I sincerely expected to come back to the thread looking at my own post from a few hours ago. Wow.
Luxaria wrote:GOOD LORD BIG POST
This was stupid insightful and just the kind of speculation I was hoping would get going today. We now have something to go off of that we didn't before, and in my mind it's a little safer to build upon this than the perpetual uncertainty of the Mr Alice situation. Let me clarify a few things about this post, and Mr Alice we're going to get back to the situation with you in a second.
To add to room arrangement based speculation in the future, I feel it's very important to remember Naut's page 1 post
Certain roles may not count towards the room limit and allow for 3 players to be in a room together. Players with these roles will be informed about these loopholes.
Certain roles may not count toward the room limit.
Roles. In the plural.
Additionally I think we do have to remember when speculating based on this that no matter what the case is, only one singular person in maf needs to be alone for a NK to be attempted. The rest of Maf could very well integrate themselves with town rooms the best they can based on previous singular people claiming they were in a room alone. (Rasei N0, Kotakia N0, Luxaria N1, Ninfia N1) for both security from kill effects and for plausible deniability. Unless they had an ability that demanded they move rooms, they could easily hang out with town based on speculated room positions.
So what I'm saying from this is I think we need to be looking for people who were specifically not willing to or cannot confirm their room placement on nights where that single person missing obviously caused trouble. (Last night, the phase the trap was set. Etc etc.) And as a guideline for lynching, not a rule. Because
we know that, if everyone has been honest, then rooms 18, 19, 22, 26, 1, and 3 cannot have the trap in them
it's never that cut and dry in mafia.
I feel this becomes another situation in which we have to be inside Mafia's head like with Mr Alice, and we just can't do that for sure. I personally think maf would have been more defensive and willing to group up due to the fact that this is a game with unexpected roles that could possibly out the fact they're lying about their room placement.
I feel that this is backed up by the staggering fact no one has been hit by maf yet outside of that possibly maf affiliated targeted role last night. (I still think it was a neutral role as no neutral role has come forward to contest that.)
It means it is most likely there's been a lot of empty rooms and the failed NKs we've seen were likely due to being bounced out.
And so for reasons I feel will be apparent to those who enjoy speculating super hard.
Night 0: Tiki was in a room with eleni
Night 2: Tiki was in a room with Ardonye
These are facts. I don't know the numbers. But due to Ardonye posting up what he posted up I am 1000% sure he is Town.
On ChinomiWhen she posted up about the note I really didn't understand what she meant by "a message", which is why I asked her at the time. That ended up being overshadowed by the Alice situation and other suspicions for me fairly quickly after that. Lux discerned and summed up everything in a way I couldn't in that post and I seriously do not see the fault in any of it. Chinomi instantly tried to establish both her and plotstickers as town based on something that, by it's nature, could not be corroborated by anybody. And backed it up by shaky logic that could only be traced back to herself.
As someone who is extremely well versed in constructing their own tower of BS and then living in it as Mafia. This seems pretty clear to me.
VOTE: chinomi unless she can pull the most convincing evidence ever out of nowhere tonight.
I seriously want to hear more from plotstickers about this as well.
Mr. Alice wrote:OK
OK
OK OK OK
I HECKED UP
I HECKED UP REALLY BAD
...
just your standard invisible bullet thing
Alright. This is getting a little ridiculous. If, at this point, Mr Alice is mafia we would know who made the vig kill and then we can lynch her for doing it. I think right now we have more obvious and safe leads to go off of than this because even if she is maf, she can't do anything relating to her power without us demolishing her for doing it. I am starting to believe that maybe Mr Alice is just really
that scummy in normal play. I am electing to learn from the last game where I burned down the entire house to take down one incredibly scummy lead and I'm letting go of this
for nowin lieu of better information.
But I seriously vote to keep an eye on Alice for the rest of the game regardless.
And for the love of god please explain "INVISIBLE BULLET"
Now time for me to respond to all the posts I missed while writing this one.