town that hasn't claimed because they are scared of the boogie man.
There's probably some other options, but I listed those out to prove a point that the silence is not indicative of one's alignment. That said.
I'm very intrigued by Alcasync's vote, because Chinomi does stand out for both her votes, behavior, and that no one has commented on rooming with her yet. One thing that tends to strike me funny is when a player latches onto someone or something that feels confirmed town (like a message sender) and uses it to say, "See? This clearly means I am town!" Correct me if I am wrong, Chinomi, but so far your entire alibi has been that unknown persons have been in your room, you got locked in, and that you received a message. Your argument in favor of being town feels so weak to me:
Chinomi wrote:for instance, the whole plot incident. if i were mafia there's no way in heck i would come forward with information about someone with a power that is pretty clearly pro-town. plot even had a vote on them when i brought the information up. why would i discourage people from voting them if i weren't town?
Chinomi wrote:the message itself leads me to believe she's town because she gave away her identity by what she put for her message
Chinomi wrote:let's suppose for a moment that the message sending role was mafia (which it could be but) why would she send it to me giving away her identity if she were mafia? that seems really townie to me.
Chinomi wrote:BUT IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE THAT SHE'D REVEAL HERSELF LIKE THAT IF SHE WERE MAFIA she'd probably want to focus on sending out messages to townies to fool them instead of an in joke to me revealing her identity
So first, your entire reasoning against a scenario where you're town and Plotstickers is mafia is that she wouldn't use the message, which is player-targeted, to reveal herself to you. Except... as mafia, she'd be doing no harm by going to someone she would know to be town and trying to get on their good side. Because now you're backing her solely off of that fact, and people in general believe the message sender role to be a pro-town role. If she were mafia and had the role (and actually has it; you two could both be mafia and lying about it?), she has effectively built an alibi for herself off of that one move.
It can go more in-depth with better logic, but the take-away is that you immediately tried to establish Plotstickers as town--which isn't a bad thing if you're town, but I don't think it's a negative if you're mafia, either.
You proposed that since she
has to be town as a result, then her sending you the message makes you town just because you shared it with the thread. What? Why wouldn't mafia in your position come forward with information that Plotstickers is pro-town? I can think of a scenario, and it's what you're doing right now: Your entire case for being town, as far as you've expressed, is that a pro-town role sent you a message identifying themself, and that you
can't be mafia because if you were you wouldn't reveal a town. So you're creating your own logic to back up the case, as well as immediately jumping on it as a case for being town.
Tl;dr:
Vote: ChinomiI think there's a good chance of one or both of Chinomi and Plotstickers are mafia. I want to see Chinomi defend herself in a way that isn't based off of Plotstickers sending her a message in a bottle.
@ Plotstickers:
Why did you send Chinomi a message? What did it say beyond a Frozen reference, if anything at all?
@ Chinomi + Chinomi roommates:
Speak up about who Chinomi supposedly roomed with both nights.
((I rambled and meandered a bit. I'll update the list shortly.))
Edits: I forgot about Ninfia's supposed room count role, which
might preclude mafia from lying about doubling up rooms in previous phases--but not about doubling up and claiming solo rooms instead. Hmmm. Ninfia suggests 12 rooms had occupants. So far we have 4 claimed pairings.
Ninfia, does your tally go off before or after Kiyoko died? Do you know?
If Kiyoko was alive and counted, then that means with current counts:
10 solo rooms, 4 paired rooms: 14 rooms occupied
If Kiyoko was dead and did not count, then that means with current counts:
9 solo rooms, 4 paired rooms: 13 rooms occupied
So I'm guessing it counts while she's technically alive? Which means two room pairs haven't claimed yet. Unless there's someone that can squeeze into a room with two other people, and Kiyoko counted as being alive.
9 solo rooms, 3 paired rooms, 1 paired room with spectator: 12 rooms occupied
Edit 2: Modified roommate situation following Ardonye's post.