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Cry Wolf

Cry Wolf is a brand new forum focused on the forum version of the deception game Mafia/Werewolves

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welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4]

+16
chinomi
Kotakia
deo
eleni
plotstickers
drandahl
Cthulhuhoop
T3tsuya
Rasei
Tiki The Troll
Mr. Alice
alcasync
AliceofOz
Sammiya
Kiyoko
nautilus
20 posters

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556welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:37 pm

Mr. Alice

Mr. Alice

cough coughs

(jk tho this isn't really directed at u tiki, it's just 4 fun)

557welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:42 pm

Ninfia

Ninfia
Admin

My phone says that video is invaluable ;0; also while I'm here wasti g my battery is like to say that I 100% do not think g that the room destroying thing is neutral or town. That is defs a maf ability imo.

Also if I'm counting right, it seems like 12 rooms were occupied last night but idk where people were or what have you.

Of note: I tried to move to room 26 but it was locked. Meaning that I was in room 3 last night but I actually have no idea if I was alone tbh. Shrugs for days. That's about all I know and my phone is d y I n g

http://www.ninfia.tumblr.com

558welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:50 pm

nautilus

nautilus

nautilus wrote:
nautilus wrote:
Kiyoko wrote:

stoat alley.













chinomi: II

high seraph vs.
Luxaria vs. chinomi
Sammiya vs.
AliceofOz vs.
alcasync vs. chinomi
Mr. Alice vs.
T3tsuya vs.
Tiki the Troll vs.
Rasei vs.
plotstickers vs.
eleni vs.
deo vs.
chinomi vs.
Ardonye vs.
Ninfia vs.
Kotakia vs.

As an aside, Kiyoko will be performing secondary duties of stoat tallying while I'm catchin' some z's.

I've also been slowly updating the first page!



Last edited by nautilus on Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:49 pm; edited 4 times in total

559welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:08 pm

Mr. Alice

Mr. Alice

fia, i will sing it 4 u

ahem


ok i hope you psychically got that or something because it was a stellar performance on my part

EDIT: oh god, today's a voting day man i'm bad at these

560welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:44 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

So, I saw Deo make a comment about speculating where the traps are, and, since he's our friendly B&B ghost, I think people didn't quite notice that comment. I find it intriguing since we can fairly safely say that there's only one trap currently in play. All nights except for N1 have seen a failed attempt, meaning mafia were either locked up, hit a locked up room, or hit a paired up room (man what are the odds, though?).

So in this regard, we have one trap that I think will expire after the events of N3.

Based off of existing information, we know that, if everyone has been honest, then rooms 18, 19, 22, 26, 1, and 3 cannot have the trap in them. I will also say that I was in room 6 on N1 to better the count. So that's 7 / 27 rooms we publicly know to probably be without traps.

But, this got me thinking.

We have a bunch of proposed pairings of players, and no one has contradicted them. However, one variable that has not been mentioned is that we have no way of guaranteeing that there aren't mafia in two separate rooms that lie and say they're in the same room as one another, since that seems to be part of how we rule people out of having sent in the NK.

The risk with this ploy is that the mafia would not be able to guarantee there isn't someone that knows where other players spend the night, and it seems like there might be one such role given how Kotakia's role seems to function. Additionally, mafia doubling up (whether truthful or not) makes the game riskier for town since there's more unclaimed rooms that might be trapped. The main argument against this idea is that mafia have been thwarted twice now, and there's only been a locked room and 3-4 buddied rooms each night. Lower the count of faux mafia pairings, and that's almost unbelievably lucky for town. There may also still be some hidden roles out there that prevent NKs. We don't know.

However, I do think there's a feasible chance that mafia have paired up overnight as a way to guarantee no town will be in that room, and also as an alibi--and regardless of whether it's the truth or a lie, having two mafia in one room is a pretty solid alibi considering how we've been clearing players of suspicion (at least for the NK) based off of that fact.

This was just something that crossed my mind. The key point, I think, rests in the possibility of mafia lying about buddying up for alibi purposes.

Now, we have essentially three confirmed town in Ardonye, Kiyoko, and Drandahl. I don't want to necessarily say others are confirmed, but I do think Kotakia is almost assuredly town, and I believe Alcasync, the perennial town, can be included in that discussion--but we don't have any actual proof for the latter beyond attitude and tendencies.

So what pairings have we had:

N2
Tiki the Troll + Ardonye
Deo + Mr. Alice
T3tsuya + ???
Luxaria + AliceofOz

N1
Chinomi + ???
Alcasync + Drandahl
Kotakia + Ardonye
Eleni + T3tsuya

N0
Chinomi + ???
Plotstickers + Deo
Kiyoko + Ardonye

Going by the previous list, that leaves...
Deo + Mr. Alice (N2) (Mr. Alice may be town given how everything has panned out, but it's not certain)
T3tsuya + ??? (N2)
Luxaria + AliceofOz (N2)
Chinomi + ??? (N1)
Eleni + T3tsuya (N1)
Chinomi + ??? (N0)
Plotstickers + Deo (N0)

I know I'm town and if you knew my role you would be inclined to believe me as well. That leaves Deo, possibly Mr. Alice, T3tsuya, Chinomi, Plotstickers, Eleni, and a few unverified roommates as possible "known" rooms of double mafia.

From this list, there are several things to note. First, quite a few people have not claimed to be roommates with another player. This can be interpretted several ways.

1)
If one player is mafia and lied about having a roommate, then no one could claim (other than another mafia). However, this relies on the idea that not all the players would claim rooms. Not an unreasonable gambit.

2)
If one player is mafia and the other is town and the mafia doesn't wish to back the town's claims to make them look scummy.

3)
If there's a town that hasn't claimed because they are scared of the boogie man.

There's probably some other options, but I listed those out to prove a point that the silence is not indicative of one's alignment. That said.

I'm very intrigued by Alcasync's vote, because Chinomi does stand out for both her votes, behavior, and that no one has commented on rooming with her yet. One thing that tends to strike me funny is when a player latches onto someone or something that feels confirmed town (like a message sender) and uses it to say, "See? This clearly means I am town!" Correct me if I am wrong, Chinomi, but so far your entire alibi has been that unknown persons have been in your room, you got locked in, and that you received a message. Your argument in favor of being town feels so weak to me:

Chinomi wrote:for instance, the whole plot incident. if i were mafia there's no way in heck i would come forward with information about someone with a power that is pretty clearly pro-town. plot even had a vote on them when i brought the information up. why would i discourage people from voting them if i weren't town?

Chinomi wrote:the message itself leads me to believe she's town because she gave away her identity by what she put for her message

Chinomi wrote:let's suppose for a moment that the message sending role was mafia (which it could be but) why would she send it to me giving away her identity if she were mafia? that seems really townie to me.

Chinomi wrote:BUT IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE THAT SHE'D REVEAL HERSELF LIKE THAT IF SHE WERE MAFIA she'd probably want to focus on sending out messages to townies to fool them instead of an in joke to me revealing her identity

So first, your entire reasoning against a scenario where you're town and Plotstickers is mafia is that she wouldn't use the message, which is player-targeted, to reveal herself to you. Except... as mafia, she'd be doing no harm by going to someone she would know to be town and trying to get on their good side. Because now you're backing her solely off of that fact, and people in general believe the message sender role to be a pro-town role. If she were mafia and had the role (and actually has it; you two could both be mafia and lying about it?), she has effectively built an alibi for herself off of that one move.

It can go more in-depth with better logic, but the take-away is that you immediately tried to establish Plotstickers as town--which isn't a bad thing if you're town, but I don't think it's a negative if you're mafia, either.

You proposed that since she has to be town as a result, then her sending you the message makes you town just because you shared it with the thread. What? Why wouldn't mafia in your position come forward with information that Plotstickers is pro-town? I can think of a scenario, and it's what you're doing right now: Your entire case for being town, as far as you've expressed, is that a pro-town role sent you a message identifying themself, and that you can't be mafia because if you were you wouldn't reveal a town. So you're creating your own logic to back up the case, as well as immediately jumping on it as a case for being town.

Tl;dr:

Vote: Chinomi

I think there's a good chance of one or both of Chinomi and Plotstickers are mafia. I want to see Chinomi defend herself in a way that isn't based off of Plotstickers sending her a message in a bottle.

@ Plotstickers:
Why did you send Chinomi a message? What did it say beyond a Frozen reference, if anything at all?

@ Chinomi + Chinomi roommates:
Speak up about who Chinomi supposedly roomed with both nights.


((I rambled and meandered a bit. I'll update the list shortly.))




Edits: I forgot about Ninfia's supposed room count role, which might preclude mafia from lying about doubling up rooms in previous phases--but not about doubling up and claiming solo rooms instead. Hmmm. Ninfia suggests 12 rooms had occupants. So far we have 4 claimed pairings.

Ninfia, does your tally go off before or after Kiyoko died? Do you know?

If Kiyoko was alive and counted, then that means with current counts:
10 solo rooms, 4 paired rooms: 14 rooms occupied

If Kiyoko was dead and did not count, then that means with current counts:
9 solo rooms, 4 paired rooms: 13 rooms occupied

So I'm guessing it counts while she's technically alive? Which means two room pairs haven't claimed yet. Unless there's someone that can squeeze into a room with two other people, and Kiyoko counted as being alive.
9 solo rooms, 3 paired rooms, 1 paired room with spectator: 12 rooms occupied

Edit 2: Modified roommate situation following Ardonye's post.



Last edited by Luxaria on Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:39 pm; edited 3 times in total

561welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:57 pm

Mr. Alice

Mr. Alice

wait sorry real quick question--what's the third list of?

562welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:06 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

Link to the 24a Role List

What we know so far:

Room Claims:

Roles that Exist:

D3 Vote Timestamps:

D2 Vote Timestamps:



Last edited by Luxaria on Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:38 pm; edited 2 times in total

563welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:11 pm

Ardonye

Ardonye

I'M AWAKE. Also noooo Kiyoko!
Spoiler:

chinomi wrote:if i were mafia there's no way in heck i would come forward with information about someone with a power that is pretty clearly pro-town. plot even had a vote on them when i brought the information up. why would i discourage people from voting them if i weren't town?
a) I think the mafia would possibly come forward with this information, if only to make themselves seem town by association.

b)There were other candidates that were town (and possibly town) that were up for getting lynched? I feel like the mafia would not find a message-sending town role to be a threat considering the power relies on their ability to discern who they think is town in order to use it effectively. This is of course, going off the fact that plot is town and not neutral or mafia.

At the moment I'm leaning towards voting for chinomi based on past suspicion, but I won't just yet because I've only just caught up on the posts. I would like some time to go through other potential candidates for lynch, probably after I'm more awake + with breakfast.

Luxaria wrote:We have a bunch of proposed pairings of players, and no one has contradicted them. However, one variable that has not been mentioned is that we have no way of guaranteeing that there aren't mafia in two separate rooms that lie and say they're in the same room as one another, since that seems to be part of how we rule people out of having sent in the NK.
Since I've been cleared as town, I can pretty much confirm that everyone I've roomed with has actually been with me.

On that note, I just want to say that Tiki the Troll was my roomie last night.


ALSO I shall re-read the posts about the role with room destroying powers every two nights and the sacrificial lamb stuff later because WOW I'm so confused about them and I'll need to sort that out in my mind.

http://ardonye.tumblr.com

564welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:11 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

@ Mr. Alice:

Which one? This?

Luxaria wrote:That leaves Tiki the Troll, Deo, possibly Mr. Alice, T3tsuya, Chinomi, Plotstickers, Eleni, and a few unverified roommates as possible "known" rooms of double mafia.

If so, that list was comprised of players that claimed or were claimed as being roommates that did not have one of the few confirmed town in their room (Ardonye, Drandahl, Kiyoko). The purpose of this list was to highlight how, if mafia were lying about having roommates, these people would be possible suspects.

But Ninfia's post might invalidate that. I forgot she could count occupied rooms. I don't know, my head is spinning from tracking these lists and making my last post.

565welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:16 pm

deo

deo

okay i have some deep backreading to do but BLESS UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU LUXARIA that was pretty much what I wanted people to get at omg srsly bless this post

anyway yeah i'll post more stuff in a bit hopefully so brb :ghost:

566welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:26 pm

Tiki The Troll

Tiki The Troll

Ardonye wrote:On that note, I just want to say that Tiki the Troll was my roomie last night.

I've decided I like you as well.

This forum is awesome.

567welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:32 pm

alcasync

alcasync

I'm not fully caught up but if it helps, the trap is not in room 22 because that's where drandahl and I were.

568welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:38 pm

Mr. Alice

Mr. Alice

oh uh, this one, sorry:

Luxaria wrote:Going by the previous list, that leaves...
Deo + Mr. Alice (N2) (Mr. Alice may be town given how everything has panned out, but it's not certain)
T3tsuya + ??? (N2)
Luxaria + AliceofOz (N2)
Chinomi + ??? (N1)
Eleni + T3tsuya (N1)
Chinomi + ??? (N0)
Plotstickers + Deo (N0)

i'm gettin a little mixed up with rooming and mafia pairs, whoof @@

569welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:42 pm

Ninfia

Ninfia
Admin

okay! I'm back on a computer and wow where the fuck do I even start. There is so much to speculate on and I'm feeling pretty wiped out for an incredibly busy day.

to address the question: Room 4 was not included on my list, so that's 12 rooms not including Kiyo.

http://www.ninfia.tumblr.com

570welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] - Page 38 Empty Re: welcome to the b & b [PART 1: N0-N4] Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:56 pm

Luxaria

Luxaria

That was the list of every claimed pairing on Nights 0, 1, and 2, with Ardonye, Kiyoko, and Drandahl pairings excluded.

I later omitted myself and AliceofOz because I am town and can vouch for my room being accurate, though I suppose you have no reason to believe me beyond my statement that my role ability is definitively town.

Also, since I didn't address this earlier, I agree with a lot of both what Alcasync and T3tsuya have to say regarding Mr. Alice's role and alignment, and I don't want us to sweep this under the rug, as I suspected might happen and suggested previously.

I'd like to point out that I believe we'll be seeing another silence tomorrow, since we didn't see one N0, so that says to me it's probably an every-other-night type ability. If that's the case, we run the real risk of Mr. Alice getting silenced again, thus thwarting our investigation of them even longer.

I do think that the copying role sounds more town or neutral leaning than mafia, just as the vigilante/summoning role Kotakia mentioned sounds kind of scum-neutral, if it isn't mafia. I would also imagine that the argument of balance is accurate: Cthuluhoop is a stickler for balance, and he helped Nautilus a lot, and Nautilus spent basically a week guaranteeing this setup wasn't one-sided. I do feel like giving mafia potential access to another targeted vigilante kill might be... bad? It's difficult to say, I guess.

I'm not the biggest fan of an unknown having a gun. That said, considering we've seen one vigilante go off, and another died from a lynch, I don't know... I think it's unlikely for there to be a third or fourth? Maybe? So if the shot went off on a bad target, or one that town (namely, the confirmed town) didn't suggest, Mr. Alice looks scummy. That said, mafia might have another kill (especially if the one last night was actually neutral) and could use it to frame her.

Ugh.

Hmm. Kotakia did note that she wasn't sure if the vigilante/summon role could decide which rooms to destroy. If they can't, it's probably more likely a neutral role (but killing Kiyoko is so scummy...). If they can, it does sound more mafia leaning. I have reservations as to whether or not it's an unaffiliated role, since as Tiki did say, I could see someone (neutral, namely) selecting Kiyoko as their sacrificial lamb, and if Kiyoko ever died then they'd summon their crazy beast.

That said, the flavor text Kotakia shared seems to indicate that this is all exclusive to one role. I don't know, man.

@ Mr. Alice:

Tell me more. Can you fire your Hunter shot during either phase? Does the action resolve as soon as you send it in, or does it resolve at rollover?

You target a player with it, correct?

Is it one-use?

Do you have this role for the rest of the game? And will it be your only role?

Is there anything else you can tell us?

I'll give you delicious banana and chocolate chip pancakes if you answer! ^_^ <33

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